The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Peters wouldn’t even be here, tbh. 

 

 

Damn, dude, great deduction!

 

I never even considered that, but you're probably right.

 

Having the second overall pick in a draft with three potential franchise qbs had to be a huge factor in his choosing us and in DQ being interested as well.

 

Wow, what a difference a single missed field goal can have for a franchise.

 

Edited March 30 by CommanderInTheRye

[DogofWar1]

What's the old adage?  Those that can't do teach, those that can't teach become ESPN/youtube analysts?

[Llevron]

3 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Chase Daniel is a flat out bad analyst.  It makes sense that he would like Jayden and miss all of his flaws because he's spent the last six months growing increasingly shrill in his love for Justin Fields.  The quick answer is that you can't rely on these kinds of decontextualized and incomplete videos from analysts to form your takes.  The format where they highlight and discuss just a handful of plays (necessary for producing watchable content) is bad at showing tendencies and playing styles.  Last year I got lazy and didn't watch as many games or cut ups and started relying on these kinds of analysts to form takes, and that's how I ended up convinced Tyree Wilson was the next Willie McGinest despite my gut reaction from watching him live and in a few cut ups being that he was nothing special.  The hit rate for these analysts isn't great, even when they are really knowledgeable and impressive at overanalyzing film, so you might as well form your own raw takes.  Their content can be good for first learning what to watch for, but you have to go further than they do.

 

In order to identify a player's style/tendencies, you have to watch a ton of them and see how they play the game at an instinctive level.  What do they do as a routine, and what do they default to when the script fails or they face duress?  The only way I can present evidence of Jayden's tendencies and style at a standard that would be convincing is to chart his games.  That's like 15-20 hours of work just for this season alone, I'm not doing that, and the product wouldn't be readable content anyway.  And after you watch enough players and games, you don't really have to do that any more to form reliable gestalts.  But here are some keys to look for when you want to analyze a player's vision/processing, awareness, and arm talent.  And remember, you are judging these by an NFL standard.  Keeping that NFL standard in mind is tricky, but critical for assessing translation. 

 

If you want to assess a QB's vision or processing, you need to look for how often he gets stuck on reads.  Does he hesitate to make decisions or is he decisive and consistently throws with anticipation?  Does he often find receivers who uncover late?  Does he make that process look easy and natural?  Does he look comfortable creating from the pocket?  Does he make throws all over the field?

 

Pocket feel/awareness: does he read pressure well?  Can he do it and adjust his drop without looking at the rush?  Does he generally maintain space to throw.  Does he play with urgency and an accurate mental clock?  When he takes off does he navigate trash well?  Does he run into blocks or tackles?

 

Arm talent: remember, you're judging this by an NFL standard.  An average NFL arm can throw it deep and stick deep outs on a rope.  Above average means doing special things, like off balance downfield throws to the field-side hash.  Driving throws when you don't have space to step into them.  Driving second and third level throws with loft to clear middle zone defenders while maintaining velocity/rotation.  Throwing the ball downfield without "loading up" for it.  Throwing deep balls late and without having to put a ton of air under them.

I’m selfish so I want you to do a game for me. But I know that’s not worth your time really. I hesitate to say I would pay you to do it but that’s probably still not work you wanna do at the end of the day. But I’m really curious. 
 

I appreciate the tips though. 

[CapsSkins]

27 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

I'm sorry what would you like me to do with the bolded? People can think I'm wrong, that is totally within their right, just as I can think they are. I don't actually pay that close attention to who interacts with whom on here (nor do I care enough to pay attention that closely to be honest).

Of all the things you have said or claimed that I disagree with, this is the one I disagree with the most. 😉

 

Welcome back!

[SoCalSkins]

3 hours ago, Llevron said:

If I could find this tweeter in real life I would tell them/they that this is a lazy comparison. RG3 NEVER ran a pro offense and even ended his NFL career with less than half of the processing speed of JD today. 
 

I would also tell him that taking the time to make calculations for having an “NFL Oline” and WRs but not making mention of the NFL defenses he is playing (very well) against shows his bias. 
 

If only I could fine this tweeter! 
 

 

The eloquence and depth of that tweet to be able to bring that much shade in so few characters is beyond impressive. That dude is some sort of genius. 
 

Bust

Skinny

wont finish a season

helicopter mom/Karen

impending future leaks/whining

NCAA rules violations 

lack of integrity 

complicated ASU exit

 

All in a single tweet. Bravo unknown tweeter!

[redskinss]

11 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

What? The original discussion was about Fields vs Daniels in college. Why is what he has done in the NFL even relevant when they were being discussed as prospects? 

 

Because if all you are willing to acknowledge is college tape then why bother making comps at all?

 

You're defeating the entire purpose by ending the comp before we've discussed what those traits translated to in the nfl.

 

If you want to debate who was the better runner in college and end it there then yes daniels was better but the entire purpose of the exercise of grading prospects is trying to see how it translates and you have to use fields nfl tape to do that, there's no way around it.

 

It'd be like comparing mcarthy to Brady and suggesting mcarthy is better than Brady because his college tape is considerably better and then when there's obvious pushback just keep saying, " I said Mcarthy was better in college and he was I don't see what's so confusing"

[Llevron]

like seriously y’all do a draft mock every year why can’t we pick a few of y’all to do a film breakdown on a game for each of these guys? 
 

Obviously if you have the time. But we could vote on who has what player. Then vote on a game (maybe even use stats to determine a good game and a bad one) and then break them down. We could have a ES YouTube page and everything. I can see y’all doing that every year. Vote for a position group and get to it. 
 

edit: and it wouldn’t even be that much work (for me, who will do nothing but donate money lol) 

Edited March 30 by Llevron

[88Comrade2000]

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

I liked Haskins coming out. Didn’t want us to trade up for him but I was OK we took him. He had the tools.

 

He played well late his rookie year when O’Connell was given the keys to the offense. I wanted us to keep KOC as OC and thought Haskins had a chance. I totally got why we passed on QBs that next draft. 

 

Didnt work out. In hindsight what doomed Haskins was between his ears - he just wasn’t wired to want to be great and to put the work in to be a great NFL QB. It’s that ‘want to’ and the desire that drives guys to work incredibly hard and demand that from everyone around them that will determine which, if any, of the QBs in this draft become great.

 

Both Maye and Daniels have the skill set to be All Pros. Figuring out what’s between their ears is key.

Besides not wanting to work, he was sorely lacking between the ears. That deficiency is what caused him to make that decision that took his life.

 

 

I’m pretty sure, our group won’t make that type of decision.

[Llevron]

Just now, 88Comrade2000 said:

Besides not wanting to work, he was sorely lacking between the ears. That deficiency is what caused him to make that decision that took his life.

 

 

I’m pretty sure, our group won’t make that type of decision.

This is such an ugly post. You don’t know what was going on in that man’s life when he died for real. 

[Warhead36]

Haskins wasn't a serious prospect. Even our braindead at the time regime didn't actually have him as a 1st round pick. He was the owner's choice. He's one of the biggest examples of why college production means eff all. 50 TDs but he was basically just throwing to wide open guys and let em run.

Edited March 30 by Warhead36

[Going Commando]

14 minutes ago, Llevron said:

I’m selfish so I want you to do a game for me. But I know that’s not worth your time really. I hesitate to say I would pay you to do it but that’s probably still not work you wanna do at the end of the day. But I’m really curious. 
 

I appreciate the tips though. 

 

My take is not even close to good enough to pay for, trust me.  And a game won't be enough evidence to demonstrate a tendency.  That's something that really only becomes clear over a long period of time.  But I might do a game.  We have a few weeks to kill before the draft and it's always a good idea to go back to cut ups late in the process, as arguments tend to get too off-field driven and abstract.

[Jumbo]

2 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

I don't understand why people don't see why teams care less about 2022. Mac Jones had a very good rookie year and took the Patriots to the playoffs and nobody cares about that now, just 2 years later. This is very much a "what have you done for me lately" league.

 

Sam Howell had a great 2020 and was talked about everywhere before his final season as a surefire 1st round pick...then his final year happened and nobody cares about that tape from the year before. It was all about his most recent tape. 

 

Nobody cared about Burrow's tape besides his final season - there are a ton of examples.

 

Per your opening point, of course it's a "what have you done lately" league in many circumstances but it's dependent on specific contexts as to whether a longer history than "lately" also matters in making some decisions.

 

And if two or three years ago  doesn't matter in the pros, wouldn't it not matter to some degrees in top college programs? Wouldn't only the "recent tape" matter? 

 

 I ask because you spend so many words on what college players did two and three years back, and even go back to highschool, to make your cases.

 

The rest of what I'm going to put now is going to be about certain aspects of your posting here and  about this forum. So many of you may want to skip all this. 😛

 

Though you've arrived very recently, you have quickly shown no hesitation to be dismissive or somewhat demeaning to posters who disagree with you in reasonable manner and to also demean the forum conversation as a whole. Those are moves you are not executing in a way that is ok.

 

You're also pretty argumentive fairly often.

 

Based on those choices of yours I'm going to proceed somewhat bluntly and as though you're not too thin-skinned.

 

You imbue an unmerited arrogance in a fair amount of your posting. If it was more merited and less frequent  I'd be less inclined to mention it. The intellect and analytical competence you display in your posts isn't that advanced compared to others, nor is your use of data that impressive.

 

That's ok, but don't conduct yourself hete like you're head and shoulders above others here because so far you're JAG who burst on the scene with a fire hose of links. 🙂

 

We typically get a handful of newcomers here this time of year who are big time college football fans. They usually arrive with strong biases about schools (especially if they're alums) and conferences and of course players. We get a few outright "fanboys" too. Few usually stay very long after the draft unless their guy got picked. That's all fine.

 

But this is a board for pro football fans, obviously, specifically, for longtime diehard commanders fans.

 

We do have a number of college fans here who will talk all throughout the year in a thread for the next year's draft, and of course during the draft itself we have threads like this where the doors are thrown wide open to figure and guess who we might take.

 

But it's a pro ball forum. We're Commanders fans first, nfl pro ball next, and that's it.

 

We have other forums, of which only two besides this one are really used much these days, but we don't even offer a college ball forum.

 

I'd also suggest that if you want to do best in this community it would benefit you to pay attention to how people interact here, something you just said you aren't interested in.🙂

 

 

I love all the college material going to making as informed a choice of "who to root for" us getting as I can (and that's all it's good for).

 

But of course I really only care about what they can do on this team in the pro ball game once they get here.

 

Now, back to the scrum. 😄

 

  

[Warhead36]

I'm curious when these guys will come in for their visits. I think after that there is a chance something could leak. 

 

We know the Pats and Vikings love Maye. He won't drop past #3 and the Vikes are preparing to make a mega offer for #3 if Maye is available. If not, the Pats will take Daniels and the Vikes likely trade up to 5 for McCarthy.

 

Giants love Maye too but apparently have given up on drafting him as they know he won't fall and they can't afford to trade up. They're focusing on McCarthy and Penix(would probably take Penix in round 2, but I think someone might take him in round 1).

 

We kinda determine the draft, at least in terms of QBs, and nobody knows a thing what we'll do. Its kinda cool actually.

[MartinC]

10 minutes ago, Llevron said:

like seriously y’all do a draft mock every year why can’t we pick a few of y’all to do a film breakdown on a game for each of these guys? 
 

Obviously if you have the time. But we could vote on who has what player. Then vote on a game (maybe even use stats to determine a good game and a bad one) and then break them down. We could have a ES YouTube page and everything. I can see y’all doing that every year. Vote for a position group and get to it. 

We had a thread years ago doing just that (but it was more than one game). I remember doing Jake Locker (I was right) and Blaine Gabbert (I was wrong).

 

Part of the problem - apart from the time - is that it’s hard to get enough cuts ups. The other issue is what we think plus $5 gets you a latte. 

[SkinsFTW]

1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

 

 Justin Fields was not an elite runner in college to me. 

 

 

 

JD takes sacks at over 20% rate in college, runs instead of looking for a receiver in college, only throws the ball when the WR is wide open in college as well. He's not even average at any of those things yet you want to talk about Justin Fields  running in college when he actually has a 1000 yard season in the NFL

[Llevron]

14 minutes ago, MartinC said:

We had a thread years ago doing just that (but it was more than one game). I remember doing Jake Locker (I was right) and Blaine Gabbert (I was wrong).

 

Part of the problem - apart from the time - is that it’s hard to get enough cuts ups. The other issue is what we think plus $5 gets you a latte. 

Full disclosure - I really just want to be able to challenge your opinions directly. For a living I collect peoples opinions, force discussion as a group, and then make decisions based on whatever we can all agree on (if we can). But if I can’t understand your opinions I can’t challenge (or agree) with them. My biggest talent is telling smart people “Nope. I don’t get it. Explain it again” until they figure out how to make me get it. Then I agree with them (or, often, they realize they don’t know what they know). 
 

I know it ultimately gets us no where but it sounds fun to me lol
 

 

9 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

JD takes sacks at over 20% rate in college, runs instead of looking for a receiver in college, only throws the ball when the WR is wide open in college as well. He's not even average at any of those things yet you want to talk about Justin Fields  running in college when he actually has a 1000 yard season in the NFL

 
Like this. I like to challenge stupid **** like this lol. 

[ThatNFLChick]

QB School breaks down the 2024 QB Class. 

 

He gives his thoughts on:

Maye at 18:00

Daniels at 29:00

Williams at 42:15

McCarthy at 55:00 (he likes McCarthy more than Maye it seems - just warning people now)

 

 

Edited March 30 by ThatNFLChick

[SoCalSkins]

34 minutes ago, Llevron said:

like seriously y’all do a draft mock every year why can’t we pick a few of y’all to do a film breakdown on a game for each of these guys? 
 

Obviously if you have the time. But we could vote on who has what player. Then vote on a game (maybe even use stats to determine a good game and a bad one) and then break them down. We could have a ES YouTube page and everything. I can see y’all doing that every year. Vote for a position group and get to it. 
 

edit: and it wouldn’t even be that much work (for me, who will do nothing but donate money lol) 

[Llevron]

1 minute ago, SoCalSkins said:

My favorite are meetings to discuss meetings because that’s a sign of REALLY productive work activity lol

[DWinzit]

1 minute ago, Llevron said:

My favorite are meetings to discuss meetings because that’s a sign of REALLY productive work activity lol

Wait, are you sure about that? Perhaps we need to discuss that or pay to have a study done on it

[ThatNFLChick]

9 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

QB School breaks down the 2024 QB Class. 

 

He gives his thoughts on:

Maye at 18:00

Daniels at 29:00

Williams at 42:15

McCarthy at 55:00 (he likes McCarthy more than Maye it seems - just warning people now)

 

 

 

Additional note: If anyone cares he talks about Penix and Nix at 1:10:00

[Llevron]

13 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Wait, are you sure about that? Perhaps we need to discuss that or pay to have a study done on it

We can pay a contractor 300 bucks an hour to take 3 weeks to give us the same answer, if that’s preferred. I laugh to hide my tears lolol

[DWinzit]

1 minute ago, Llevron said:

We can pay a contractor 300 bucks an hour to take 3 weeks to give us the same answer, if that’s preferred. I laugh to hide my tears lolol

Private industry has nothing on the government way! 

[MartinC]

11 minutes ago, Llevron said:

We can pay a contractor 300 bucks an hour to take 3 weeks to give us the same answer, if that’s preferred. I laugh to hide my tears lolol

Having just been through an acquisition by a PE firm, dealing with being merged into a new org along with another company they also bought (our old biggest competitor) and dealing with some super bright guys from massive consultancy firms ‘helping’ us through all this - I feel this to my core right now 😂

[Rex Tomb]

49 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

QB School breaks down the 2024 QB Class. 

 

He gives his thoughts on:

Maye at 18:00

Daniels at 29:00

Williams at 42:15

McCarthy at 55:00 (he likes McCarthy more than Maye it seems - just warning people now)

 

 

JTO doesn’t hold back, man.  Drake Maye seems to be a real heads scratcher to most scouts.  The question will be if the mistakes are correctable.  I could see a scenario where we take DM and sit him for most of the first season behind Mariota so he can clean up some of the issues it appears he still has. 
 

On another note: that’s a beautiful condo they are recording from.  Love those floor to ceiling windows and all the natural light.  What city is that?

Edited March 30 by Rex Tomb