The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Califan007 The Constipated]

37 minutes ago, Burgold said:

I think Alex catches more of a break because his teams won. Even with the ‘skins, as awful as he was, he led us to our best record in years (6/3). On the other hand, Kirk’s teams always felt like they fell short. 
 

That may not be fair, but winning erases stink and changes perceptions. 

 

Well, winning is the goal...and the QB position requires a helluva lot more from the player than pretty throws in order to win the game.

 

Back when the Cousins thread was still open, I quoted some article that basically said Kirk trusts his process more than he trusts his play-makers (he actually said as much, although he didn't realize that was what he was saying lol). Not trusting his playmakers is an element that I think hinders Kirk too often. On the flip side you have someone like Heinicke who trusts his play-makers more than he trusts his arm--"just get it in Terry's vicinity and let him go get it." With someone like Romo, what hindered him (beyond getting the yips at the absolute worst times) was a complete lack of game situational awareness. He'd treat being down by 3 pts with three minutes to go as if he's down by 7 with 30 seconds to go. And what helps someone like Alex Smith is just a strong understanding of how the offense is supposed to work and making sure everyone else on the field does as well from play to play. That can calm teammates down and help them focus better--I think Mclaurin was the one who said that with Alex, you always feel as if you know exactly what's going to happen. I always assumed that meant not only what's going to happen on offense but also on defense, like Smith is savvy enough and experienced enough to spot things in real time that the offense can exploit, and tells his offensive teammates what to expect.

 

A long time ago some Dallas sportswriter said the trap that Dallas fans get caught up in is thinking Romo's gaudy stats are all that matters, and minimized the QB areas he's deficient in as unimportant to winning. We do that more than a bit here as well (as do all fan bases, I imagine).

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Califan007 The Constipated

[Thinking Skins]

54 minutes ago, Burgold said:

I think Alex catches more of a break because his teams won. Even with the ‘skins, as awful as he was, he led us to our best record in years (6/3). On the other hand, Kirk’s teams always felt like they fell short. 
 

That may not be fair, but winning erases stink and changes perceptions. 

I agree. Sand that 2018 collapse was not under Smith. Plus the injury. 

 

We saw Cousins teams get off to hot starts in 2015, 2016 and 2017 but every year they fell apart. This is why I compared him to Stafford because that was the normal thing with the Lions. They'd just be a fake 6-2 every year.

 

I see what Wentz did in Philly in 2017, 2019 and Indy in 2021. He was injured in 2018 but was still putting up numbers if not wins. Then I'm 2020 is when their line went down and they're playing ps guys who had never played football. I am thinking this is the best offseason move we've made since Gibbs 1. 

[Conn]

If we had a face of the franchise elite QB like that, I’d pay them those contracts in a second. They’re the most disproportionally important position in the sport by a long shot. At an older age or with off-field issues is when you start getting into trouble with those contracts, of course. Interested to see how it plays out for the teams that have taken those risks. I specifically hope Watson never plays another down and the Browns are stuck, but the old guys I’ve got nothing against. 

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yep and that's part of why if Wentz ends up good, the 28 million or so they are paying him for the next 3 years ends up a bargain.

 

It started with Dak getting 40.   40 seems to be the new 30.  And I gather 50 is now the new 40.

 

Supposedly the cap is slated to explode in 2024 so if they stagger/back load these contracts I gather teams can make due

The salary cap is projected to increase by 18-20mil per year, and even that isn’t enough to cope with some of these high positional value contracts now being handed out. It’s believed salary increase projections exceed the cap increase projections. 
 

I’d estimate that the cap level hits 300mil from its current 208mil in 4 years/seasons. The money in the league may well spiral out of control and as that cap level jumps quickly players will be wanting deals re-written league wide.

[Skinsinparadise]

The thing I've noticed over time is the good to very good QBs -- the ones who are more or less between 10-16 or so get a lot of flak and hate from their fan base.  It's interesting to me.   

 

A dude like Derek Carr is very polarizing with their fan base.  That's easy to see.  Kirk, ditto.  Heck Alex Smith was with the Chiefs towards the end-- some of their fans came on to this board to crap on him when we acquired him, I recall it well. and some of the KC media talked about in on the local radio stations when we acquired hiim.  Wentz obviously is big time polarizing.  The current version of Matt Ryan gets some reaction, too.  Stafford was too until last season which I think shut up his critics.

 

Why?  I am guessing some of it is because one of the differences between the elite guys and that next tier is consistency.  How often does Aaron Rodgers have a bad game for example?  Also the supporting cast makes a bigger difference to the 2nd tier QB where losing some guys (which happens every season) can hurt them more so than the elite guys which I think is also part of the consistency game.  Football is an emotional sport to fans so the highs feel great but the lows feel awful.  So when you have a bit more of that up and down see saw experience it provides more angst.

 

A dude like Tony Romo for example was way better than the scrubs Dallas had at QB for years before that.  Yet Romo probably got the most hate considering they hated him for not being elite and couldn't beat the big boy elite QBs often but also for the roller coaster his play provided.  Now supposedly that is what we are in for with Wentz according to most of his critics.  Will see.

 

The reason why I can take it with Wentz though versus the other QB trades is that he has elite potential.  Alex was never great.   McNabb was never great.  Brunell was never great.  McNabb and Brunell were on the downside of good careers -- not great careers.  Alex was coming off of his career year, only season where he hit 4000 yards and only one with over 25 TDs.  Brunell with an under 60% career completion rate and also only one year with 4000 yards plus.  McNabb also with under 60% completion rate in his career and he never threw for 4000 yards. 

 

Carson Wentz's "down" season last year for the Colts would be a borderline career year for Alex, McNabb, Brunell.  And the media pretty much celebrated those other three deals.  And this is the deal they crap on?  Wentz is the most talented QB they've acquired in any of these deals and IMO it isn't close.  I am not saying for sure he will work out.  But how about swinging for the fences for a change?  this deal is a swing for the fences deal.  The other QBs put ceilings on the team.  This one IMO does not. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

The salary cap is projected to increase by 18-20mil per year, and even that isn’t enough to cope with some of these high positional value contracts now being handed out. It’s believed salary increase projections exceed the cap increase projections. 
 

I’d estimate that the cap level hits 300mil from its current 208mil in 4 years/seasons. The money in the league may well spiral out of control and as that cap level jumps quickly players will be wanting deals re-written league wide.

 

Joel Corry, ex-agent, and self declared cap specialist talked about it some.  If I recall he didn't think it climbs to a crazy extent next year. But in 2024 it should because the new TV deals kick in. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Darth Tater]

3 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

I agree. Sand that 2018 collapse was not under Smith. Plus the injury. 

 

We saw Cousins teams get off to hot starts in 2015, 2016 and 2017 but every year they fell apart. This is why I compared him to Stafford because that was the normal thing with the Lions. They'd just be a fake 6-2 every year.

 

I see what Wentz did in Philly in 2017, 2019 and Indy in 2021. He was injured in 2018 but was still putting up numbers if not wins. Then I'm 2020 is when their line went down and they're playing ps guys who had never played football. I am thinking this is the best offseason move we've made since Gibbs 1. 

In 2015, Kirk didn't get 'hot' until the second half of the Tampa game (game 7) before that, he was looking like JAG. Just before the half of that game, I was wondering who our coach would be the next week. Even into the fourth quarter, it looked like the NFC-East at that time was going to be New York, Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington.

[HTTSkins]

On 5/27/2022 at 11:43 AM, CobraCommander said:

I'm getting Sexy Rexy Flashbacks. 

Came to post this! “**** it throw it deep” hahhaha

[Thinking Skins]

33 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

In 2015, Kirk didn't get 'hot' until the second half of the Tampa game (game 7) before that, he was looking like JAG. Just before the half of that game, I was wondering who our coach would be the next week. Even into the fourth quarter, it looked like the NFC-East at that time was going to be New York, Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington.

You're right although I thought the consensus was the Atlanta game. But we won 6 of our last 8 and we looked good going into the next season. Then started 6-3-1 with the tie due to Gano. And collapsed. Then in 2017 I was wrong because we were 7-9. I don't remember that at all. Is that where we had the no name OL beating the Seahawks? And had Pryor and Doctson? I really thought they were with Smith their year together. Anyway I take back my statement.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

16 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As I told you on those Jay rant threads of yours at the time that there is a reason why some of straggler pro Bruce people saw you as an alley to their point and they said so on those threads. 

 

Why?  You almost never took shots at Bruce on the FO thread.  You angst wasn't divided.  It was mostly directed at Jay.  And much of your thesis was that Jay underperformed the roster handed to him by Bruce.  If Bruce is doing a decent job handing Jay the groceries, isn't Jay the issue?

 

I do think you didn't care for Bruce.  But my point is you were so relentless on Jay and relatively light on Bruce as for taking shots that whether you intended to or not, you gave off the impression to some that Jay was problem #1.   

I don't really want to get into a Jay vs. Bruce debate here.  I'm going to let it lie with this statement: that was causation without correlation.  I didn't pile on in the Bruce threads as much because there wasn't really any need to. Just about everybody was saying just about the same thing, and it was basically an echo chamber. There were a very few holdovers, and I honestly didn't waste my time arguing with them.  I agreed with almost all of it, so there was little I could add.  I do think I liked a whole lot of your posts (and others) in the threads, FWIW.  

 

And Jay DID underperform some of the rosters he was handed, whether it was handed to him by Bruce, holdovers from Shanahan, sheer freaking dumb luck, or by Kyle Smith.  The 2016 team should have won 10 games at a minimum, probably 11 or 12.  The roster was more Shanahan than Bruce at that point. I don't give Bruce credit for "building" that roster.  But there is no question they underperformed.  That was the straw that broke the camel's back for me. 

 

 

16 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Nothing specific to Jay but ALL coaches here are handicapped.  I hated Zorn probably more than you disliked Jay.  but I still thought Cerrato and Dan acted like immature douches as for how they handled him that 2nd year.  And Zorn was a nice guy, I can't say the same for Dan.

 

In that same token most found Jay likeable.  Whereas Bruce wasn't but more on point Bruce's tentacles ran much deeper to destroy this franchise along with his put put buddy. 

There is no question ever coach since Marty has been hampered in some way by Dan in some way.  Marty wasn't because he basically threw him out and said "go away" and didn't even talk to him.  (FWIW, I still think that was a bad plan.  If he had placated him just a little bit, he probably wouldn't have been fired.  But whatever.)

 

- Gibbs needed a competent football GM type to at least run the scouting and help him with trade values.  Beathard controlled that in the Gibbs I days, but Gibbs had final say-so on the 53 man roster.  They needed something similar, even if it was "informal" because Joe had final say-so.  And he had Vinny.  And that was bad.

 

- Zorn was a complete fool, but even as a complete fool, he also had Vinny and some pretty terrible rosters. And yeah, Dan and Vinny were really terrible to Zorn.  Then Dan fired Vinny, and Bruce wasn't much better with him at the end.  

 

- Mike had Bruce and Dan, who traded for McNugget, who Mike didn't want.  (Granted, the guy he wanted sucked also, so there's that.)  And Dan got close to Griffin which undercut his authority.  

 

- Jay had almost no power in terms of decision making authority.  He had some guys he liked, and some guys he advocated for who really worked out, but in the end, Bruce ran the show, and Jay had to do the best he could with what he had.

 

- Ron has had to deal with a million off-the-field things, the name change, workplace misconduct, ownership turmoil, congressional investigations, stadium intrigue, etc.  None of those things are of Ron's making, and he's undercut at every turn by Dan and the organization.  It just makes life harder to go win.  

 

There is absolutely no question every coach since Marty (and Norv too if you want to go back before Marty) has been negatively effected by Dan, and his stooges Vinny and Bruce.  

 

[SkinsFTW]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The thing I've noticed over time is the good to very good QBs -- the ones who are more or less between 10-16 or so get a lot of flak and hate from their fan base.  It's interesting to me.   

 

 

It would be one thing if those average-above average QB's had their standard decent season, then signed for 60% of what an Aaron Rodgers signs for, so say 25M now (basically what Wentz is getting now) instead of 40+ but they want the max deal as if they are elite. Then the teams usually can't get past 10 wins and can't afford to sign the 1-2 extra defensive players that would make up some of the difference. So, at that point those QB's deserve the flak IMO.

 

Hell, to me even Aaron Rodgers deserves some of that too considering him playing so bad in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Brady plays for 10-15m less and then the Bucs goes out and can sign Gronk, Brown, etc. 

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, SkinsFTW said:

It would be one thing if those average-above average QB's had their standard decent season, then signed for 60% of what an Aaron Rodgers signs for, so say 25M now (basically what Wentz is getting now) instead of 40+ but they want the max deal as if they are elite. Then the teams usually can't get past 10 wins and can't afford to sign the 1-2 extra defensive players that would make up some of the difference. So, at that point those QB's deserve the flak IMO.

 

Hell, to me even Aaron Rodgers deserves some of that too considering him playing so bad in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Brady plays for 10-15m less and then the Bucs goes out and can sign Gronk, Brown, etc. 

 

Its already hard to win in the NFL. If your gonna shell out that kind of money to one position, they have to give you at least good R.O.I. or your practically stuck in the water before you begin. 

 

Wentz is doing exactly that as he is the 6th highest paid QB this year. If he is gonna cost us multiple other players, you gotta get that return from somewhere.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

It would be one thing if those average-above average QB's had their standard decent season, then signed for 60% of what an Aaron Rodgers signs for, so say 25M now (basically what Wentz is getting now) instead of 40+ but they want the max deal as if they are elite. Then the teams usually can't get past 10 wins and can't afford to sign the 1-2 extra defensive players that would make up some of the difference. So, at that point those QB's deserve the flak IMO.

 

Hell, to me even Aaron Rodgers deserves some of that too considering him playing so bad in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Brady plays for 10-15m less and then the Bucs goes out and can sign Gronk, Brown, etc. 

 

Money is part of it but the hate I noticed existed before the contracts escalated.   Romo for example.   Wentz for example the hate seems nothing to do with the money.  Carr was relatively cheap until now but still had a lot of detractors from what I can tell within the Raiders fan base -- lol I recall people on this very thread trashing the idea of trading for Carr this off season citing that he's not liked within his own fan base. 

 

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

17 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don't really want to get into a Jay vs. Bruce debate here.  I'm going to let it lie with this statement: that was causation without correlation.  I didn't pile on in the Bruce threads as much because there wasn't really any need to. Just about everybody was saying just about the same thing, and it was basically an echo chamber. 

 

 

I'll just leave the point after this one.  That is, it was far from an echo chamber.  It was a hotly debated topic.  Some who are on this thread like @goskins10 and @BatteredFanSyndrome among others likely remember that FO thread well.  It was heated and intense.  It was the reverse of an echo chamber. 

 

Bruce had some strong defenders.  I made enemies on this board from trashing Bruce.  Not so much as any other topic.  lol, I even said on the Bruce thread once that people don't recall that Vinny had his defenders too back in the day, some really passionate ones.  In retrospect, I said it sounds silly and no one can quite believe it.   But it really existed back then in real time. 

 

The fact that now Bruce fits the Vinny category of no way he had his defenders because its too wild to believe shows how full circle that thread has come to today.

 

It's cool we all got our opinions, some end up right, some end up wrong, I got no issues with the people who believed in Bruce back then but no it wasn't an echo chamber by a long shot.   It was probably the most intense thread we had on the board for years. 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'll just leave the point after this one.  That is, it was far from an echo chamber.  It was a hotly debated topic.  Some who are on this thread like @goskins10 and @BatteredFanSyndrome among others likely remember that FO thread well.  It was heated and intense.  It was the reverse of an echo chamber. 

 

Bruce had some strong defenders.  I made enemies on this board from trashing Bruce.  Not so much as any other topic.  lol, I even said on the Bruce thread once that people don't recall that Vinny had his defenders too back in the day, some really passionate ones.  In retrospect, I said it sounds silly and no one can quite believe it.   But it really existed back then it real time. 

 

The fact that now Bruce fits the Vinny category of no way he had his defenders because its too wild to believe shows how full circle that thread has come to today.

 

It's cool we all got our opinions, some end up right, some end up wrong, I got no issues with the people who believed in Bruce back then but no it wasn't an echo chamber by a long shot.   It was probably the most intense thread we had on the board for years. 

I guess I don’t remember that as much, after 2018 with the start of the #firevruceallen movement I kindof thought everyone was on board by that time.  Maybe I missed it or maybe I just compartmentalized it or maybe I came into it later…

 

Anywho, I was off the Bruce train somewhere in the 2017 area.  Maybe that was later than some.  
 

I was off Jay after 2016.

 

I’ve been off if Dan since my wife was in HS.  

[Burgold]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

I’ve been off if Dan since my wife was in HS.  

So, last year?

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

3 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Its already hard to win in the NFL. If your gonna shell out that kind of money to one position, they have to give you at least good R.O.I. or your practically stuck in the water before you begin. 

 

Wentz is doing exactly that as he is the 6th highest paid QB this year. If he is gonna cost us multiple other players, you gotta get that return from somewhere.

 

 

This has Wentz as the 10th highest paid QB this year:

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/2022/02/14/nfls-highest-paid-quarterbacks-2022-season-ranking-qbs-salary/6765693001/

 

 

[FootballZombie]

21 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

This has Wentz as the 10th highest paid QB this year:

 

That is a ranking of average pay over the course of a contract, not the cap hit the QB is slated to have this year.

 

Player	Team	Cap Number	Cash Spent
Ryan Tannehill	Titans	$38,600,000	$29,000,000
Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs	$35,793,381	$29,450,000
Kirk Cousins	Vikings	$31,416,668	$40,000,000
Jared Goff	Lions	$31,150,000	$26,150,000
Aaron Rodgers	Packers	$28,533,568	$42,000,000
Carson Wentz	Commanders	$28,295,118	$28,294,119

 

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2022/

 

We are a Tenn, Minn, KC or GB QB restructure spurred by making a move to cover for an injury or simply going all in away from having to hear the broadcasters say Wentz is a top 5 paid QB every week this year. He is already in the top 10 for the entire NFL.

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by FootballZombie

[SkinsFTW]

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

Anywho, I was off the Bruce train somewhere in the 2017 area.  Maybe that was later than some.  
 

 

Yeah, just a little bit! 

 

 

Oh, and this thread had a bunch of people talking about it in early 2010 

 

[TheShredder]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

 

That is a ranking of average pay over the course of a contract, not the cap hit the QB is slated to have this year.

 

Player	Team	Cap Number	Cash Spent
Ryan Tannehill	Titans	$38,600,000	$29,000,000
Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs	$35,793,381	$29,450,000
Kirk Cousins	Vikings	$31,416,668	$40,000,000
Jared Goff	Lions	$31,150,000	$26,150,000
Aaron Rodgers	Packers	$28,533,568	$42,000,000
Carson Wentz	Commanders	$28,295,118	$28,294,119

 

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2022/

 

We are a Tenn, Minn, KC or GB QB restructure spurred by making a move to cover for an injury or simply going all in away from having to hear the broadcasters say Wentz is a top 5 paid QB every week this year. He is already in the top 10 for the entire NFL.

 

According to what is most important to WSH and Turner Jr (deep passes 20+ yds), Wentz is consistently Top 10

 

[Cooleyfan1993]

7 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

You're right although I thought the consensus was the Atlanta game. But we won 6 of our last 8 and we looked good going into the next season. Then started 6-3-1 with the tie due to Gano. And collapsed. Then in 2017 I was wrong because we were 7-9. I don't remember that at all. Is that where we had the no name OL beating the Seahawks? And had Pryor and Doctson? I really thought they were with Smith their year together. Anyway I take back my statement.  

Hopkins. Gano was gone after the 2011 season i think. 
 

And that’s correct 2017 was the the year we unexpectedly beat the Seahawks in Seattle. A late TD from Kirk to doctson i believe. 
 

We did start off that season 2-1 though so we did start the season with a good record, you weren’t wrong. If not for doctson dropping that TD on MNF against the chiefs, we likely are 3-1, instead of 2-2. 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Cooleyfan1993

[FootballZombie]

9 minutes ago, TheShredder said:

According to what is most important to WSH and Turner Jr (deep passes 20+ yds),

 

If that was the most important thing to our team, they would have erected barriers to prevent TH from entering the facility. Any other QB would have been brought in before him, even in our desperation. They also would not have stuck with him for a year.

Edited June 6, 2022 by FootballZombie

[Voice_of_Reason]

So what if Wentz has the 6th highest cap hit this year?  
 

He also has no dead money after this year and his cap hits go down the next 2 years.

 

Tanehill isn’t great, he has a $38M cap hit and they can’t move him or cut him because he has a $56M dead cap number.  If they cut him next year, it’s an $18M hit

 

Goff is the worst offender on the list.

 

If Wentz plays like a top half of them league QB, which he’s done every year of his career minus one, The money doesn’t matter. 

 

If he doesn’t, he’s easily replaced.

 

Also of note, there are going to be some BIG QB numbers coming up.  A lot of restructured the last 2 years.  Dak’s number is going to explode. Others will as well.

 

 

 

[FootballZombie]

31 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So what if Wentz has the 6th highest cap hit this year?  

 

The more cap he sucks up, the less there is to spread around. Especially detrimental if the player isnt worth anywhere near the cost.

The greatest cost of Wentz is Wentz cost on the team.

 

40 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Goff is the worst offender on the list.

 

The Lions were paid to take on that contract. They knew it was bad, and got compensation to put it on their books.

 

40 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

If Wentz plays like a top half of them league QB, which he’s done every year of his career minus one, The money doesn’t matter. 

 

If Wentz continues to play as he has been playing, he will find himself in the same situations. Teams either wont want him, or they will not feel confident enough in him to view him as a long term solution. He has to get better in order to justify anything.

 

More of the same play will net him more of the same results.

[Warhead36]

QB salaries are only going to go higher and higher. Jackson and Murray haven't signed long term deals yet. And after this year you'll have Herbert, Burrow, and if he finally shows up Tua will all be eligible for extensions.