The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Im starting to think now, maybe we keep Howell and EB together and let them grow. Man the new GM will have some tough decisions to make.

 

I hope that's not a factor unless the idea is to make Bieniemy HC.  I think i've seen enough that i don't want him as HC but the process of retaining Bieiniemy in that context would be fine -- because at least from a process standpoint it would come off like a normal team. 

 

I'd like to be a normal team.  GM hires a coach.  That coach will likely be an offensive minded coach.  That coach then hires the coordinator -- if the head coach isn't Bieniemy (which I suspect it won't be) the odds are low it will be Bieniemy as the offensive coordinator. 

 

Keim went over this in his last podcast -- expecting somewhat of this process and actually talked about Bieiniemy in this context -- implying he doubts a new coach would retain him.

 

We got plenty of time of course.  My key thing is not to saddle the new GM and HC with any coordinator.  It would be their call, 100%, no pressure.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

This is great. Because while he praised Sam, he inadvertently praises EB because all that attention to detail this off-season is paying off right now. Beautiful. 

 

Not much on that front unless they talked about Sam again later in the podcast?    He put his success to his college reps and instincts on the field.    Only praise if you are looking for some for EB that he notices is that its clear they practice what to do when a play breaks down.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I hope that's not a factor unless the idea is to make Bieniemy HC.  I think i've seen enough that i don't want him as HC but the process of retaining Bieiniemy in that context would be fine -- because at least from a process standpoint it would come off like a normal team. 

 

I'd like to be a normal team.  GM hires a coach.  That coach will likely be an offensive minded coach.  That coach then hires the coordinator -- if the head coach isn't Bieniemy (which I suspect it won't be) the odds are low it will be Bieniemy as the offensive coordinator. 

 

Keim went over this in his last podcast -- expecting somewhat of this process and actually talked about Bieiniemy in this context -- implying he doubts a new coach would retain him.

 

We got plenty of time of course.  My key thing is not to saddle the new GM and HC with any coordinator.  It would be their call, 100%, no pressure.

I agree completely. I dont wanna force any player or coach on anyone. 
 

But I kinda wanna see this Howell/EB connection play out.

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I agree completely. I dont wanna force any player or coach on anyone. 
 

But I kinda wanna see this Howell/EB connection play out.

 

I liked the EB hire.  Though I was a bit more measured than some about it -- i wasn't in the camp of lets make him HC.  

 

I am even less into the idea of him being the HC now that I've seen him in action.  i don't think he's good at complementary football -- helping all units succeed as some have talked about on this thread and others.   As a speaker, he's entertaining at times -- but also seems like an odd duck especially when he referrs to himself in third person.

 

If they made him HC -- from a needle standpoint it would be a 1 out of 10 for me.  So on the aggregate, I guess I am in the camp of I hope this Sam-Bieniemy pairing breaks up next year.  But i do understand the sentiment of continuity so I get the spirit of the point.  I agree with the spirit of the point.  But for me the reason is I doubt a new offensive minded HC would hire Bieniemy to run the offense.   As Keim said maybe on the off chance they hire a defensive minded HC, Bieiniemy makes the cut in that context.

 

Sam is a smart guy.  While I thought Rivera had a crap off season, I did like that they changed from Air Coryell to a WCO.  So many more coordinators run variations of WCO.  My point is moving on from Bieniemy likely won't be a radical departure.   As Jay Gruden among others have said, the plays aren't radically different from one offense to another -- but the terminology takes take to learn.  As long as Howell sticks to a WCO, I'd expect the transition to work fine.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[skinny21]

Sanchez hit on an important piece, and it’s one of the reasons I was initially hopeful for offensive continuity.  IMV, quarterbacking is made up of 3 elements - the physical stuff, mastery of the offense, and reading defenses.  There might be some smaller concerns with Howell on the physical front, but he’s shown he can play at a high level.  The other two facets, he appears to be doing a pretty good job with, but they take time.  The good news is that even if a change in offensive scheme sets him back, he’s getting some serious exposure to NFL defenses.  So while I’m concerned/bummed about the time lost in changing schemes, at least he should be going into it with a bit of a head start over where he started this year… especially if (as we all expect/hope) his surrounding personnel is improved.

[Skinsinparadise]

Sean Payton was a buffoon at the beginning of the season.  Now he's a smart dude again apparently.   Beating the Bills, Chiefs, etc. 

 

We got Denver early this season -- which was good luck.    We got Buffalo early this season -- which was bad luck.

 

 

 

[Ball Security]

13 hours ago, Conn said:

Great QB School video, everybody here needs to take the 25 minutes and watch that video. Helped me appreciate a little more what EB's doing, when things are obviously going wrong, when Howell is creating out of structure and when he's ignoring the structure when he shouldn't. Great video, very educational and JT O'Sullivan does a great job of dumbing things down enough without being patronizing. He is gonna be a football content star. 

I also watched the Patriots one last night too. Good stuff.

Watson out for the season. Can you imagine if we made that trade…

[Chris 44]

28 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I also watched the Patriots one last night too. Good stuff.

Watson out for the season. Can you imagine if we made that trade…

Sounds like its not just a shoulder but also an ankle injury that flared up during the game. Browns fans must be beside themselves at this point.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

13 hours ago, Conn said:

Great QB School video, everybody here needs to take the 25 minutes and watch that video. Helped me appreciate a little more what EB's doing, when things are obviously going wrong, when Howell is creating out of structure and when he's ignoring the structure when he shouldn't. Great video, very educational and JT O'Sullivan does a great job of dumbing things down enough without being patronizing. He is gonna be a football content star. 

 

I came away from that video thinking we've either got some coaching issues or some of our players struggle to play with more awareness. The WR's are not as alert to opportunities against coverages when they should be.

 

One of Howell's poor throws I thought he looked at the inside WR first to see if he'd look back at the QB when realizing the corner wasn't going with him. But that WR wasn't aware, and Howell just pivoted, planted, and blindly threw to the outside WR. Incomplete, but 2 defenders tried to make a play on it.

 

Either the WR can't adapt on the fly, or coaching is a problem.

 

I think it's also notable how much better Pringle is at adjusting to Howell leaving the pocket than the rest of our WR's.

[Skinsinparadise]

FORMER NFL QUARTERBACK Kurt Warner understands what Howell has endured. He went through similar issues at various points in his career. He adjusted and earned a spot in the Hall of Fame because, he says, making necessary changes lengthened his career, allowing him to finish strong.

Warner, who did not play in the NFL until he was 27 years old, had a sack percentage between 5.5 and 6.5 during his first three seasons. But the next three years -- two with the St. Louis Rams and one with the Giants -- that percentage shot up.

Each season it was more than 8.5% with a high of 12.3% in 2004 with the Giants. But over his final five seasons, the number was under 5.8% four times, and in his last three seasons, all with Arizona, it was less than 4.5% each time.

"When you take hits, it slows you down," Warner said. "And I know as young guys, we think we're invincible. We can take as many hits as we need and we'll just keep on ticking. But it doesn't work out that way. You're getting hit a lot, oftentimes it's going to lead to nicks and bumps and bruises and things that can affect your everyday ability to play the game, to practice, to do all of those things that make guys great."

The hits impact how long it takes a quarterback to recover, both physically and mentally.

"They force you to play the game a little bit differently, or at least to have to fight it more mentally when you're not getting hit, you don't think about getting hit," Warner said.

 

Warner said he would also do what a lot of quarterbacks are doing now: getting massages, eating better, having more focus on taking care of his body during the week. But he also altered his game.

"I was a guy that studied our offense more than I studied the defense because I wanted to know what my answer was to everything that the defense did," Warner said. "So the sooner I could see it, the sooner I understood where my eyes needed to be, the sooner I could get the ball out of my hands."

He also said he'd take an "extra tick" in his drop to get a yard-and-a-half deeper away from the offensive line.

"All of those nuances can help you make things speed up," Warner said. "Anticipation. Do you have the ability to anticipate to throw a ball before a guy is open instead of waiting for him to get open again. That was a trait I had. I don't know how much that can be taught."

 

But there was also this: He wanted to make the big play, which required hanging in the pocket a little longer. Warner averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt, second highest among quarterbacks who played at least 100 games since 2000.

"I'm going to stand in here until the last minute, so you give me as much time as you can and then I'll take the big hit for you guys and I'll deliver for you on the backend," he said. "And so part of that was just the nature of how I wanted to play and how I wanted to be a tough quarterback for my guys because I know the toughness that it takes to play all the other positions."

 

Clyde Christensen, who was quarterbacks coach for both Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston, can empathize with Howell. Both quarterbacks were sacked often. Luck was sacked a combined 73 times in his first two seasons with Christensen as his position coach. Though Luck stayed healthy in his first three seasons, he missed 26 games over the next three and retired after one more full season because of repeated injuries. Winston was sacked a career-high 47 times in his one season with Christensen, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

 

With Luck, in Indianapolis, Christesen used a picture of an F-16 fighter jet to remind his quarterbacks even the most valuable pieces of equipment needed to be handled with care. He also used the Indy 500 to deliver another message: It does no good to be leading at the midway point only to be knocked out of the race.

He recalls going into the Colts' facility the morning after beating the Denver Broncos on a Monday night in 2015. Christensen was giddy.

"I go, oh man we're sitting pretty right now," he recalled thinking. "We're going to make a little run."

Then he walked into his office, the trainer came in and delivered jarring news: Luck had lacerated his kidney. He was done for the year.

 

"That ended our chances of winning the Super Bowl," said Christensen, who also coached Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. "As the guys [they're facing] get bigger, faster, stronger, the hits get more and they are cumulative. That's what I'd always stress. A high ankle sprain leads to, now you're getting hit a little harder because the guy you used to be able to avoid gets a solid blow. Then you get bruised ribs.

"Peyton and Brady had a genius to them -- they'd go on these long streaks of health. That's not because they're soft -- those are two tough guys -- but they understand."

 

Christensen said protecting quarterbacks is not just on the quarterback. But they are the ones who deal with the impact.

"I don't care who you are," Christensen said, "those body blows take a toll. The lesser experienced guys, all of a sudden they start looking at the rush and all of a sudden your feet are never set. ... The next thing you know the first read opened and closed and your feet weren't in the ground ready to pull the trigger."

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38891939/commanders-qb-sam-howell-shrugging-hits

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Howell isn't getting hit as much as we think, he just has an astronomical propensity to get sacked that's coloring perceptions a little.

 

 

If we sort by Hit %, he's not so bad. A lot of quality QB's getting hit at a higher rate than Howell is.

 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I hope that's not a factor unless the idea is to make Bieniemy HC.  I think i've seen enough that i don't want him as HC but the process of retaining Bieiniemy in that context would be fine -- because at least from a process standpoint it would come off like a normal team. 

 

I'd like to be a normal team.  GM hires a coach.  That coach will likely be an offensive minded coach.  That coach then hires the coordinator -- if the head coach isn't Bieniemy (which I suspect it won't be) the odds are low it will be Bieniemy as the offensive coordinator. 

 

Keim went over this in his last podcast -- expecting somewhat of this process and actually talked about Bieiniemy in this context -- implying he doubts a new coach would retain him.

 

We got plenty of time of course.  My key thing is not to saddle the new GM and HC with any coordinator.  It would be their call, 100%, no pressure.

You're right but man, you do not want to put a young QB on a system merry go round, season to season, those stories do not end well. I suppose the best way to find that golden mean is to hire a FO/HC that is willing to work within the system, but you can't constrain them to that degree. Difficult situation but at least we have hope at QB for the first time in nearly a decade. 

[Chris 44]

1 minute ago, The Consigliere said:

You're right but man, you do not want to put a young QB on a system merry go round, season to season, those stories do not end well. I suppose the best way to find that golden mean is to hire a FO/HC that is willing to work within the system, but you can't constrain them to that degree. Difficult situation but at least we have hope at QB for the first time in nearly a decade. 

I may be in the minority here but I dont have any worries with Howell learning another system. Much rather get the best OC we can get and have Howell and the OC develop. Hoping the HC is the correct guy and the OC compliments. Much rather have stability going forward and have Howell learn and grow with a new OC. I have no worries about Howell being able to absorb another system if he is our long term answer along with hopefully the new staff.

[FootballZombie]

36 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Howell isn't getting hit as much as we think, he just has an astronomical propensity to get sacked that's coloring perceptions a little.

 

I think he is getting wrecked as much as we think.

The lower hit rate don't mean too much when we pass 50 times a game. He gets his punishment thru inflation.

 

Dude is at 84 body blows. (47 sacks + 37 hits) He is far and away taking more damage than anybody in the NFL. He's outpacing 2nd place by nearly 20.

He's getting destroyed.

[Going Commando]

26 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Howell isn't getting hit as much as we think, he just has an astronomical propensity to get sacked that's coloring perceptions a little.

 

Vikings QBs have been getting lit up.  That OL has Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill (leading the NFL in pass block win rate), plus two other first and second round picks on it, plus Dalton Risner (9th in the NFL in PBWR among IOLs).  That's an indication that fixing pass pro issues isn't as simple as throwing resources at the OL, or even getting players who are individually very good at pass protection.

 

Howell's total pressures are far and away higher than the #2 guy, but his pressure rate is average.  The key info from your chart that demonstrates our problems in pass pro:

 

1 - Howell's attempts are so extreme that it's led to an extreme number of pressures and sacks.  He's at well over two full games-worth more passing attempts than the average QB who has started all of their team's games so far (should be just over 300 attempts and Howell is at 397).

 

2 - Howell has seen about two games-worth more blitzes than the next highest QB.  We're getting blitzed at an extreme rate, which suggests that we aren't handling them well at all.  Howell's not finding his hots and our protections aren't being adjusted to pick them up, and defenses are just going to this well over and over because it works.

 

This is bad offense.  It's not good for producing anything other than volume stats and fantasy points for Sam.  We have got to run the ball, and we have to find a way to beat blitzes when we throw.

[skinny21]

38 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

You're right but man, you do not want to put a young QB on a system merry go round, season to season, those stories do not end well. I suppose the best way to find that golden mean is to hire a FO/HC that is willing to work within the system, but you can't constrain them to that degree. Difficult situation but at least we have hope at QB for the first time in nearly a decade. 

It’ll be an interesting first indicator to see how the new GM addresses this issue.  Being sold on Howell and wanting to get on the front foot suggests a smart GM/HC would at least look to the same offensive tree (if not give EB another year), taking advantage of Howell’s rookie contract.  Going the other route - a very different offense - could be a sign of longer term thinking.  Or it could mean nothing (other than the GM just picking what he perceives to be the best HC), lol.

30 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

I may be in the minority here but I dont have any worries with Howell learning another system. Much rather get the best OC we can get and have Howell and the OC develop. Hoping the HC is the correct guy and the OC compliments. Much rather have stability going forward and have Howell learn and grow with a new OC. I have no worries about Howell being able to absorb another system if he is our long term answer along with hopefully the new staff.

Personally, I’m not worried about Howell’s ability to pick up another system, but I do worry we squander the rookie contract window.  And of course we’re pushing off his chance to truly master an offense, which limits his ceiling in the short term and therefore might increase the chance that he’s not seen as “good enough” long term.  In other words, not hard to envision a scenario where we switch systems on him, and the learning curve makes the decision to extend him harder.  Then, if we don’t extend him after next year (the end of his 3rd year), you’re running into trying to re-sign him before the start of FA, after his contract is up (a-la Cousins), after not showing faith in him (ie. No early extension).

 

I think there’s probably a greater chance that improving the team around him, along with him now having experience in the league will make it apparent that he needs to be extended, and it’s also possible Howell wouldn’t have any hard feelings about not getting extended initially… but it’s still a potential hindrance/pitfall IMO.

 

If I’m taking the long view, I just want the best possible GM/HC combo.  With that said, the idea of going back to the well for a qb after our history of qb problems is pretty scary though.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

You're right but man, you do not want to put a young QB on a system merry go round, season to season, those stories do not end well. I suppose the best way to find that golden mean is to hire a FO/HC that is willing to work within the system, but you can't constrain them to that degree. Difficult situation but at least we have hope at QB for the first time in nearly a decade. 

 

I want a top HC.   If Harris thinks Bieniemy is that, OK.  If he doesn't, I think it would be borderline ridiculous to elevate Bieniemy just for this reason.  Most HCs are given 3 years or so.  I'd rather not go for a ride that doesn't take you far and then have to readjust with a new coaching staff again.

 

If Howell can adjust within a season from an Air Coryel system to a WCO after his 6th or so career start.  Somehow i think he will manage if the next coach is from the same WCO tree.

[method man]

Does anyone understand the system Ben Johnson runs? He has worked under a number of offensive minds from different backgrounds. Tough to obviously pin him down

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

46 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I think he is getting wrecked as much as we think.

The lower hit rate don't mean too much when we pass 50 times a game. He gets his punishment thru inflation.

 

I get it, that's a valid argument to run the ball more.

 

46 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Dude is at 84 body blows. (47 sacks + 37 hits) He is far and away taking more damage than anybody in the NFL. He's outpacing 2nd place by nearly 20.

He's getting destroyed.

 

Not quite how the stat works. A sack is usually also a QB Hit. There are some cases where the QB gives themself up, or runs out of bounds before the LoS, or trips etc, those don't also count as a QB hit. But in general a sack is going to count as a QB Hit. So we can't add Sacks + QB Hits and come to total contact as the stats don't quite work like that.

 

Similarly, every Interception also counts as a Pass Defensed. And every Sack also counts as a TFL.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

This is bad offense.  It's not good for producing anything other than volume stats and fantasy points for Sam.  We have got to run the ball, and we have to find a way to beat blitzes when we

I mean, that’s not actually true given the number of points they score.

 

They’ve lost 2 games this season when the offense put up 30+ points.  
 

They’ve also come back to lead or tie in a couple of games (including the last one)

 

If the defense wasn’t abysmal, we’d have at least 2 or 3 more wins.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

50 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Vikings QBs have been getting lit up.  That OL has Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill (leading the NFL in pass block win rate), plus two other first and second round picks on it, plus Dalton Risner (9th in the NFL in PBWR among IOLs).  That's an indication that fixing pass pro issues isn't as simple as throwing resources at the OL, or even getting players who are individually very good at pass protection.

 

Howell's total pressures are far and away higher than the #2 guy, but his pressure rate is average.  The key info from your chart that demonstrates our problems in pass pro:

 

1 - Howell's attempts are so extreme that it's led to an extreme number of pressures and sacks.  He's at well over two full games-worth more passing attempts than the average QB who has started all of their team's games so far (should be just over 300 attempts and Howell is at 397).

 

2 - Howell has seen about two games-worth more blitzes than the next highest QB.  We're getting blitzed at an extreme rate, which suggests that we aren't handling them well at all.  Howell's not finding his hots and our protections aren't being adjusted to pick them up, and defenses are just going to this well over and over because it works.

 

This is bad offense.  It's not good for producing anything other than volume stats and fantasy points for Sam.  We have got to run the ball, and we have to find a way to beat blitzes when we throw.

 

Yup. I think one reason Seattle (and some other teams) are able to tee off on blitzes, is that they know our WR's struggle against Press. Unfortunately the biggest knock on Dotson pre-draft continues to be a problem, and that was struggling against Press.

 

I think we've got 2 issues when throwing hot. 1) We need to look in the draft for guys who can fight against hands on them in a release. Howell can't throw hot if it takes them an extra two steps to get into their release. 2) I feel like some of our WR's have not realized they were hot, or the QB isn't signaling to them that they should be looking to be hot. Or maybe it's coaching failing in telling them to read the blitz to improv to hot if you see the blitz is actually happening. There is clearly some sort of misunderstanding or communication issue or something here. Could be the WR's, could be the QB, could be coaching. No idea.

[Voice_of_Reason]

So, with the Reid style offense, there is no question anybody off of that tree is going to be a more pass-heavy offense.  

 

However, I wonder about a few things:

 

1. I wonder what the percentage of passes are where the pass is simply a short "extension of the running game" type of throw.

 

2. I wonder if the OL was moderately better at running the ball, particularly in the first half, if we would do it more.  

 

3. I think a side benefit of throwing as much as we have is we've accelerated Howell's development.  He's seen a lot more.  3 things all happened, kindof at the same time which started to reduce the sack numbers:  A. Howell started making MUCH quicker decisions. B. there were more quick-game throws.  C. Larson and Paul took over on the OL.  The pressure numbers dropped precipitously when those three things happened.  I wonder which was the most beneficial of the three.

 

Right now, we're sitting at a 66% pass team, most in the league.  Even I think that's a bit too high.  I think the target should be somewhere around 60%.  

 

The problem, at least early, is they just have been absolutely abysmal at running the ball in the first half.  And a first half run has too often just been a give-up down.  So, I can see the theory in using a pass to replace the run at a higher rate just to get positive yardage.  I think a lot of that is on the OL.

 

I do think you need to stick with the run, and 5 attempts is not enough before you go away from it.  But I think if we ran better early in the game, you'd see a lot more of it.  Right now, our first quarter runs seem to average less than 2 yards a carry.  

 

I guess I think there's a 2 step process to the running game:

 

1. Run the ball better early

2. Which leads to running the ball more

 

We seem to be ok at running in the second half.  I think part of that is because we've established the pass, and teams are playing off a bit.

 

Before worrying too much about "running more" I'd like to see us "run better." Especially early.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[oraphus]

I am pissed at the dumb Browns for not trading for Brisset.  I think a 5th rd pick would have done it. Now we are stuck with a guy we dont need and will lose for nothing next year and Browns with #1 D and a pretty solid team will go nowhere with their current QB stable of nobodies 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So, with the Reid style offense, there is no question anybody off of that tree is going to be a more pass-heavy offense.  

 

However, I wonder about a few things:

 

1. I wonder what the percentage of passes are where the pass is simply a short "extension of the running game" type of throw.

 

2. I wonder if the OL was moderately better at running the ball, particularly in the first half, if we would do it more.  

 

 

Ironically, the dude who has your back on this point is your guy Jay Gruden.  He sees the short pass game as an extension of the run.  He also likes to say this O line isn't built to run the ball and they don't have enough TE blockers to help.  He likes Bates as a blocker but that's it among this group.

 

For me, I am good with a more pass heavy approach.  But I think its a half a peg too extreme on that count for me.  Among other things, it helps cue up opponents defenses.  Caroll's comment below I find telling.  More or less, they game planned for the pass happy appproach and were thrown off in the 2nd half when they started to run the ball. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise