The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

Which he again just did a 180 on by saying if the playoffs were on the line, they would probably start Brissett.  

Damn, when was this?

 

I shouldn’t be surprised, but damn.

[DJHJR86]

17 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Damn, when was this?

 

I shouldn’t be surprised, but damn.

 

 

 

 

[skinny21]

27 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

If we don't draft our qb, I really hope they bring Jacoby back or maybe make a play for kirk or Flacco, you know just in case Sam gets hurt or something 

I was just thinking something along these lines…

 

For a new FO - considering new ownership, coming off a dismal season, with huge question marks on the roster, and perhaps factoring in the need/drive to bring fans back - what’s the best move?  Start fresh at qb knowing the team could struggle next year, or use the pick to help build the roster.  Incremental improvement to look more competitive or swing for the fences (possibly taking longer to truly look competitive)?

Draft a top 3 qb?

Draft an exciting offensive weapon and have Sam and a vet duke it out?

Draft an OT?

Trade back to help add pieces to the roster (and/or add pick(s) for the future)?

 

If they roll with Sam or a vet, perhaps we look more competitive, but do we lose out in terms of the future looking bright?  Some serious questions…

[ntotoro]

Ron knows the playoffs are out of the question now, right... ? He was confused last year, too.

 

Sam's regression as the season went on is from multiple factors. My worry is that he has been Ramsey'ed to the point that he's irredeemable now, even behind a competent O-Line. Might be best to start over for that reason alone, but you don't get rid of an inexpensive (from a cap perspective) QB when you have no need to.

[skinsfan66]

12 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

If we decide to draft a qb , then trade Sam and just sign a veteran backup. Could resign Jacoby or sign some other veteran. There will be plenty of veteran backup qbs available.

 

Here’s the calculus on qb. If they feel the qb position can be improved with someone in the draft, they will

do it.  If they feel Sam is better than a draft pick, they will go with him.

 

Regardless of who’s qb, the o-line will

be revamped. I figure 2 of our top 5 picks in Rounds 1-3; will be o-line. I figure we will also sign at least 2 o- linemen in free agency. We won’t be able to fill our needs in one year but they will definitely make sure the o- line is better.

They did not revamp the OL last year when they had a chance. There are a lot of holes to fill now with DE and the,LB,TE,CB... Dou't they fill them all with FA. too? It is going to interesting to see were we pick, lose out we pick 1/4. Picking in 1/2 spot could land a boat load of picks. Maybe the value changes for the picks over QB? to early to count your chickens yet with so much to be settled with the draft.  Could be Howell and Picks over New QB? Or a new QB? What is going to best for the team, it's not just a QB thing as it is not the most glaring need? I hope we pick 1/2 and they make the right choice.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

19 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

Cooleyfan worked for, probably still does, for the team so he couldn't take constructive criticism that well and got annoyed as hell when someone bashed the FO. I am just a fan who loves the team I chose to rep back in 1998. I was a football fan first and Redskins fan later. Once I bought my new born son Redskins onesies days after he was born I was in all the way. Gotta support your hometown team.  

 

I usually don't die on a hill when it comes to the QB since we haven't had a good QB in the last 30 years. But I rooted for Ramsey, RG3 (but only his 1st year, he showed he is a diva after his injury and promised his sponsors how he is going to start the following year even though still in rehab, he had ego issues and he still does as it turns out), Kirk a lot and to a little extent Taylor but Howell is still better than the ones I just listed. I hate to see it go to waste based on a few bad games without a decent OL and playmakers around him though. 

 

His dad worked for the team, I believe, in the Legal Department. I don't think he worked for anyone anywhere doing anything, but he had more access than Art Mills ever dreamed of.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

Yeah it’s over for Sam. Getting benched and then buried publicly by the coach that swore for 10 months that you were some unearthed gem? 
 

imo, no GM would seriously consider him as a viable starter next year. That ship has sailed. You can’t use stats and the film looks worse and worse. Now Rivera has dumped on him. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

17 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Yeah it’s over for Sam. Getting benched and then buried publicly by the coach that swore for 10 months that you were some unearthed gem? 
 

imo, no GM would seriously consider him as a viable starter next year. That ship has sailed. You can’t use stats and the film looks worse and worse. Now Rivera has dumped on him. 

I don’t think Rivera’s opinion means anything.  Whoever we hire is going to make their own opinion based on what they see.

[skinsmania123]

12 hours ago, mac8887 said:

But what if this and his last year at chapel hill is the real Sam howell. I mean this year and then we're the last to times he had any meaningful in game snaps?

 When you look at his numbers in 2021, his junior year, it is important to point out that both of his RB's were gone, who combined for over 2,000 yards rushing in 2020. One moved onto the NFL, and two of his go to receivers moved onto the NFL, one being Dyami Brown, which led to a depleted roster in terms of talent. In 2021 Howell, rushed for close to 900 yards, but did not have the numbers he had in his first two years in terms of passing. It has been noted that there was a decline in roster talent and reliable weapons around him. 

 

 I know you said you "lurked" as you say, but in just the last two days you have posted over 100 variations of we have to move on from Sam Howell posts. But the assessment of him at NC, particularly in 2021 is couched in a number of factors.  Truthfully, I ask why do we have to move on from him?  He is a cheap contract. He would not cause any issues. He is a quiet, self-contained respectful guy. Every team has fans screaming for a new QB when there are issues with the starter.  Yes, like most QB's Howell needs a modicum of talent around him to be successful. He has had some solid games. And he has had some real duds, with no help on the other side of the ball, to perhaps uplift him through it.  He may, at this juncture, need a fresh start somewhere else. But from a financial perspective, and based upon what he has shown, they should hold onto him. Yes, they probably will draft a QB, even though we have the most mediocre roster and need upgrades everywhere. But rookies are unproven, so why dump Howell? 

 

Personally, I cannot wait for the season to end, on a losing note, to fire Ron, the last vestige of Snyder stink, to bring in a proven GM and a decent HC. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I think you keep him on the roster, especially if they keep Bienemy around (which is doubtful).

 

We've gotten really really good at finding solid backup quarterbacks. It's a fascinating skill.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

5 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I don’t think Rivera’s opinion means anything.  Whoever we hire is going to make their own opinion based on what they see.

What would be the case for keeping Sam as a starter ? Honestly? He looked good for like 4 games? An unbiased analytically inclined GM is going to look at the whole picture and imo, not really be all that impressed other than that he seems to always get up after he gets sacked a bunch. 
 

His numbers (box score and advanced) are middling at best and trending towards bad. He was just benched and had his biggest fan admit he probably wouldn’t be playing if the games were meaningful. The GM would have no ties to Sam. They’ll likely end the season losing 8 in a row. What would be the realistic case for keeping Sam over drafting your own QB (and their cheaper for longer contract) ? Only thing I could think of is if you end up picking 7th or later and even then, I think there’s potentially for them to draft a guy that will likely at least compete with Sam. 

[Wyvern]

Ron's answer to the Wash-Post reporter's hypothetical question was a,poor one. 

 

He could have simply said, "Nikki, if we were in the playoff hunt, that means Sam was helping to bring in the wins, so why would I want to change horses? After all, we've all still seeing what this young man can do, even as he's being developed, and we see many ways that he's still improving, even though he's still seeing new NFL level tactics used against him for each week he starts against different teams."

[mac8887]

56 minutes ago, skinsmania123 said:

 When you look at his numbers in 2021, his junior year, it is important to point out that both of his RB's were gone, who combined for over 2,000 yards rushing in 2020. One moved onto the NFL, and two of his go to receivers moved onto the NFL, one being Dyami Brown, which led to a depleted roster in terms of talent. In 2021 Howell, rushed for close to 900 yards, but did not have the numbers he had in his first two years in terms of passing. It has been noted that there was a decline in roster talent and reliable weapons around him. 

 

 I know you said you "lurked" as you say, but in just the last two days you have posted over 100 variations of we have to move on from Sam Howell posts. But the assessment of him at NC, particularly in 2021 is couched in a number of factors.  Truthfully, I ask why do we have to move on from him?  He is a cheap contract. He would not cause any issues. He is a quiet, self-contained respectful guy. Every team has fans screaming for a new QB when there are issues with the starter.  Yes, like most QB's Howell needs a modicum of talent around him to be successful. He has had some solid games. And he has had some real duds, with no help on the other side of the ball, to perhaps uplift him through it.  He may, at this juncture, need a fresh start somewhere else. But from a financial perspective, and based upon what he has shown, they should hold onto him. Yes, they probably will draft a QB, even though we have the most mediocre roster and need upgrades everywhere. But rookies are unproven, so why dump Howell? 

 

Personally, I cannot wait for the season to end, on a losing note, to fire Ron, the last vestige of Snyder stink, to bring in a proven GM and a decent HC. 

Actually I'm all for keeping howell. Like I said in an earlier post, at least we know he has grit and can sling it. I think he would be a great back up. I've been reading this board faithfully since the cult of colt, and sexy rely. I remember reading on this board that John beck had a chance to be good. So yes I've been around a long time, just never bothered to create an account and give my opinion til this year. You can't honestly believe that Sam has earned the starting job next year. Maybe he has earned a chance to compete for it but definitely hasn't shown enough to warrant us passing on qb this draft

[Going Commando]

Ron is such a a terrible coach.  Throw him in the pile of coaches with zero clue how to handle and develop QBs, and then throw them all in the dumpster.  Seeing how he has run this team the last four years really illuminates how Cam Newton must have had to rise above so much **** just to scratch out the success that he did have in the NFL.

 

I can't take another retread defensive coach, and almost all of the good young offensive assistants already got HC jobs the past several hiring cycles.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

54 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

What would be the case for keeping Sam as a starter ? Honestly? He looked good for like 4 games? An unbiased analytically inclined GM is going to look at the whole picture and imo, not really be all that impressed other than that he seems to always get up after he gets sacked a bunch. 
 

His numbers (box score and advanced) are middling at best and trending towards bad. He was just benched and had his biggest fan admit he probably wouldn’t be playing if the games were meaningful. The GM would have no ties to Sam. They’ll likely end the season losing 8 in a row. What would be the realistic case for keeping Sam over drafting your own QB (and they’re cheaper for longer contract) ? Only thing I could think of is if you end up picking 7th or later and even then, I think there’s potentially for them to draft a guy that will likely at least compete with Sam. 

 

I’m not saying he’s going to be an unquestioned starter or anything of that nature.  I just don’t think Ron’s opinion will have anything to do with anything, it’s completely irrelevant.  There will be a lot more context than QBR and team record being looked into before they decide which direction to go.

[mac8887]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I was just thinking something along these lines…

 

For a new FO - considering new ownership, coming off a dismal season, with huge question marks on the roster, and perhaps factoring in the need/drive to bring fans back - what’s the best move?  Start fresh at qb knowing the team could struggle next year, or use the pick to help build the roster.  Incremental improvement to look more competitive or swing for the fences (possibly taking longer to truly look competitive)?

Draft a top 3 qb?

Draft an exciting offensive weapon and have Sam and a vet duke it out?

Draft an OT?

Trade back to help add pieces to the roster (and/or add pick(s) for the future)?

 

If they roll with Sam or a vet, perhaps we look more competitive, but do we lose out in terms of the future looking bright?  Some serious questions…

I like drafting a qb with our 1st most

[profusion]

I'd imagine that the new analytics guy, Eugene Shen, has been quite busy preparing an analysis on Howell. It might be his main task this season. The new GM will probably have plenty to review when they come in.

 

So much depends on where they draft, but I'd imagine there will be detailed data-driven scenarios for every available QB, including Howell. Right now, it's hard to envision the Commanders drafting higher than #4 (unless the Cardinals and/or Patriots go on shocking runs the next two weeks), so the scenarios could be complicated.

[wit33]

11 hours ago, Conn said:

No thanks. Lamar needed to shed Roman to grow, he was borderline stunted. Roman had his place when mobile QB’s were more of an oddity in this era and needed to be coddled to fit in this league. This is a high floor option maybe, if you want to control the clock, run the ball, rebuild the defense to complement it. But it’s not going to get a young QB like Daniels where you want him to be as a passer, so in my view it’s immediately lowering his ceiling. You could look at it as providing guardrails against busting, and maybe you’d be right…but I’d also consider it putting a speed governor  on a premium asset, nowadays. 

MVP of the NFL and winning 74% of games is all good with me. Im sure Greg Roman has a different view on why a young raw Lamar Jackson didn’t excel in the pass game. 
 

I get what you’re saying, but escaping mediocrity over a number of seasons in the NFL during a rookie QB contract is appealing. Not campaigning, but like the idea of having an elite run game while attempting to develop a young passer. 

 

The idea that there’s a ceiling with this type of offense is false. For instance, Russell Wilson led his team to back-to-back Super Bowls, winning one. Colin Kaepernick also guided his team to a Super Bowl appearance and a Conference Championship game. Similarly, Cam Newton took his team to a Super Bowl. All of these were run-dominated offenses with relatively lower pass attempts (in the 400s) and around 3,500 passing yards.

 

During this time Aaron Rodgers the greatest passer of his generation had zero SB appearances. It’s rarely linear as to why things do or don’t work. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

What would be the case for keeping Sam as a starter ? Honestly? He looked good for like 4 games? An unbiased analytically inclined GM is going to look at the whole picture and imo, not really be all that impressed other than that he seems to always get up after he gets sacked a bunch. 
 

His numbers (box score and advanced) are middling at best and trending towards bad. He was just benched and had his biggest fan admit he probably wouldn’t be playing if the games were meaningful. The GM would have no ties to Sam. They’ll likely end the season losing 8 in a row. What would be the realistic case for keeping Sam over drafting your own QB (and their cheaper for longer contract) ? Only thing I could think of is if you end up picking 7th or later and even then, I think there’s potentially for them to draft a guy that will likely at least compete with Sam. 

The positives, he's basically been a positive asset or not the problem in 10 of 14 games. He's been appalling in 4 games, the underlying metrics for now mostly say he's a bottom third to bottom quartile QB league wide. But he also has amongst the worst playmakers in the league, and one of the worst OL's. He should not be given the job in any universe, but I'm definitely open to him winning the job and/or not drafting a QB. The class cut off is basically right around where we slot in, and I don't know how I feel about QB 4 and 5, and I don't want a bridge QB to screw up slotting for '25. I'd rather roll the dice w/a rookie or find out who sam is and get a great pick if the answer is "he's a backup". We aren't contending for ---- next year. The OL sucks, the playmakers suck, the entire defense is straight ---, the FO is about to get launched out of town via trebuchet. Here are playerprofiler's underlying metrics so far:

 

Accuracy Rating: 14th

True Completion Pct: 14th

Deep Ball Comp Pct: 24th

Pressured comp pct: 3rd

Play action Comp pct: 33rd

Red Zone Comp pct: 19th

Clean Pocket pct: 21st

True Passer rating: 21st

QBR: 22nd

EPA: 8th (fantasy stat)

Production Premium: 17th (fantasy stat w/relevance)

Red Zone Accuracy Rating: 30th

Deep Ball Accuracy Rating: 22nd

Clean Pocket Accuracy Rating: 17th

Deep Ball Catchable Ball Rating: 18th

Pressured Catchable Ball Rate: 23rd

Catchable Ball Rate: 29th

 

After that there's zone vs Man #'s, He's currently 19th in both in terms of accuracy rating which is probably the most important stat.

 

I think we have more of an answer now than we did before the schedule toughened up, but I don't think its clear yet. If the team loses out, it will be able to draft a QB if one of the top 3 falls in slotting or passes on QB and takes a different player. Otherwise, they'll go best available player, and consider QB with a round 2 or later pick. I would prefer not to target anyone in FA, Fields is interesting but I wouldn't trade for him, his rookie deal is up in one more year, and I wouldn't pay anything other than a day 3 pick, when all I have is 1+1 kind of deal on a guy (same reason I dont expect people to pay for Sam, even if he had continued to play solid rather than fallen off).

 

We need to bottom out and add assets for another year or two at least after this FO butchered draft after draft after draft, getting a bridge QB won't fix this, but it would screw up slotting. I hope they draft a QB, bring a Brissett styled clipboard guy, and give the ball to whomever wins in camp while we lose 12-15 again next year. 

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

If he was drafted in 2021, he’d probably get a better shot here. He needed to have been paired with a coach/GM that was roughly on the same timeline as he was. 

In fairness to him. He's gotten 15 games already to show what he's got. As a 5th rounder, that's more than 95% of them ever get, even if the situation was dire, which it was. He may still get more chances. He's shown enough that he likely will, somewhere, maybe here. But I don't feel too bad, beyond the physical beating, as day 3 picks usually barely get much of any reps to prove anything, they need luck and reps to have a chance, Sam got the latter. 

15 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

I'm betting you're spot on with this prediction....

The big problem games in late November/December for this prediction were always the Rams/Jets/Cowboys games, because the former 2 would have little to play for, and are in one case totally compromised and hopeless due to QB issues, and in the latter case, have nearly zero incentive to play starters in the finale. 2 of those 3 scenarios are still in play which would compromise our ability to draft a QB with our first pick (and we still need Arizona, or NE to win more or not select a QB too). 

 

We'll see what happens, but I'm not counting our pick as top 3-4 without us losing out, and I think losing out is still at best 50/50 to 40/60. 

[oraphus]

if Rivera doesnt do something stupid like install Brisset the starter we should still get a top 5 pick. Sam is a back up, hes gotten plenty of time to show what he's got... and he has shown he has a looong way to go. But a cheap backup is not a bad deal

 

[Koolblue13]

I'm going to state two irrefutable facts.

 

1- Howell is on a dirt cheap rookie deal and there is zero chance that he's cut 

 

2- Whoever our new coach/GM is, they can obviously see the buffoons running our offense and all the dumb coaching moves and players acquired and make a decision about Sam moving forward. 

 

Nobody is doing player evaluation on our guys right now and especially these past three eggs 

[profusion]

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Nobody is doing player evaluation on our guys right now and especially these past three eggs 

 

I assume that's what Eugene Shen is doing.

 

One problem is that picking anywhere below #4 likely puts us out of the elite QB sweepstakes. I have no idea what they'll do if that's the case. The other teams picking in the top 5 will also be wanting a QB. There was some thought that the Bears might go with Fields and trade down, but I can't see that happening.

[mac8887]

26 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The positives, he's basically been a positive asset or not the problem in 10 of 14 games. He's been appalling in 4 games, the underlying metrics for now mostly say he's a bottom third to bottom quartile QB league wide. But he also has amongst the worst playmakers in the league, and one of the worst OL's. He should not be given the job in any universe, but I'm definitely open to him winning the job and/or not drafting a QB. The class cut off is basically right around where we slot in, and I don't know how I feel about QB 4 and 5, and I don't want a bridge QB to screw up slotting for '25. I'd rather roll the dice w/a rookie or find out who sam is and get a great pick if the answer is "he's a backup". We aren't contending for ---- next year. The OL sucks, the playmakers suck, the entire defense is straight ---, the FO is about to get launched out of town via trebuchet. Here are playerprofiler's underlying metrics so far:

 

Accuracy Rating: 14th

True Completion Pct: 14th

Deep Ball Comp Pct: 24th

Pressured comp pct: 3rd

Play action Comp pct: 33rd

Red Zone Comp pct: 19th

Clean Pocket pct: 21st

True Passer rating: 21st

QBR: 22nd

EPA: 8th (fantasy stat)

Production Premium: 17th (fantasy stat w/relevance)

Red Zone Accuracy Rating: 30th

Deep Ball Accuracy Rating: 22nd

Clean Pocket Accuracy Rating: 17th

Deep Ball Catchable Ball Rating: 18th

Pressured Catchable Ball Rate: 23rd

Catchable Ball Rate: 29th

 

After that there's zone vs Man #'s, He's currently 19th in both in terms of accuracy rating which is probably the most important stat.

 

I think we have more of an answer now than we did before the schedule toughened up, but I don't think its clear yet. If the team loses out, it will be able to draft a QB if one of the top 3 falls in slotting or passes on QB and takes a different player. Otherwise, they'll go best available player, and consider QB with a round 2 or later pick. I would prefer not to target anyone in FA, Fields is interesting but I wouldn't trade for him, his rookie deal is up in one more year, and I wouldn't pay anything other than a day 3 pick, when all I have is 1+1 kind of deal on a guy (same reason I dont expect people to pay for Sam, even if he had continued to play solid rather than fallen off).

 

We need to bottom out and add assets for another year or two at least after this FO butchered draft after draft after draft, getting a bridge QB won't fix this, but it would screw up slotting. I hope they draft a QB, bring a Brissett styled clipboard guy, and give the ball to whomever wins in camp while we lose 12-15 again next year. 

 

 

 

I like our playmakers. Terry is great, so is b Rob. Curtis Samuel is good as well. Yes jahan and dyami have not looked like world beaters but I wouldn't call our playmakers one of the worst groups

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, profusion said:

 

I assume that's what Eugene Shen is doing.

 

One problem is that picking anywhere below #4 likely puts us out of the elite QB sweepstakes. I have no idea what they'll do if that's the case. The other teams picking in the top 5 will also be wanting a QB. There was some thought that the Bears might go with Fields and trade down, but I can't see that happening.

Not exactly what I meant. Of course guys get evaluated, just that it's not happening just now.