The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[zCommander]

8 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 You know that was posted in here like 10 days ago?

 

10 days ago? You can't even walk away from this thread for 10 mins and not know what you missed 😂

[Rex Tomb]

8 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Cause the Giants suck and are evil and deserve NOTHING, EVER.

 

If Drake Maye works out for them, and we gave them that pick...everyone gets fired.  Everyone.

[mac8887]

9 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Cause the Giants suck and are evil and deserve NOTHING, EVER.

 

If Drake Maye works out for them, and we gave them that pick...everyone gets fired.  Everyone.

Drake Maye really doesn’t scare me the way Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniel’s do. I’d be perfectly fine with the Giants getting Maye if they lose the next 2 years first rounders. They are already hamstrung by the cap and daniel jones contract, without the 1st rounders they wouldn’t have the money or the picks to build enough of a roster around Maye to really compete. On top of that, with Mayes inconsistencies with his accuracy and turnovers, I believe his bust potential is pretty high. By the time they would be able to start building a quality roster around Maye, we would have talent across the board, with McCarthy who is almost as touted as Maye, ready to take the reigns after sitting for 2 years learning the offense, and physically and mentally maturing. 
 

It feels like it could be a way to set him up for success like Rodger’s and Mahomes were, while still giving us a chance to win now while Russ still has a little left in the tank. Last year was a down year for Russ but he was still a top 10 qb in Td/int rate and was competing for the playoffs even after a woeful start by the broncos in a tougher conference and division than we have. 

[Warhead36]

You dont hand a division rival a franchise QB man thats just awful. A trade like that would have me calling for Peters head immediately. 

 

And Russell Wilson sucks. Hard pass. 

[mac8887]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

You dont hand a division rival a franchise QB man thats just awful. A trade like that would have me calling for Peters head immediately. 

 

And Russell Wilson sucks. Hard pass. 

Not sure how you can call Maye a franchise qb without him ever playing a down for a franchise, and I’m not sure how you can say a Super Bowl winning qb that had 1 down year the year before last sucks, especially with him being a top 10 qb last year in TD/int ratio, especially on a vet minimum contract.  On top of that Russ would only be a stop gap until our rookie was ready to hit the ground running. It’s not like he’d be our starter for anymore than a year or 2

Edited February 25 by mac8887

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

😂 I’d suggest many of the points being made in this thread imply people are content with a QB that will make us more competitive. Not a serial winner. But more competitive.

 

 

The Bills are a serial winner.  Being in the playoffs every year.  Actually winning in the playoffs.  Making it to a championship.  In order to have a chance to win the big dance it starts with being a serial winner with a big boy QB.  And no I don't think Josh Allen's window is closed at 27.   Call me crazy but I won't be crying with a top 5 Qb just because he's not #1.

 

It's not like we've been feasting but not just getting the ultimate feast.  We've been a dude thirsty for water in the desert let alone feasting

 

Going to get Bo Nix will likely do the very thing you are advocating against.

 

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

😂

 

Agree. They’ve won nothing.

 

The Bills are considered a big boy team.  We are the wimpy kids watching them in the playoffs every year. Granted most QBs don't last until they are 30.  So Allen at 27 is likely done?  Maybe a year or two more?

 

You should be the way be watching Chelsea-Liverpool now. 

Edited February 25 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

Not sure how you can call Maye a franchise qb without him ever playing a down for a franchise, and I’m not sure how you can say a Super Bowl winning qb that had 1 down year the year before last sucks, especially with him being a top 10 qb last year in TD/int ratio, especially on a vet minimum contract.  On top of that Russ would only be a stop gap until our rookie was ready to hit the ground running. It’s not like he’d be our starter for anymore than a year or 2

Wilson sucks. He got benched for Jarredd freaking Stidham.

 

Actually watch the games.

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The Bills are a serial winner.  Being in the playoffs every year.  Actually winning in the playoffs.  Making it to a championship.  In order to have a chance to win the big dance it starts with being a serial winner with a big boy QB.  And no I don't think Josh Allen's window is closed at 27.   Call me crazy but I won't be crying with a top 5 Qb just because he's not #1.

 

It's not like we've been feasting but not just getting the ultimate feast.  We've been a dude thirsty for water in the desert let alone feasting

 

Going to get Bo Nix will likely do the very thing you are advocating against.

 

 

The Bills are considered a big boy team.  We are the wimpy kids watching them in the playoffs every year. Granted most QBs don't last until they are 30.  So Allen at 27 is likely done?  Maybe a year or two more?

 

You should be the way be watching Chelsea-Liverpool now. 

Exactly. Youre aiming to get a guy who gives you sustained success year in year out. Only 34 QBs in league history have won a Super Bowl. Noone knows if any of the ones drafted this year will. 
 

I think all 3 of the Big 3 can be that guy, so ultimately Im happy if we end up with any of em. This notion that Maye is some donkey compared to Willims and Daniels is just absurdly bad analysis. 

[mac8887]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Wilson sucks. He got benched for Jarredd freaking Stidham.

 

Actually watch the games.

I did watch the games, he got benched because the broncos didn’t want to have to pay a 36 year old qb anymore garaunteed money. They benched him to make sure he could pass a physical in March. It had nothing to do with his play.  If he’d of failed the physical they would of owed him like $30 million.

Edited February 25 by mac8887

[Command The 414]

3 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

 I’m not sure how you can say a Super Bowl winning qb that had 1 down year the year before last sucks, especially with him being a top 10 qb last year in TD/int ratio, especially on a vet minimum contract. 

if someone with their eyes can't see that Russell Wilson is pretty much done I just hope that person isn't employed in our FO...he's done, those stats were soooooooooo misleading last season, I mean Sean Payton probably would have played the towel boy at some point over going back to Wilson after the benching........I love Wilson personally, the things he stands up for in life, being a true role model but as far as wanting him here...nah I would definitely want Howell to be the starter.....

[spjunkies]

Just now, mac8887 said:

I did watch the game, he got benched because the broncos didn’t want to have to grunted a 36 year old qb anymore garaunteed money. They benched him to make sure he could pass a physical in March. It had nothing to do with his play.  

 

I'm not big on RW at all, but this is accurate. 

[Est.1974]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Call me crazy but I won't be crying with a top 5 Qb just because he's not #1.

 

You should be the way be watching Chelsea-Liverpool now. 

Same, I’ll go with whoever they ultimately land.

 

As for the final, I don’t have a great love for either team to be honest, tough call to watch that today 

3 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

I did watch the games, he got benched because the broncos didn’t want to have to pay a 36 year old qb anymore garaunteed money. They benched him to make sure he could pass a physical in March. It had nothing to do with his play.  If he’d of failed the physical they would have owed him like $30 million.

Yep it was a contact based decision.

[FootballZombie]

Getting Russell Wilson at bargain bin rates is great value. You could do a heck of a lot worse.

 

Won't be here tho.

[ThatNFLChick]

 

[skinsfan66]

6 minutes ago, spjunkies said:

 

I'm not big on RW at all, but this is accurate. 

It's also accurate that he is done. He was terrible his first year with the Broncos and just a little better last year after having Payton working with him. No need to sign for a Old washed up Vet again, Ron is gone. We have Coaches, will have a Blue Chip QB?, and already have a couple other QB's to work with. 

[FootballZombie]

Even tho Kurt has a massive bias against college football, I will compartmentalize the info when he says dudes r average and just making easy plays a lot of the time b/c he has some actual authority and clout to his name vs some rando youtubers.

[Voice_of_Reason]

10 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Donovan Mcnabb in 99

Philip Rivers in 04

RG3 in 12

Sam Darnold in 18

Tua in 20

Zack Wilson in 2021

CJ Stroud in 2023

I get your point with the 3 QBs in top 10.

 

I do find it interesting QBs went 1/2 in both:

2015 - Winston/Marriota

2016 - Goff/Wentz

 

And three are busts and 1 is Goff.  Who has played in a SB and might have played in another if Dan Campbell wasn’t a kneecap biting moron.  
 

And the 2017 draft is WILD because Mitch Trubisky weren’t #2.  Mahomes went #10 and Watson went 12.

 

in that draft, if you include it in the QB loaded because there were 3 in rge top 12, Mahomes is the second taken.  
 

I think all this analysis shows is 2 things:

 

1. the data is all over the map.

2. You have to pick the guy you think is going to be the guy

3. you have to expect there’s a 60% chance you’re wrong.

 

Just about every good GM has swung at a QB and missed.  Bobby Beathard swung at Ryan Leaf. 
 

All the analysis in the world results in, you just gotta be lucky.  

[MrJL]

41 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

Not sure how you can call Maye a franchise qb without him ever playing a down for a franchise, and I’m not sure how you can say a Super Bowl winning qb that had 1 down year the year before last sucks, especially with him being a top 10 qb last year in TD/int ratio, especially on a vet minimum contract.  On top of that Russ would only be a stop gap until our rookie was ready to hit the ground running. It’s not like he’d be our starter for anymore than a year or 2

 

because we've seen what happens when these guys fall off without massive injury excuses and what happens is not "they bounce back like nothing ever happened"

[FootballZombie]

14 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Who has played in a SB and might have played in another if Dan Campbell wasn’t a kneecap biting moron.

 

Language warning

Spoiler

 

 

[kingdaddy]

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

3. you have to expect there’s a 60% chance you’re wrong.

 

This, if true, and I agree with this, is why I can't totally grasp taking Maye or Daniels at #2 over trading back or just taking MHJ and one of the other QB's later in the 1st round or in round 2. For me, Maye, Daniels and CW need to be much better QB prospects than the next tier of QB's coming out because any of them could crap out as much as they could work out. Kurt Warner saying that evaluating these QB's on college film is basically impossible makes this whole QB draft thing seem like a crapshoot. Just seeing how the Niners lucked into Purdy after trading a fortune for Trey Lance seems to make Warner's point. 

I also don't feel like we can afford to waste this #2 pick again like what happened with Chase Young. We need to be sure we get an all pro player with this pick or with picks we get by trading back. All this being said, I understand the draft has risk but a player like MHJ doesn't seem like a prospect with a 60% chance we'll be wrong on . Maybe our analytics guy, Chen, will have some thoughts on all of this as well? 

[DogofWar1]

Well historically the odds of hitting on a QB go down the farther and farther we go.  It's probably 50% for true first rounders, and only gets worse from there.  I use the qualifier of "true" bc lots of QBs aren't first round talents but go in the first.

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

10 days ago? You can't even walk away from this thread for 10 mins and not know what you missed 😂

If you assume it’s mainly people trying to find some clip or obscure stats that proves one of either Maye or Daniel’s are bound to be a bust you won’t be far wrong.

[FootballZombie]

5 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Kurt Warner saying that evaluating these QB's on college film is basically impossible makes this whole QB draft thing seem like a crapshoot.

 

It is a crapshoot to an extent, but not an equivalent one across the board.

 

If getting that golden ticket QB at the top of the draft has the same odds of getting hit by lightning, the odds of getting a guy further back is like the odds of the same guy gettting hit twice.

 

Impossible? No. But lets not pretend the odds are the same.

If you want "that guy", the higher in the draft you are the better odds you have.

[MartinC]

31 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

All the analysis in the world results in, you just gotta be lucky.  

Fundamentally agree - but the analysis and especially in person interaction help you at least improve your odds of hitting.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Catching up on this thread.  Was wondering where all the Josh Allen hate was coming from. I get it now its an indirect hit on Drake Maye. 

 

I get it a top 5 QB, still isn't the #1 QB in the league.  

 

And 5 playoff appearances in a row. And winning at least one playoff game in 4 of those 5 those years.  A championship game, too.  Yawn. Boring.    

 

27-24 came just short to Mahomes last year.  That's curtains for that team.   Josh Allen is 27 years old already.  That's sort of the end of the road for most QBs.  They've had their shot its over. 

 

Thinking about this team's ride in the last 30 years, the Bills run would feel like a major let down.  We are already in the playoffs every year and we win at least a game in the playoffs everytime we are there.  Having QBs who are just a hair behind Mahomes is the country we live in already.  What would be new to be a perennial contender?  

 

 

 

I think part of it is a sense that Allen has that issue some of the great QB's have had over the years that makes them incapable of winning big games. The problem is, he's not been the problem in these games. He's not stumbling around throwing a bunch of picks, fumbling left and right, leading no drives for TD's etc. Nope, his line is clear: 64% complete, 270+ yards on average per playoff start, 21 playoff TD passes,  5 TD runs, 4 playoff picks, and 560+ yards rushing for an average of about 56 yards a game running. 

 

So is this really an Allen thing, or an everything else on that team thing? Seriously. 

 

It's pretty damn clear he isn't stepping on banana peels, he's giving the team a bunch of points and the defense is giving game after game away, lead after lead away. 

 

So even the argument in general is idiotic. As I mentioned in a prior post: What happened to Mahomes or Brady or Montana, the greatest of 3 of the past 4 decades when their OL, or their D, or both didn't show up? Since I'm from San Francisco, I remember with vivid accuracy what happened to Montana: he got annihilated by the Giants in '85 and '86, enduring serious injury in the process, Rice having one of his most notorious screw ups imaginable in one of the losses, and then the coup de grace, the mud bowl ---- show loss to the vikes at home in January '87 which is the only reason Williams got a chance for his moment against the Broncos. They were 10-1 going in, 11 point favorites, but the Vikes found a way to break through their line, sacked Montana four times in a half or so and that was that. 3 straight implosions '85-'87, and the defense, 36 (29 offensive) points given up to the freaking crap ---ed Vikes we gave up 1 TD to the following week, what about Brady? When his line, playmakers, and D sucked, they lost to the Giants twice, they nearly lost to the Falcons and they did lose to the Eagles, and no surprise that swoon from '05-'10 was mostly about the defense falling off, and giving Brady no help, Mahomes poor performances? Defensive ineptitude, and bad line play, the main culprits.

 

So really, even the best become human when you give them a crappy D, and/or a crappy OL, and/or worse playmakers. Well, Allen's defenses have consistently been playoff frauds and his playmakers have always been a mix of Diggs and detritus and now Diggs is old. 

 

[DogofWar1]

There's a lot of luck that goes into winning SBs too. 

 

Who wins this year if the ball doesn't bounce off a 49ers heel?  How different are all these conversations if it's Purdy hoisting the trophy?

 

Once you're in the conversation you're in the conversation.  You get hot at the right time and get a few lucky bounces, you hoist the trophy.  You need a QB to get into the conversation somewhat consistently, and you can certainly help to manufacture your own "luck" but oftentimes true luckiness comes into play as well.