The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[MartinC]

25 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

I actually agree with tim to the degree I do think I'm seeing that to some extent on film, but I'm wishy washy as to sureness or it being real and even if it is, I still allow it could be a nothing burger, or a real but minor issue, or actually even a bigger thing than I think now 😄 once he's playing in this league. 

 

This is one reason why all my takes are free to the consumer. 🤡

Part of what makes the evaluation of Daniels difficult IMO is so often his first read is open. In that situation it’s not his fault he’s not getting off the first read - he’s doing what’s he supposed to! 
 

There are cases where he gets to his second and third reads though so I think people labeling him a ‘1 read and run’ guy are being unfair.

 

My issue is there is not much film of him throwing with anticipation or fitting it into tight windows and when he does run his eyes drop and he is just not looking to throw. That and while he has an NFL arm his deep ball and outside the numbers throws show he doesn’t have a plus NFL arm.

[clskinsfan]

5 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

 

Now I am curious about what hes hiding under that hair.

Dont really like the fact that he chose to address this on SM. Gotta ignore the BS.

[Llevron]

8 minutes ago, HOF44 said:

I’d pay for a subscription to Jumbo smackdowns. 

Im telling you there is a market to be cornered here.

[Jumbo]

9 minutes ago, HOF44 said:

I’d pay for a subscription to Jumbo smackdowns. 

 

I still have a t-shirt I ordered from National Lampoon magazine about fifty years ago  (one of several, the others which I can't describe in this forum) that's emblazoned with the phrase "Shoot the Wounded" across the front in a colorful jagged font and I like to wear it when I'm working the board. 👹

 

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Jumbo said:

 

I still have a t-shirt I ordered from National Lampoon magazine about fifty years ago  (one of several, the others which I can't describe in this forum) that's emblazoned with the phrase "Shoot the Wounded" across the front in a colorful jagged font and I like to wear it when I'm working the board. 👹

 

You still fit in shirts you ordered 50 years ago? Congratulations. I couldnt even get any of those over my fat ass head.

[mistertim]

51 minutes ago, Llevron said:

I don’t know bro. I have looked at soo soo much of his film and breakdowns by professionals and I think maybe one of them (and I don’t even know who that guys was, and he only went through one game) agrees with you on his processing and progressions. Not a single draft profile I have seen agrees with you. It’s actually listed as on of his biggest strengths on the draft profiles by NFL.com, PFF, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports…..I can go on and on. I haven’t run into ONE place that is agreeing with you. I just want you to quantify it outside of “Trust me I saw it”. Cause I trust you. But I would like to verify lol. 

 

I'm not your bro.

 

Well I did provide data about the tucking and running thing. I'll see if I can find the tweets with that in it.

 

And I'm not saying you have to trust me. Trust the sources you like and your own eyes. I'm telling you what I see when I watch him and watch what his helmet does after the snap. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just kidding, we're still totally bros     

[Llevron]

20 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Part of what makes the evaluation of Daniels difficult IMO is so often his first read is open. In that situation it’s not his fault he’s not getting off the first read - he’s doing what’s he supposed to! 
 

There are cases where he gets to his second and third reads though so I think people labeling him a ‘1 read and run’ guy are being unfair.

 

My issue is there is not much film of him throwing with anticipation or fitting it into tight windows and when he does run his eyes drop and he is just not looking to throw. That and while he has an NFL arm his deep ball and outside the numbers throws show he doesn’t have a plus NFL arm.

I think all of that is fair criticism. It’s why he is neck and neck in most opinions with Maye, not clearly ahead of him. 

[mistertim]

25 minutes ago, HOF44 said:

I’d pay for a subscription to Jumbo smackdowns. 

 

Wait...you don't pay?

 

Christ almighty. Jumbo has been scamming me for years! He said it was a standard subscription service...

[DiscoBob]

11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'm not your bro.

.

.

.

.

Just kidding, we're still totally bros     

 

[Llevron]

22 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Just kidding, we're still totally bros     

I was upset for a second! 
 

Yea I just like arguing with y’all, honestly. I have no way to prove any of the **** I am saying outside of aggregating other peoples opinions to form an opinion. And there is a reason these guys are proven wrong every year. 

[The Consigliere]

9 hours ago, BMagic said:

I'm sure Eugene Shen is crunching all the relevant numbers. The interviews will matter a ton. You need to know if these were a result of LSU's scheme and if like Keim suggests, some of the sacks are a result of Jayden not quite squeezing through running lanes and it results as a "sack"

 

A 24% pressure to sack ratio is unplayable in the NFL, would absolutely have to be mitigated. If he can maintain a higher playing weight, he'll be able to brush off more sack attempts as well.

The annoying thing is how thoroughly they ignore his other seasons. How about we just pay attention to Maye's '22? His first career college starts ever? Daniels pressure to sack ratio was significantly worse his first 4 seasons, compared to his fifth. He actually showed a ton of improvement getting to that lower percentage in '23, but how much was having career performances from his teammates? 

[clskinsfan]

33 minutes ago, Llevron said:

I think all of that is fair criticism. It’s why he is neck and neck in most opinions with Maye, not clearly ahead of him. 

I think Daniels is more NFL ready right now. And he should be. He is older and a 5 year starter in college. That is one of my biggest concerns. How much more will he actually grow from here? 

[mistertim]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think Daniels is more NFL ready right now. And he should be. He is older and a 5 year starter in college. That is one of my biggest concerns. How much more will he actually grow from here? 

 

I think a case could be made for both of them to either sit or start early.

 

Daniels:

 

Pros - More starting experience, better / more consistent footwork and mechanics

Cons - Lack of many anticipation and tight windows throws in college could make life difficult in the NFL

 

Maye:

 

Pros - Plenty of anticipation and tight window throws in college, especially down the middle

Cons - Inconsistent / sloppy footwork and mechanics. Only 2 years of starting experience

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Llevron said:

I have posted clip after clip of him going through his reads. I can continue to do that if it helps. If your argument is “one read and run” and I can literally with video prove that is not the case….how do we move forward from there? Help me understand it. 

 

And what seasons are they from? And ftr, if Maye throws a bomb on a line, I don't give a ----, and if Daniels goes through his progressions on a couple of clips, I also don't give a -----. It's over repetitions over years worth of games, not a couple of clips, not two dozen clips. And btw, I'll sit down, and eat that crow with pleasure, if in the pro's, he's noted for going through them consistently. A few days ago on bigsoccer I did the very same w/regards to some USMNT particulars. I've got no problem owning when I'm wrong about something and proven so. I'm not trying to win a game here or earn mystical points on the antique social media equivalent of a slide rule, I'm terrified we're about to be colossal idiots and draft a guy with an absolute litany of glaring warning signs of bust, that's my issue. And btw, as I've said before, I don't think I'm right that Maye is gonna be a stud, I just think there's a lot less bust potential with Maye, than with Daniels, I see a higher ceiling too, but my projection history with QB's is erratic at best, other than identifying future busts. I suck as much as anyone else at projecting future success at the position. 

Edited March 31 by The Consigliere

[SkinsFTW]

20 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 He actually showed a ton of improvement getting to that lower percentage in '23, but how much was having career performances from his teammates? 

 

And even with the improvement, he was 50% passing when pressured and the other 50% either got sacked (25%) or ran the other 25% I'd guess. So he's going to get hit 50% of the time when he's pressured and not get injured early and often? With his size?   

 

 

[The Consigliere]

2 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

And even with the improvement, he was 50% passing when pressured and the other 50% either got sacked (25%) or ran the other 25% I'd guess. So he's going to get hit 50% of the time when he's pressured and not get injured early and often? With his size?   

 

 

I'm just enormously aggravated at this aggressive stupidity with paying attention to the most recent season line of production, and nothing else. It's bad enough just doing it with any prospect in any sport, its particularly stupid to do with a position as difficult to evaluate as QB, especially when the guy has literally 5 years worth of sample size data, and none of it looks remotely like the past season. 

 

It's like all of these twitter dudes, GM's, scouts, coaches etc when they secretly hold their fantasy drafts over the summer only look at '23 stats. Literally there is no easier way to steal money from fantasy players than to find dolts that look no further than last seasons stats. 

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I'm just enormously aggravated at this aggressive stupidity with paying attention to the most recent season line of production, and nothing else. It's bad enough just doing it with any prospect in any sport, its particularly stupid to do with a position as difficult to evaluate as QB, especially when the guy has literally 5 years worth of sample size data, and none of it looks remotely like the past season. 

 

It's like all of these twitter dudes, GM's, scouts, coaches etc when they secretly hold their fantasy drafts over the summer only look at '23 stats. Literally there is no easier way to steal money from fantasy players than to find dolts that look no further than last seasons stats. 

 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

Part of what makes the evaluation of Daniels difficult IMO is so often his first read is open. In that situation it’s not his fault he’s not getting off the first read - he’s doing what’s he supposed to! 
 

There are cases where he gets to his second and third reads though so I think people labeling him a ‘1 read and run’ guy are being unfair.

 

My issue is there is not much film of him throwing with anticipation or fitting it into tight windows and when he does run his eyes drop and he is just not looking to throw. That and while he has an NFL arm his deep ball and outside the numbers throws show he doesn’t have a plus NFL arm.

Point taken, when you've got Malik Nabers, who basically nailed down #1 in an absolute crap ton of analytics categories for WR's last year, you often don't need to look further than him, unless your targeting Brian Thomas, former top 20 WR recruit and 4 star who finally broke out big time in '23 for TD opportunities. 

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I've occasionally engaged in a rather subtle, shy, kind of stupidity in all manner of things, I'm rarely a loud idiot (though I've certainly been one in some of these annual draft threads). 

[The Consigliere]

43 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think Daniels is more NFL ready right now. And he should be. He is older and a 5 year starter in college. That is one of my biggest concerns. How much more will he actually grow from here? 

And how can '23 not be an outlier season? People are already selling that '22 was the outlier with Maye and '23 is who he is (some), why isn't Daniels '19 or '20, '21 or '22, when he was solid to pretty good to good rather than otherworldly? Sometimes you're just God Mode like Burrow, sometimes your a fraud like Akili Smith or Tim Couch or Marcus Mariota etc. Maye and Daniels should be judged on their body of work, period, not on a season. This is true of any prospect btw, I always love to use Wilfork as an example and Marino, dudes had iffy final seasons in college dropped to the end of the first round, and both are in the Hall, there are countless other examples. Look at the whole cv, the good and the bad. I don't know what either of these guys are gonna be, but the entire cv is a way better way to evaluate them than how they did in a couple of clips, or in '23 alone, or '21 or '22 or anything like that. Zach Wilson, Trubisky, Trey Lance etc all could figure out how to be good for a season, look at everything. Especially considering breakout age. Both Maye and Daniels broke out early, but has anyone noticed that Maye's age 20 season, his first as a starter was better than any Daniels season by far until his fifth? What does that say? What does that mean. I'm baffled at the way people ignore that. It's confounding to me. How much is Nabers and Thomas, how much is Thomas, I have no clue, Burrow and Jefferson proved it can be both, sometimes its just one of them, sometimes neither (though Nabers busting would shock me more than any WR since Charlie Rogers). 

Edited March 31 by The Consigliere

[Llevron]

56 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

And what seasons are they from? And ftr, if Maye throws a bomb on a line, I don't give a ----, and if Daniels goes through his progressions on a couple of clips, I also don't give a -----. It's over repetitions over years worth of games, not a couple of clips, not two dozen clips. And btw, I'll sit down, and eat that crow with pleasure, if in the pro's, he's noted for going through them consistently. A few days ago on bigsoccer I did the very same w/regards to some USMNT particulars. I've got no problem owning when I'm wrong about something and proven so. I'm not trying to win a game here or earn mystical points on the antique social media equivalent of a slide rule, I'm terrified we're about to be colossal idiots and draft a guy with an absolute litany of glaring warning signs of bust, that's my issue. And btw, as I've said before, I don't think I'm right that Maye is gonna be a stud, I just think there's a lot less bust potential with Maye, than with Daniels, I see a higher ceiling too, but my projection history with QB's is erratic at best, other than identifying future busts. I suck as much as anyone else at projecting future success at the position. 

I understand you finding the fervor with which I’m choosing to stand on this random hill over and random player (that might not even be playing here) annoying. Truly. Jumbo has in his usual subtle way pointed out how much of an ass I’m making myself so I don’t intend to keep doing it. 
 

But fair being fair I’ll respond cause I know it’s annoying to make an argument and have someone run from it. 
 

All the games I have looked at are from this season. I want to say I’m sure his processing didn’t just start in 2023, but even if his feet and eyes are just catching up with his what is in front of him THIS season, I’m not sure that is something that he will just stop doing. He is the best at it out of all the signal callers in this draft. It’s not a fluke, you just have to watch a little bit to see that. If you don’t, fine. But he is doing it. 
 

To your over all point that he had one good year out of five, let be fully honest. One of those years was 4 games. 4. What was he supposed to improve on? They weren’t even allowed to practice if I recall correctly. Of course that had an effect. I’m not going to sit here and make excuses about everything the kid didn’t do, but it’s obvious there were circumstances. I’m not even arguing he is perfect. Literally my argument was he is not one and run as you kept saying. And if we can’t even agree on what we SEE I don’t see the point in going through this anymore. 
 

Im not going to be calling for you to eat crow either. I legit was trying to get to a point where we can all agree on a set of basic facts. Rather that means me moving toward your side through learning something or you doing it. I took the time to back up my claims with video and professional opinions. It’s upsetting that I can’t get ANY of you to do the same. Annoying, honestly. And yet I end up looking like the asshole. We don’t have to keep doing this though I’ll leave you guys alone, I can tell I’m being the jerk here. 

Edited March 31 by Llevron

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Im not going to be calling for you to eat crow either. I legit was trying to get to a point where we can all agree on a set of basic facts. Rather that means me moving toward your side through learning something or you doing it. I took the time to back up my claims with video and professional opinions. It’s upsetting that I can’t get ANY of you to do the same. Annoying, honestly. And yet I end up looking like the asshole. We don’t have to keep doing this though I’ll leave you guys alone, I can tell I’m being the jerk here. 

 

Hey. I'M the jerk here. Do not try to muscle your way into my space.

[CapsSkins]

2 hours ago, Llevron said:

I think all of that is fair criticism. It’s why he is neck and neck in most opinions with Maye, not clearly ahead of him. 

 

They're neck and neck but are they rubbing elbows??

 

I'm hearing Jayden far surpasses Drake in the "elbow grease" department.

[Llevron]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Hey. I'M the jerk here. Do not try to muscle your way into my space.

Always there for me when I need you most lol

 

[Jumbo]

Referring back to an earlier post I made, there are many contexts where you should indeed take an entire record into consideration for best analysis of someone's capabilities and possibilities. This is one of them.

 

Cherry picking data points out of a stream of associated content, mainly to help support a claim, is commonplace with people who like to argue to "be right" but it's less effective for people who have serious research/analytical intent.

 

That said, there are certain matters when isolating specific data in a more narrow manner is necessary for accurate results.

 

That's not the case here.

 

But even in our topic here, not every data point is equally significant, and different periods of time can have different levels of relevance. 

 

Still, a thorough examination of all of it is preferable, especially when compared to self-serving cherry picking

 

Also, when someone repeatedly posts references only to sources that support their preference, though there are plenty of equally valid sources that can be used that support another preference, understand that you're probably not in an open-minded discussion.

 

And I'd say this topic should most rightly still be an open minded examination with no sure "right" answer. I think most of us know that and are in that boat.

 

For me, the best exchanges are ones where the possibility to learn goes both ways.

 

 

[clskinsfan]

9 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Im not going to be calling for you to eat crow either.

I think they will both be successful in the right system. So I am not really sure anyone is going to have to eat crow at all. In the end it depends what the coaches want. Do they want the experienced guy with devastating running ability or the less experienced guy they will have to coach up that also has an absolute elite arm while being no slouch athletically either. Hard choice. But Harris has already shown he is willing to be patient. I would prefer the guy with the higher upside. But I will enjoy watching either one of them.