The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

10 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

As a side note to another poster, our target separation for pass catchers has risen from 30th to 29th in the league lol, so it aint quite as bad as it was a short while ago lol. 

Take THAT, Tennessee Titans!!

[The Consigliere]

6 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

The defense has been abysmal. Jack sucks.

The bummer here is that that was patently obvious when he was hired. When he was hired for the D, I had that Jimmy Raye for OC PTSD, just getting some clown 10 years past his sell by date suddenly responsible for everything on one of your 3 units. It was and is absurd, ridiculous that it happened 20 years apart and we're still this stupid with assistants. Keep those clowns around, run off the McVay's, Shanahans etc, but the dinosaurs? They plant roots that thrive in DC. So looking forward to these guys getting trebuchet'd out of DC in January, Defense needs to get it done down the stretch so we don't pull off a 3-1 December or whatever. Howell needs to dominate, and that ---- defense needs to do the job for our draft slotting and ejecting the clowns that built this ---- team around Sam for years before we were lucky enough to steal him. 

Edited November 13, 2023 by The Consigliere

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

[Captain Wiggles]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

I think I have seen enough. We need to sell the farm to get either Maye or Williams. Howell is just average. 

 

[Bunny Kelly]

If Howell keeps going at even 80% of his current level then EB gets some looks for HC for doing this with a 5th round QB on top of his KC resume. How important is EB staying around to Sam becoming the QB we need. At this stage for me it feels like the rest of the season is an evaluation of EB more than Sam for next season because Sam has enough credit in the bank to QB1 next season

[Going Commando]

7 hours ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

It felt like Sam was getting to his check downs/backs/TEs more quickly today. 
 

The kid looks more decisive every week. 

 

Styles make fights.  Can't throw on Seattle's corners, so we had to change our offense against them to take what was given: Boye Mafe alone covering the flat and tights ends running open through underneath seams.  Terry runs the slant at a super high level, but you can't live off of those without that safety coming down and closing the middle of the field.  We made a little hay off of that.  Otherwise today was a dink and dunk day and our only big play to a receiver was kind of a funky looking broken coverage to Dyami Brown.

 

Maybe we could have opened up the game a little more by commiting to the run early.  Took us until the second half to figure out that simple stretch runs would work.  I cringe every time we run the ball on some slow developing inside power run and get a yard or less because I know it means EB isn't going to run again for another six or seven plays.  Seattle begged us to run and we just refused to do it.

[Skinsinparadise]

[DJHJR86]

The numbers with Mayfield's rookie year continue to be almost identical.  Still too early to call him the guy, but he should be the QB1 here for the foreseeable future.  

[Renegade7]

Nobody touched this in the game day thread so ill ask again to keep the conversation honest...

 

Are Sam's inflated by us throwing the ball so damn much?.

 

I'm all in with him as the guy going forward, just when I numbers and records like I'm seeing, in my head it doesn't feel as simple as low number of great QBs in our franchise history.

[MisterPinstripe]

5 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Nobody touched this in the game day thread so ill ask again to keep the conversation honest...

 

Are Sam's inflated by us throwing the ball so damn much?.

 

I'm all in with him as the guy going forward, just when I numbers and records like I'm seeing, in my head it doesn't feel as simple as low number of great QBs in our franchise history.

We aren't protecting him by limiting how much he throws. Certainly he wouldn't be leading the league in passing if we didn't pass so much. But the fact that he is passing so much and doing so well is also an indication that he is really good. And doing it behind a bad OL and no running game.

[Renegade7]

15 minutes ago, MisterPinstripe said:

We aren't protecting him by limiting how much he throws. Certainly he wouldn't be leading the league in passing if we didn't pass so much. But the fact that he is passing so much and doing so well is also an indication that he is really good. And doing it behind a bad OL and no running game.

 

Cool cool, I agree, context here.

 

He is good but so many pass attempts we almost have to look at different stats to make sure what we really looking at.

 

Saw someone call him a top 10 QB, he's still taking too many hits to put over Herbert, imo.  The AFC is dominated by young talented QBs right now, but I love seeing him go at it with Hurts, 100% sure we have Eagles attention now, and that matters with so few good young QBs in the NFC.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Renegade7

[MartinC]

Sam currently leads the league in passing yardage and is tied 5th for TD passes. Some will say that’s because of the volume of attempts - he’s comfortably leading the league in passing attempts. There is some truth in that volume argument, but then think about that - a young QB with just 11 starts is being asked to carry the whole offense, not hand it off and only throw in advantageous situations.
 

He IS the offense. 

 

To me that makes his numbers and the performances that lead to those numbers even more impressive. No training wheels, not being slowly managed and protected by play calling (or the damn O’line come to that!)  - thrown in the deep end and told to swim. And he is.

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

 

Saw someone call him a top 10 QB, he's still taking too many hits to put over Herbert, imo. 

Now that EB has finally realized the limitations of our pass pro and stopped calling those slow developing 5 step drop throws the hits and sacks are much lower. We are back into ‘normal’ territory. I think Howell will always be a guy who stands in and waits on something and is prepared to take a hit to make a play - that’s just a trait of his. But he’s clearly improved in getting the ball out of his hands helped by better game planning and play calling.

[kingdaddy]

11 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I heard from a friend that Penn State fired their OC after the brutal loss to Michigan so why do we keep JDR around for another week of brutal defense? We cannot get any worse if we fire him. Did anyone notice that when we did blitz yesterday it was largely effective and had Geno running and dumping the ball? Please fire JDR today.

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

Are Sam's inflated by us throwing the ball so damn much?.

 

Yes

 

but he looks good regardless.

[Warhead36]

5 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Yes

 

but he looks good regardless.

This is correct. He has a ton of attempts for sure. A lot of his stats are volume stats.

 

But here's the thing: we HAVE to throw the ball. Our run game stinks. Our defense is constantly giving up 20+ points and over 350 yards. 

 

The strength of our team is Sam Howell. A 5th round 2nd year QB with now 11 career starts.

 

And despite that, he's still putting up top 10, Pro Bowl caliber #s. THAT is impressive.

[srtman04]

Sam is technically a rookie by playing standards.   This is his first year as an actual starter,  and he's already putting up top 10 numbers.   I look at the other QB's who are rookie's from that '23 QB class and the only one even comparable to Sam is CJ Stroud.   Everything one else,  Sam is clearly ahead and better.  I'm happy we have him,  the problems are defense, not offense this year.  

[lovemaskins]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

This is correct. He has a ton of attempts for sure. A lot of his stats are volume stats.

 

But here's the thing: we HAVE to throw the ball. Our run game stinks. Our defense is constantly giving up 20+ points and over 350 yards. 

 

The strength of our team is Sam Howell. A 5th round 2nd year QB with now 11 career starts.

 

And despite that, he's still putting up top 10, Pro Bowl caliber #s. THAT is impressive.

I disagree that our run game stinks, I actually think it’s good, but we just refuse to run the ball. Which is the only reason I’m hesitant to bring EB back as offensive coordinator.  I’m a firm believer that you have to run the ball consistently to play good offense and he just doesn’t which drives me nuts. And when he does run it, like 4 in a row yesterday, we’re successful and he looks around like, see, I ran the damn ball, happy!?

 

As a former lineman, it’s important to let your oline fire off and hit somebody. It’s sets the tone and gives your lineman a break from dancing and chopping feet, plus it fatigues the defense and keeps them off balance. I have no clue why EB doesn’t do it considering he was a damn running back.  We’re so unbalanced and the fact that we pass so much and Sam continues to thrive when teams are game planning for nothing but passing is incredible and evidence he’s the guy. I wonder how good he’d be in a play action system where the defense has to play him honest.

[Warhead36]

9 minutes ago, lovemaskins said:

I disagree that our run game stinks, I actually think it’s good, but we just refuse to run the ball. Which is the only reason I’m hesitant to bring EB back as offensive coordinator.  I’m a firm believer that you have to run the ball consistently to play good offense and he just doesn’t which drives me nuts. And when he does run it, like 4 in a row yesterday, we’re successful and he looks around like, see, I ran the damn ball, happy!?

 

As a former lineman, it’s important to let your oline fire off and hit somebody. It’s sets the tone and gives your lineman a break from dancing and chopping feet, plus it fatigues the defense and keeps them off balance. I have no clue why EB doesn’t do it considering he was a damn running back.  We’re so unbalanced and the fact that we pass so much and Sam continues to thrive when teams are game planning for nothing but passing is incredible and evidence he’s the guy. I wonder how good he’d be in a play action system where the defense has to play him honest.

A lot of our passes are short quick passes which are essentially run plays that on average net you more yards. I wouldn't get too hung up on the run to pass play ratio. That also gets inflated because we've been in multiple must pass situations late in games being behind.

 

We tried to run out the clock in New England last week and failed miserably.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, srtman04 said:

Sam is technically a rookie by playing standards.   This is his first year as an actual starter,  and he's already putting up top 10 numbers.   I look at the other QB's who are rookie's from that '23 QB class and the only one even comparable to Sam is CJ Stroud.   Everything one else,  Sam is clearly ahead and better.  I'm happy we have him,  the problems are defense, not offense this year.  

 

I think he's better than that. I've highlighted the metrics for passing where he's below average through 9 weeks (not adjusted for yesterday's game which would likely only improve it) via player profiler:

 

Accuracy Rating: 14th

True Completion Pct: 12th

AYA: 21st

AYA per attempt: 16th

True Passer Rating: 18th

QBR: 12th

Expected Points Added: 9th

Production Premium: 12th

Red Zone Accuracy: 31st

Deep Ball Accuracy Rating: 17th

Clean Pocket Accuracy: 16th

Deep Ball Catchable Pass Rate: 7th

Pressured Catchable Pass Rate: 29th

Catchable Pass Rate: 21st

Comp % vs Man: 26th

Comp % vs Zone: 11th

Passer Rating vs Man: 29th

Passer Rating vs Zone: 14th

Accuracy Rating vs Man: 21st

Accuracy Rating vs Zone: 14th

 

He's in the top half of QB's in 11 of 20 categories, bottom half in 9, but the stinkers are pretty damn specific, red zone accuracy, pressured catchable pass rate, and struggles with man coverage. That's it. I'm confused by the issues with man coverage as I had assumed overe the years that zone tended to give young QB's problems, and man coverage was usually a boon, but honestly i find myself wondering how many metrics are negatively impacted by pressure and having a dog---- OL, especially the first seven or eight weeks of the season.

 

So far he basically looks league average or better in general, and in the big time throws metric, which aint amongst these, he's inside the top 10. He's looking at worst right now, like a league average guy with + running ability/scrambling skills (got a decent chance of approaching 300 yards on the ground which aint bad, and probably would be much better if not for the protection issues). 

 

[Warhead36]

He's bad against man because our WRs don't beat man coverage. Haven't all year.

[srtman04]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I think he's better than that. I've highlighted the metrics for passing where he's below average through 9 weeks (not adjusted for yesterday's game which would likely only improve it) via player profiler:

 

Accuracy Rating: 14th

True Completion Pct: 12th

AYA: 21st

AYA per attempt: 16th

True Passer Rating: 18th

QBR: 12th

Expected Points Added: 9th

Production Premium: 12th

Red Zone Accuracy: 31st

Deep Ball Accuracy Rating: 17th

Clean Pocket Accuracy: 16th

Deep Ball Catchable Pass Rate: 7th

Pressured Catchable Pass Rate: 29th

Catchable Pass Rate: 21st

Comp % vs Man: 26th

Comp % vs Zone: 11th

Passer Rating vs Man: 29th

Passer Rating vs Zone: 14th

Accuracy Rating vs Man: 21st

Accuracy Rating vs Zone: 14th

 

He's in the top half of QB's in 11 of 20 categories, bottom half in 9, but the stinkers are pretty damn specific, red zone accuracy, pressured catchable pass rate, and struggles with man coverage. That's it. I'm confused by the issues with man coverage as I had assumed overe the years that zone tended to give young QB's problems, and man coverage was usually a boon, but honestly i find myself wondering how many metrics are negatively impacted by pressure and having a dog---- OL, especially the first seven or eight weeks of the season.

 

So far he basically looks league average or better in general, and in the big time throws metric, which aint amongst these, he's inside the top 10. He's looking at worst right now, like a league average guy with + running ability/scrambling skills (got a decent chance of approaching 300 yards on the ground which aint bad, and probably would be much better if not for the protection issues). 

 

 

I totally agree.   Get this man an O-LINE and watch him SHINE.  

[The Consigliere]

34 minutes ago, lovemaskins said:

I disagree that our run game stinks, I actually think it’s good, but we just refuse to run the ball. Which is the only reason I’m hesitant to bring EB back as offensive coordinator.  I’m a firm believer that you have to run the ball consistently to play good offense and he just doesn’t which drives me nuts. And when he does run it, like 4 in a row yesterday, we’re successful and he looks around like, see, I ran the damn ball, happy!?

 

As a former lineman, it’s important to let your oline fire off and hit somebody. It’s sets the tone and gives your lineman a break from dancing and chopping feet, plus it fatigues the defense and keeps them off balance. I have no clue why EB doesn’t do it considering he was a damn running back.  We’re so unbalanced and the fact that we pass so much and Sam continues to thrive when teams are game planning for nothing but passing is incredible and evidence he’s the guy. I wonder how good he’d be in a play action system where the defense has to play him honest.

We have a below average OL, and our running backs are an untrusted, athletic pass catcher who learned the position right before he left for the NFL (Gibson) and a tough hombre Jag in Brian Robinson, who isn't bad, he's just not remotely special. They pass a lot for many reasons, but two of the biggest reasons are #1 the defense is horrible and so we have to play catch up constantly and #2 our QB's passing chops and our pass catchers are all more talented than the pieces we have available for our running game. So Game Model plus talent distribution. If they want to stick with Robinson, that's on them. There's nothing wrong with the guy, there's just more than 20 RB's around the league, probably more than 25 I'd prefer, easily, whereas Howell, and McLaurin are much better than 25th-35th percentile level talent compared to their peers. 

 

For those doubting, here's robinson's efficiency stats:

True Yards Per Carry: 37th

Yards Per Touch: 27th

Juke Rate: 35th

Evaded Tackles: 23rd

Breakaway Run Rate: 22nd

 

He does finish in the teens in yards created, Production Premium, and Dominator rating.

 

But the picture with him is what it's always been, he's a tough, between the tackles guy w/some breakaway game, but not anything else special to lean on. He's a perfectly adequate Terry Allen (minus, I liked Allen more) kind of plug and play rb until we get an actual difference maker in the draft. 

 

We have to throw because that's where the offensive talent is (what little we have) and our defense is trash. Simple as that. If we relied more heavily on the run, we'd be likely to fall even further behind even faster due to 3 and outs. 

9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

He's bad against man because our WRs don't beat man coverage. Haven't all year.

That ties in to the god awful target separation mode: 30th last week, now 29th in the league in target separation. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

But here's the thing: we HAVE to throw the ball. Our run game stinks. Our defense is constantly giving up 20+ points and over 350 yards. 

 

We don't.  We had a lead for most of the first half yesterday and still refused to run.  The OL giving up lots of pressure and the defense struggling are tied to the extremely unbalanced and uncomplimentary way our offense is called.  The OLs are in true pass sets where there is no real chance at fooling the defense at the most extreme rate in the NFL.  And the offense is so inefficient and incapable of building leads and controlling the clock and momentum that the defense always seems to be on its heels.

 

This unmethodical, live by the big play die by the big play offense we run just isn't good.  Reminds me of the Andy Reid system from his Philly years when they weren't good and didn't have overwhelming talent like he's had in KC.  It's the worst version of the system and it has and will continue to lead to losses.  But it will also force through two years of passing attempts and coverage looks for Sam, so from a QB developmental perspective, there is some benefit.  Except that it's likely to get everyone coaching him fired.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

He IS the offense. 

 

 

He IMO is the team.  He's their best chance every game.