The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Are both top two QBs already gone? Also would need to gauge the potential trade up market. I love Harrison but if we can pull off a reverse RG3 and load up the new regime with a bunch of assets to rebuild with I'd have to think about it.

If both QBs are gone and they feel they can get another player they want a little later, I 100% bet they'll trade down and stockpile picks. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Professor_Nutter_Butter

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

If both QBs are gone and they feel they can get another player they want a little later, I 100% bet they'll trade down and stockpile picks. 

I don't like trading down for the sake of trading down and passing up on blue chip talent. But if we get some crazy offer and there are no legit blue chippers at our spot then sure. But at the 4th overall pick, there will definitely be some elite talent we'd be passing up on.

 

Quality > quantity. We need legit game breaking star power talent.

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't like trading down for the sake of trading down and passing up on blue chip talent. But if we get some crazy offer and there are no legit blue chippers at our spot then sure. But at the 4th overall pick, there will definitely be some elite talent we'd be passing up on.

 

Quality > quantity. We need legit game breaking star power talent.

No disagreements. I just think Harris and Co. will go in with the mindset that there are several holes to fill.

[MartinC]

29 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Question for everyone, would you trade the better 3rd rounder to move up 1 spot for Harrison? (From #4 to #3)

I probably would. He's the best player in the draft (if you take the QB premium out of the equation).

[Skinsinparadise]

33 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

With the focus almost predictably now turned to complaining about our players it needs to be said again. Our coaching has been abysmal.   EB predictably looked like a rookie OC but did get some things done with an elite crap OL via Sam's strengths so he gets a small pass on some of his shortcomings. OCs used to always come across as stubborn to me but the younger generation of OCs have changed, but EB seems old school stubborn.  Gruden chiming in that its hard to even watch game tape of the defense has me thinking Ron has been trying to get fired. Jack before him. Ron allowing Cheeseman to remain employed?? Really? 100% proof of a coach that doesn't care about his job if Quan on Hill wasn't proof enough. The Dolphins even knew Hill would face man. Ron is checked out.

 

Because of those clowns the players look like damned fools running around in a failed scheme run by coaches that clearly don't adjust, on either side of the ball. I pity the fool being fooled.

 

Agree the coaching has been abysmal. Judging by the posts I've read for months here, the coaches have been ripped plenty including on this thread.  We have muliple threads ripping the coaching.

 

I do think its a mediocre to slightly less than that roster that looks worse than that because of bad coaching and Ron coming off checked out.  But the sum of its parts is less than its whole because of the roster allocation where Ron IMO did a piss poor job of balancing all the moving parts and that was culminated in a crap off season that some of us highlighted in real time.

 

I think Ron's coaching AND GM work were both massive faliures this year.  And he entered this off season with some odd bravado-entitlement vibes that IMO he never earned.  This season crashing feels like karma with some benefit of hindsight.

56 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

While I dont disagree with your central point about us lacking really elite level skill positions players who can change games, its helps teams like the Dolphins get multiple guys wide open when they face dumb defensive calls and matchups. Put a rookie safety on Terry with no deep help and Terry will run past him - he might not be 4 yards open like Hill was, but he'd have plenty of separation. 

 

The one time the Dolphins allowed Samuels to get matched up on a 'backer in man Samuels ran past him and Sam hit him on wheel for an explosive. Part of what we see with other teams when they play us is a function of our defensive dysfunction as much as their superior skill level.

 

But bottom line when you watch elite teams like the Eagles and 49ers play you do see the gulf in talent AND COACHING that we currently have. 

 

No doubt.  Bad coaching and lack of elite talent.  I see the incompetence on the coaching side and the front office as one of the same.  They are both problems.  They are both run by the same dude who IMO isn't that good at his job.  Either job.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[philibusters]

36 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Question for everyone, would you trade the better 3rd rounder to move up 1 spot for Harrison? (From #4 to #3)

 

Yeah I would do it without an y hesitation.  That said, I suspect the price would be higher.  Probably at least one of our second rounders, but in that hypo of a third rounder, I give it an enthusiastic yes.

[pcbothwel]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

Now this brings me to my next point (I think Maye and Williams have a few very negative traits, but mostly really good prospects... Maye disappears in big moments, Williams accuracy can be erratic at times and throws a lot of high percentage passes).

 

But that's not the point. Assuming those two aren't on the board, and they are actually who I believe the two best prospects are at this juncture... Jayden Daniels is the next hurdle. Is he the next guy? Is he a franchise caliber guy? And why?

 

 

He has been just okay throughout his collegiate career. His low turnover numbers are high quality and consistent aside from one season. I think that is something that translates a bit so that's a major positive. He has a good arm and he is a hell of an athlete. Good height. He is 205, despite the rail thin lean look, so he's not small. 

 

He has a ton of time in the pocket at LSU and his running style will not translate. He takes too many hits and his build doesn't suggest that is a great strategy for him moving forward. But that escapability will be used and coveted at the next level. 

 

He has certainly improved his ability to read a defense and get the ball out. But again, his frame isn't a great frame for NFL purposes. But it's not awful. He needs to change the way he plays a bit. He needs to get the ball out faster.

 

He is a + athlete, + arm, + escapability, - time to throw, - run decisions and a middle of the road field reader.

 

Sounds a lot like Sam Howell, though I think Daniels has the athleticism edge and the "size" edge RE: height.

 

I think Howell has a better arm and NFL frame.

 

So then, in my eyes, the question is: Is Daniels a big enough upgrade over Howell to take at 4/5/6?

 

I'd say no.

 

Is Daniels a big enough upgrade to take over Howell in the second round? I'd say probably at that point. 

 

If we were picking in the 10-15 slot I'd certainly have more to think about as well.

 

But as it stands, I don't think he is a good enough prospect to take over Harrison Jr, Alt, Fashanu, Verse, Kool Aid, etc.

 

And I wouldn't take the latter two over Fashanu or Alt and I'd have to think long and hard about taking Harrison over them, though I think I would.

 

That's where I am. 

 

Thanks for bringing up the Daniels vs Howell Comp... While I agree about projecting tools, can we all step back for a second.

Daniels is 3 months younger than Howell. 

Can you imagine the production Sam Howell today would put up at his age today with the LSU supporting cast?!?

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, skinsmania123 said:

 

 

The SB of 2020 was between the Chiefs and Niners. And the Chiefs won 31-20, overcoming a 10- point deficit.  I actually think the Chiefs had a decent O line in 2020. 
 

 

I may be getting the Superbowls mixed up because I tend to associate the Superbowl with the season rather than the year the game is actually played in (for example I will think of this upcoming Superbowl as the Superbowl for the 2023 season).  There was one Superbowl where the Chiefs were decimated by injuries on the O-Line but managed to get the Superbowl.

 

My point was that elite QB can give you good play behind a bad line but it won't be consistent.  Because they give you good play by making plays outside of structure and there is a high variability to that.   Elite QB's will give you consistent good play with a good O-Line and will give you inconsistent good play behind a bad line.  In terms of the Superbowl I am thinking of that the Chiefs lost here is the quote (but one of the major storylines leading up to the Superbowl was how bad their O-Line situation was).,..

 

Mahomes spent the game scrambling wildly from the Bucs’ pressure behind an offensive line that was missing four starters — right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, who opted out before the season, along with left guard Kelechi Osemele, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and left tackle Eric Fisher, who were lost to injuries.

[skinsmania123]

52 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

With the focus almost predictably now turned to complaining about our players it needs to be said again. Our coaching has been abysmal.   EB predictably looked like a rookie OC but did get some things done with an elite crap OL via Sam's strengths so he gets a small pass on some of his shortcomings. OCs used to always come across as stubborn to me but the younger generation of OCs have changed, but EB seems old school stubborn.  Gruden chiming in that its hard to even watch game tape of the defense has me thinking Ron has been trying to get fired. Jack before him. Ron allowing Cheeseman to remain employed?? Really? 100% proof of a coach that doesn't care about his job if Quan on Hill wasn't proof enough. The Dolphins even knew Hill would face man. Ron is checked out.

 

Because of those clowns the players look like damned fools running around in a failed scheme run by coaches that clearly don't adjust, on either side of the ball. I pity the fool being fooled.

Is Ron, as an ex-player coach, loyal to the point of stupidity or is he stubborn? I think it is combination of both. I used to think it was just loyalty until his "send me my SB ring comment" cause that meant he stubbornly thought he had a team that could get to the SB AND that he had the coaches to do it. That is so egoic.  And his assessment of his team was 100% inaccurate.  And as the GM he picked that putrid secondary.  @RandyHoltI do not think he is trying to get fired. His comments until recently is that he thought this team was going to be special, just give it time. 

 

But you are right the coaching has been abysmal. And EB signed off on that "elite crap OL" - so I am not sure I give him a pass on anything. And he has been throw, throw, throw all season, and I just have to wonder with the fall off in production with both Terry and Jahan, are his schemes part of the problem?  I am 100% okay with moving on from EB. Let him go to the Bears, or somewhere else.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Typically, a big part of what makes an OC a hot commodity is proof of developing game plans that create easy throws for their QB and regularly schemes guys open.  Aside from a two week stretch mid-season, EB has done neither of those things.  I fail to see what would be alluring about bringing him in as either a head coach or OC anywhere else.  

[skinsmania123]

11 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Typically, a big part of what makes an OC a hot commodity is proof of developing game plans that create easy throws for their QB and regularly schemes guys open.  Aside from a two week stretch mid-season, EB has done neither of those things.  I fail to see what would be alluring about bringing him in as either a head coach or OC anywhere else.  

I believe he will get another gig. Maybe even as a HC. I think most coordinators that have been here, at least historically, have gotten a pass, just based upon the reputation of Washington as a dumpster fire.  Plus, there is a perception out there that he helped with the success of Kansas City, and both Mahomes and Reid vouched for him. But if you watch the Netflix docuseries Quarterback, it is apparent he did nothing but hold the play card on the bench. 

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, dunfer said:

When i call rob our greatest mistake its referring to investing so much future capital in a single pick. You cant do that because as everyone says its a roll of the dice. If we were sitting at pick 2 back then and took him it wouldnt have set us back like it did.

Moral of the story is dont break the bank to move up in the draft because nobody is a slam dunk....even the slam dunk in front of Robert decided to quit playing

I'm the opposite. I'm all for moving up, for a franchise QB prospect, because of the distortive power of hitting on the position. If you miss, it tends to be at a scale where you will be able to pick again near the top of a draft to address the position again. The position is simply too valuable and too sort of 10x in terms of effect to not be worth the cost of trade up. The addendum to that is that if teams picking #1 or #2 or whatever and need a QB, it's immaterial, the Bengals arent moving off Burrow in 2020, the Jags arent off Lawrence in '21 etc (though I'd still try to blow their ----s off in both instances). 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

8 minutes ago, skinsmania123 said:

I believe he will get another gig. Maybe even as a HC. I think most coordinators that have been here, at least historically, have gotten a pass, just based upon the reputation of Washington as a dumpster fire.  Plus, there is a perception out there that he helped with the success of Kansas City, and both Mahomes and Reid vouched for him. But if you watch the Netflix docuseries Quarterback, it is apparent he did nothing but hold the play card on the bench. 

Maybe a team known for making bad hires like Chicago will hire him.  🍿 

[The Consigliere]

14 hours ago, dunfer said:

When i call rob our greatest mistake its referring to investing so much future capital in a single pick. You cant do that because as everyone says its a roll of the dice. If we were sitting at pick 2 back then and took him it wouldnt have set us back like it did.

Moral of the story is dont break the bank to move up in the draft because nobody is a slam dunk....even the slam dunk in front of Robert decided to quit playing

I should add one other detail. #1 again, I 100% disagree, I don't view it as a mistake, I view it as essential to do whats necessary to get the QB, however you can get them, including paying through the nose. #2 often not mentioned is that the Rams themselved gained little from the trade because the draft classes the picks were from were weak, not especially impressive drafts either. '13 was terrible at the top, and oddly better in a lot of ways in the middle. Trufant was a good player picked at our slot, but if you look around it, there are a litany of busts. After RGIII's injury, the '13 season was a disaster leading to our pick being #2, but again, that pick was a bust and 4 of the top 8 picks in that class were busts. Overall, it was a draft that was strong at WR, but erratic elsewhere.

 

All of those are details though, and while you can know a little bit about the class the following year, its harder to project two years out. Maybe we're smart in '14, and take one of the early hits: Mack, Matthews, Evans, Barr, but knowing the redskins, we wouldn't have.

 

Regardless it doesn't change my point of view. TRADE UP for QB's. Nothing else generally speaking, unless its a tiny tier breaking move, we all know the studies saying more bullets is better than trading up after all, but still, QB is largely the only thing you should trade up for unless the cost is tiny and a tier break is involved. 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree.  For me it's not so much about what the masses say.  It's about being pulled into a debate that's a waste of time where I am arguing against a point that I never made.    And specific to Howell, I admit i am a bit prickly when someone accuses me of not liking the dude when I've said 15 million times on this same thread that i do like him and explained why a zillion times.   

 

People are in corners about him, you can see the weirdness by the posts you get after his best games, and the posts you see after his worst in the blowouts. People are swinging back and forth radically beyond just a handful that had an opinion and havent moved since (he aint it, or he is it). You and I and some others, the crying Jordan dude, a few others, are moved a bit by the overall performances, but its mostly movement due to to overall picture revealed by more sample size. WHich is, for now anyway, a mostly bottom 1/3 QB, with upside if the team around him wasn't a ---- show. My view on that hasn't really changed other than that I think the floor is higher than I once thought (because even his worst performances have shown a basically competent QB at play, this isn't a disaster like Zach Wilson or his backup who literally can't move the team downfield, even with All Pro talent at WR and RB, Howell moves the team down field with ---- receiving play, JAG level athleticism at RB, and a bottom of the league level OL). he is not the Giants QB's, the Bears QB's, the Jets, Pats QB's etc. At bare minimum, you can run an adequate offense with him.

 

The question is ceiling, and likely production level w/competence around him. I tend to think the ceiling is around 8th-12th, and likely area of production is more 12th-16th. A better Carr basically, but I'm not sure.

The question is: do you think he can reach the ceiling or high end of expectations or not? If he can. You can win with that, if you can't, nothing is long term sustainable with him. We don't know the answer to that question which is why both you and I are open to using huge draft capital on a QB. Knowing that answer is critical, and betting on a prospect is necessary when you don't have it. But Jayden scares me so I'm disinclined (the age thing is a huge concern btw). 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

This is the crux of the conversation for me. It’s not that I’m married to the idea of Howell (though I still think higher of him than many do) it’s that it doesn’t matter who the QB is with our current OL situation. 
 

That needs to be sorted. And even if you don’t use our one for that… it has to be sorted. And if you’re going to use our one, which I believe will be 3 or 4, on a non OL, and we have our pick of the board outside Williams and Maye who might be off the board… why the heck wouldn’t you use it on Harrison if available? If Harrison is gone and we are 3, I’d argue a small trade back with Maye or Williams on the board would net us a fortune for a rebuilding team. 
 

And that trade back could even still land us in a situation where we can get a QB and OL in the first, if you prefer that route. 
 

This is about asset management to me… and improving the roster the most. I just don’t think a QB does that in a vacuum. 
 

Now, if we somehow trade for 3 OL and we’re good there and want the QB… maybe that’s the path. I think people are giving up on Howell too fast but if we have smart people in charge and they make the move I’ll hope for the best.

I don't disagree with the "solid" classification. All QB's need competent OL's to be successful, they can get by with a slightly below average line, and in fact multiple super bowl winners had average or below average lines the past two decades. So I disagree w/the cherry picked examples, if you actually look at the teams that were consistently winning throughout this century some had elite OL's, some had good, and a decent amount had average, and I believe there were at least 1 or 2 that had below average (like 17th-21st caliber grades) at least one of their quality years. 

 

Now, that doesn't change the facts on the gorund for us because our OL sucks and it also has no depth to speak of. So it has to be addressed period, not only the starters bottom quartile, to bottom 15-20% in the league, but our reserves can't beat out those guys either, not great. So even if we had a stud QB, it's true, they'd get nowhere, and we'd actively harm their chances of playing like a stud or developing into a stud. So we have to add OL's in this draft, next years draft and FA. We need multiple new starters and a pile of developmental guys to replace the garbage we have backing the poor OL up. 

 

I'd still consider trading up for a QB, but I'm also okay with the idea of selecting an OL with our 1st and a 2nd or 3rd, but we really need to nail down what we think Howell is long term, before we make such a decision, because if his ceiling is 10th-15th, and the expectation is 15th-20th, that wont be good enough, quality OL or not. He needs to be a guy where the expectation is league average or a little above, and the ceiling is even better, if it aint, it doesn't matter what OL we roll out. The one thing those QB's are that that guy mentioned was superlative talents, sure having great OL's helped, but if you switch out Manning for Leaf, or Brady for fellow 2000 draftee Gio Carmazzi, all those QB's still suck. It's still a QB's league, period. You get the OL to insure they can make it, rather than pretend the OL will help them become something better than they inherently are. 

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I don't disagree with the "solid" classification. All QB's need competent OL's to be successful, they can get by with a slightly below average line, and in fact multiple super bowl winners had average or below average lines the past two decades. So I disagree w/the cherry picked examples, if you actually look at the teams that were consistently winning throughout this century some had elite OL's, some had good, and a decent amount had average, and I believe there were at least 1 or 2 that had below average (like 17th-21st caliber grades) at least one of their quality years. 

 

Now, that doesn't change the facts on the gorund for us because our OL sucks and it also has no depth to speak of. So it has to be addressed period, not only the starters bottom quartile, to bottom 15-20% in the league, but our reserves can't beat out those guys either, not great. So even if we had a stud QB, it's true, they'd get nowhere, and we'd actively harm their chances of playing like a stud or developing into a stud. So we have to add OL's in this draft, next years draft and FA. We need multiple new starters and a pile of developmental guys to replace the garbage we have backing the poor OL up. 

 

I'd still consider trading up for a QB, but I'm also okay with the idea of selecting an OL with our 1st and a 2nd or 3rd, but we really need to nail down what we think Howell is long term, before we make such a decision, because if his ceiling is 10th-15th, and the expectation is 15th-20th, that wont be good enough, quality OL or not. He needs to be a guy where the expectation is league average or a little above, and the ceiling is even better, if it aint, it doesn't matter what OL we roll out. The one thing those QB's are that that guy mentioned was superlative talents, sure having great OL's helped, but if you switch out Manning for Leaf, or Brady for fellow 2000 draftee Gio Carmazzi, all those QB's still suck. It's still a QB's league, period. You get the OL to insure they can make it, rather than pretend the OL will help them become something better than they inherently are. 

What cherry picked examples do you not agree with that I gave?

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Pittman was an old draft crush of mine, if I recall ditto you.  Actually Terry was a draft crush, too for me back then.  So it would be an all timer for me.  

 

The Eagles couldn't handle SF with all of their weapons.  That team doesn't stop loading their team -- they have Kittle, Deebo, yet draft Aiyuk, trade for McCaffrey.  They have all those rock stars who major in YAC.   

 

I recall watching various LSU players one draft season but couldn't keepo my eyes off of Ja'marr Chase.  He was every bit his hype, he was unstoppable and couldn't be stopped.  And that was a year before he came out.  Same experience watching Ohio State, yet couldn't keep my eyes off of Marvin Harrison -- sick talent, even sicker than Jamar.

 

If we are going to compete with the big boys we want IMO at least a player or two that teams have to game plan mightly to stop.  According to the Dolphins at least we don't have a single player like that.  It's a dynamic that must change IMO if we want a trophy.   

My only concern with Pittman is he's already close to the max of his prime. He'll be 27 next year. You're buying the last two or so years of his prime and then his decline. On the other hand, he is a lot like AFC Amon Ra, but because his quarterbacking has been comically inept, Rivers, and Wentz retirement tours, backups, and a smidgeon of Richardson, people don't realize how good he is. Kind of like Allen Robinson during his prime. 

 

He's very good, he's only an above average athlete for the position though, and the sense I get is we want size and athleticism at the position, and he isn't giving us both, just size. But he'd be an improvement on what we have, without question. 

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The question is: do you think he can reach the ceiling or high end of expectations or not? If he can. You can win with that, if you can't, nothing is long term sustainable with him. We don't know the answer to that question which is why both you and I are open to using huge draft capital on a QB. Knowing that answer is critical, and betting on a prospect is necessary when you don't have it. But Jayden scares me so I'm disinclined (the age thing is a huge concern btw). 

 

That is the operative question no doubt.  And if I am Josh Harris, I am depending on of course the GM to make his best guess on this question.  One cool advantage he will have is you can ask this question to a number of top name potential GMs interviewing for the spot.  No way I'd guess they are interviewing for this job without putting some serious time and study into this very question.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

I said before the season I expected an exciting Winston-esque season from Sam. 5,000 yards in the air, 500 on the ground and about 30/30 TD/INT and that's pretty close to coming out correct.

[Conn]

47 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

That is the operative question no doubt.  And if I am Josh Harris, I am depending on of course the GM to make his best guess on this question.  One cool advantage he will have is you can ask this question to a number of top name potential GMs interviewing for the spot.  No way I'd guess they are interviewing for this job without putting some serious time and study into this very question.

This is what people are missing when they try to connect the dots to GM’s they think Harris (and Shen) already has a line to as if the decision is already being made. I think Harris is going to cast a wide net and get input from multiple coveted candidates. What assistant evaluators they’d want to bring along, how they see the roster, how they’d move forward with it, what HC candidates (and other staff) they are connected to and interested in working with, their philosophy for FA with a ton of cap room, their philosophy for the draft in general but also in relation to this roster and organizational rebuild. 
 

There’s a ton to be gained from interviewing at least 5-6 of the NFL’s smartest, most coveted GM candidates rather than having “the guy” in mind based on preexisting relationships. I look forward to watching it all play out.

[PlayAction]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

we really need to nail down what we think Howell is long term, before we make such a decision, because if his ceiling is 10th-15th, and the expectation is 15th-20th, that wont be good enough, quality OL or not. He needs to be a guy where the expectation is league average or a little above, and the ceiling is even better, if it aint, it doesn't matter what OL we roll out.  

 

If your QB is being hit, hurried, and sacked repeatedly all season long, how do you really know his potential to that level of specificity?  

[PlayAction]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't like trading down for the sake of trading down and passing up on blue chip talent. But if we get some crazy offer and there are no legit blue chippers at our spot then sure. But at the 4th overall pick, there will definitely be some elite talent we'd be passing up on.

 

Quality > quantity. We need legit game breaking star power talent.

 

I wouldn't trade down to the second round but there is blue chip talent outside the top 5 in most first round drafts.  Dropping from 4 to 7 could net an additional 2nd round pick (low) or high 3rd round pick.  You drop a couple spots and get a "free" Guard or Right Tackle.  It all depends on the positional depth in the 2024 draft and we won't know that for a while. 

[MassSkinsFan]

Given the dog**** excuse for an OL I’m consistently amazed at how productive Howell can be. 
 

A weak link or two in OL is bad but not insurmountable. A good QB can still make that work. When then entire unit is the weakest link, it’s a special QB that can still be productive despite being under constant pressure. 
 

Having an OL as weak as ours limits what the entire offense can do and makes it much more predictable. 
 

I honestly think it’s amazing how well Howell has done this season, and even more amazing that he hasn’t had a season- or career-ending injury. 
 

I also like his very short memory and ice-in-the-veins approach. He really can’t be shook. 
 

We might move on from him but I’d love to see him with an OL that has 2 or 3 real starters (or even 5).  I hope he stays and keeps progressing. 
 

Hail. 

[philibusters]

3 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

I'm the opposite. I'm all for moving up, for a franchise QB prospect, because of the distortive power of hitting on the position. If you miss, it tends to be at a scale where you will be able to pick again near the top of a draft to address the position again. The position is simply too valuable and too sort of 10x in terms of effect to not be worth the cost of trade up. The addendum to that is that if teams picking #1 or #2 or whatever and need a QB, it's immaterial, the Bengals arent moving off Burrow in 2020, the Jags arent off Lawrence in '21 etc (though I'd still try to blow their ----s off in both instances). 

 

I am for moving up for a possible franchise QB too if the opportunity presents itself.   In terms of this year, this is my analysis (which I am copying and pasting from a Youtube comment I made): 

 

I guess this is the way I would think about it with Sam Howell and Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix. What are the odds they will develop into a franchise QB (which we will define loosely as a top 12 or so QB). I would put the odds at something roughly like:

 

1. Caleb Williams 75%  2. Drake Maye 60%  3. Jayden Daniels 30%  4. Sam Howell 20%  5. Michael Penix 20%  6. Bo Nix 15%

 

Admittedly there is some BS in those percentages as I haven't studied the guys and this is mostly based off their reputations as I understand them with all my biases. To me, the increase in chance of getting a franchise QB from Williams and Maye (increase you chances 55% with Williams and 40% with Maye over Howell) are definitely worth passing on a Marvin Harrison, Fashanu, Alt, Bowers, Latu type prospect). Its a closer call with Jayden Daniels. A 10% increase is significant, but at the same time if you ran 10 simulations, you would only get a real benefit 1 out of 10 times from making the move whereas probably 7 or 8 types you are going to get a real good starter cheap by taking the blue chip prospect. But the benefit of having a franchise QB is so great, I can definitely see the argument that its worth it to draft Daniels to get that 10% increase and pass on the blue chip prospect. I give Penix the same chances to be a franchise QB as Howell. Penix is like a half year older than Howell. When they were both starters in 2020 and 2021, Howell was the better player. Penix transferred and has emerged as really good college player the past two seasons, but some of that may just be he is older and more experienced than other QB's. Nix is in a very similar boat to Penix. He is a few months older than Penix and like Penix is either a fourth or fifth year starter this year. Yes he is a very good college player at this point, but I don't know if given his age if that gives him a higher chance of being a franchise QB than Howell.

 

As a reference point, since Marcus is a Packers fan, I would give Jordan Love a 30% chance of developing into a franchise QB. That probably means you pass on everybody but Williams and Maye who they won't be in a position to draft so they are unlikely to pick a QB. As another reference point, I would probably put Byrce Young around that 30% mark at this point. Going into the season, I probably had him around that Drake Maye point of 60%, but his he underperformed a bit what I expected out of his rookie year, maybe slightly lowering my expectations for him. But that is how I am thinking about this issue. The weakness in all of this is that I am just basing it off of reptuation--which does have some meaning--but somebody who has studied these QB and has a better informed opinion would be able to do a better analysis.