The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Chris 44]

15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

You just had to "there" didn't you.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

All things are not equal with Hurts and Howell.  Hurts had a better supporting cast the entire time and it’s only gotten better year to year.  Better defense, miles better OL, better running games and better weapons.  Hurts has the pleasure of playing for a forward thinking organization that is always making moves to get better.  The Eagles bet on now, every season.  
 

 

[KDawg]

Holy biscuits, folks.

 

Holy biscuits.

 

We are breaking down Sam Howell like he’s supposed to be a top 5 QB right now in his “rookie year of starts” with an abysmal OL and mixed playcalling.

 

Even sans that, he was NEVER GOING TO BE A TOP 5 guy this year. He just wasn’t. Not many rookies come in and get to that level. I’m almost inclined to say ever.

 

”I don’t see him getting there, either.” C’mon. You could say this about 95% of the quarterbacks to come out and you’d be right. This is a high percentage “I was right” shot just to shoot.

 

it’s absolutely insane how we’re arguing about one of the more successful overall players on the team this year in a way that makes it seem like he’s disappointed. 
 

He’s made mistakes. He’s going to keep making them. That’s what young QBs do.

 

Yes, he throws a lot. Yes, his stats are skewed (that goes for the negative ones, too, like sacks and interceptions) Yes, #9 in accuracy is more than adequate considering the playcalls and the line. No, it’s not considered elite.

 

So what?

 

Let the kid develop before we nit pick him to death.

 

Oh, and he may not pan out. That’s absolutely true. But let’s let him develop. He’s better than 85% of this forum ever gave him a shot of being.

 

”he’s a fifth rounder for a reason…”

 

Has somehow morphed into, “he’s a fifth rounder for a reason but I want him To be Patrick Mahomes right now”

 

Make it make sense. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by KDawg

[Die Hard]

56 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Holy biscuits, folks.

 

Holy biscuits.

 

We are breaking down Sam Howell like he’s supposed to be a top 5 QB right now in his “rookie year of starts” with an abysmal OL and mixed playcalling.

 

Even sans that, he was NEVER GOING TO BE A TOP 5 guy this year. He just wasn’t. Not many rookies come in and get to that level. I’m almost inclined to say ever.

 

”I don’t see him getting there, either.” C’mon. You could say this about 95% of the quarterbacks to come out and you’d be right. This is a high percentage “I was right” shot just to shoot.

 

it’s absolutely insane how we’re arguing about one of the more successful overall players on the team this year in a way that makes it seem like he’s disappointed. 
 

He’s made mistakes. He’s going to keep making them. That’s what young QBs do.

 

Yes, he throws a lot. Yes, his stats are skewed (that goes for the negative ones, too, like sacks and interceptions) Yes, #9 in accuracy is more than adequate considering the playcalls and the line. No, it’s not considered elite.

 

So what?

 

Let the kid develop before we nit pick him to death.

 

Oh, and he may not pan out. That’s absolutely true. But let’s let him develop. He’s better than 85% of this forum ever gave him a shot of being.

 

”he’s a fifth rounder for a reason…”

 

Has somehow morphed into, “he’s a fifth rounder for a reason but I want him To be Patrick Mahomes right now”

 

Make it make sense. 

Not backing off my earlier projection. He’ll be a top 10 QB in the NFL. However, I wasn’t expecting that this year. But what I see, I like a lot. He definitely has some things to work on (pocket awareness, escaping the pocket moving forward, throwing the ball away, reading plays quicker, etc)… and he’s going through some growing pains. But his teammates aren’t making any easier for him. And despite that, he stands in the pocket until the last second, has great placement on tough throws, and can throw off platform, can make some plays with his feet… there’s a lot to like and work with. I’m pretty bullish on him.

[SkinsGuy]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

he’s a fifth rounder for a reason…”

 

Has somehow morphed into, “he’s a fifth rounder for a reason but I want him To be Patrick Mahomes right now”

 

 

So true.

 

I don't get the impatience regarding Howell.

 

He's a young QB, practically a rookie, and still learning. 

 

It's not like Washington is contending in any way this year, so what's the rush?

 

Let him play and get the experience he needs to grow into the job.

 

Ultimately,  he may not be the guy, but we won't know that by being impatient with him.

Edited November 3, 2023 by SkinsGuy

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[zCommander]

23 hours ago, PeterMP said:

If you want to argue he's doing well given the OL, that's different.  But that's a more nebulous argument and more difficult to make.  And you can try to make essentially that same argument based on the more rating/advanced states.  e.g. Hey, he's only middle of the pack in completion % but most of the people ahead of him are playing behind much better OL (note, I'm not saying that's true, but that would be the argument).

 

 

Okay.

 

Here are the top 10 ranked OL right now. Look at where we are and still Howell is ranked #9. I would say Howell is doing really well given the circumstances along with the higher number of passes he has been asked to do since our OL doesn't have a run game. 

 

2023 Midseason Offensive Line Rankings

1. Philadelphia Eagles.

2. Detroit Lions.

3. Cleveland Browns.

4. Baltimore Ravens.

5. Kansas City Chiefs.

6. Dallas Cowboys.

7. Los Angeles Chargers.

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

9. Indianapolis Colts

10. Miami Dolphins

11. San Francisco 49ers

..............

29. Washington Commanders

[PeterMP]

So a few things:

1.  In terms of more weapons for the Eagles, Hurts first year as a starter they didn't have AJ Brown.  DeVonta Smith started 16 games (as a rookie).  Quez Watkins started 12 games.  Jalen Reagor started 17 games.  And Ertz got hurt and only played in 6 games starting 3.  And Hurts had the most rushing yards.

 

So I'm not sure that comparing Hurts to Howell in their first year is unfair to Howell in terms of the quality of weapons.  If anything, it seems me we have the better weapons.

 

2.  On the OL, Dickerson started 13 games as rookie and they had to start Jack Driscoll, who they've never used as a starter regularly, 9 games, and then some other random guys that have never played much also started games.  That OL is not the OL that they've been the last few years.  Wentz had been sacked 50 times (10.3%) in 12 games behind many of the same people the year before.  Howell is at 13.6% sack rate.  A lot of people recognized a lot of the sacks were on Wentz in 2020, but that wasn't considered a great or even good OL.  Hurts first year especially, they used the RO a lot to keep defenses honest to let them run the ball and to keep pressure off of him.  I'm not saying it was as bad our OL is, but that OL wasn't what it is today or last year.  And maybe things would look better if we ran more RO, which isn't on Howell.  But I think people are mis-remembering that 2021 Eagles team.

Edited November 3, 2023 by PeterMP

[tmandoug1]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

The only reason the Steelers ar 4 and 3 is their defense.....period.

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, Die Hard said:

Not backing off my earlier projection. He’ll be a top 10 QB in the NFL. However, I wasn’t expecting that this year. But what I see, I like a lot. He definitely has some things to work on (pocket awareness, escaping the pocket moving forward, throwing the ball away, reading plays quicker, etc)… and he’s going through some growing pains. But his teammates aren’t making any easier for him. And despite that, he stands in the pocket until the last second, has great placement on tough throws, and can throw off platform, can make some plays with his feet… there’s a lot to like and work with. I’m pretty bullish on him.

 

I don't really disagree with this general idea of him being a top 10 QB in the future.  The issue is I think once you are paying a guy that is a top 10 QB top QB money, it gets really hard to build a championship contender around them.  Think Kirk Cousins.

 

So if you have a guy that's going to be top 10 and not top 3 or 4, then your only real chance at a championship is really before that 2nd contract kicks in.  I'm not saying it is impossible after that I guess, but I think the chances are pretty low.

 

IMO how things normally work in the NFL the difference between what the 8th QB makes and the 1st QB makes isn't equivalent to the difference between them on the field.

Edited November 3, 2023 by PeterMP

[zCommander]

10 minutes ago, tmandoug1 said:

The only reason the Steelers ar 4 and 3 is their defense.....period.

 

True. But forget about their D and our D for a moment. Steelers OL is ranked 27th which is only two better than ours and Pickett was the #1 QB selected and Howell in the 5th round in the same draft. That is the difference that really matters. I thought Pickett would have a better year this year but looks like it is Howell who is doing better than him instead.

[Thinking Skins]

One thing I like about EBs offense is the change in third down back. Yeah we're still seeing Gibson come in and do that role but because the offense is so pass heavy, both backs are pass catchers. So we're getting to see BRob use his ability to bowl over people in the open field and it'sa thing of beauty. 

 

I think as the offense develops we may see more running and more of what Philly did with their two backs Deuce and Westbrook but we're still early. 

 

I just didn't like BRob having a defined role of runner and Gibson of catcher where they could both do both. 

[Warhead36]

50 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

I don't really disagree with this general idea of him being a top 10 QB in the future.  The issue is I think once you are paying a guy that is a top 10 QB top QB money, it gets really hard to build a championship contender around them.  Think Kirk Cousins.

 

So if you have a guy that's going to be top 10 and not top 3 or 4, then your only real chance at a championship is really before that 2nd contract kicks in.  I'm not saying it is impossible after that I guess, but I think the chances are pretty low.

 

IMO how things normally work in the NFL the difference between what the 8th QB makes and the 1st QB makes isn't equivalent to the difference between them on the field.

Yeah I can see this line of thinking. Howell on a 5th round rookie contract is exceptional value. But in two years when he's a FA and you have to pay him, that value plummets. Now if by then he's a legitimate top 5 QB that is contending for Pro Bowls and All Pros every year you pay him, but if he's a Dak Prescott or Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins type it becomes a much bigger issue. At that point you kinda have to pay him but you end up in no man's land.

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, PeterMP said:

 

I don't really disagree with this general idea of him being a top 10 QB in the future.  The issue is I think once you are paying a guy that is a top 10 QB top QB money, it gets really hard to build a championship contender around them.  Think Kirk Cousins.

 

So if you have a guy that's going to be top 10 and not top 3 or 4, then your only real chance at a championship is really before that 2nd contract kicks in.  I'm not saying it is impossible after that I guess, but I think the chances are pretty low.

 

IMO how things normally work in the NFL the difference between what the 8th QB makes and the 1st QB makes isn't equivalent to the difference between them on the field.

So do you think it was a mistake for LAC to extend Herbert or Baltimore to keep Jackson?

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

So do you think it was a mistake for LAC to extend Herbert or Baltimore to keep Jackson?

Both guys are tier 1.

 

I think the debate is for guys in that Cousins/Dak/Goff/Carr tier. 

[Ball Security]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Both guys are tier 1.

 

I think the debate is for guys in that Cousins/Dak/Goff/Carr tier. 

Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Herbert. All past their rookie contracts. A couple of guys are outside the top 3-4 as referenced in the post I quoted.

[Warhead36]

9 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Herbert. All past their rookie contracts. A couple of guys are outside the top 3-4 as referenced in the post I quoted.

Yeah there are more than 3-4 that are worthy of the big money. And you can add Trevor Lawrence to the list after this year as well. Also Tua, who I'm sure Miami will give an extension to this offseason.

[Ball Security]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah there are more than 3-4 that are worthy of the big money. And you can add Trevor Lawrence to the list after this year as well. Also Tua, who I'm sure Miami will give an extension to this offseason.

Exactly. That’s eight guys right there. All of them deserving of big money. As for Howell, he’s played 9 games. He still has 26 games to go before you have to make that evaluation. What you want is some stability up front so you can give him a fair shake. I’ve been impressed so far. He’s a tough SOB. 
 

This Sunday will be a great test for him.

 

I’ll take our situation over about 18 to 20 other teams.

 

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

If he hadn’t laid that egg in the Buffalo game, his stats (except for the sacks) in the other seven are pretty damn good for a second year player in his first full season as a starter.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[Skinsinparadise]

the 2021 offensive line rankings.  I get the O line wasn't as dominating as now, but looks like still pretty good.  lol, I know what someone might think doesn't PFF like our O line.  Not really before last week it was ranked 21st.  But they seem to have an odd love affair with Wylie.

 

Must be amazing having three studs on the unit on a "down" year.  We once had Scherff, Moses, Trent on the same unit.  Fun times.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2021-offensive-line-rankings

 

4. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (UP 5)

LT Jordan Mailata | 86.9
LG Landon Dickerson | 67.3
C Jason Kelce | 84.8
RG Jack Driscoll | 70.4
RT Lane Johnson | 82.4

The Eagles ended up using 15 different offensive linemen this season, so it’s not a surprise that it took them some time to process all the losses and get into their groove. But once this group was settled, it dominated and propelled the team back into playoff contention as the foundation of a potent ground game.

Jordan Mailata became one of the game’s best linemen this season, enough to make PFF’s All-Pro second team. Mailata allowed 20 pressures in 14 starts. Lane Johnson at right tackle did not surrender a sack in 13 games, and 34-year-old Jason Kelce at center just somehow continues to run block like no other.

Edited November 3, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

the 2021 offensive line rankings.  I get the O line wasn't as dominating as now, but looks like still pretty good.  lol, I know what someone might think doesn't PFF like our O line.  Not really before last week it was ranked 21st.  But they seem to have an odd love affair with Wylie.

 

Must be amazing having three studs on the unit on a "down" year.  We once had Scherff, Moses, Trent on the same unit.  Fun times.

PFF has it right, Wylie is our sdud

[PeterMP]

9 hours ago, Ball Security said:

So do you think it was a mistake for LAC to extend Herbert or Baltimore to keep Jackson?

 

Jackson was an MVP.  His issue seems to be injuries, which isn't completely surprising given his style of play.  It seems he's slipped from then, but it was hard to criticize the move at the time.

 

I also can't say it is a mistake to keep a guy in that 5-10 range.  That sort of guy pretty much guarantees you are going to have a good chance at winning a lot of games and making the playoffs, even if it means you end up with a low chance at a Super Bowl.  If you don't have a guy in the top 10, it gets hard to win a lot of games and make the playoffs.  Winning is fun.

 

But I also acknowledge that route has limitations.

 

Somebody else said something about wanting Howell to be Mahomes right now.  That's not what I'm doing.  I'm asking can he be Mahomes (or even Hurts).  And the answer is no, I don't think so.  Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think his ceiling is that notch below those guys.  And I think that's really a valid question to ask.

 

Can Howell be a top level QB (and I mean really top 4 is the key IMO)?  And can you get somebody that will become one for reasonable value?  are going to be two important questions for this team this off season.

 

If a new FO comes in and thinks they can get a Mahomes, even if it means trading Howell, I'm not going to default complain.  I don't watch much college football and so don't really know the QBs coming out, but if you think one of them is going to be great, and you can get one of them for reasonable value, then even with Howell on the team, I think you have to do that.  And if trading Howell becomes part of the trade to get such a guy, I'm not going to say it was mistake because I think Howell will be great.

 

I also probably am not going to complain if they keep Howell and draft another QB in the 4th round or so.  If they think there's somebody later in that draft that has some ability, and they want to take a chance on that person, to me Howell isn't good enough that you don't entertain that.

 

The way some other people here seem to be talking about Howell they seem to think he has a trajectory to be a top 3 QB.  Citing his first 1/2 Eagles statistics as a measure of how good he can be is saying he's a future multiple MVP first ballot HOF player and that any move to get another QB is a mistake.

 

That's not me.

 

(I will point out a few other things:

 

1.  I'm assuming if Howell ends up in that 5-10 QB range he'll sign what has been a normal contract for those players.  If you can get him cheaper than that some how, then keeping him makes more sense.

 

2.  Just because you have a QB in that 5-10 range, I'd keep looking for another QB.  Realistically, that's how the Eagles ended up with Hurts.  They drafted Hurts before the wheels fell off on Wentz.  At the time, Wentz was generally considered to be a top tier QB.  Same thing with Mahomes.  Alex Smith wasn't considered as good, but I suspect most people would have put him in the top 10 at the time.  And the Packers Rodgers.  So similar to the point above, if I have a QB in that 5-10 range, I'm not locking myself out of drafting another QB.)

Edited November 3, 2023 by PeterMP

[samy316]

11 hours ago, Ball Security said:

So do you think it was a mistake for LAC to extend Herbert or Baltimore to keep Jackson?

 

No, not at all.  Herbert & Jackson are Top 5 QB's, when looking at the list overall.  The top QB's in the NFL right now are Mahommes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Jackson and Lawrence.  Those are the QB's that can win you games and put the team on their backs.  After those 6, I would have Hurts, Goff & Cousins right below them.  Those 3 are very good, but need help around them to win a SB.  They can't carry teams on their back, but they do everything else well.  The guys after them on that list are either average, or below average as you get further down the list.  If you want to be a serious SB contender, you would like to have a Top 6 QB.  You can still win a SB if you have a guy like Cousins, Goff or Hurts, but you need to have a damn good roster to be in the conversation.  The Top 6 names on that list will always be in the conversation to win a SB every year.  One name I left off that could be in that Top 5 list is Aaron Rodgers.  He got hurt a few plays into this season, but I think that he could've been in that Top 5 conversation if he didn't get hurt.  He did win 2 out of the last 3 MVP awards.  We'll see how he looks after the Achilles injury.

 

If Sam can get himself into that Top 10 conversation, then our future is looking bright.  Just fill out the holes in the rest of the roster (OL, LB and CB) and we'll definitely have a brighter future once we can settle in a new HC and GM.

Edited November 3, 2023 by samy316

[Thinking Skins]

We've been talking about "who is to blame" for the sacks. I thought about looking at in a different light. When is Howell being sacked, not from a down and distance or a time perspective but from a point perspective. That's how they determine blitzes right. So I decided to look at it that way. So analyzing all thoze sacks above, we see that: 

 - Opponents were sacked 4 more times when we were up 2 scores (1 vs 5)
 - Opponents were sacked 1 less time when we were up 1 score (8 vs 7)
 - Opponents were sacked 2 less times when the score was even (6 vs 4)
 - Opponents were sacked 6 less times when we were down 1 score (10 vs 4)
 - Opponents were sacked 5 less times when we were down 2 scores (9 v 4)
 - Opponents were sacked 2 less times when we were down 3 scores (3 vs 1)
 - Opponents were sacked 4 less times when we were down 5 scores (4 vs 0)
 
So that gives a different angle on the sacks. 

[KDawg]

Only in Commie Land do we think a top 10 potential QB isn’t good enough.