The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Cooleyfan1993]

Yeah, fans getting excited about a 6-2 start to the season in 08, our best start to a season at that time since, well, a while I’m sure…….yeah, how dumb of us!! 

 

 

[FootballZombie]

The timetable around Carr is also very interesting.

 

You can get your hands on him waaaaay b4 the offseason, so you can spend it planning around your QB instead of planning how to get a QB.

 

It even makes you look at Wentz differently. If you can lock Carr in early, you can either offer Wentz an even smaller contract than the planned restructure beforehand to stay, (maybe he is cool w/ being a back-up?) or cut him outright since its not nearly as imperative to keep him as you have your QB1.

 

 

Carr's situation would honestly make me wait to restructure Wentz until after his destination is resolved.

If he is willing to restructure w/ a new team, I could even see Wentz as a trade piece for Carr as long as he plays alright in the next few games. A 10 Mil Wentz is probably trade-able.

 

 

Even more incentive to see some decent play outta Wentz. Even if he is not the guy, we might be able to get something for him, and QB deals often require a QB to make it happen.

[tshile]

Does Carr even clear waivers?

23 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Yeah, fans getting excited about a 6-2 start to the season in 08, our best start to a season at that time since, well, a while I’m sure…….yeah, how dumb of us!! 

 

 

so how’d that story work out?

Edited December 29, 2022 by tshile

[Cooleyfan1993]

11 minutes ago, tshile said:

so how’d that story work out?

In hindsight, it was silly to get excited, sure. But calling fans “stupid” for being excited about things that they don’t know at the time will end badly, is rude. Sorry 

[Jumbo]

Carr won't play again for the Raiders.

 

The Raiders won't bring Carr back.

 

I think debating Carr's level of play as either "good" or "very good" is full of solid points for either side, inc factors like how often did the Raiders various, serious, shortcomings restricted Carr's achievements, and how often did Carr's bad games or bad plays during big games hold the Raiders back.

 

I'm not excited about the idea of having Carr, but I'm jaded enough to not hate it if there's no other option to improve (this assuming Wentz doesn't undergo some major rebirth, of which I'm  quite skeptical).

 

I'd have preferred Jimmy G, fragility and all, or Carr, or Ryan, were the deals reasonable, to Wentz. But in hindsight I think they're all the same level of "wash" in our situation.

 

I'd have even been ok this season getting minshew, or a number of other backups who were made starters this year, over heinie as a starter on a one year test.

 

I don't think I'm too optimistic about getting really out of our weak qb sitch unless Howell turns out a find (of which I do have a little hope, but no assuredness). My other hope is simply some guy in the next draft becomes a better looking option than what I'm seeing or hearing about any of them at this time.

 

[MrJL]

48 minutes ago, tshile said:

Does Carr even clear waivers?

 

 

Carr doesn't need to be waived, he can just be released

 

7 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

You say that now.

 

After thanksgiving folks were talking about a Super Bowl run.  This team just plays for Heinicke and the NFC is so weak, it’s possible.  A month later after a harsh dose of reality, we are down and down bad.

All it will take is one win against the Browns and a sniff of hope and everything changes.  If this team can somehow beat Dallas to make the playoffs, we’ll have to stop folks from planning a parade.  

 

yeah well, I wasn't one of those people.  I'm not at all interested in Wentz, and anything short of the NFC championship game isn't worth 26 million next year

[illone]

25 minutes ago, London Kev said:

ESPN simulated the next two games using their Football Power Index (?) to see who would make the playoffs.

 

Week 17: Commanders 41, Browns 10

Week 18: cowboys 47, Commanders 7

 

According to them, we finish 8th in the NFC with a record of 8-8-1.

 

Full simulated scores at link.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35330806/predicting-nfl-playoff-picture-espn-football-power-index-projects-weeks-17-18-division-races-wild-card-hunts

 

 

Well you just knew this thing was fugazi when it assigned 41 points to this team' offense, which hasnt happen in what, 10 years?

 

*Actually I looked it up... It was against Dallas two years ago.  Totally forgot about that game.

 

 

[Cooleyfan1993]

6 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

Well you just knew this thing was fugazi when it assigned 41 points to this team' offense, which hasnt happen in what, 10 years?

 

*Actually I looked it up... It was against Dallas two years ago.  Totally forgot about that game.

 

 

And we scored 47 against the saints in 2015, which was definitely less than 10 years ago. Plus, the 42-24 SNF W in 2016, which also was not 10 years ago  

[London Kev]

I'm still in the 'wait and see what we have in Wentz' camp before I start to think too seriously about Carr. I seem to be one of the few who think that Wentz may still come through for us, I guess we'll find out over the coming weeks. We also still don't know what Howell is capable of in real games.

 

I guess I wouldn't mind it if we made a play for Carr if Wentz flames out, he's a good QB and could fit in well here, it all depends on the cost.

[illone]

4 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

And we scored 47 against the saints in 2015, which was definitely less than 10 years ago. Plus, the 42-24 SNF W in 2016, which also was not 10 years ago  

 

 

Being a fan of this team ages people aggressively... 😩

[88Comrade2000]

Even if Carr were to be our qb in 23; I doubt he performs well here.

 

Carr will take time adjusting to Turner’s offense. He will look like **** for half the year as we start out 0-8/1-7/2-6.  Then in typical Rivera fashion , we reverse our fortunes in the second half to finish 6-11/7-10/8-9.

 

New owner moves on from Ron in 24 and the new coach moves on from Carr.

 

QBs come here to end their careers, not revive them.

[Idaho fan]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

If he is willing to restructure w/ a new team, I could even see Wentz as a trade piece for Carr as long as he plays alright in the next few games. A 10 Mil Wentz is probably trade-able.

Like the thought but unless Wentz goes on a run not seen here in decades I can’t imagine any team trading for him.  I think those days might be over - along with his opportunities to be a starter.  
 

Wentz + for Carr would be a big downgrade for the Raiders.  Again, like the idea though.  
 

I think Carr makes this team 2-3 wins better next year.  I thought the same thing last year about Wentz.  Lol

 

 

[illone]

Hard pass on Carr for me. 
 

Arod or draft is where I sit. 
 

 

[method man]

If you are Carr and you have all the leverage with the NTC, why wouldn't you just refuse to waive the NTC to force the Raiders to cut you instead? That would give you greater flexibility on your destination and ultimately help you maximize the $ you get. Getting Carr while giving up nothing in a trade would be a no brainer even if that means giving up Payne who you would get trade comp for if you franchise him. I don't believe there are any roster bonuses left for Carson so you can hold on to him while you wait for the Carr situation to play out and then cut him after signing Carr at any point in the offseason. It would be doing him dirty but that's the business.

[method man]

24 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Even if Carr were to be our qb in 23; I doubt he performs well here.

 

Carr will take time adjusting to Turner’s offense. He will look like **** for half the year as we start out 0-8/1-7/2-6.  Then in typical Rivera fashion , we reverse our fortunes in the second half to finish 6-11/7-10/8-9.

 

New owner moves on from Ron in 24 and the new coach moves on from Carr.

 

QBs come here to end their careers, not revive them.

 

I wouldn't completely count on Ron bringing Turner back. After his evaluations this offseason, Ron could determine that Scott was a part of the problem and let him go. Ron is loyal but by firing Mills, he has shown he is willing to let his people go (he also did fire coaches in Carolina as well letting both Mike Shula and Ken Dorsey go one offseason)

 

If next season is a make or break year for Ron, he will want to put his best foot forward and there will be OC talent out there (one guy may be Downing from Tennessee - the guy who got the DUI after a night game driving home). Downing was Carr's QB coach and OC with the Raiders while Jack was the HC. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

So, there is one possibility which nobody seems to be considering, because it is the least likely possibility.  However, it is still a possibility.  

 

Wentz could pay really well and the Commanders could win the next 2 and a playoff game, especially if it is at Minnesota.  Which would bring up, in all likelihood, a game against Philly.  Which we know they can win, because they have.  There really isn't any reason the team couldn't win those next 3 games.

 

 

Personally, I'd like to see how this all plays out before having to theorize about what they are going to do in the off-season.  We so rarely get a season where the off-season hasn't already started at this point in the year, I'm going to enjoy the fact they are still playing.

 

I'm going to hope they actually get it together, and win their next 2 games.  And hopefully another one or two.  Is it likely?  No.  But it is possible.  

 

As far as next year is concerned, if Wentz isn't a disaster, I want him back.  Every QB takes a season or so to pick up a new offense.  In a vacuum, if Turner is back, I want Wentz back.  If Turner is gone, I don't really care as much.  It's my #1 issue about Turner: virtually the entire league runs an offense based on WCO principles and terminology.  A lot of that is because Walsh had 2 really good assistants (Shanahan and Holmgren), and Holmgren had Reid, and it feels like 90% of the offensive minds came off that tree somewhere.  All the HC's who were on Shanahan's staff are off the tree (including McVay and Kyle).  McVay likes to say he's off of Jay Gruden's branch.  Fine, doesn't matter.  Jay is off of Jon's branch, which is off of Reid, which is off of Holmgren.  So it's still the Walsh tree, just the other half of it.  

 

The Coryell tree, for some reason, just died.  Gibbs was off the Coryell tree, as was Zampese and Norv Turner, Mike Martz and Al Saunders.  Then it just basically fizzled, and the only one who really runs it anymore is Scott Turner.  Which means it's a change for literally everybody coming in here.  Which is why in a vacuum, I prefer Wentz, because at least he's been here for a year.  

 

[Chump Bailey]

15 minutes ago, method man said:

 

I wouldn't completely count on Ron bringing Turner back. After his evaluations this offseason, Ron could determine that Scott was a part of the problem and let him go. Ron is loyal but by firing Mills, he has shown he is willing to let his people go (he also did fire coaches in Carolina as well letting both Mike Shula and Ken Dorsey go one offseason)

 

If next season is a make or break year for Ron, he will want to put his best foot forward and there will be OC talent out there (one guy may be Downing from Tennessee - the guy who got the DUI after a night game driving home). Downing was Carr's QB coach and OC with the Raiders while Jack was the HC. 

 

My football acumen is not good enough to evaluate OC's for the most part, but I think kicking the tires on Frank Reich would be wise.

[tshile]

1 hour ago, MrJL said:

Carr doesn't need to be waived, he can just be released

Why?

 

i thought anyone released outside of free agency/contract expiring, had to clear waivers and if you claim them you claim the contract as well?

 

 

[method man]

5 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

My football acumen is not good enough to evaluate OC's for the most part, but I think kicking the tires on Frank Reich would be wise.

 

It would be smart for sure, especially if Wentz is still here. It is obvious now that letting Wentz go was Irsay and not Reich driven. It also seems that Ron has a lot of respect for Frank. The third piece of it is that the Colts owe Reich money until 2026 and any contract he signs offsets the money the Colts owe him. Thus, even if it may end up being just a year here, it could be worth it to him. The issue is that he hasn't worked with any of the position coaches before but he may appreciate working with a veteran staff with a couple guys from the Reid tree in Castillo and Zampese

13 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So, there is one possibility which nobody seems to be considering, because it is the least likely possibility.  However, it is still a possibility.  

 

Wentz could pay really well and the Commanders could win the next 2 and a playoff game, especially if it is at Minnesota.  Which would bring up, in all likelihood, a game against Philly.  Which we know they can win, because they have.  There really isn't any reason the team couldn't win those next 3 games.

 

 

Personally, I'd like to see how this all plays out before having to theorize about what they are going to do in the off-season.  We so rarely get a season where the off-season hasn't already started at this point in the year, I'm going to enjoy the fact they are still playing.

 

I'm going to hope they actually get it together, and win their next 2 games.  And hopefully another one or two.  Is it likely?  No.  But it is possible.  

 

As far as next year is concerned, if Wentz isn't a disaster, I want him back.  Every QB takes a season or so to pick up a new offense.  In a vacuum, if Turner is back, I want Wentz back.  If Turner is gone, I don't really care as much.  It's my #1 issue about Turner: virtually the entire league runs an offense based on WCO principles and terminology.  A lot of that is because Walsh had 2 really good assistants (Shanahan and Holmgren), and Holmgren had Reid, and it feels like 90% of the offensive minds came off that tree somewhere.  All the HC's who were on Shanahan's staff are off the tree (including McVay and Kyle).  McVay likes to say he's off of Jay Gruden's branch.  Fine, doesn't matter.  Jay is off of Jon's branch, which is off of Reid, which is off of Holmgren.  So it's still the Walsh tree, just the other half of it.  

 

The Coryell tree, for some reason, just died.  Gibbs was off the Coryell tree, as was Zampese and Norv Turner, Mike Martz and Al Saunders.  Then it just basically fizzled, and the only one who really runs it anymore is Scott Turner.  Which means it's a change for literally everybody coming in here.  Which is why in a vacuum, I prefer Wentz, because at least he's been here for a year.  

 

 

Norv was the torchbearer for this tree in the 2000s and he failed to groom future offensive head coaches. You could argue that Arthur Smith is off the Gibbs tree but I am not sure whether his playcalling style is a Coryell style

[FootballZombie]

26 minutes ago, method man said:

If you are Carr and you have all the leverage with the NTC, why wouldn't you just refuse to waive the NTC to force the Raiders to cut you instead? That would give you greater flexibility on your destination and ultimately help you maximize the $ you get. Getting Carr while giving up nothing in a trade would be a no brainer even if that means giving up Payne who you would get trade comp for if you franchise him. I don't believe there are any roster bonuses left for Carson so you can hold on to him while you wait for the Carr situation to play out and then cut him after signing Carr at any point in the offseason. It would be doing him dirty but that's the business.

 

I'm not too sure the situation changes too much from Carr's perspective whether he is cut or traded.

 

A.) He would only waive his NTC if he is being traded to a situation he deems "acceptable". Whether he is cut or traded, he still only ends up on a roster he wants to end up on.

 

B.) I gotta imagine wherever he goes, he is negotiating a new contract. In the angle of a trade, these monetary parameters are likely hashed out before a deal is done and he waives his NTC, so he is getting something he deems acceptable. If he is cut he is not signing with anyone until he sees numbers that he deems acceptable.

 

C.) Yes he weakens the new team as it takes assets to acquire him, but it also personally ingrains him harder with the team as they are paying more than money for his services. That also helps gap the monetary leverage FA would provide as his new squad is investing more in him, giving him more leverage.

 

 

I think getting cut would provide more options, but at the end of the day he is still going where he wants to go for a number he likes no matter how it goes down. If he gets that deal slid across the table in the form of a trade, there is not a huge reason to turn it down IMO.

[tshile]

2 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

In hindsight, it was silly to get excited, sure. But calling fans “stupid” for being excited about things that they don’t know at the time will end badly, is rude. Sorry 

To be clear I’m speaking strictly football intellect - not general. Although my thoughts on people are pretty cynical but that’s for a different place on the forum. 
 

and yeah getting excited about a 6-2 start by a guy with nothing to know about him as an opponent (film, playbook, etc) when the reason he got his job was because the owner floated fassal, there was a huge uproar, he hired and OC and got stuck with no one to hire so he promoted the never-before-oc to HC who then called us the “maroon and black” at his presser… 

 

im sorry but that had disaster written all over it. 
 

Just like the people who screamed nepotism about Kyle. 
 

in general I would posit that being overly critical of coordinators, when the person being critical has zero pro football experience and isn’t in the rooms and doesn’t know the assignments and doesn’t know what is being taught, is limited intellectually. 
 

and I’m not talking about the post game “we should have run the ball more”. 
 

im talking about the individuals who go 3-4 steps beyond that and push a running theme through a season or a coaching staff era. 
 

yeah - the people who **** on Kyle throughout that aren’t real smart football people, and I’m being polite. 

[method man]

1 minute ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I'm not too sure the situation changes too much from Carr's perspective whether he is cut or traded.

 

A.) He would only waive his NTC if he is being traded to a situation he deems "acceptable". Whether he is cut or traded, he still only ends up on a roster he wants to end up on.

 

B.) I gotta imagine wherever he goes, he is negotiating a new contract. In the angle of a trade, these monetary parameters are likely hashed out before a deal is done and he waives his NTC, so he is getting something he deems acceptable. If he is cut he is not signing with anyone until he sees numbers that he deems acceptable.

 

C.) Yes he weakens the new team as it takes assets to acquire him, but it also personally ingrains him harder with the team as they are paying more than money for his services. That also helps gap the monetary leverage FA would provide as his new squad is investing more in him, giving him more leverage.

 

 

I think getting cut would provide more options, but at the end of the day he is still going where he wants to go for a number he likes no matter how it goes down. If he gets that deal slid across the table in the form of a trade, there is not a huge reason to turn it down IMO.

 

Your argument makes sense but there may be teams want Carr but don't have the assets to win out in a trade for him. New Orleans is the perfect example as they don't have a first round pick next year and may not want to give up their second given their cap situation and all the holes they have. NO would be a potential fit for Carr given Dennis Allen was his HC with the Raiders. 

[tshile]

Give me carr, and a new owner, and I’m gonna become hugely positive on this team for the first time in a long time. 
 

 

he may need time to learn turners offense. And that’s ok. But he’s got every single thing most of us love about Taylor Heinicke - but he’s also a top 1/3 of the league quarterback and that is *exactly* what we need 

 

Him and Rivera will be leaders people give their all for every play. 

[88Comrade2000]

4 minutes ago, method man said:

 

Your argument makes sense but there may be teams want Carr but don't have the assets to win out in a trade for him. New Orleans is the perfect example as they don't have a first round pick next year and may not want to give up their second given their cap situation and all the holes they have. NO would be a potential fit for Carr given Dennis Allen was his HC with the Raiders. 

One of them rumors is that Sean Payton goes back to Saints and signs Brady.

[method man]

Just now, tshile said:

Give me carr, and a new owner, and I’m gonna become hugely positive on this team for the first time in a long time. 
 

 

he may need time to learn turners offense. And that’s ok. But he’s got every single thing most of us love about Taylor Heinicke - but he’s also a top 1/3 of the league quarterback and that is *exactly* what we need 

 

Him and Rivera will be leaders people give their all for every play. 

 

Give me Carr, a new owner and a new OC whose system doesn't take a year to learn