The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think it’s absolutely true that the fanbase is focusing on the things he does poorly more so than the positives he’s brought us.

The thing is that, we've got to focus on "something". Other things are too much of a given. We know that he's already beat the passing records. We know he's better than everybody but Purdy? Do you want to do the Purdy vs Howell debate right now? I don't think we're ready for that yet because that's another negatives argument. Malik/Ridder/Zappe/Corral are all way behind Howell right now so its not even a debate though. So its not even fun. 

 

Maybe we could ask something like what style of offense is best for him? Right now he's in a KC Andy Reid WCO style. How would he look in a SF Kyle style offense? Or in ATL style offense? Or even Gruden style offense? I'm wondering about the problems all these transitions will have on him so hopefully there will be some other offense that is somewhat similar to Reid's offense. 

 

[Going Commando]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So why is Howell some dead duck exception to all of this.  He arguably has shown more than all of those QBs but he's the dude who will be thrown out right away.  Don't get me wrong anything is possible but those acting like he's the long shot, it made sense for Ramsey, Campbell etc to survive, but not Howell, I don't get it.  

 

It didn't make sense to saddle the next regime with RG3, Haskins, Campbell, or Ramsey.  We know from hindsight that they only got a half-hearted shot with the next regime, and those regimes failed largely because they couldn't get their QB room settled.  In Ron's case, having one foot in the door on Haskins in 2020 caused him to scuffle on QB at the most critical stage of the establishment of his regime.  If he had drafted Tua or Herbert in his first offseason, he wouldn't be getting fired at the end of this year.

 

I have zero interest in continuing the pattern and seeing the next regime get saddled with Howell, only for them to cut bait after a year and then be scuffling at QB for years until it's time for them to get fired too.  I want a clear cut direction at QB and the firm establishment of the QB-HC marriage in year one.  If Howell's the guy they choose, so be it.  Otherwise, I want them to draft/trade for their QB this offseason and trade Howell when they find a buyer.

[Going Commando]

28 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah its a little peculiar. Maybe because he was a 5th round pick, I don't know. But Howell has shown way more positive than negative.

 

It's because both his and Ron's futures are in doubt.  We have to constantly calculate his upside because we have to make a big long term decision about him at the end of the year.

 

If this was year one or two of Rivera's regime and he had two more seasons after this one before facing the hot seat, we wouldn't be worried about Howell's upside, or his ability to survive major regime/scheme change.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

It didn't make sense to saddle the next regime with RG3, Haskins, Campbell, or Ramsey.  We know from hindsight that they only got a half-hearted shot with the next regime, and those regimes failed largely because they couldn't get their QB room settled.  In Ron's case, having one foot in the door on Haskins in 2020 caused him to scuffle on QB at the most critical stage of the establishment of his regime.  If he had drafted Tua or Herbert in his first offseason, he wouldn't be getting fired at the end of this year.

 

I have zero interest in continuing the pattern and seeing the next regime get saddled with Howell, only for them to cut bait after a year and then be scuffling at QB for years until it's time for them to get fired too.  I want a clear cut direction at QB and the firm establishment of the QB-HC marriage in year one.  If Howell's the guy they choose, so be it.  Otherwise, I want them to draft/trade for their QB this offseason and trade Howell when they find a buyer.

 

I get the thought process.  But I am not on the same page that franchise QBs are made to the same extent that you do.  I agree its to an extent though.  Maybe 25% of it.  But much of the reason albiet clearly not all of it is as to the QB success is on the actual QB.

 

I loved RG3 but post injury among other things he wasn't the same.  He wasn't the same in Cleveland either.  He wasn't the same in Baltimore.  Haskins was the #3 QB in Pittsburgh, he didn't leave here and succeed.  Campbell was sort of the same dude he was here at Oakland.  Ramsey also didn't succeed elsewhere.  

 

Howell IMO has showed more flashes than all of those guys sans the 2012 version of RG3.   His makeup is different than lets say RG3.  His accuracy is different than lets say Haskins.   His mobility is different than Campbell, etc.  You need good coaching and the right environment to groom the QB, I agree -- but these guys aren't cut from the same cloth.  The QB IMO has much to do with their own success.

 

The idea that teams just dump their young Qbs when there is regime turnover is more theory than reality.  Often the QB is giving another chance.  It's not just a Washington thing.  It would be one thing if you got the first pick or 2nd in the draft.  But if you are picking outside the top 10 why would a regime just prefer to start over?  It's much easier to develop a Qb with talent and build around them versus start from scratch or trade the farm for a QB and lose picks to build the roster.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

It depends on the guy.

 

Take Jared Goff for example. He stunk his rookie year under Jeff Fisher. Sean McVay takes over, and Goff blossoms into a damn good QB. Ditto Trevor Lawrence with Jacksonville.

Now both those guys had more pedigree than Howell does being high first round picks and all, and they only had played one year, not two.

 

Assuming we bring in a new coach/FO, they'll be dealing with a guy in Howell who has already played two years(so half his rookie contract, meaning half the value of having a talented young QB on a rookie deal is already expired)and will be going on his 3rd new offensive system in 3 years. It might be a damaged goods scenario even if Howell looks half decent.

[kingdaddy]

Howell is gonna look like the next Tom Brady to Belichek when he gets here this winter after having to deal with Mac Jones. He'll want to keep Sam.

[Going Commando]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

If you look at Howell's numbers when clean, they are bordlerline awesome.  For those saying what's the difference if we gave him a great O line, he'd still take sacks.  That feels silly to me.

 

If you gave Howell a clean pocket like for example Philly often gives Hurts, his numbers would clearly be better.

 

The pockets he's getting are not worse than average pocket league wide.  They're not substantially muddier than Jalen Hurts's.  Sam is 20th in the league in times hurried and Hurts is second, with over twice as many as Sam.  In average pocket time, Sam is right in the middle of the league at 2.5 seconds and Hurts is 2.6.  Pressure is the standard for NFL QBs, it's the main reason why the position is so hard to play.

 

The problem is that those hurries turn into hits and sacks for Sam at a super high rate.  Guys like Mahomes and Hurts have been seeing a ton of pressure too, but they make their throws faster.  They are more decisive, they see the field way better, and they are much better at moving in and out of the pocket.  That's really what separates the elite QBs of the league and allows them to be consistent, and that is the part of the consideration of Sam's upside that is a big problem.  Right now, he's not nearly good enough for me to feel like the next regime should stake their future on him, and in particular, pass over Caleb Williams or Drake Maye for him.  Can he significantly improve his field vision/anticipation and decisiveness?  I don't even know if he could if he had multiple years to do it, much less two and a half months.  It's not unheard of for the lightbulb to come on for guys as they enter their mid 20s and have the field just open up for them, but it's rare.  And it's unlikely to happen in the time frame we would need it to for Sam.

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

The problem is that those hurries turn into hits and sacks for Sam at a super high rate.  Guys like Mahomes and Hurts have been seeing a ton of pressure too, but they make their throws faster.  They are more decisive, they see the field way better, and they are much better at moving in and out of the pocket.  That's really what separates the elite QBs of the league and allows them to be consistent, and that is the part of the consideration of Sam's upside that is a big problem.  Right now, he's not nearly good enough for me to feel like the next regime should stake their future on him, and in particular, pass over Caleb Williams or Drake Maye for him.  Can he significantly improve his field vision/anticipation and decisiveness?  I don't even know if he could if he had multiple years to do it, much less two and a half months.  It's not unheard of for the lightbulb to come on for guys as they enter their mid 20s and have the field just open up for them, but it's rare.  And it's unlikely to happen in the time frame we would need it to for Sam.

 

You were comparing him at the start of the season to a top 5 type of QB play referencing you saw him as being in the same conversation as Hurts.  Granted that was you projecting and didn't know.  So you are off of that now I gather after seeing him play?  Seems like a big swing.

 

@MartinC joked that I am more likely to be the QB next year than Kirk Cousins.  Doubling down on that thought, I think I or @Koolblue13 have a better shot playing the QB next year than us shopping in the Drake-Caleb aisle.  Unless you are expecting the season to fall apart.  You before the season mentioned 11 wins is the floor.  Has it turned that far the other way? 

 

Personally, it feels so far exactly like the ride I expected.  A typical 8-9 Ron season.  Bad games.  Cool wins, too.  It evens out to something average.   Mediocre.  Inconsistent.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

I'm going to backtrack and say that I probably don't want a new hire outside of EB right now for Howell right now. I want a new GM or at least somebody to come in and revamp the OL. That's what I want. I think BRob can be a 1000 yard back with this team and that can help Howell a lot but like I said earlier, we need to be able to get 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2 when it comes up. For the longest we haven't been able to. This isn't a Ron problem its a Washington problem. 

 

Its not that I want to necessarily draft linemen but I want to prioritize the OL right now and protect Sam and get guys that can both pass and run block. 

[zCommander]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Other then the sacks I'd say Howell's biggest issue is inaccuracy on the deep stuff. His intermediate passes are on point but he's missed some open deep shots.

 

The deep stuff can also be due to not being on the same page. The route the WR ran to where Sam thought he would run to, for example. That just comes with building some more chemistry with your WRs. I agree the one he missed to Brown made me scratch my head since he had played with him in college, could be pressure related.

 

Is there a stat that shows the number of times Sam had good pass protecting but still missed a wide open WR?

[illone]

I love what I see so far from Howell.

 

Good attitude.

Seems like a good locker room guy, the team likes him.

Says the right things in the media.

Has natural leadership qualities.

Can make all the throws, there doesnt seem to be too many areas he needs to improve on when it comes to throwing the rock.

By all accounts is coachable and wants to improve.

Doesnt appear to have an ego (but exudes confidence on the field)

 

Outside of holding the ball too long, and some other pocket presence issues, I see a guy with a higher ceiling than anything we have seen in Washington in a long time.

 

The other element that is massively in the teams favor is the contract situation.  The team wont need to pay him for at least another year.  Im no expert on NFL contracts, but it's my understanding that there is no 5th year option after the first round, right?  So technically Howell is under contract through the 2025 season. 

 

I think the team can extend him any time they want, but can wait until the off-season prior to the final year to prevent him from hitting free agency (Someone correct me if I am wrong on that)

 

It definitely seems like the contact situation is such a huge advantage for Washington over the next few seasons.  

 

What am I missing here?

 

*Sorry if this has been mentioned already, it's a huge thread with many ebbs and flows lol.

[Tyler Spiers]

1 hour ago, illone said:

I love what I see so far from Howell.

 

Good attitude.

Seems like a good locker room guy, the team likes him.

Says the right things in the media.

Has natural leadership qualities.

Can make all the throws, there doesnt seem to be too many areas he needs to improve on when it comes to throwing the rock.

By all accounts is coachable and wants to improve.

Doesnt appear to have an ego (but exudes confidence on the field)

 

Outside of holding the ball too long, and some other pocket presence issues, I see a guy with a higher ceiling than anything we have seen in Washington in a long time.

 

The other element that is massively in the teams favor is the contract situation.  The team wont need to pay him for at least another year.  Im no expert on NFL contracts, but it's my understanding that there is no 5th year option after the first round, right?  So technically Howell is under contract through the 2025 season. 

 

I think the team can extend him any time they want, but can wait until the off-season prior to the final year to prevent him from hitting free agency (Someone correct me if I am wrong on that)

 

It definitely seems like the contact situation is such a huge advantage for Washington over the next few seasons.  

 

What am I missing here?

 

*Sorry if this has been mentioned already, it's a huge thread with many ebbs and flows lol.

 

You're not missing anything. The kid's a stud. QB search is over, this IS THE GUY.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

JT O’Sullivan does QB breakdowns every week on his channel. Really good analysis from an ex NFL QB

[Voice_of_Reason]

90% Sam is back on the team next year either as a starter or the backup if they choose to draft another guy.  
 

10% he’s traded. 
 

Whether he enters the season next year as the starter or whether a new regime wants to draft their own guy to develop, that depends on how Sam finishes and who the new guy is and what they want.

 

But given he’s going to be on the third year of a 5th round contract, he’s dirt cheep.  There is 0 reason to release him or move on from him.

 

If they draft a guy, Sam might start the season as the starter as the other guy develops.  He might be an exceptional backup.  
 

But unless he’s traded, he’s going to be here.  And him being here won’t prevent the new GM from doing anything. There is no money tied up in him and he’s a 5th round pick, so it’s not like they have to protect their investment.  

 

I don’t understand the rush to judgement and grand proclamations. 
 

Also, I think there is a narrative which is being spoken into existence a bit that there is a lot of negativity around Sam.  I don’t feel that.  I think most folks are pretty giddy about what he is at the moment.  There are some negative nellies. But I feel they are the minority.  

 

 

[wit33]

 

7 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

90% Sam is back on the team next year either as a starter or the backup if they choose to draft another guy.  
 

10% he’s traded. 
 

Whether he enters the season next year as the starter or whether a new regime wants to draft their own guy to develop, that depends on how Sam finishes and who the new guy is and what they want.

 

But given he’s going to be on the third year of a 5th round contract, he’s dirt cheep.  There is 0 reason to release him or move on from him.

 

If they draft a guy, Sam might start the season as the starter as the other guy develops.  He might be an exceptional backup.  
 

But unless he’s traded, he’s going to be here.  And him being here won’t prevent the new GM from doing anything. There is no money tied up in him and he’s a 5th round pick, so it’s not like they have to protect their investment.  

 

I don’t understand the rush to judgement and grand proclamations. 
 

Also, I think there is a narrative which is being spoken into existence a bit that there is a lot of negativity around Sam.  I don’t feel that.  I think most folks are pretty giddy about what he is at the moment.  There are some negative nellies. But I feel they are the minority.  

I agree. I might have been overly assertive in my statement about him now being the starter, and it may have implied that I didn’t think he’d be on the team. I share your belief that it’s highly probable he’ll be on the roster and even have a chance to start. 

[rumplestilskin]

Jeezus we are shell shocked when it comes to trusting our eyes. There has been too many false hopes come through the turnstile that have been dashed over the years. Sam has only played 7 games. Even the great ones had learning curves on year one. All of them. We just have to trust what we see. He is our QB, and won't be seeing the bench unless he is hurt.

[Stihl89]

19 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

It didn't make sense to saddle the next regime with RG3, Haskins, Campbell, or Ramsey.  We know from hindsight that they only got a half-hearted shot with the next regime, and those regimes failed largely because they couldn't get their QB room settled.  In Ron's case, having one foot in the door on Haskins in 2020 caused him to scuffle on QB at the most critical stage of the establishment of his regime.  If he had drafted Tua or Herbert in his first offseason, he wouldn't be getting fired at the end of this year.

 

I have zero interest in continuing the pattern and seeing the next regime get saddled with Howell, only for them to cut bait after a year and then be scuffling at QB for years until it's time for them to get fired too.  I want a clear cut direction at QB and the firm establishment of the QB-HC marriage in year one.  If Howell's the guy they choose, so be it.  Otherwise, I want them to draft/trade for their QB this offseason and trade Howell when they find a buyer.

This is my biggest thing as well. IMO the exact scenario is the biggest reason for our failures. The continuance of putting the onus of fixing the last staffs QB with the current staff. Just to only abandon their plan 3/4 of the way through their tenure to get their guy. Only to be fired a year or two later. Having to reset the cycle yet again. 
 

I desperately don’t want this to happen again for the new staff. If some one offers up a 3rd for Sam you take it. 

[Stihl89]

19 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

I'm going to backtrack and say that I probably don't want a new hire outside of EB right now for Howell right now. I want a new GM or at least somebody to come in and revamp the OL. That's what I want. I think BRob can be a 1000 yard back with this team and that can help Howell a lot but like I said earlier, we need to be able to get 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2 when it comes up. For the longest we haven't been able to. This isn't a Ron problem its a Washington problem. 

 

Its not that I want to necessarily draft linemen but I want to prioritize the OL right now and protect Sam and get guys that can both pass and run block. 

I just have a hard time envisioning a new GM signing up for the previous staffs 5th round Hail Mary and tossed aside OC being their HC decision. 
 

Half of Sams biggest asset, his cheapness, is gone. EB didn’t have an another Job offer this offseason. Would have crawled back to KC in some manner and it was clear that Andy wanted Nagy to be the OC due to the better relationship with Pat. 
 

The two most important selections a new GM makes and he goes with the bad last staffs options are slim to none IMO

[Thinking Skins]

10 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

I just have a hard time envisioning a new GM signing up for the previous staffs 5th round Hail Mary and tossed aside OC being their HC decision. 
 

Half of Sams biggest asset, his cheapness, is gone. EB didn’t have an another Job offer this offseason. Would have crawled back to KC in some manner and it was clear that Andy wanted Nagy to be the OC due to the better relationship with Pat. 
 

The two most important selections a new GM makes and he goes with the bad last staffs options are slim to none IMO

I just can't believe that because we've been in QB purgatory for so long. You think they're going to go back there when they may have the guy right now? How do you think San Diego feel about letting Brees go even when they got a great QB after him, he didn't win one. 

 

I feel like the only thing people can talk about is sacks so it's getting overhyped. But If we put sacks interceptions and incompletions in one category (obviously with incomplete being best) then we see that a lot of young QBs come in with need to improve because they either throw a  of interceptions or they throw out away, but they could also rush their passes and throw it inaccurate. We've seen that a lot over the years with a number of QBs. 

 

Point being I thing Harris is impressed enough with Howell to keep him and say this is our guy going forward. Should this be a Harris move? Well. It sets the direction of the franchise and we have a player doing well right now. It's kinda like Brad Johnson or Trent Greene. Both could have altered the Dan Snyder era positively but neither stated, one by choice, one by force. 

[Going Commando]

20 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You were comparing him at the start of the season to a top 5 type of QB play referencing you saw him as being in the same conversation as Hurts.  Granted that was you projecting and didn't know.  So you are off of that now I gather after seeing him play?  Seems like a big swing.

 

@MartinC joked that I am more likely to be the QB next year than Kirk Cousins.  Doubling down on that thought, I think I or @Koolblue13 have a better shot playing the QB next year than us shopping in the Drake-Caleb aisle.  Unless you are expecting the season to fall apart.  You before the season mentioned 11 wins is the floor.  Has it turned that far the other way? 

 

Personally, it feels so far exactly like the ride I expected.  A typical 8-9 Ron season.  Bad games.  Cool wins, too.  It evens out to something average.   Mediocre.  Inconsistent.

 

I think we're going to get to eight wins or so.  Preseason, I didn't expect the coaching to be so bad TBF, including on offense.  But especially not from Rivera and Del Rio.  We're 3-3 but could easily be 1-5 if not for some lucky breaks against Atlanta and Denver.  We're going to spend the whole season battling just to stay .500.  If we stay relatively healthy, we can do it, but a few key injuries could kill us and leave us with five or six wins.

 

I'm not talking about finishing top 2 for Williams/Maye. I'm talking about trading up for one of them.  Williams is probably going #1, but Maye's stock is softer and I think he'll be up for sale.  We get a new GM and HC in here and they make a big trade to get Maye and I'll be happy.  It's the strongest move we could make to secure our future IMO, because it'd form a rock solid QB-HC marriage and give ourselves the clearest organizational direction possible.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, Stihl89 said:

The two most important selections a new GM makes and he goes with the bad last staffs options are slim to none IMO

I keep seeing this narrative that a new GM/coach is going to immediately dump Sam and get their own QB.  Which in theory makes sense, but when you are taking over for a regime that hasn’t stockpiled picks in the cupboard and you are selecting 16th in the upcoming draft, where exactly are they going to get this potentially elite QB everyone covets?

 

And on the subject, the only QB worth the risk of giving up on Sam and giving up a ton of assets is Williams.  I have zero desire to give up a bunch for Maye.

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

Point being I thing Harris is impressed enough with Howell to keep him and say this is our guy going forward. Should this be a Harris move? Well. It sets the direction of the franchise and we have a player doing well right now.

That’s what Dan did with Haskins.  I don’t see Harris dictating that move at all.

 

I expect Harris to gauge what to do at the position by speaking with experts and getting the opinions of those he interviews.

Edited October 21, 2023 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[Thinking Skins]

15 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

That’s what Dan did with Haskins.  I don’t see Harris dictating that move at all.

 

I expect Harris to gauge what to do at the position by speaking with experts and getting the opinions of those he interviews.

Potato/potatoe 

 

Maybe he hires an analytics guy to say what you said in your first paragraph. It's what I've been saying all along. We can bring competition in for him, but he'd win unless it's biased or he'd hurt. 

 

So that's the whole question. What's the question going into the coaching search. How do they feel about Howell? Who can they bring in that he can't beat out? Brissett? Minshew? A late rookie? Not many options

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, Thinking Skins said:

Potato/potatoe 

 

Maybe he hires an analytics guy to say what you said in your first paragraph. It's what I've been saying all along. We can bring competition in for him, but he'd win unless it's biased or he'd hurt. 

 

So that's the whole question. What's the question going into the coaching search. How do they feel about Howell? Who can they bring in that he can't beat out? Brissett? Minshew? A late rookie? Not many options

 

 

All I’m saying is that I hope Harris doesn’t force Howell on whoever he hires and don’t expect him to.  I hope Howell dictates the decision himself with his play.

 

 

 

 

[kingdaddy]

Sam is getting pretty good reviews from national media folks and from ex-coaches, GM's. His game saving drive in Philly showed me all I needed to see as being our QB moving forward. He's a very tough kid and is only going to get better as he gains experience. Get him some offensive line help and better defensive play and we can go far with Sam. He's already a top 15 QB in many categories thus far this season. 

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Stihl89 said:

This is my biggest thing as well. IMO the exact scenario is the biggest reason for our failures. The continuance of putting the onus of fixing the last staffs QB with the current staff. Just to only abandon their plan 3/4 of the way through their tenure to get their guy. Only to be fired a year or two later. Having to reset the cycle yet again. 
 

I desperately don’t want this to happen again for the new staff. If some one offers up a 3rd for Sam you take it. 

 

I agree, unless the next coaching staff genuinely wants to commit to Howell and is OK being married to him.  If that's the case, then I am OK with that plan too, as long as they see it through.  None of this bringing in their projects from their old jobs and then benching the kid after four games ****.