The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[clskinsfan]

32 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

We may have a serious decision to make, or they may just decide to land a top 2 OL in the class

That is the thing though isnt it? Will we hire a Gm that likes Howell and wants to put pieces around him? Or a guy that wants his guy...Thing is to me I dont see us drafting high enough to replace Howell with something better. Especially if Howell keeps ripping it the way he has the past two weeks. Will he have fails over the next 8 weeks? Yep. And probably really ugly ones like his pick last week. But you expect that from a young QB. And I can guarantee you whoever a new GM would want in here to replace him would make the same stupid mistakes. Thats what it takes to grow at the QB position.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I just wouldn't care personally. If Howell hits, which is what the don't trade up people are assuming, then you can write your own ticket with either player. This isn't a scenario where teams can hold you up because they know you can't hold onto two franchise QB's. There is no more valuable player in sports than a franchise QB. If Howell hits, and we stupidly traded 3 picks for Drake Maye and he's good too, we trade one of them for a giant pile of picks. 

 

Now again, if Howell appears to be a clear stud by January, well, maybe you just say, "Thank you heavens for delivering us our first franchise QB since Sammy Baugh"*, and draft to build out the team around him. 

 

That's what makes me so nervous. I'm terrified he's basically gonna be what he's been in aggregate so far: not bad, not great, just sometimes good, sometimes bad, and sometimes solid. I want him to lay down his marker as crap, or great or good, we need an answer. A question mark is a nightmare. 

 

How are you going to simultaneously find out if Howell and Maye are both franchise QBs, especially in the short period of time wed have before having to give Sam a new contract?

 

If you draft Maye and decide to start him in 2024 there won't be enough tape of Howell to know if he's the answer, which means you won't get much for him in a trade.

 

If you decide to play Howell and sit Maye for a season then you have no way of knowing if Maye is actually a franchise QB.

 

If Howell then evolves into a top franchise QB and you decide to trade Maye you're still not going to be able to get "franchise QB" trade value for him. So in a trade-up scenario that means we might give up three 1st round picks and then only be able to get, at most, one 1st rounder back for him, since he's completely unproven.

 

In either scenario nobody is giving up "a giant pile of picks" for either guy.

[MrJL]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

How are you going to simultaneously find out if Howell and Maye are both franchise QBs, especially in the short period of time wed have before having to give Sam a new contract?

 

If you draft Maye and decide to start him in 2024 there won't be enough tape of Howell to know if he's the answer, which means you won't get much for him in a trade.

 

If you decide to play Howell and sit Maye for a season then you have no way of knowing if Maye is actually a franchise QB.

 

If Howell then evolves into a top franchise QB and you decide to trade Maye you're still not going to be able to get "franchise QB" trade value for him. So in a trade-up scenario that means we might give up three 1st round picks and then only be able to get, at most, one 1st rounder back for him, since he's completely unproven.

 

In either scenario nobody is giving up "a giant pile of picks" for either guy.

if we draft a guy and keep Howell, we'll end up in a Brees/Rivers situation

[zCommander]

The NFL is taking notice of Howell. He is at cool #12.  

 

 

 

Rank

12

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-week-10-2023-nfl-season

Sam Howell

Washington Commanders · Year 2

2023 stats: 9 games | 66.6 pct | 2,471 pass yds | 7.0 ypa | 14 pass TD | 9 INT | 157 rush yds | 1 rush TD | 4 fumbles

 

Howell is steadily becoming more comfortable and confident in the pocket, and isn’t afraid to sling the rock around the yard to his cast of talented weapons. He threw a gorgeous touchdown pass down the middle of the field to Jahan Dotson and compiled a solid stat line in a win over the Patriots (29 of 45, 325 yards, one touchdown, one interception). He’s also good for a boneheaded mistake or two. On Sunday, it arrived in the form of a perplexing decision to toss a pass into a crowded end zone just before halftime instead of accepting defeat and living to play another down. Howell might eventually iron out those mistakes, but the Commanders will take them as part of the total Howell experience right now, because the good still outweighs the bad.

[Ball Security]

Top 10 plays (one non Howell play)

[Voice_of_Reason]

13 hours ago, KDawg said:

If we make a run I’m starting to think there is a chance Rivera stays. Which… I mean… not the best.

 

But a GM making decisions over him would make things… more palatable.

 

 

A certain poster is going to cringe to hear this, but if they go on a run because of the offense and Howell os a legitimate top 10 like QB by the end of the year, there’s an a very good chance EB returns as OC whether Ron stays or not.  
 

Dungy kept the OC and most of rhe offensive staff when he took over the colts because the offense was humming and he didn’t want to break it.  
 

Long way to go before that happens.

 

I actually think Sunday is high noon for the season for the Commanders.  They have to get to 9 wins to make the playoffs.  It’s hard to find 5 more wins if you lose to Seattle.  

[Ball Security]

3 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

A certain poster is going to cringe to hear this, but if they go on a run because of the offense and Howell os a legitimate top 10 like QB by the end of the year, there’s an a very good chance EB returns as OC whether Ron stays or not.  
 

Dungy kept the OC and most of rhe offensive staff when he took over the colts because the offense was humming and he didn’t want to break it.  
 

Long way to go before that happens.

 

I actually think Sunday is high noon for the season for the Commanders.  They have to get to 9 wins to make the playoffs.  It’s hard to find 5 more wins if you lose to Seattle.  

Maybe. Outside of Dallas and Seattle, who do you think can get to nine wins and that third wildcard spot? Atlanta with their new QB? Eight wins could snag that last spot.

[HigSkin]

FWIW - On The Junkies this morning, EB and Lurch mentioned they heard coaching changes are coming and the players know it.  It's not the first they've said it. They weren't specific and didn't say if it's all coaches or what but it's seems like the worst kept secret around the park.

 

Also, Lurch has said several times recently "what if Bienemy was brought in to be RR's replacement?".  Again, don't know what to think but he seems a bit plugged in, at least people inside the park and a few players.

 

Makes you think maybe a GM is already operating behind the curtains or something.

 

Fun offseason coming to say the least.

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by HigSkin

[MartinC]

32 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

A certain poster is going to cringe to hear this, but if they go on a run because of the offense and Howell os a legitimate top 10 like QB by the end of the year, there’s an a very good chance EB returns as OC whether Ron stays or not.  
 

Dungy kept the OC and most of rhe offensive staff when he took over the colts because the offense was humming and he didn’t want to break it.  
 

Long way to go before that happens.

 

I actually think Sunday is high noon for the season for the Commanders.  They have to get to 9 wins to make the playoffs.  It’s hard to find 5 more wins if you lose to Seattle.  

The defense is going to have to be MUCH better for us to win 9 games almost whatever the offense does. I can’t see it. I’m thinking 7 wins is the ceiling.

 

By the way watching Bryce Young play tonight just underlines what a crap shoot it is drafting rookie QBs. He was great in College but looks lost right now in the Panthers offense. Sam Howell > any QB we are likely to be able to draft this coming offseason.

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

That is the thing though isnt it? Will we hire a Gm that likes Howell and wants to put pieces around him? Or a guy that wants his guy...Thing is to me I dont see us drafting high enough to replace Howell with something better. Especially if Howell keeps ripping it the way he has the past two weeks. Will he have fails over the next 8 weeks? Yep. And probably really ugly ones like his pick last week. But you expect that from a young QB. And I can guarantee you whoever a new GM would want in here to replace him would make the same stupid mistakes. Thats what it takes to grow at the QB position.

I don't care about mistakes in lost seasons, I care about ceiling and potential likelihood to reach it. That's why I didn't give a ---- about the Bears or Giants games. I want to see him show me that he has franchise QB in himself. I don't know if he does or not. He's definitely passed my floor expectation though, and he's looked better than I think anyone could have reasonably expected. So far so good. But he needs to make it a no doubt about it, and its not there yet (and as others have said, it may not matter, if we're too far away from slot 1-2, and don't like any of the other guys a lot it won't matter). 

Edited November 10, 2023 by The Consigliere

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Maybe. Outside of Dallas and Seattle, who do you think can get to nine wins and that third wildcard spot? Atlanta with their new QB? Eight wins could snag that last spot.

now that you mention it, you have a point.

 

The wild card (no pun intended) is actually the Vikings.  They’re not a terrible team, if Donna can play a bit, they can win 4 more games. They have the Saints, Broncos, Bears, Raiders, Lions (twice) and Packers left.  The Bears, Broncos, Raiders and Packers are all bad.  
 

I think they could get to 9.  
 

I also think if it’s 8 and in, we’re not going to in a great position because we’re not going to have a hot conference record because we’re not going to do well in division. And conference record is the first non-head to head tie breaker.  

 

I still think we likely have to get to 9.  8 might do it but we’d have to win a tie breaker and I’m not sure we would…

[Conn]

Just wanted to share that I read a tweet where someone described Howell as lacking Object Permanence because of his endzone INT and it made me actually laugh aloud to myself 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

FWIW - On The Junkies this morning, EB and Lurch mentioned they heard coaching changes are coming and the players know it.  It's not the first they've said it. They weren't specific and didn't say if it's all coaches or what but it's seems like the worst kept secret around the park.

 

Also, Lurch has said several times recently "what if Bienemy was brought in to be RR's replacement?".  Again, don't know what to think but he seems a bit plugged in, at least people inside the park and a few players.

 

Makes you think maybe a GM is already operating behind the curtains or something.

 

Fun offseason coming to say the least.

 

 

The junkies know nothing and speculate at will. 

[Warhead36]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

The junkies know nothing and speculate at will. 

Yeah none of them are reporters or have real sources. 

 

Now if Chris Russell says something, I'd listen. I'm not a big fan of his but he is an actual reporter and has sources inside the organization.

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, Conn said:

Just wanted to share that I read a tweet where someone described Howell as lacking Object Permanence because of his endzone INT and it made me actually laugh aloud to myself 

If you made a bet with me this morning for all the money in my left front pocket I would see the phrase “object permanence” on ES, I’d have taken the bet and lost all the money in my left front pocket. 
 

Which is nothing but I would still have lost,  

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Yeah none of them are reporters or have real sources. 

 

Now if Chris Russell says something, I'd listen. I'm not a big fan of his but he is an actual reporter and has sources inside the organization.

They had sources when Bruce was here. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah none of them are reporters or have real sources. 

 

Now if Chris Russell says something, I'd listen. I'm not a big fan of his but he is an actual reporter and has sources inside the organization.

Also, “EB brought in to replace Rivera” doesn’t even pass the laugh test.  
 

Josh didn’t even own the team when EB was hired. Dan didn’t care and couldn’t plan for the future.  And Ron wouldn’t hire his own replacement.

 

It’s odd how they have the following they do for being so bad. 
 

Russell is a pontificating bafoon who’s only sources we’re awful DCs (Barry and Manusky) who he defended and looked like a dope.

 

He’s only better than Mr 2 minutes because he’s allowed in the building to attend press conferences. Otherwise he’s the same.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Voice_of_Reason

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

And Ron wouldn’t hire his own replacement.

I’m not so sure. I often get the vibe that he is planning to retire regardless.

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I’m not so sure. I often get the vibe that he is planning to retire regardless.

Nah.  He’s actively campaigning to keep his job.  

[Califan007 The Constipated]

8 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

That throw actually made me rewatch the NFL footage of him when we drafted him. The segment where DJ was dropping over him. That exact type of pass was shown at the time. Plus his fearless scrambling.

 

I watched that again as well lol...like you said, that exact type of throw and his pinball scrambling both jumped out after the Patriots game.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I watched tonight's game and it's not hard to come away thinking Howell has a better future than the 1st overall pick. I know we all have biases, and Carolina fans would have theirs with Young, but I need an unbiased take to sell me on someone lots of NFL teams thought was the 1st overall pick. And then how that pick isn't already a bust. And then how the NFL community at large is evaluating Howell based on his draft position.

 

I'm going to be plain, right now, Bryce Young can't play in the NFL. He's an extra data point for failure. He's also a pre-draft outlier.

 

Can this improve? I don't think so, but I'm not an expert.

[CapsSkins]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

I watched tonight's game and it's not hard to come away thinking Howell has a better future than the 1st overall pick. I know we all have biases, and Carolina fans would have theirs with Young, but I need an unbiased take to sell me on someone lots of NFL teams thought was the 1st overall pick. And then how that pick isn't already a bust. And then how the NFL community at large is evaluating Howell based on his draft position.

 

I'm going to be plain, right now, Bryce Young can't play in the NFL. He's an extra data point for failure. He's also a pre-draft outlier.

 

Can this improve? I don't think so, but I'm not an expert.

 

Bryce Young is getting so much slack and support from League analysts simply because of his draft pedigree. If Howell had gone 1OA, everyone would be touting him as the next big star QB. And if Young had gone in the fifth round, everyone would already be calling him a career backup at best & definitively not the answer for Carolina. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Veretax]

Speaking of Howell seeing a lot of break down vids from recent games and people seem optimistic.  I'm not saying he's Peyton or Brady, but I wonder if he could be serviceable a while like a certain other ACC QB was in Atlanta and Houstan (Matt Schaub).  And may give us the windoe to retool the core of the O and D while we figure out if he's worth the third contract.  At the moment I'd strongly be leaning toward early extension talks next year unless he craters at years end .

[Going Commando]

9 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Nah.  He’s actively campaigning to keep his job.  

 

Kind of feels like that's really more of a campaign to keep everyone else's job.  A lot of people depend on him staying in charge here.  I can see a world where he steps back into a senior FO role and gives Bieniemy all of the day to day HC duties, and Harris hires some more FO people, with only a few changes to the assistant coaching staff coming.

 

I don't hate that outcome at all, and it's what I'd encourage if I were the owner.  I'd let Bieniemy and Rivera finish their contracts here, give Howell another season with them, and then reassess everyone at the end of 2024.