The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

  This has been one of my worries with all the talk of Russell Wilson coming here. We seem to be convincing ourselves more and more every day (with plenty of goading from spots media) that it's a real possibility.

 

I still say it's probably a less than 5% chance it happens. We'd have to convince him to add us to his short list (which we reportedly aren't on at the moment) and then also convince the Seahawks to trade him within the NFC.

 

Some people are going to end up with their hearts broken over this when we find out later that it was never even close and it was all just media hype.

 

The odds are low for any specific players just because competition for said player but the bigger question IMO does said player actually get traded.

 

But I am not even a tiny bit worried that Wilson has some hardcore top 4 teams he's willing to be traded to and if you aren't on that magic list, you are out.  The list supposedly leaked by his agent according to a reporter, which Wilson himself denied.  I used to think that this hard list (if that list was actually true) was true but more information made me think, it probably isnt true at least from the perspective of its those 4 teams or bust.

 

I debated this with you a little weeks ago here after reading an article in the Athletic that those who knew Wilson didn't think he'd in the end put a fight against any team that they'd trade him to.  And there was something else in that pile that made me think its a possibiity that Wilson wouldn't resist coming here, that other thing I mentioned then is now escaping me.

 

Adding all of that and Sheehan saying he had two super reliabe sources (Sheehan rarely shares gossip but when he has I don't recall him ever getting something wrong) that told him some have spoken to Wilson and Wilson told them he'd be cool coming here.  That's the kicker for me to believe that Wilson indeed is willing to come here.  It likely doesn't matter what his agent leaks as to his 4 favorite teams he'd like to go to, assuming its even a legit leak.  Having said that since I do trust Sheehan on the very rare times he shares gossip, if he backtracks on this at 7 am or so when he is supposed to share more information on this or doubles down, then I'll buy that too.  I'll buy the information whether its negative or positive on this if its coming from Sheehan.

 

My impression based on all I absorbed on Wilson, which is a lot, I've read a series of articles about this for months from Seattle and national reporters along with different podcasts.  That is, Wilson needs to have the guts to ask for a trade.  If he makes a stink of wanting a trade, he probably will get traded.  If he doesn't make a stink of wanting a trade, he almost for sure won't get traded.  Wilson seems self conscious about his legacy in Seattle.  And I think the main thing working against him being traded is would he be publicly willing to come off as malcontented about his situation in Seattle -- Rodgers' style.    I am not so sure he has the balls to do that.  He seems to want to leave but keep a goody goody image with Seattle fans.  I don't think he can easily thread that needle.

 

On the off chance, he does hit the market, I think we'd have a decent shot mainly from the perspective that I suspect we'd be the highest bidder.  But the big question I got is does he even hit the market.

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

The Kyler Murray situation is something to keep an eye on. Not necessarily FOR us (NFC team... harder to trade for but not totally impossible) but for the QB dominoes.

 

I think its contract posturing. But if he hits the block I imagine the Steelers would do what they had to in order to get him to Pittsburgh. Not their character, but Murray would make that team immediately capable of competing and beating Buffalo, KC, Cincy, Baltimore, etc.

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Trading for established 33 yo QBs hasn't worked and throwing a ton of draft picks at the draft hasn't worked, but what if we do them both together?

 

Trading for established 2nd tier QBs, 2 of those 3 were actually declining to boot when acquired, the one QB who wasn't declining though had a career changing/ ending injury so he ended up declining anyway.

 

The crazy thing is even trading for 2nd tier QBs had some limited success.  They made the playoffs with Brunell.  Alex went 6-4 and then 5-1.  

 

How many times have we traded for first tier, elite level QBs?  Never.  Russell Wilson doesn't belong in the same conversation with those 2nd tier guys

 

When we've had even competent QB play, we've won.  The only 2 back to back winning seasons we've had under Dan, granted barely over 500 was with Kirk, 2015-2016 and were one game from making the playoffs back to back seasons.  With Alex 6-4, 5-1.  Going 10-6 with RG3 and winning the division.  Heck we even rode with Todd Collins to the playoffs.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

lol, Sheehan's segment on Wilson which he teased last night, is a bit of a tease.   He's about to explain why would or wouldn't Seattle trade him, so unless he adds something new, there is nothing new from yesterday

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Hitman#21]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

lol, Sheehan's segment on Wilson which he teased last night, is a bit of a tease.   He's about to explain why would or wouldn't Seattle trade him, so unless he adds something new, there is nothing new from yesterday

 

 

 

 

 

starting to believe he made up this Russ stuff for people to listen 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Hitman#21 said:

starting to believe he made up this Russ stuff for people to listen 

  
 

I don’t believe that at all as for him lying about this. He doesn’t break many stories but when he has I can’t recall him ever being wrong.

 

Ive had beefs with some of his takes but Sheehan isn’t a liar

[DWinzit]

Do we know for certain if Wilson wants to be the scrambling around guy or does he want a controlled run game. At his age I would assume the latter but I have read mixed info on this

[Conn]

6 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

You guys are going to be let down.

 

We probably end up with a 3rd tier guy and give that guy a 3-4 year deal and that will be it. We won't draft a QB this year or next.

 

 

That QB will be mediocre and Ron gets fired after the 23 season.

 

Almost every single one of your posts angles to talk about Rivera getting fired. He’s either already been fired in a hypothetical, on his way to being fired, or absolutely destined to be fired. It’s almost mentioned in every one of your posts, but you go to great pains to not outwardly advocate for it for some reason. Did someone put a curse on you? Are you some sort of mystical Fey creature that is forbidden to say what they mean and has to talk in circles to get to their point? 

[Thinking Skins]

I'm in a wait and see approach from this whole offseason so I don't really have a preference. But I wanted to go against some of the anti-Jimmy G talk. 

 

First there's the comparison of him to other QBs we've traded for. Look at some of the stats. 

Smith

67% completion, 3500+ yards 15 TDs, 7.2 ypa, 182 1Ds

67% completion, 4000 yards, 26 TDs. 8.0 ypa, 182 1Ds

McNabb

60% completion, 3900 yards, 23 TDs, 6.9 ypa, 141 1Ds

60% completion, 3500 yards, 22 TDs, 8/0 ypa, 152 1Ds

Brunell

58% completion, 2700 yards 17 TDs, 6.7 ypa, 140 1Ds

61% completion, 3300 yards, 19 TDs, 7.0 ypa, 152 1Ds

Jimmy G

69% completion, 3900 yards, 27 TDs, 8.4 ypa. 193 1Ds

68% completion, 3800 yards, 28TDs, 8.6 ypa, 172 1Ds

Wilson

68% completion, 4200 yards, 40TDs, 7.5 ypa, 213 1Ds

64% completion, 3100 yards, 25TDs 7.8 ypa, 135 1Ds

 

Maybe its just that the league is more of a passing league but Jimmy G is not the checkdown Charlie that Alex Smith was. Sure they built an offense around his flaws but he still got almost 4000 yards the two seasons he completed. Plus he's got the highest YPA of the 5 QBs we're talking about. And if we talk about TD%, he's behind Wilson who has a 6.2, but Jimmy G has a 5 whereas Brunell, McNabb and Smith are all in the 4s (4, 4.4, 3.8 respectively). 

 

I do worry about his injuries and think he's a step down from Wilson but I don't think he's on the same level as those guys. I mean he's two years older than Heinicke and I think he's a clear upgrade over the guy. Maybe he's not the guy to take us all the way but then again maybe he is, he did take SF there and just went to the NFC Championship game for the second time in his career. 

[goskins10]

I think not trading in conference is not what it used to be. For example this year outside division games we play 6 conference games and 5 non-conference games. Last year is was 6 - 4. Back when there was no in season cross-over between conferences I think that was more true. But now you play almost as many non-division conference games as you do non-conference games. 

 

What does not happen unless you have a ****ing idiot like dan snyder who you can send a dead armed washed up QB to a division foe, you do not trade within the division. The link below is a list of NFL QB transactions. While there are more non-conference trades there are quite a few in conference. Arguably the biggest QB trade in the last decade or so was in conference. I just think GMs are not as worried about in-conference since teams play an entire division in the other conference. But in division trades are still very much off the table as they should be. 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/quarterback/trade/

 

I think it will come down to player preference and the deal given. So I think the team has decent chance at some of these guys if the team is willing to give a competitive deal. give Wilson an oline and a running game (although admittedly Rashad Penny provided a boost to the run game at the end of last year, but he has to stay healthy) and he could thrive. Carroll has ignored the oline for several years. This year they have the opportunity with 3 members of thier Oline becoming FAs this year. 

 

For me, Wilson is one of the few names I would sell the farm for, he would actualy be my #1 target given who is projected to be available. They need to make a run like they did for Stafford only this time win. Saying we gave a good offer but got outbid cannot continue to be the refrain. Unlike others I don't think RR is on any kind of hot seat. But he does need to bring in a true potential QB in to stay there more than through 2023. Danny bay cannot fire RR right now. he needs him to provide legitimacy through the name change. 

 

For me, Wilson is this years Matthew Stafford. If it were me making the decisions he would be my first choice. After that, maybe Carr if he shakes free. Watsons has the talent but I would need to know more about his off the field issues. If not those, then do what you need to get your #1 target in the draft, forget about where he should go or is projected. If he is your guy go get him. Some as the Wilson approach, don't get outbid or let someone jump over you. Then bring in a 2nd tier guy like Trubisky/Bridgewater, etc (no to Jimmy G - will be too expensive for a bridge QB and is jsut not good enough) as a bridge QB to your rookie. 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Listening to Sheehan, it was basically a rehash of yesterday's discussion

 

A. Wilson is cool with coming here.

B.  He said this part isn't a report but all indications are we'd be aggressive if he hit the market

C.  He talked about the fun fantasy if you could choose Rodgers or Wilson who would you choose -- he likes Wilson but would choose Rodgers

D.  Has doubts Seattle would trade Wilson

E.  Has doubts Seattle would trade him to the NFC

 

As for the past, if the below story is true, I'd think us not having a Qb to give in exchange would hurt.  I know the Heinicke Hive would see this as blasphemy but IMO Heinicke has no value in a trade back.  Even guys that we aren't that high on like Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Tua, etc would bring more trade value or maybe give Seattle some hope.   I figure on the off chance Wilson hits the market, we'd have to swing a third party in the trade if Seattle wants some QB in return.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/after-seahawks-reject-bears-offer-russell-wilson-drama-should-cease-for-now

Out of those four potential landing spots, the Bears proved to be the most aggressive courting Wilson. Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Seahawks general manager John Schneider met with Bears general manager Ryan Pace when the two were in Fargo, North Dakota last week for North Dakota State's pro day to discuss a potential trade. Ultimately, without a quality quarterback or a top pick coming back in return, coach Pete Carroll shot down the proposal, reportedly declining an offer for three first-round picks, a third-round pick, and two unnamed starters.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[DJHJR86]

The Seahawks kept the same coaching staff that has been with Wilson his entire career, and Wilson has two years left on his deal.  There is no way he's getting traded.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Someone correct me if I am wrong but YPA I believe factors YAC?  So if you throw a 3 yard hitch to Deebo Samuel and he takes it another 5 yards it adds to 8 YPA for that throw? SF famously have monster YAC guys.

 

Some advocate average depth per target -- how far the QB is throwing.  If so these are the rankings. 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Chris 44]

28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to Sheehan, it was basically a rehash of yesterday's discussion

 

A. Wilson is cool with coming here.

B.  He said this part isn't a report but all indications are we'd be aggressive if he hit the market

C.  He talked about the fun fantasy if you could choose Rodgers or Wilson who would you choose -- he likes Wilson but would choose Rodgers

D.  Has doubts Seattle would trade Wilson

E.  Has doubts Seattle would trade him to the NFC

 

As for the past, if the below story is true, I'd think us not having a Qb to give in exchange would hurt.  I know the Heinicke Hive would see this as blasphemy but IMO Heinicke has no value in a trade back.  Even guys that we aren't that high on like Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Tua, etc would bring more trade value or maybe give Seattle some hope.   I figure on the off chance Wilson hits the market, we'd have to swing a third party in the trade if Seattle wants some QB in return.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/after-seahawks-reject-bears-offer-russell-wilson-drama-should-cease-for-now

Out of those four potential landing spots, the Bears proved to be the most aggressive courting Wilson. Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Seahawks general manager John Schneider met with Bears general manager Ryan Pace when the two were in Fargo, North Dakota last week for North Dakota State's pro day to discuss a potential trade. Ultimately, without a quality quarterback or a top pick coming back in return, coach Pete Carroll shot down the proposal, reportedly declining an offer for three first-round picks, a third-round pick, and two unnamed starters.

wow. That's steep!  Referencing what Carroll shot down.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Chris 44

[Riggo#44]

15 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Twietnam

 

Oh ****. I am signing over my first born for that one.

15 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Well, Twietnam is exploding with the news that Kyler Murray has deleted all photos of him associated with the Cardinals from his social media.

 

Passive aggressive bull**** aside, I'd ship 4 first rounders tomorrow for him and call it a day.

 

Flame on

I would put a monster deal together for Murray and not think twice about it. No one would be off the table--not McLaurin, not Allen, not Young.

[Thinking Skins]

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Someone correct me if I am wrong but YPA I believe factors YAC?  So if you throw a 3 yard hitch to Deebo Samuel and he takes it another 5 yards it adds to 8 YPA for that throw? SF famously have monster YAC guys.

 

Some advocate average depth per target -- how far the QB is throwing.  If so these are the rankings. 

 

 

 

 

That's a good pull but I think it depends on what you want to put your weights on. We can see guys like Brunell, Smith and McNabb who all had lower YPAs than Jimmy. They all had dominant WR/RBs who could get YAC. Heck McNabb had Jackson in his years before coming here. There's clearly a disparity between things like Air yards and YPA. I don't really have a horse in this race but I don't want to disqualify Jimmy because people think he's not qualified. If his best weapon is Deebo though, then what routes is Deebo running? And he's getting the ball in the hands of the weapon in a position for them to get YAC is something that Haskins and Heinicke struggled with. And don't we have a similar to SF offense with the whole multiple RB/WR flex position people who we want to get the ball in their hands. Basically Jimmy has shown he can run our offense better than we run it. 

 

I won't say I really want him, but I am not opposed to him and I think he is an upgrade to what we have. That said, your pull lets us know that it may be some frustrations like it was with Smith not hitting whoever our WR is that is going deep sometimes. But the difference from today is that we will know that Jimmy can do that, so teams won't be stacking the box daring him to do it. 

[Koolblue13]

 

[HigSkin]

50 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As for the past, if the below story is true, I'd think us not having a Qb to give in exchange would hurt.  I know the Heinicke Hive would see this as blasphemy but IMO Heinicke has no value in a trade back.  Even guys that we aren't that high on like Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Tua, etc would bring more trade value or maybe give Seattle some hope.   I figure on the off chance Wilson hits the market, we'd have to swing a third party in the trade if Seattle wants some QB in return.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/news/after-seahawks-reject-bears-offer-russell-wilson-drama-should-cease-for-now

Out of those four potential landing spots, the Bears proved to be the most aggressive courting Wilson. Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Seahawks general manager John Schneider met with Bears general manager Ryan Pace when the two were in Fargo, North Dakota last week for North Dakota State's pro day to discuss a potential trade. Ultimately, without a quality quarterback or a top pick coming back in return, coach Pete Carroll shot down the proposal, reportedly declining an offer for three first-round picks, a third-round pick, and two unnamed starters.

 

I wonder how Carroll feels about JimmyG?  It would be hilarious to put together a monster multi trade deal that sent JimmyG to us and turned around and moved him to Seattle with picks.  Talk about a rollercoaster board meltdown.  LOL

[Koolblue13]

Just now, HigSkin said:

 

I wonder how Carroll feels about JimmyG?  It would be hilarious to put together a monster multi trade deal that sent JimmyG to us and turned around and moved him to Seattle with picks.  Talk about a rollercoaster board meltdown.  LOL

and then lose to them in the championship game    #classiccommanders

[Inigo Montoya]

Wow, I didn’t know about that Chicago report. Good Lord that’s a steep offer to turn down… time to fire up the Jimmy G bandwagon 

I’m still holding out hope for Mariota and Corrall!

Edited February 8, 2022 by Inigo Montoya

[goskins10]

45 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Someone correct me if I am wrong but YPA I believe factors YAC?  So if you throw a 3 yard hitch to Deebo Samuel and he takes it another 5 yards it adds to 8 YPA for that throw? SF famously have monster YAC guys.

 

Some advocate average depth per target -- how far the QB is throwing.  If so these are the rankings. 

 

 

 

 

 

THis is good data. I do not see Air Yds/Att. That is what I normally see as a good metric of a QBs depth of throw not yds/att. This has both intended air yards and completed air yds. It gets closer to a QBs accuracy and distance of that accuracy. Below are the top 20. You can see the entire list here: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm

 

 

[wit33]

If Russel Wilson requires a new contract paying him top dollar upon arrival that’s a bad sign. If he’s still focused on maximizing his dollars at this stage of his career, then a strong pass for me. Not saying the dude is wrong for it, but it doesn’t equate to being a contender. 

For example, Staffords motives appear to be legacy and team driven at this stage of his career versus getting the most money. He’s playing at a pay rate that allows the Rams to have a great roster. 
 

The QB MUST work with the team. 

[Est.1974]

44 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

wow. That's steep!  Referencing what Carroll shot down.

Pete Carroll will be in self preservation mode, thinking about what he wants short term before dropping them in the **** in the near future. Wilson needs to work out where he is best off being for the last 5 years of his career. He can seriously cash in now. Seattle should absolutely maximise that trade value right now as well.

 

Start over without Wilson, or keep him and dump Carroll.

[HigSkin]

Dan Graziano on Get Up just said Wilson remaining in Seattle is an overreaction and that he really does think theres a real possibility Wilson will explore his options and force a trade.

 

 

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, wit33 said:

If Russel Wilson requires a new contract paying him top dollar upon arrival that’s a bad sign. If he’s still focused on maximizing his dollars at this stage of his career, then a strong pass for me. Not saying the dude is wrong for it, but it doesn’t equate to being a contender. 

For example, Staffords motives appear to be legacy and team driven at this stage of his career versus getting the most money. He’s playing at a pay rate that allows the Rams to have a great roster. 
 

The QB MUST work with the team. 

I would expect Stafford to get a massive contract extension in the next few months.