The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Fred Jones]

I just want to know how you evaluate what is between the ears.  I read all these people talk about how great this or that QB is at reading college defenses and they get to the NFL and they suck.

 

Purdy is the latest example of someone who CAN read NFL defenses, but was the last pick.  All the first round failures over the years.

 

Is this the 1983 draft or every single other year draft?  The odds are just not that good.

 

I just keep saying I hope they get it right, and yes, luck is involved.

[BMagic]

28 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

I read that that stat doesn't include scrambles.  If that is true, it is a useless stat.  If the QB scrambles away from pressure and makes a positive play, it doesn't count?  LOL.  Who comes up with stats like this?

I agree, that's why if that stat is counting sacks when he can't quite squeeze through a gap on a rushing attempt, then it's pointless. If it's because DEs can bring him down by merely grabbing his shoulder pads, then that's a different issue. Dane Brugler goes more in-depth on that.

 

In either case, he can definitely go through progressions quickly and has a clean release with crisp mechanics. I see the Lamar/Cunningham/Jalen Hurts type traits there.

 

I'm in the Maye camp because he's shown special things already without having clean mechanics, but that's what makes him more of a gamble on his upside. He cleans up his footwork/mechanics and he could be an perennial All-pro type player in the wide-open NFC. Depends on his work ethic.

 

That said, if GMAP, Quinn, and Kingsbury pass on him, I'll trust it's because they view his mechanical issues as being those they don't feel can be corrected through coaching or they see Daniels having the higher ceiling if the two. Kingsbury had the eye to see the raw talent in Mahomes and got him to go to Texas Tech. His insight into the process is invaluable.

Edited March 30 by BMagic

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, Conn said:

You are fundamentally wrong. Elite production at a young age in college is a huge predictor of future success in the NFL. The younger the breakout, the better. Even for players who then have a down year in comparison. 
 

Of course there are cases of players breaking out in their final years. But you have way more Kenny Pickett’s than Joe Burrows. There are exceptions to every rule though (and we tend to be able to name them off the top of our heads for a reason).
 

The same generally goes for players who have great rookie seasons, it portends that they have a higher chance at being great NFL players. Mac Jones did not have a great rookie season, never mind elite. He was fine. He was competent and didn’t hurt the team too much. He was a game manager. It’s a poor comparison for what we’re talking about. You do this a lot.

 

 1. Nobody ever said Mac Jones had an elite rookie season but lets not pretend league opinion wasn't that he had a very good rookie season.

 

Mark Daniels: Patriots' Mac Jones is one of the best rookie quarterbacks of all-time

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/sports/nfl/patriots/2022/01/03/new-england-patriots-mac-jones-one-of-the-best-rookie-quarterbacks-in-nfl-history/9074297002/

 

 

Mac Jones by the numbers: Patriots rookie quarterback on pace to rewrite record books in Year One

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/mac-jones-by-the-numbers-patriots-rookie-quarterback-on-pace-to-rewrite-record-books-in-year-one/

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/01/07/how-mac-jones-rookie-success-affects-future-qb-draft-evaluations-daily-cover

[actorguy1]

https://theathletic.com/5372805/2024/03/28/broncos-sean-payton-draft-qbs?source=user-shared-article

 

How Sean Payton and the Broncos are turning up the heat to evaluate QB prospects 

 

 

J.J. McCarthy didn’t have much time to revel in the afterglow of his performance at the University of Michigan’s pro day earlier this month, the one his college coach and now Los Angeles Chargers boss Jim Harbaugh called “the best I’ve ever seen a quarterback do at a pro day.”

 

That’s because Sean Payton had given McCarthy a significant pile of homework — and it was due the next day.

 

“We sent him a bunch of information,” Payton said at the NFL’s league meetings in Orlando, Fla., this week, “and made him throw all over again.”

As the Broncos evaluate quarterbacks ahead of this year’s NFL Draft, the squeeze Payton and the rest of Denver’s decision-makers put on prospects is a critical part of their process. Insight provided by quarterbacks who have sat in meetings with the coach — and coming from Payton himself — has painted a picture of a process designed to put players in uncomfortable positions. Payton wants to pry players off the autopilot path that can be easy to travel during the whirlwind draft process.

In other words, the coach wants to see how players handle it when he starts turning up the heat.

 

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, appearing on “The Herd” with host Colin Cowherd, described how Payton set the tone for a different kind of meeting.

 

“He has asked several questions. He’s dry and straight to the point,” Nix said. “One of the questions is, ‘Bo, what’s your shoe size?’ I told him I was a 12. He’s kind of sizing me up and says, ‘You should probably be wearing a 13 or something.’ I said, ‘Yeah, probably so. But that’s just what I wear. I wear a 12.’ He’s been fun to interact with and fun to get to know.”

Payton noted in Orlando that quarterbacks in the NFL “don’t always get to play in a clean pocket,” and his style in meetings could be viewed as his way of muddying the proverbial pocket and seeing how the incoming rookies respond. The Broncos, Payton said, will send quarterbacks a wealth of information at 5 p.m. the day before they meet — “more than we think they’re going to have a chance to study” — and then take careful notes about how they compartmentalize it all.

 

“How do they handle that? Where is the breaking point the next day? Is there one?” Payton said. “Do they handle it really well or do they really struggle? What time are they at the facility? Are they preparing? Are they early? All of it is interesting and fascinating.”

 

“It’s a big deal when you spend that much time with a player and not only watch them throw but put them through a test and just see how they come through,” Broncos general manager George Paton added. “It can really help.”

 

Payton said the quarterbacks he and the Broncos have met with have been well prepared and were “well coached in college relative to the game.” But he also wants to see how the prospects respond when they don’t know what’s coming. Another example occurred at the NFL Scouting Combine in February in Indianapolis when Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. walked into a meeting room with Payton and other Broncos staffers and was immediately put on the defensive.

“They were tough. They pulled up a lot of bad plays,” Penix said. “But it was good because at the next level, it’s hard. It’s hard to win, and I understand that. I felt like, in ways, he was probably trying to see how I reacted to those bad plays and take accountability and stuff like that. I’m always going to do that. I’m going to be honest about everything.”

Payton, who spent 16 seasons as a head coach in New Orleans and is entering his second season in that role with the Broncos, has plenty of experience with the quarterback evaluation process, but this year could be different from all the others. Payton never drafted a quarterback in the first round during his time with the Saints. He had no chance to do so last year because the Broncos did not have a first-round pick, having sent the one they acquired in a trade with the Miami Dolphins to New Orleans for the right to hire Payton.

Now, the Broncos hold the No. 12 pick and have a glaring need at quarterback after releasing veteran Russell Wilson earlier this month.

“It’s a race for information right now,” Paton said. “We don’t have a lot of time. … We’re all trying to gather it and try to make the best possible decision.”

The in-person meetings with quarterbacks are an important part of that process. The Broncos were set to meet Wednesday with LSU’s Heisman Trophy winner, Jayden Daniels, after the quarterback’s pro day, his agent told NFL Network. They have done the same with other top quarterback prospects, preparing for every scenario that could unfold in the draft.

The next step, Payton said, will be the team’s “final board meetings,” which begin Monday. That is where the team will bring in all of its scouts and begin setting up its big board of prospects heading into the draft. Like the interactions with the players, the final board meetings will aim to challenge those in the room. New to the mix this year is Cody Rager, the team’s new vice president of player personnel, who previously worked with Payton in New Orleans.

“You’re always looking to evolve. You don’t want to stay stagnant,” Paton said. “That’s why it was kind of cool to have Sean come in with his new ideas. We discussed our thoughts, philosophies, draft, what have you. He brought a lot of good ideas to the table, we both evolve and we kind of merged. Then you bring in new coaches, you bring in a guy like Cody Rager, who can help and help the process. I think every year after the draft, you should look in the mirror and see how we can improve. So we do that every year, but that was one of the reasons why we want to bring in Cody — to get some new ideas, a different lens.”

No decision for the Broncos in the coming weeks will be bigger than the one they make at quarterback. If the Broncos draft a player at that position with their first-round pick, it would be the first time they’ve done so since taking Paxton Lynch with the 26th pick in the 2016 draft. That selection turned out to be a massive mistake as Lynch started only four games with the Broncos in two seasons.

 

To ensure their next quarterback won’t fold under the intense pressure of being a first-round pick, the Broncos will continue turning up the heat in the pre-draft process.

 

“The process has evolved a little bit with analytics and different testing we are doing but it still comes down to the film evaluation, spending time with them, getting around them,” Paton said at the combine. “Can they learn it? What type of leader (are they)? The passion for the game? I mean, it’s a tough game … and the toughest job is to play quarterback.”

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

10 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

What is it that people find confusing here? 

Nobody is confused. It’s gonna be Maye. 😆

[Llevron]

I just saw this dude Drake Maye, with two humans hanging off of him, try to throw into double coverage while falling backwards. 
 

And he almost got it there lmao. What. 

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Nobody is confused. It’s gonna be Maye. 😆

 

Cool if you believe that. That has nothing to do with either point I posted. 

[DogofWar1]

IIRC the line on Mac Jones is that he had some major training wheels on for his rookie year and then when they took them off in year 2/3 he couldn't rise to the challenge.

 

That being said, early breakout years and rookie success are, absent deeper information, just correlations.

 

For Jones, something worth keeping in mind is he lost his rookie OC, then has had 2 different systems in 2 years.  Doesn't mean he'll suddenly be better if he can get stability for 3+ years, but I imagine continuity of system pairs very importantly with the rookie breakout stats.

Edited March 30 by DogofWar1

[CapsSkins]

Look what Mac Jones is doing to us.

[MartinC]

13 minutes ago, Fred Jones said:

I just want to know how you evaluate what is between the ears.  I read all these people talk about how great this or that QB is at reading college defenses and they get to the NFL and they suck.

 

Purdy is the latest example of someone who CAN read NFL defenses, but was the last pick.  All the first round failures over the years.

 

Is this the 1983 draft or every single other year draft?  The odds are just not that good.

 

I just keep saying I hope they get it right, and yes, luck is involved.

It’s really really hard.

 

Think about your own life and people you know and work with and how hard it is to really know what makes them tick and how/what they think when you first meet them. You only get to know that when you spend real time with them. In the context of drafting a QB you can talk to people who have been around them going back to kindergarten, but you wont know how someone in their early 20’s who has worked really hard to get to the NFL and been a poster child for work ethic is going to react to becoming a millionaire and all that comes with being an NFL big name.

 

Is getting to the NFL and the big contract their Everest? Or is being a great NFL QB and winning Championships once they get there their Everest? Wont know that until you get them in the building.

[DogofWar1]

1 minute ago, CapsSkins said:

Look what Mac Jones is doing to us.

mmmm mac

 

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, DogofWar1 said:

IIRC the line on Mac Jones is that he had some major training wheels on for his rookie year and then when they took them off in year 2/3 he couldn't rise to the challenge.

 

That being said, early breakout years and rookie success are, absent deeper information, just correlations.

 

I mean, thats fair and probably true but we don't need to rewrite history cause Mac Jones sucks now. Everyone was raving about his rookie season, even the much loved PFF folks  - I can link articles upon articles touting how it was "better than Brady's and Rodgers rookie seasons!" 

 

The NFL did a full mini movie on his rookie season...I am not making up how much hype and praise he got around the league

 

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

25 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

  

Maybe he did. TNC has lots of sources.🤔

 

 

 

"The pain, the pain, oh my, the pain!"

[illone]

11 minutes ago, MartinC said:

For sure. No argument.

😂

 

[Warhead36]

Jones was a game manager his rookie year that benefited from the league wide rep the Pats have. He was nothing special but people love "winners" and he had the rep of a winner.

 

His rookie year success is not the same argument as saying early predictor in college correlates well to NFL success. Its two totally different realms.

[Conn]

12 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

 1. Nobody ever said Mac Jones had an elite rookie season but lets not pretend league opinion wasn't that he had a very good rookie season.

 

Mark Daniels: Patriots' Mac Jones is one of the best rookie quarterbacks of all-time

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/sports/nfl/patriots/2022/01/03/new-england-patriots-mac-jones-one-of-the-best-rookie-quarterbacks-in-nfl-history/9074297002/

 

 

Mac Jones by the numbers: Patriots rookie quarterback on pace to rewrite record books in Year One

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/mac-jones-by-the-numbers-patriots-rookie-quarterback-on-pace-to-rewrite-record-books-in-year-one/

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/01/07/how-mac-jones-rookie-success-affects-future-qb-draft-evaluations-daily-cover

 

I’m not going down a dumb rabbit hole with you on a poor example that you introduced to the thread in the first place. What I said about Mac is correct. The point is that Mac’s rookie year production and subsequent drop-off as a player in the NFL as he didn’t develop is nothing like, and has nothing to do with, an early breakout college player like Maye putting up an elite first starting season in college and then having a relative decrease in production before getting drafted. 
 

You’re using your own made-up comparisons to conflate wildly different things that have nothing to do with each other, extrapolating that bad info into a larger point that is also incorrect…and then wasting people’s time digging down into the details of each incorrect minor point of the incorrect major point. I’m not getting lost in the weeds with you like that, it’s a classic marker of a poor debater or a troll. I’m just simply here to tell you that there are people who don’t interact with you every day in this thread who also think you’re wrong about things sometimes. It’s just not always worth the time for such a poor return on the time investment. 

[MartinC]

3 minutes ago, illone said:

😂

 

Not quite sure what the laugh is for. I’m agreeing you have to look beyond how a player is used and scout traits. 
 

When I look at JJ I just don’t see anything special in that regard. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t end up being the best QB in this draft, but I just don’t see anything like the ceiling with JJ you see with Williams, Maye and Daniel’s.

[CommanderInTheRye]

17 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

https://theathletic.com/5372805/2024/03/28/broncos-sean-payton-draft-qbs?source=user-shared-article

 

How Sean Payton and the Broncos are turning up the heat to evaluate QB prospects 

 

 

J.J. McCarthy didn’t have much time to revel in the afterglow of his performance at the University of Michigan’s pro day earlier this month, the one his college coach and now Los Angeles Chargers boss Jim Harbaugh called “the best I’ve ever seen a quarterback do at a pro day.”

 

That’s because Sean Payton had given McCarthy a significant pile of homework — and it was due the next day.

 

“We sent him a bunch of information,” Payton said at the NFL’s league meetings in Orlando, Fla., this week, “and made him throw all over again.”

As the Broncos evaluate quarterbacks ahead of this year’s NFL Draft, the squeeze Payton and the rest of Denver’s decision-makers put on prospects is a critical part of their process. Insight provided by quarterbacks who have sat in meetings with the coach — and coming from Payton himself — has painted a picture of a process designed to put players in uncomfortable positions. Payton wants to pry players off the autopilot path that can be easy to travel during the whirlwind draft process.

In other words, the coach wants to see how players handle it when he starts turning up the heat.

 

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, appearing on “The Herd” with host Colin Cowherd, described how Payton set the tone for a different kind of meeting.

 

“He has asked several questions. He’s dry and straight to the point,” Nix said. “One of the questions is, ‘Bo, what’s your shoe size?’ I told him I was a 12. He’s kind of sizing me up and says, ‘You should probably be wearing a 13 or something.’ I said, ‘Yeah, probably so. But that’s just what I wear. I wear a 12.’ He’s been fun to interact with and fun to get to know.”

Payton noted in Orlando that quarterbacks in the NFL “don’t always get to play in a clean pocket,” and his style in meetings could be viewed as his way of muddying the proverbial pocket and seeing how the incoming rookies respond. The Broncos, Payton said, will send quarterbacks a wealth of information at 5 p.m. the day before they meet — “more than we think they’re going to have a chance to study” — and then take careful notes about how they compartmentalize it all.

 

“How do they handle that? Where is the breaking point the next day? Is there one?” Payton said. “Do they handle it really well or do they really struggle? What time are they at the facility? Are they preparing? Are they early? All of it is interesting and fascinating.”

 

“It’s a big deal when you spend that much time with a player and not only watch them throw but put them through a test and just see how they come through,” Broncos general manager George Paton added. “It can really help.”

 

Payton said the quarterbacks he and the Broncos have met with have been well prepared and were “well coached in college relative to the game.” But he also wants to see how the prospects respond when they don’t know what’s coming. Another example occurred at the NFL Scouting Combine in February in Indianapolis when Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. walked into a meeting room with Payton and other Broncos staffers and was immediately put on the defensive.

“They were tough. They pulled up a lot of bad plays,” Penix said. “But it was good because at the next level, it’s hard. It’s hard to win, and I understand that. I felt like, in ways, he was probably trying to see how I reacted to those bad plays and take accountability and stuff like that. I’m always going to do that. I’m going to be honest about everything.”

Payton, who spent 16 seasons as a head coach in New Orleans and is entering his second season in that role with the Broncos, has plenty of experience with the quarterback evaluation process, but this year could be different from all the others. Payton never drafted a quarterback in the first round during his time with the Saints. He had no chance to do so last year because the Broncos did not have a first-round pick, having sent the one they acquired in a trade with the Miami Dolphins to New Orleans for the right to hire Payton.

Now, the Broncos hold the No. 12 pick and have a glaring need at quarterback after releasing veteran Russell Wilson earlier this month.

“It’s a race for information right now,” Paton said. “We don’t have a lot of time. … We’re all trying to gather it and try to make the best possible decision.”

The in-person meetings with quarterbacks are an important part of that process. The Broncos were set to meet Wednesday with LSU’s Heisman Trophy winner, Jayden Daniels, after the quarterback’s pro day, his agent told NFL Network. They have done the same with other top quarterback prospects, preparing for every scenario that could unfold in the draft.

The next step, Payton said, will be the team’s “final board meetings,” which begin Monday. That is where the team will bring in all of its scouts and begin setting up its big board of prospects heading into the draft. Like the interactions with the players, the final board meetings will aim to challenge those in the room. New to the mix this year is Cody Rager, the team’s new vice president of player personnel, who previously worked with Payton in New Orleans.

“You’re always looking to evolve. You don’t want to stay stagnant,” Paton said. “That’s why it was kind of cool to have Sean come in with his new ideas. We discussed our thoughts, philosophies, draft, what have you. He brought a lot of good ideas to the table, we both evolve and we kind of merged. Then you bring in new coaches, you bring in a guy like Cody Rager, who can help and help the process. I think every year after the draft, you should look in the mirror and see how we can improve. So we do that every year, but that was one of the reasons why we want to bring in Cody — to get some new ideas, a different lens.”

No decision for the Broncos in the coming weeks will be bigger than the one they make at quarterback. If the Broncos draft a player at that position with their first-round pick, it would be the first time they’ve done so since taking Paxton Lynch with the 26th pick in the 2016 draft. That selection turned out to be a massive mistake as Lynch started only four games with the Broncos in two seasons.

 

To ensure their next quarterback won’t fold under the intense pressure of being a first-round pick, the Broncos will continue turning up the heat in the pre-draft process.

 

“The process has evolved a little bit with analytics and different testing we are doing but it still comes down to the film evaluation, spending time with them, getting around them,” Paton said at the combine. “Can they learn it? What type of leader (are they)? The passion for the game? I mean, it’s a tough game … and the toughest job is to play quarterback.”

 

 

First thanks for posting the aarticle, I love to read stuff like this.

 

This is not a criticism, but I do have a request. Sometimes when we copy and paste a long article for some reason multiple paragraphs merge together creating a long block of uninterrupted text.

 

For people like myself with vision issues it makes it very difficult to read.

 

If it's not too much of a hassle it would certainly be appreciated if after posting an article you edited the long areas back into their original paragraphs. 🙂

[redskinss]

10 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Cool if you believe that. That has nothing to do with either point I posted. 

 

Several people have refuted the points you posted and you have just deflected so sarcasm becomes the only worthwhile response.

 

If you want to die on the hill that your point is that Fields was not an elite runner in college you can keep doing that and it's not totally without merit but because he's now a proven elite runner in the nfl it makes using his college stats for comp purposes basically useless. 

 

 

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

When I look at JJ I just don’t see anything special in that regard. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t end up being the best QB in this draft, but I just don’t see anything like the ceiling with JJ you see with Williams, Maye and Daniel’s.

Yep that's exactly what I see. He's the perfect late 1st round pick, or early to mid 2nd ish to be honest. I don't see how you can take him number 2 overall in a class with quite a few other more uber talented prospects.

[ThatNFLChick]

13 minutes ago, Conn said:

 

I’m not going down a dumb rabbit hole with you on a poor example that you introduced to the thread in the first place. What I said about Mac is correct. The point is that Mac’s rookie year production and subsequent drop-off as a player in the NFL as he didn’t develop is nothing like, and has nothing to do with, an early breakout college player like Maye putting up an elite first starting season in college and then having a relative decrease in production before getting drafted. 
 

You’re using your own made-up comparisons to conflate wildly different things that have nothing to do with each other, extrapolating that bad info into a larger point that is also incorrect…and then wasting people’s time digging down into the details of each incorrect minor point of the incorrect major point. I’m not getting lost in the weeds with you like that, it’s a classic marker of a poor debater or a troll. I’m just simply here to tell you that there are people who don’t interact with you every day in this thread who also think you’re wrong about things sometimes. It’s just not always worth the time for such a poor return on the time investment. 

 

I'm sorry what would you like me to do with the bolded? People can think I'm wrong, that is totally within their right, just as I can think they are. I don't actually pay that close attention to who interacts with whom on here (nor do I care enough to pay attention that closely to be honest).

 

As for the rest of it, nobody said early breakouts in college means nothing. Where was that said? In what post? I said the league puts more weight into the most recent season played than anything else and this is a "what have you done for me lately" league. Does that mean the first season of play doesn't count at all? Well lets hope not since Daniels also was touted everywhere for his rookie season at ASU. The point is we have seen several prospects fall and rise because of their final season of playing college ball - most recently with Howell and Burrow on the opposite end of the spectrum. 

 

9 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

Several people have refuted the points you posted and you have just deflected so sarcasm becomes the only worthwhile response.

 

If you want to die on the hill that your point is that Fields was not an elite runner in college you can keep doing that and it's not totally without merit but because he's now a proven elite runner in the nfl it makes using his college stats for comp purposes basically useless. 

 

 

 

What? The original discussion was about Fields vs Daniels in college. Why is what he has done in the NFL even relevant when they were being discussed as prospects? 

Edited March 30 by ThatNFLChick

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, BMagic said:

I'm sure Eugene Shen is crunching all the relevant numbers. The interviews will matter a ton. You need to know if these were a result of LSU's scheme and if like Keim suggests, some of the sacks are a result of Jayden not quite squeezing through running lanes and it results as a "sack"

 

A 24% pressure to sack ratio is unplayable in the NFL, would absolutely have to be mitigated. If he can maintain a higher playing weight, he'll be able to brush off more sack attempts as well.

Those numbers are pretty sobering. One thing I noticed is Burrow was right there with him in middle of field attempt percentage. Leads me to believe it is a scheme thing. At least that one stat anyways.

[bonhommelemec]

https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2024/03/30/washington-commanders-adviser-rick-spielman-thinks-drake-maye-will-go-before-jayden-daniels-2024-nfl-draft/

 

This article might have been posted already. 

 

Spielman's take is interesting....

[Llevron]

If y’all have the time y’all should watch Kurt Warners breakdowns in these guys plays. I won’t change any minds if you already have a dog in the race, but he does a good job breaking down the plays if you are like me and don’t understand any of the stuff on your own. I think he helps when he points out what a defense wants to do on play and then shows it. 
 

He is also not overly positive or negative of either of them. Breaks down two games on each of them. One bad one and then a good one. Then measures what you can take away from both. 

[Going Commando]

53 minutes ago, Llevron said:

What do you think about that Chase Daniel film I posted a few pages back? Nothing in that cut up makes him look how you describe him and that confuses me. Arm talent way more than average. He sees the field and moves well in the pocket. Even consistently going through progressions. I don’t see what you see. Can you help me with that? 

 

Chase Daniel is a flat out bad analyst.  It makes sense that he would like Jayden and miss all of his flaws because he's spent the last six months growing increasingly shrill in his love for Justin Fields.  The quick answer is that you can't rely on these kinds of decontextualized and incomplete videos from analysts to form your takes.  The format where they highlight and discuss just a handful of plays (necessary for producing watchable content) is bad at showing tendencies and playing styles.  Last year I got lazy and didn't watch as many games or cut ups and started relying on these kinds of analysts to form takes, and that's how I ended up convinced Tyree Wilson was the next Willie McGinest despite my gut reaction from watching him live and in a few cut ups being that he was nothing special.  The hit rate for these analysts isn't great, even when they are really knowledgeable and impressive at overanalyzing film, so you might as well form your own raw takes.  Their content can be good for first learning what to watch for, but you have to go further than they do.

 

In order to identify a player's style/tendencies, you have to watch a ton of them and see how they play the game at an instinctive level.  What do they do as a routine, and what do they default to when the script fails or they face duress?  The only way I can present evidence of Jayden's tendencies and style at a standard that would be convincing is to chart his games.  That's like 15-20 hours of work just for this season alone, I'm not doing that, and the product wouldn't be readable content anyway.  And after you watch enough players and games, you don't really have to do that any more to form reliable gestalts.  But here are some keys to look for when you want to analyze a player's vision/processing, awareness, and arm talent.  And remember, you are judging these by an NFL standard.  Keeping that NFL standard in mind is tricky, but critical for assessing translation. 

 

If you want to assess a QB's vision or processing, you need to look for how often he gets stuck on reads.  Does he hesitate to make decisions or is he decisive and consistently throws with anticipation?  Does he often find receivers who uncover late?  Does he make that process look easy and natural?  Does he look comfortable creating from the pocket?  Does he make throws all over the field?

 

Pocket feel/awareness: does he read pressure well?  Can he do it and adjust his drop without looking at the rush?  Does he generally maintain space to throw.  Does he play with urgency and an accurate mental clock?  When he takes off does he navigate trash well?  Does he run into blocks or tackles?

 

Arm talent: remember, you're judging this by an NFL standard.  An average NFL arm can throw it deep and stick deep outs on a rope.  Above average means doing special things, like off balance downfield throws to the field-side hash.  Driving throws when you don't have space to step into them.  Driving second and third level throws with loft to clear middle zone defenders while maintaining velocity/rotation.  Throwing the ball downfield without "loading up" for it.  Throwing deep balls late and without having to put a ton of air under them.