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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


Koolblue13

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As for tht Breer article.  People are all over the place on the college QBs, every article seems to have a different bent just about

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/02/07/mmqb-super-bowl-week-bengals-scouts-rams-los-angeles

• AFC college scouting director: “What’s your threshold for a starter? It’s kind of a broad term. I don’t think there’s an above average starter in the group. Maybe there are a couple of average starters. … If there’s two guys you can make an argument helped themselves it’s Ridder and Willis. Ridder almost by default, just by being consistent. I’m not saying he had a great week, but he comes out ahead by just looking steady. And he was very steady. The highs weren’t that high, but there was no Whoa, what was that? Willis has an absolute cannon; he can rip it. He doesn’t read the defense, but his arm even more live than on tape.”

• 

AFC exec No. 2: “It was an average showing all the way around. No one really stood out as a top-level guy. Malik showed the most athleticism and arm strength. You just question how ready he is, coming from the offenses [at Auburn and Liberty] he is.”

So, in summary, it does feel like the quarterbacks left Mobile with more questions than they came in with. For all the jokes about Pickett’s hand size, his are smaller than just about any NFL starter, scouts did feel like it was an issue in how the Pitt product threw it at a rainy outdoor practice Wednesday. North Carolina’s Sam Howell physically looked like a mid-round pick to the evaluators on hand. And that Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe was even at America’s premier college all-star game and draft showcase, per one scout, “tells you everything you need to know about the quarterback class.”

 

• As I mentioned in last week’s MAQB—keep an eye on Washington as an aggressor on the quarterback market over the next two months.

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2 hours ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

What did cause me to reevaluate my stance on Malik is what he said next. Sheehan said that he doesn't care about the floor when evaluating the qb position only the ceiling is relevant-- what could the player become if he fulfills his potential.

Sheehan switched up his QB methodology over the course of the Playoffs. In nearly every game the better QB has won. You have to have an elite QB if you want to consistently compete. Sheehan is correct. If a guy busts or is just ok it doesnt matter. The ceiling and the likelihood of reaching that ceiling is the most important part of QB evlaution in todays game. Its why Mac was QB 5 last year. Its why this class isnt seen as good as last. It lacks elite talent across the board. Malik has the best chance in this draft and will likely be drafted as the number one QB because of it. 

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

I listen to Sheehan sometimes.

 

But I disregard almost every one of his QB takes. Guy thinks Darnold is a good QB.

 

He's right about the floor and ceiling. However, I'm not sure the floor being disregarded is at all smart from a strategic point of view.

Well earlier this post season he came out and said he doesnt even want a QB like Kirk any more. 

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ESPN, new mock via Jason Reid

 

6. Carolina Panthers

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

After the Panthers played musical chairs with quarterbacks in 2021, they take a swing on the raw talent of Willis. The big QB decision they have is this: Do they go with the class' most physically gifted thrower in Willis or think about Kenny Pickett, who's more ready to play right away? Willis is a long-term project, so the challenging part for the Panthers is remaining patient and developing him considering the pressure on the coaching staff to win entering Year 3 for Matt Rhule. This could also be a spot to watch for a trade down, and Carolina -- which hasn't drafted an offensive lineman in Round 1 since Jeff Otah in 2008 -- could look to the O-line, too.

Biggest needs: QB, OL, WR

 

11. Washington Commanders

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

The Commanders have to upgrade at quarterback, and they'll likely be in the running for veterans via free agency or trade to provide competition for Taylor Heinicke. In this scenario, they look to the draft to try to find their long-term answer at the position. Pickett, who started 49 games in college, is ready to step in and play in Year 1. He took a massive leap in 2021, throwing 42 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.

Biggest needs: QB, OL, DB

 

18. New Orleans Saints

Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

Corral was the lone potential first-round quarterback who couldn't participate in the all-star circuit because he hasn't graduated from school, which means his performances next month at his pro day and the NFL combine will be crucial. There are still a wide range of possibilities in which he could be selected. He could make sense for the Saints, though, who might need to use the draft to find their 2022 starter because of their salary-cap issues. Drafting a young signal-caller would give them a cheaper option for five seasons. Corral is a quick processor who has the release to match. Praised for his leadership and magnetic personality, this is an ideal landing spot for him.

Biggest needs: QB, DB, WR

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

One of the worst-kept secrets at the Senior Bowl was the Steelers' desire to draft a quarterback to replace Ben Roethlisberger. During the second day of practices, coach Mike Tomlin and general manager Kevin Colbert paced back and forth down the sideline in a downpour of rain getting an up-close view of prospects. Howell, who had 24 touchdown passes and nine picks in 2021, had several high moments at the Senior Bowl. The Steelers have shown in previous years that they aren't afraid to trade up to acquire a player they really like, which means they are a team to watch if they don't acquire a veteran signal-caller.

Biggest needs: QB, OL, CB

 

47. Indianapolis Colts

Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

Don't be surprised if the Colts take a quarterback with their first pick in this draft. General manager Chris Ballard was clearly not happy about Carson Wentz's finish to the season. The 6-foot-3 Ridder is polished in going through progressions -- he took a big step in 2021, leading the Bearcats to the College Football Playoff -- and he can execute in all areas of the field. He could be an appealing backup plan to Wentz, who isn't owed much guaranteed money on the rest of his contract.

Biggest needs: OT, WR, CB

 

64. Denver Broncos (via LAR)

Carson Strong, QB, Nevada

 

Who will play quarterback for the Broncos in 2022? Drew Lock enters the final season of his rookie deal, and Teddy Bridgewater is a free agent. If the Broncos go the draft route, Round 2 could have a few options. Strong will likely be on the board, if the medical reports for his knee check out. He has a strong arm, and he was given a lot of autonomy at the line of scrimmage for the Wolf Pack, which means he has experience with handling pro-level schemes. He threw 36 touchdown passes and eight interceptions while completing 70% of his passes last season.

Biggest needs: QB, EDGE, OT

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/33227214/nfl-mock-draft-2022-jordan-reid-new-two-round-predictions-top-64-picks-featuring-six-quarterbacks-senior-bowl-risers

 

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The Murray thing is weird. Haven't really read anything about him being disgruntled. Maybe he's peeved that they haven't hammered out a new contract yet? That still seems like an odd thing to completely remove your team's references on your social media for, though.

 

That one is even more unlikely than any of the other trade rumors, so I think it's mostly safe to ignore. The Cards aren't trading Murray  :ols:

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4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Willis apparently killed it at the Senior Bowl. He will not last to 11. 

Well....no one killed. He did prove his ceiling was high and probably raised it some

 

I don't think Ridder last until 47. My guess is he goes in the 30's.

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11 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Willis apparently killed it at the Senior Bowl. He will not last to 11. 

 

Not at all, I watched every one of his snaps live. He has a strong arm and showed that, but sometimes you need to have touch too, even the commentators discussed that not every ball needs to be a cannon shot, he absolutely threw an awful duck of a deep ball and on the plus side ran around quite a bit. He's maybe a Lamar Jackson at his ceiling... and honestly I prefer a guy who can produce with his arm + mobility. Not running as a primary skill. 

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Something about Pickett just bothers me and I can’t place it.

 

What’s the hit rate on 3-4 year starters who only blow up with an elite season their final year? 
 

I don’t just mean guys with only 1 elite year—that bucket includes guys who didn’t start before for a multitude of reasons and I’m not trying to capture that. I mean guys who played a LOT and who, by the time they finally had their first elite college season as a QB, were the oldest and most experienced on the field by far. It gets held against WRs and RBs as prospects, should it be held against QBs as well? Pickett was miserable until this year, and something clicked. That type of growth seems good but is the very late breakout actually a red flag the way that it can be for skill position players?

Edited by Conn
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3 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

How did Russ tease anything this weekend?  Please say something else other than taking a pic with Jon Allen and his wife.

I saw that keim reported that Russell Wilson wouldn’t be against playing in Washington. 
 

EDIT: Sheehan, not keim. 

Edited by Cooleyfan1993
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Willis has the highest floor, many are looking at it through an old view point. Day 1, the team can run college run/pass option plays and be a top rushing attack. This is his floor, most likely providing average level of impact on a game, just not through passing the ball. The other QBs will struggle to leave their imprints game to game, whereas Willis’ run ability will immediately make him an impact player. 
 

Highest floor is Malik Willis. 

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2 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Willis has the highest floor, many are looking at it through an old view point. Day 1, the team can run college run/pass option plays and be a top rushing attack. This is his floor, most likely providing average level of impact on a game, just not through passing the ball. The other QBs will struggle to leave their imprints game to game, whereas Willis’ run ability will immediately make him an impact player. 
 

Highest floor is Malik Willis. 

 

I think you're looking at it from a bias view point and not seeing the whole picture. So.... there's that. This is what happens when we speak in absolutes.

 

To your point: Yes, running around using a college offense and having him produce to a similar level as his collegiate level is close to his floor.

 

image.png.980546eae00f5a3e32562463af85d6c8.pngimage.png.2c250055b0eb40e73d29add61b064bc7.png

Of course, now you factor in that he's playing against NFL defenses who are used to seeing running QBs so while his legs are effective they are going to be a touch less on display in the League. 

 

Take a look at his 2021 game by game:

 

image.png.9e02c25f632669da976fc64c68073c1b.png

image.png.97f8adafb2f5887a0c54b870004e7373.png

He struggled most against good defenses.

 

But now we have to also adjust for the fact that he wasn't playing with game breaking talent on his side.

 

Running a college offense isn't exactly a great thing in the NFL, either. So to think that his floor is "top rushing attack" is a bit of an inflated projection. Kyler Murray is one of the most mobile QBs in the league, his offense isn't exactly a top rushing attack.

 

Whereas Jackson does have a top rushing attack.

 

Where I agree with you is that his ceiling is quite high. We disagree on the floor as well as NFL readiness.

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20 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Willis has the highest floor, many are looking at it through an old view point. Day 1, the team can run college run/pass option plays and be a top rushing attack. This is his floor, most likely providing average level of impact on a game, just not through passing the ball. The other QBs will struggle to leave their imprints game to game, whereas Willis’ run ability will immediately make him an impact player. 
 

Highest floor is Malik Willis. 

 

So the fact that if he busts as an actual NFL passer we can basically just use him as a RB means he has a high floor?

 

I know you have a thing for running QBs, but this is a bit far even for you.

 

Also, by this rationale both Corral and Howell have high floors too since their college rushing stats this season were very similar to what Willis put up (and against better competition). If that's the case and they all have high floors why not take a guy who's also a more polished passer in Corral and Howell?

Edited by mistertim
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1 hour ago, Conn said:


Is it that crazy? They’ve never played with most of the guys they lined up with and route running is very timing based, they were basically playing backyard football against some of the most talented guys out there. The “defense” was obviously schematically simple as well but that’s easier to do well with if everyone plays their role, especially since each team ran the ball less than a dozen times, they knew what was coming. It was basically 7-on-7 flag football with guys hucking up passes they wouldn’t in real games to guys they have no chemistry with

Maybe I don't pay that much attention, but I don't remember such a high number of interceptions in a Pro Bowl before. Six picks in one game is a lot.

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

...11. Washington Commanders

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

The Commanders have to upgrade at quarterback, and they'll likely be in the running for veterans via free agency or trade to provide competition for Taylor Heinicke. In this scenario, they look to the draft to try to find their long-term answer at the position. Pickett, who started 49 games in college, is ready to step in and play in Year 1. He took a massive leap in 2021, throwing 42 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.

Biggest needs: QB, OL, DB...

 

 

 

 

 

Pass at 11 but in play for me in the late first or early second round if available.

 

Exclusive footage of Pickett at last weeks Senior Bowl practice attempting to convince  a skeptical WFT scout that  hand size is irrelevant while the other burly handed qbs confidently look on...

 

 

 

 

image.png.c5567f96d027e6d2e08a92f82fa91715.png

Edited by CommanderInTheRye
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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

ESPN, new mock via Jason Reid

 

6. Carolina Panthers

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

After the Panthers played musical chairs with quarterbacks in 2021, they take a swing on the raw talent of Willis. The big QB decision they have is this: Do they go with the class' most physically gifted thrower in Willis or think about Kenny Pickett, who's more ready to play right away? Willis is a long-term project, so the challenging part for the Panthers is remaining patient and developing him considering the pressure on the coaching staff to win entering Year 3 for Matt Rhule. This could also be a spot to watch for a trade down, and Carolina -- which hasn't drafted an offensive lineman in Round 1 since Jeff Otah in 2008 -- could look to the O-line, too.

Biggest needs: QB, OL, WR

 

11. Washington Commanders

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

The Commanders have to upgrade at quarterback, and they'll likely be in the running for veterans via free agency or trade to provide competition for Taylor Heinicke. In this scenario, they look to the draft to try to find their long-term answer at the position. Pickett, who started 49 games in college, is ready to step in and play in Year 1. He took a massive leap in 2021, throwing 42 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.

Biggest needs: QB, OL, DB

 

18. New Orleans Saints

Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

Corral was the lone potential first-round quarterback who couldn't participate in the all-star circuit because he hasn't graduated from school, which means his performances next month at his pro day and the NFL combine will be crucial. There are still a wide range of possibilities in which he could be selected. He could make sense for the Saints, though, who might need to use the draft to find their 2022 starter because of their salary-cap issues. Drafting a young signal-caller would give them a cheaper option for five seasons. Corral is a quick processor who has the release to match. Praised for his leadership and magnetic personality, this is an ideal landing spot for him.

Biggest needs: QB, DB, WR

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina

One of the worst-kept secrets at the Senior Bowl was the Steelers' desire to draft a quarterback to replace Ben Roethlisberger. During the second day of practices, coach Mike Tomlin and general manager Kevin Colbert paced back and forth down the sideline in a downpour of rain getting an up-close view of prospects. Howell, who had 24 touchdown passes and nine picks in 2021, had several high moments at the Senior Bowl. The Steelers have shown in previous years that they aren't afraid to trade up to acquire a player they really like, which means they are a team to watch if they don't acquire a veteran signal-caller.

Biggest needs: QB, OL, CB

 

47. Indianapolis Colts

Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

Don't be surprised if the Colts take a quarterback with their first pick in this draft. General manager Chris Ballard was clearly not happy about Carson Wentz's finish to the season. The 6-foot-3 Ridder is polished in going through progressions -- he took a big step in 2021, leading the Bearcats to the College Football Playoff -- and he can execute in all areas of the field. He could be an appealing backup plan to Wentz, who isn't owed much guaranteed money on the rest of his contract.

Biggest needs: OT, WR, CB

 

64. Denver Broncos (via LAR)

Carson Strong, QB, Nevada

 

Who will play quarterback for the Broncos in 2022? Drew Lock enters the final season of his rookie deal, and Teddy Bridgewater is a free agent. If the Broncos go the draft route, Round 2 could have a few options. Strong will likely be on the board, if the medical reports for his knee check out. He has a strong arm, and he was given a lot of autonomy at the line of scrimmage for the Wolf Pack, which means he has experience with handling pro-level schemes. He threw 36 touchdown passes and eight interceptions while completing 70% of his passes last season.

Biggest needs: QB, EDGE, OT

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/33227214/nfl-mock-draft-2022-jordan-reid-new-two-round-predictions-top-64-picks-featuring-six-quarterbacks-senior-bowl-risers

 

Happy about Pickett but the rain at the Senior Bowl practice and reading that he fumbled the ball a few times and his passes were off that day are of concern to me now.  Re-thinking.  We will get to see more at his Pro Day but maybe it will be raining that day.  Don't want to say such things but do we know how he perfromed in messy, rainy weather.  I haven't been able to find a lot of info on this.  

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Ben Standig on with JP/BMitch now talking about that picture of Wilson and Allen, Sheehan's mention Wilson not apposed to it and Garafolo on Standig's podcast.  He reiterated unless Wilson forces his way out, he doesn't get it.

 

 

Edited by HigSkin
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