The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

At this point I think it'd be a mistake to jettison EB and make Sam learn his 4th playbook in 4 years. EB has earned a 2nd year with his recent tweaks to his game plan.  If a GM can't build around a Sam/EB pair I am happy to tell them to remain unemployed.

I don't wanna force anything on the new GM. They should have carte blanche to build the team how they see fit. One of the biggest problems with the Snyder Era was that he constantly forced players on to regimes or vice versa.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, RandyHolt said:

At this point I think it'd be a mistake to jettison EB and make Sam learn his 4th playbook in 4 years. EB has earned a 2nd year with his recent tweaks to his game plan.  If a GM can't build around a Sam/EB pair I am happy to tell them to remain unemployed.

 

The issue is the HC.

 

Generally speaking, in today's environment, you want an offensive guy. Offense drives the league. So when you hire an offensive guy, they are going to call their offense. Which means the incumbent is out. 

 

Would that be EB? Not sure. I'm not out on him yet. He has made major strides in the way he calls the game the last two weeks.

 

Ben Johnson is a guy I'd love and I don't think it hurts Howell much. 

[Chris 44]

53 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Here's another Howell loft that will make Pocket Passing Protocol Purists P4^TM  heads explode

 

 

This was probably his best throw of the game.

[Chris 44]

49 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I dont understand people that don't think a new coach and GM wouldn't jump at the chance to continue to mold Howell. He is very young and coach able, there are no mysteries surrounding work ethic, dedication or off field issues that are often a crap shoot with a draft pick. He's essentially a rookie without the unknown issues.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Chris 44

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

I dont understand people that don't think a new coach and GM wouldn't jump at the chance to continue to mold Howell. He is very young and coach able, there are no mysteries surrounding work ethic, dedication or off field issues that are often a crap shoot with a draft pick. He's essentially a rookie without the unknown issues.

 

 

that goes double considering the history of this franchise at the QB spot.

 

I'd say almost no chance a new coach or GM would come here and throw away immediately would looks like could be a franchise QB.  It would be instant job suicide here if he did that if Howell thrived elsewhere and the new one struggled.  It would be beyond odd.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Chris 44]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

that goes double considering the history of this franchise at the QB spot.

 

I'd say almost no chance a new coach or GM would come here and throw away immediately would looks like could be a franchise QB.  It would be instant job suicide here if he did that if Howell thrived elsewhere and the new one struggled.  It would be beyond odd.

This doest even include the draft picks we have available to build the team without using any on a QB. It's almost a perfect situation for a new front office.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

I don't think you realize how good Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been this season. And I don't mean "you" as in you, the reader, and certainly don't mean it in a condescending way. 

I mean it generally. It feels like Howell's breakout season in Washington has gone largely unnoticed, maybe because his team is 4-5? Maybe because he's gotten sacked a bunch? Or -- I know! -- maybe it's because he was a fifth-round pick in 2022. 

In reality, a combination of those three things has probably led to the relative under-the-radar feel of Howell's second year in the NFL. But Howell currently has the highest-grade (B- and trending very close to a in my weekly young quarterback evaluation series among those passers with at least 100 attempts to date. A higher grade than Brock Purdy and, yes, even C.J. Stroud. Don't forget too, he enters Week 10 second in the NFL in passing yards. 

Let's circle back to Howell's draft status. 

Starting the new millenium in the Year 2000, there've been 169 quarterbacks selected in the fourth round or later. 

 

The widely considered greatest quarterback in NFL history, Tom Brady, was one of them, famously picked at No. 199 overall, in the sixth round by the Patriots in the 2000 draft.

Since then, the hit rate on those later-round passers has been, to be blunt, brutal. Now, have some serviceable backups and spot starters been found in Round 4 and beyond over the past 24 drafts? Of course. Quarterbacks of legitimate, long-term substance, franchise passers? Not really. Only a few, really. 

There's Kirk Cousins, selected by Washington in 2012 after selling the farm to pick Robert Griffin III three rounds earlier. Then Dak Prescott, a Cowboys fourth-round pick in 2016 and, maybe, just maybe, Brock Purdy, whom the 49ers made Mr. Irrelevant in 2022.

 

Can't forget Ryan Fitzpatrick either, a seventh-round pick by the then St. Louis Rams in 2005, who became the ultimate journeyman with plenty of short-lived peaks. He falls somewhere between both classifications. 

And now we get to Howell, a fifth-round selection by the Commanders in 2022. Clearly, based on history, most Day 3 quarterback selections aren't too fascinating. Howell's an exception because before his final season at North Carolina, he was universally regarded as a future first-round pick, and to many, the finest quarterback prospect to be available in the 2022 draft. 

But as the 2021 Tar Heels faltered after losing plenty of talent to the NFL, most notably Howell's two star receivers and both dynamic running backs, his stock plummeted and five passers were selected in front of him. As a rookie in Washington, Howell chilled on the bench before starting the season finale in which he only threw the football 19 times in a surprising Commanders win over the playoff-bound Cowboys.

 

This season, Howell has made "the leap." Does that mean he's been absolutely perfect or should be in the MVP race. No. But he's clearly taken a sizable step forward and has routinely connected on throws the vast majority of young quarterbacks simply cannot make. Check how Howell stacks up in the Big-Time Throw (BTT) department with these, let's say, rather well-known passers: 

	BTTS THROUGH FIRST 10 NFL STARTS	BTT RATE
Deshaun Watson	25	7.5%
Patrick Mahomes	26	7.3%
Baker Mayfield	26	7.3%
Sam Howell	23	5.9%
Jalen Hurts	20	5.8%
Josh Allen	16	5.7%
Justin Herbert	19	4.7%
Trevor Lawrence	16	4.4%
Joe Burrow	15	3.7%

Attention-grabbing, isn't it? And Jalen Hurts is the only other quarterback in that chart who wasn't selected in the first round over the past 10 years. 

 

Of course, quarterbacks shouldn't only be measured by big-time throws and the rates in which they generate them. But, with increasing prevalence of easy, schemed open throws in every NFL offense, it's becoming those BTTs that play a key role in separating the bad from the good, and the good from the great at the quarterback position. 

 

In short, if my quarterback isn't capable of ripping a few big-time throws per game, I'm probably going to need a nearly perfect outing from my offensive coordinator, offensive line, receivers, and running backs to win in most occasions and especially against the most challenging competition. That's a big ask. From the quarterback's perspective, if he can't make those high-degree of difficulty throws, he'll need to be surgical with his accuracy and process like a brand new Mac computer to succeed in the NFL. Another big ask. 

 

And sure, Howell has taken an absurd amount of sacks. His current 11.2% sack rate is high but not unprecedentedly high for a quarterback this early in his professional career. Also, it's common for quality quarterbacks to decrease their sack rate drop as they move forward in their development process. And Howell has certainly proven to be developing in 2023. 

 

Like the sacks, the interceptions and/or turnover-worthy plays have to come down too. Those turnover problems can linger longer than sacks for young quarterbacks, but let's not forget Howell has just completed playing half a regular-season worth of games in the NFL. If he finishes the 2023 season with somewhere between 13-17 interceptions, it won't be overly concerning, particularly if he counters those with 40-plus big-time throws, which is where he's tracking. 

 

Based on what he's shown to date, I believe Howell can be the best Day 3 quarterback since Brady. His competition for that title is most notably Cousins and Prescott. Staying with the BTT theme, Prescott registered nine of them with a tiny 2.8% rate as a rookie in Dallas in 2016. Cousins didn't start his 10th game until his fourth professional season. At the completion of that contest, he had 23 BTTs to his name at a sizable 6.3%, a percentage point higher than Howell. 

And the Commanders youngster is a better athlete than Cousins, a physical skill set probably in Prescott's range yet he's already shown more wherewithal and willingness as a runner than either of the veterans. 

 

[RandyHolt]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't wanna force anything on the new GM. They should have carte blanche to build the team how they see fit. One of the biggest problems with the Snyder Era was that he constantly forced players on to regimes or vice versa.

Sure we are not going to slam the door on an elite candidate but I do think it may be counter productive to fully re-invent the wheel and axe every coach as a priority to get "his guys" in there. Its a myth NFL rebuilds take 5 years. You retool right and you can win it all in a year or 2. Lucky our GM has more time to evaluate the pair but I will say this - the GM's new OC better be better than EB or the new GM is going to have mud on his face. Even if the new GM retains EB for continuity or to compete in year 1, he can still fire him any time he wants or needs. Have his guy be an assistant ready to go. I don't see much downside risk to retain him. This all assumes Sam likes EB...

 

Also, I have grown tired of good young coaching prospects being cast away and turn into great coaches, and their replacements suck.

 

Jack and Ron and their kids must go. The rest can be evaluated one by one.

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by RandyHolt

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

If we make a run I’m starting to think there is a chance Rivera stays. Which… I mean… not the best.

 

But a GM making decisions over him would make things… more palatable.

 

 

 

I pretty much remain 100% convinced that we will not make a run barring one thing, and that's December tanking (looking at LA and the NYJ), and December resting (looking at SF and Dallas). If every team plays all out, we'll end up winning 5-7 games. Now if things get funny in December, anything can happen. The Rams traded away so much draft capital the past four years or so that they badly need to tank to reboot everywhere including QB, while the Jets having lost Aaron Rodgers, badly need to be in position to get a QB replacement for the utterly predictable failure of the obvious bust QB Zach Wilson (I've been more shocked than others at Justin Fields struggles, but I feel like the only people surprised at Zach Wilson busting have been the Jets, and media reporters for the mocks that persisted in their inexplicable rankings of Wilson (usually QB3 or QB4, seems like only the jets were stupid enough to have him higher than that). 

 

I think if teams play like their normal selves in December, we're probably looking at 6-7 wins now, the only thing that changes my perception any is that a game I figured the Giants could win before seems out the window now. Its not that Daniel Jones is good or even average, its that whats behind him is bad for a backup, let alone a starter. So Looking at the schedule, if everyone plays to win, I think:

Lose at Seattle

Win vs NY

Lose at Dallas

Lose hosting Dolphins

Toss Up/Loss at LA

Toss Up Loss at NYJ

Loss hosting SF

Loss hosting Dallas

 

That's basically 1-3 wins so 5-8 on the season, but again, the last four games could turn on roster management for the playoffs and for draft slotting. Rams aren't going to the playoffs, and Jets are perennially in danger of slipping out of the hunt with this idiot QB, so anything could happen. I fully expect us to be 5-8 heading into that 4 game stretch, but anything can happen in those four games. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Edited November 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[gortiz]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't wanna force anything on the new GM. They should have carte blanche to build the team how they see fit. One of the biggest problems with the Snyder Era was that he constantly forced players on to regimes or vice versa.

 i agree but if sam and EB keep the trajectory of the last two games going through the end of the season and a new GM comes in and gets rid of them .... oof. that will be a hard pill to swallow. again, if the progress is consistently positive through these last 8 games. 

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

mark has been real critical of RR and Co ... much more so than years past.  I think he's done just talking X's and O's lol 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, gortiz said:

 i agree but if sam and EB keep the trajectory of the last two games going through the end of the season and a new GM comes in and gets rid of them .... oof. that will be a hard pill to swallow. again, if the progress is consistently positive through these last 8 games. 

mark has been real critical of RR and Co ... much more so than years past.  I think he's done just talking X's and O's lol 

 

Among his points the one I agree with him the most is Wentz.  It's not just that it was an idiotic trade as to compensation.  But he did say at the time they are a QB away.  He also bragged about how this is the big year for a leap, they will win that year.

 

When they didn't win.  He didn't own the point.  He shrugged it off.

 

Now in year 4 he's defiant about how this isn't a win now year and it shouldn't be.  Ridiculous. So year 3, yes but year 4, nope.

 

And he wants fans-media to give him a break as if this is year 1 for him of the rebuild.  A young and upcoming team that we need to have patience for.

 

In the last off season he said this is the first time he can do some real roster building, whatever that means.  Now he says the edge rushers needed to be traded in part so he can rebalance the roster -- so in effect he admitted he made a mistake to have so much money in the O line.

 

What next is Ron selling?

 

If he won, he wouldn't have to be continally changing his spin.  

Edited November 9, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

I really don’t understand the “if Ron stays” discussion. His chance was to have a great offseason and a great season. He’s had neither. He’s made it an easy decision for Harris.

[Warhead36]

Drafting Howell was the equivalent of a bum who makes poor financial decisions winning the lottery. Doesn't mean I'd trust him to run my portfolio.

[oraphus]

its pretty interesting with what's happening now... we have never had a good enough passing game to truly understand the value and overall capabilities of our WRs so this season is a great learning tool and confirmation because we tend to overate our players, what i am seeing is:

1. Terry is very good, not great. He will likely never be great but a very good 1B

2. Jahan is a Good WR, not very good (at least not yet) - good complimentary piece 2A/ 1C

3. Samuels is good to very good with specific game planning.. but his production can be easily replaced and he is gone after this season anyway.

4. A great TE in EB system will be worth his weight in Gold. Thomas is ok/good but old and inj prone. TE upgrade is a must 

 

Upgrade at WR in the next draft should absolutely be on the table.. but only if the GM thinks he can be a true 1A

 

This could push other WRs down the board and allow us to have a truly elite group. Also, it gives us options when Terrys contract expires to let him walk and/ or sign or let Doctson walk.  

[Thinking Skins]

 

 

 

[gortiz]

6 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

 

this has to be priority #1 ... at this point in time I rather sam be protected and get sacked less than 2 times than win, honestly.   CJ Stroud went three games in a row this year without getting sacked once.  its almost impossible to imagine that with sam right now ... and that's a damn shame. 

[srtman04]

24 minutes ago, gortiz said:

this has to be priority #1 ... at this point in time I rather sam be protected and get sacked less than 2 times than win, honestly.   CJ Stroud went three games in a row this year without getting sacked once.  its almost impossible to imagine that with sam right now ... and that's a damn shame. 

 

CJ Stroud also has a much better O-line than we do.   They actually have starters there,  we have backups at best.  

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Chris 44 said:

I dont understand people that don't think a new coach and GM wouldn't jump at the chance to continue to mold Howell. He is very young and coach able, there are no mysteries surrounding work ethic, dedication or off field issues that are often a crap shoot with a draft pick. He's essentially a rookie without the unknown issues.

 

I think it depends entirely on whether or not they think they can access talent that's better or not. If you can trade up for an elite franchise QB in a legit draft, and this one has some of those, then you do it. If you end up with two great QBs thats not really a problem, you can then spin them out for goodies like the Eagles did w/crappy Wentz, like the Packers did for years in the later nineties and early aughts etc, but if you're sold on Howell, or sold enough considering the cost to move up, you probably stand pat.

 

It depends on where we're slotted in January after the season, how Howell plays in the 2nd half of the season, and whom we hire. 

 

It's also worth noting, the '24 class definitely looks better than '25, so the strategy of cratering with Howell after giving him another season probably just pushes us into another '19 class, that might have 1 or 2 QB's, maybe, w/1st round grades, for now, just like those awful '19 and '22 classes (though i definitely think '25 looks a little better than '19 and '22, it isn't '17-'18, or '20-'21, and '23). 

[method man]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

The issue is the HC.

 

Generally speaking, in today's environment, you want an offensive guy. Offense drives the league. So when you hire an offensive guy, they are going to call their offense. Which means the incumbent is out. 

 

Would that be EB? Not sure. I'm not out on him yet. He has made major strides in the way he calls the game the last two weeks.

 

Ben Johnson is a guy I'd love and I don't think it hurts Howell much. 

One of Ben Johnson’s strengths is to tailor a system to his team. I think this attribute would make it easy on Sam to learn his system. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Among his points the one I agree with him the most is Wentz.  It's not just that it was an idiotic trade as to compensation.  But he did say at the time they are a QB away.  He also bragged about how this is the big year for a leap, they will win that year.

 

When they didn't win.  He didn't own the point.  He shrugged it off.

 

Now in year 4 he's defiant about how this isn't a win now year and it shouldn't be.  Ridiculous. So year 3, yes but year 4, nope.

 

And he wants fans-media to give him a break as if this is year 1 for him of the rebuild.  A young and upcoming team that we need to have patience for.

 

In the last off season he said this is the first time he can do some real roster building, whatever that means.  Now he says the edge rushers needed to be traded in part so he can rebalance the roster -- so in effect he admitted he made a mistake to have so much money in the O line.

 

What next is Ron selling?

 

If he won, he wouldn't have to be continally changing his spin.  

 

He should not be back. He got his four years. The team is basically the same it was when he got here: a crappy team with a subpar defense and a subpar offense years away from relevance. He built nothing other than a fumigation of the franchise reputation which i'm greatly appreciative of but so what, he got his four years, he shouldn't get an extension for having utterly botched all of the most important decisions of his term as HC. Botched the '20 and '21 drafts horrendously, leaving Tua, and Herbert on the table, and then leaving a trade up for Fields or Mac Jones on the table. Regardless of what you thought of any of those QB's, a roster without a franchise QB in place, or a speculative one acquired, is a roster going nowhere. They thought Chase Young and a freaking reach LB ranked lower than JOK who went exactly where our 2nd rounder was scheduled for in round 2 went (and has been the better pro to boot) were more important than figuring out a long term answer for QB, importing a cancer that they brought in to replace the cancer they'd just ejected. 

 

The grand mal stupidity of how '20 and '21 offseasons were handled was firing worthy to begin with. the fact that the stupidity persisted is criminal, in a sporting sense. 

 

No chance he should return, none.

 

The saving grace is the schedule is so rough, that barring teams indulging funny business, it's hard to see more than 3 to 3.5 more wins on the schedule, and finishing 7-10 in year 4 of your rebuild isn't exactly a case for an extension. 

[Est.1974]

Howell has stud potential. We’d be pretty stupid to discard that in 2024.

 

I appreciate the Org is in transition and there are lots of factors in play. However, a QB on a 5th rounder contract showing great potential…..

 

I mean, that’s a gimme starting point right ?

 

100mil in cap space and draft picks falling out of your pockets. No brainer to build around Sam. Or at least try to initially.

[illone]

6 hours ago, KDawg said:

If we make a run I’m starting to think there is a chance Rivera stays. Which… I mean… not the best.

 

But a GM making decisions over him would make things… more palatable.

 

 

there is definitely a pathway for this to happen. 
 

I’ll add it also depends who will be available. If the alternative is neutral or worse, no harm in running it back one more season. 

 

Definitely have to make a run, though. 7 wins isnt going to make anyone feel good about another year. 

[OtisDriftwood25]

If Ron gave up all front office ability and we won 8 or 9 games, I wouldn’t be opposed to him coming back. That would also require keeping EB and having autonomy to replace Del Rio depending on how the season ends.

 

I prefer to have a coach with better motivation and X and O’s like the one in Arizona.

[NoCalMike]

Considering the season Howell has had so far, I'd question any HC/GM candidate who wanted to start 2024 with a different starting QB.  Now sure, Howell is still early enough in his career that we could see him plateau and eventually regress over his next say 10-20 games played, but you actually need him to play another season to see if there is any regression or slump to be had in the first place.  In what world, based on what we have seen from Howell so far, would you not want to see him with an additional offseason, pieces placed around etc etc....start in 2024?  

 

It doesn't matter who is on the draft board because as we have seen in the past there is no magic formula for drafting a QB regardless of how they looked in college and we'd be starting over at Step 1 of the process.