The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[DJHJR86]

 

That seems more reasonable of a ranking than 13th overall.  

[stoshuaj]

Howell’s value at the moment is that he’s a cheap, durable (for now) punching bag so the next shiny new toy doesn’t have to get his ass kicked right away while they are attempting to fix this ****show.  
 

Archie Manning has a seat reserved for him on the David Carr memorial trash heap of used and abused QBs asylum

[D’Pablo]

Seriously, why isn't Ron, who is somehow still employed, not getting on his hands and knees begging Matsko to come back?

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

He gets sacked a lot.

 

That's my analysis.

 

You each owe me $25.00.

[DWinzit]

3 minutes ago, D’Pablo said:

Seriously, why isn't Ron, who is somehow still employed, not getting on his hands and knees begging Matsko to come back?

Yes, or making any efforts to changing up the OL with other players on the roster or looking elsewhere

[DJHJR86]

4 minutes ago, D’Pablo said:

Seriously, why isn't Ron, who is somehow still employed, not getting on his hands and knees begging Matsko to come back?

 

Because his assistant head coach wants nothing to do with him.

[oraphus]

man..... Reid must have Washington on speed dial and uncontrollably salivates every time he sees the phone ring. Here is how he has taken advantage of this team with no reach around option.

 

2010 - Mcnab for a 2nd and Forth - Mcnab on his last leg, mostly done

2018   - Alex Smith for a 3rd and Fuller in this prime. dink and dunk king.. with noodle arm. no chance in todays NFL unless team around him is fully stacked

2022  - Bienieme - getting dumbo Ron to give Bienieme a job just so he could get him out of his org and still save face. Bienieme is over his head, looks lost out there.. he is a joke as an OC

2023 - There is still time Ron! maybe trade Terry for the Chiefs waterboy?

Edited October 23, 2023 by oraphus

[The Consigliere]

On 10/20/2023 at 9:11 AM, Going Commando said:

 

It didn't make sense to saddle the next regime with RG3, Haskins, Campbell, or Ramsey.  We know from hindsight that they only got a half-hearted shot with the next regime, and those regimes failed largely because they couldn't get their QB room settled.  In Ron's case, having one foot in the door on Haskins in 2020 caused him to scuffle on QB at the most critical stage of the establishment of his regime.  If he had drafted Tua or Herbert in his first offseason, he wouldn't be getting fired at the end of this year.

 

I have zero interest in continuing the pattern and seeing the next regime get saddled with Howell, only for them to cut bait after a year and then be scuffling at QB for years until it's time for them to get fired too.  I want a clear cut direction at QB and the firm establishment of the QB-HC marriage in year one.  If Howell's the guy they choose, so be it.  Otherwise, I want them to draft/trade for their QB this offseason and trade Howell when they find a buyer.

The big problem is that even if Howell isn't the guy, the early season comeback wins over Arizona, and Denver, combined with late season potential for slot busting wins has likely derailed any shot at a blue chipper.

December is chock full of likely tanking teams on road trips (LA Rams, NYJ), and playoff bound teams that could be resting starts (Dallas and SF), and before that we have winnable games against the Patriots and Giants. 

 

The ceiling w/all teams going 100% in every game would probably be 5-6 wins, the floor, 3-4 wins on the season, but the rams, Jets, Cowboys, and SF games all have factors in play that could change how much effort teams put in w/regards to starters and resting players. Rams strike me as likely to be 5-7 and not quite out of it, maybe 6-6. Jets grand mal stupidity at QB behind Rodgers means they're probably at 6-7 wins when they play us. 

 

Hard to tell what we'll be. I tend to think we'll be 4-9 or 5-8 going into that stretch run against teams with nebulous interest down the stretch. We'll want the NFC to bunch up more for the cowboys, the Eagles to be within catching distance etc, and the Rams and Jets to not completely implode. 

 

Most likely the pick will be 6th-12th, outside bluechip zone, but in the zone for the 3rd to 4th QB plus the top 2 available OL's. 

 

New regime will have an interesting debate. When Ron came in I was 1000% in favor of QB in 2020 over Young, Tua not getting Herbert at the time, though I preferred a trade down for either or Tua at slot. Now if we are in range of a QB we should pull the trigger, but if we're not, would it be crazy to just go OL, give Howell more help, than he bottoms out in '24 or wins the job? either way makes sense to me.

 

I am not in the Howell doesn't have it category. I think he's solid at the very least but Carr is a purgatory QB (which is why I didnt want him) so unless he has the potential to grow a great deal a la Brees despite the height issues, I'll want to move on. Glad we have the whole season to find out (if he can stay healthy). 

[The Consigliere]

On 10/21/2023 at 6:48 AM, Going Commando said:

 

I think we're going to get to eight wins or so.  Preseason, I didn't expect the coaching to be so bad TBF, including on offense.  But especially not from Rivera and Del Rio.  We're 3-3 but could easily be 1-5 if not for some lucky breaks against Atlanta and Denver.  We're going to spend the whole season battling just to stay .500.  If we stay relatively healthy, we can do it, but a few key injuries could kill us and leave us with five or six wins.

 

I'm not talking about finishing top 2 for Williams/Maye. I'm talking about trading up for one of them.  Williams is probably going #1, but Maye's stock is softer and I think he'll be up for sale.  We get a new GM and HC in here and they make a big trade to get Maye and I'll be happy.  It's the strongest move we could make to secure our future IMO, because it'd form a rock solid QB-HC marriage and give ourselves the clearest organizational direction possible.

Nah, basically if teams went all out in every game going forward, and we didnt see potential tank games in December or playoff teams resting starters we basically have a ceiling of 2-3 more wins this year. The only reason it's more is if teams deliberately quit on us. It's a murderous schedule. Even the crap teams are all road trips (New England, LA Rams, Jets QB, if not the team), save for the Giants game. 

 

Vegas was right to set the over under where they did 6.5 if memory serves because the ceiling was alwasy probably 7-8, and the floor was probably always 4-5. I think we're 4-9 or 5-8 when we head into the final 4 games which could turn on outside factors in terms of how much effort to win is put in by the opponents. In a QB class like this, the Rams and Jets could tank those, while the cowboys and niners could potentially rest guys to stay healthy. But if none of those things happened, we'd likely get swept in all four games. The only reason we have a chance against the Jets is their idiocy at QB. 

[Warhead36]

If the new GM/HC both believe in Howell and everyone is on the same page committed to his development, then I'm okay with it too.

 

What has plagued this franchise is going after QBs when not everyone was all in on them. And other then RG3 lets be honest none of them were real blue chip type prospects.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

 

Any metric that says the OL is responsible for 12 sacks (regardless of time frame) so far this year, even through only six weeks, is an absolute joke.

 

And yes, I'd be saying the same thing for REDACTED or Wentz... This OL is bad and I'm tired of people pretending it's not.

 

That doesn't mean that we don't have a QB problem, OC problem or receiver problem. 

[The Consigliere]

On 10/21/2023 at 8:38 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree. 

 

QBs in the draft who are billed as potentially elite don't get traded.  Only shot at this unless there is something I am missing is if the Bears end up with both the #1 and #2.   And in that case they likely can make a deal with a team that is picking top 7 give or take so why would they want to trade with a team likely picking 12-15ish?   

 

Maybe if they lost to the Giants this FO will be open to trading Sweat or young and they get a high pick that can be used later?  But otherwise even if the Bears end up with both picks, if feels like a long shot.

 

So I am not putting much thought into the trading up for Maye bucket because it seems like such a long shot.   And that's not even factoring Howell's trajectory.  If Howell keeps flashing, you got me why this team would want to trade the moon for Maye -- but again even if they wanted to it feels like a wild long shot.

 

Granted this team could collapse but as much as I was down on this team's off season, I don't expect them to suck, I am still sticking to another so so season.

 

 

 

 

I think the only way we end up in the teens is if those last 4 December games get thrown by teams for tanking position, or playoff rest. Barring that, we probably finish in that 6-12 zone, rather than 12-16 like it's been mostly under Ron.

 

This team can barely hold up with a health OL, imagine how bad it will be with an unhealthy one, the D has been god awful at times despite a gazillion heavy investments. 

 

You look at that schedule pre-bye:

Philly looking to lock things down, 

road trip to a stabilized or imploding NE (this I give a .5 win because of how awful they are)

roadie out west to Seattle strikes me as an autoloss.

followed by a home game against the giants (I have this as a win)

then short week trip to Dallas which is a loss.

long week before hosting Miami who will have Achane back at that point. 

 

That looks scary as hell, two winnable games to me, the nebulous Seattle roadie (they can lay eggs, but traveling out West aint fun, and DK should be good at that point, and JSN just blew up yesterday).

 

I tend to give us 1.5 wins in those 6 games for a record of 4-9 or 5-8. 

 

I just think the way things are set up, we'll be imploding by the bye. Which, maybe sets up for a total collapse, or maybe sets up for a set of 4 like '98, where the team ran off a bunch of meaningless wins late. 

 

Not sure.

 

But I do think it's largely hopeless. Only thing that gives me pause is Philly, Seattle and Miami all have games where they're mentally, seemingly off, and 2 of those 3 are at home, so anything could happen but Vegas will have us as dogs for 5 out of 6 of those. 

[Redskins 2021]

I like Howell, but with a new gm and head coach plus a high draft pick he is probably out.

 

 I don't know if I would do that but I suspect the new coach and gm will want there own guys.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Any metric that says the OL is responsible for 12 sacks (regardless of time frame) so far this year, even through only six weeks, is an absolute joke.

 

And yes, I'd be saying the same thing for REDACTED or Wentz... This OL is bad and I'm tired of people pretending it's not.

 

That doesn't mean that we don't have a QB problem, OC problem or receiver problem. 

 

I agree.  It feels like a hot take from PFF to an extent to get attention because overall these guys aren't getting hot grades in pass blocking on their own metrics -- and i also heard one of their anaylists pontifcate about how sacks are often on the QB but pressures are a better metric to judge O lineman -- yet PFF assigns a ton of pressures to this unit.  So it doesn't really add up even on their own terms.

 

8 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I think the only way we end up in the teens is if those last 4 December games get thrown by teams for tanking position, or playoff rest. Barring that, we probably finish in that 6-12 zone, rather than 12-16 like it's been mostly under Ron.

 

 

Could be so after Sunday.  I wasn't high on them this season.  It felt to me like an 8-9 season after a lackluster off season.  I still feel its that kind of roster but their coaching has been bad so its in play for me that they underachieve.

 

As to who they beat going forward?  Maybe the Rams, Giants, Pats.   But they can also lose to all of them.  They tend to steal an unexpected win every season so if that goes true to form, then I'd guess they end up 6-11.  Maybe 7-10.  My gut now ranges from 6-11 to 7-10. 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

On 10/21/2023 at 9:50 AM, Conn said:

Why would you think Rivera’s FO guys are pretty talented? The roster has huge holes (understatement) and they don’t take advantage of many roster-building tools that great FO’s do. The first people we replace (besides Rivera) need to be the GM and VP of Player Personnel types. And then they can evaluate absolutely everything on the football side of the organization. 
 

Hurney and Mayhew are not remotely analytics guys, and I doubt they’re in Harris’s ear about anything specific at this point. They work for Rivera, and Harris probably gets reports and has meetings with all our top level guys as he learns the operation and how it’s currently operating. But they aren’t decision-makers, at best they collaborate with Rivera who technically has final say. 

 

All in on that. Since Ron took over there have been numerous opportunities to make trade downs, trade outs, and lord knows I screamed bloody murder to either take a QB in '20 or '21 or trade for ammunition to grab a QB in the next quality classes (which were '21, '23, and '24). They literally never did this EVER. Instead they continued to make defensive luxury picks and reaches that people tried real hard to justify because they didn't want to be negative literally the second after the pick was made, the old classic "grading drafts the day after is stupid" takes freely floated instead of people owning that whats being grade is perceived value, not talent, and how effective you were at acrruing value. Sometimes these grades end up being wrong (while the Texans may have gotten kinda swindled last april in terms of cost, they got a franchise QB and what appears to be a franchise caliber DL, franchise changing assets), sometimes right, but I think it's safe to say at this point that not going QB in '20 was stupid, that the '21 selection was a waste, that the '22 selection was not great, and that the '23 selection was castrophically stupid (in terms of firsts).

 

I think the FO has been basically average according to drafting metrics the past decade plus, oddly better on day 3 than average, I think and worse on day 1 and day 2 second rounders. I think there's probably talent in the scouting department, but I've always been pretty skeptical of some of the higher ups. I fear the owner will just want names, instead of what he should want, which is to take a deep, long long, organization long, at how the various teams FO's have handled the draft, FA, and trades to better team build, and find his candidates from that stack. The fact that we could potentially poach some eagles guys is absolutely fine with me. I can't say I love everything they do, but I love their flexibiility, their willingness to make major asset moves to team build in the present and the future. They are "chess" players these days, taking advantage when assets fall in their lap, like last spring, while we, having Gonzalez fall in our lap, did the opposite, and in their case also making moves to build a golden loom of assets. They stole Swift for peanuts after all, a HUGE asset for a team that had let their top RB walk and had little on the roster, but they didn't trade for him in the offseason market, they waited for the Lions to torpedo his value on draft day before thieving him. HUGE move. 

 

Anyway, hopefully we don't do the "name" thing and instead look for real genuine answers, and not dinosaurs. I appreciate what Ron did in fumigating the franchise of low character idiots, and the base level stench of Snyder to slowly begin the process of making our franchise more palatable not only to players, but also to coaches and FO men. That, if nothing else, is the pay off of his hiring several years ago. This offseason w/his fumigation done and new ownership, coaches and F.O's guys and scouts that would have avoided us in the past, may just sign on. 

[The Consigliere]

19 hours ago, KDawg said:

Today did nothing for my opinion on Howell.

 

It did, however, reinforce my OL position, weaken EB’s stock and weaken our receivers and tight ends stock except 17.

Just looking through some mocks lazily you get the same kind of feel pretty consistently. 

In the top 12-15:

QB's: 2-3, occasionally 4

OT's: 3-4

 

Because of where we're likely to pick, we can justifiably take an OL at slot, and have it not be any kind of big reach, QB is more complicated as there is wildly divergent opinions on QB's 3-5 in the draft, with some having a total of 3-4 in round 1 and some having just 2.

 

Basically, we're out of range of the top 2 unless the Bears lock down both picks. After that, we can swing for the fences at QB, or take a player thats typically ranked top 3-9 overall of all players that aren't QB. So we can get ourselves a legit OT prospect, no question, if we want to, and the depth is there to justify taking a swing or trading up in round 2 as well at the position. It will be interesting to see what the new regime tries to do. Trade up to top 2 Or sign a solid to above average OL for above desired price in FA, and draft one or two, and hope that can give Howell something to work with it as we evaluate him in '24. Real interesting offseason. The D we spent so much to construct will fall apart having accomplished nothing of note unless Howell hits, btw, that's a certainty. 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

If the new GM/HC both believe in Howell and everyone is on the same page committed to his development, then I'm okay with it too.

 

What has plagued this franchise is going after QBs when not everyone was all in on them. And other then RG3 lets be honest none of them were real blue chip type prospects.

 

I don't think so. I think they went in on QB in ---- classes w/---- QB prospects, and avoided them most times they were quality classes. Did we go after QB in the loaded '04 class? Nope, we waited until '05 in the horror show class. Did we go after Brees at the end of round 1 in '01 or Ramsey at the end of round 1 the following year? Did we go after QB in the perceived loaded '17, '18, '20, '21, and '23 classes? No, we targeted the only classes that were crap, and understood to be crap going in across those 7 years, '19 and '22. 

 

It didn't matter who was in or not on Shuler. He sucked and was always gonna suck. 

It didn't matter who was in or not on Ramsey, he sucked and was always gonna suck.

It didn't matter who was in or not on Campbell, he sucked and was always gonna suck.

It didn't matter who was in or not on RGIII after we broke him, seems like he was always gonna suck after that (and maybe would have with or without the injury).

It didn't matter who was in or not on Haskins, he sucked, and was always gonna suck. 

 

There isn't a could have been amongst any of these guys w/the possible exception of RGIII. Shuler, Frerotte, Ramsey, Campbell, and Haskins all had their shots here, and on other teams and none of them did a damn thing worthy of note anywhere. The best of them were replacement level, below average QB's (Campbell), the worst were not even startable (Shuler, Ramsey, Haskins), and RGIII was whatever the hell he was.

 

Howell is an open question, but we are actively breaking him with the line he has to work with. I tend to trust analytics so I don't know what to think of PFF's evaluation other than to wonder if it's as off on our OL as its periodically off in its prospect analysis. I've watched a couple of games, w/a 7 year old, and what not, I don't get to see enough, and my middling at best talent for OL scouting simply suggested that the OL sucks. Does Howell suck too? I found an article last week from 3 years ago or 2 years ago, forget which, discussing all the sacks he was taking at UNC, so there's no question some of this is him, but if you have a line as bereft of talent as ours is, its flat out impossible to believe that they're top 10 at pass blocking the league when #1 a bunch of them were perceived as nothings going into the season and #2 they're setting a record pace in sacks given up in a season regardless of how much time Howell likes to hold onto the ball (and considering how much time he has before he gets touched, I don't think the argument that they're fine, is remotely justifiable. 

 

Anyway, I think it's all nebulous going in right now because we're not bad enough to draft top 2, and we'll basically be QB speculating otherwise. The OL FA class looks like it has a touch of talent, but not a lot that's special. I'm pretty skeptical of any clarity coming in the short term barring a wild RGIII styled trade up on draft day (which only happens if Carolina and Chicago lands 1, 2. 

[MrJL]

People talking about Howell being replaced by a high draft pick next year. Unless we totally overhaul the line in free agency that high pick may as well be playing behind an expansion  team's  line

[mh86]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Howell is an open question, but we are actively breaking him with the line he has to work with. I tend to trust analytics so I don't know what to think of PFF's evaluation other than to wonder if it's as off on our OL as its periodically off in its prospect analysis. I've watched a couple of games, w/a 7 year old, and what not, I don't get to see enough, and my middling at best talent for OL scouting simply suggested that the OL sucks. Does Howell suck too? 

It’s criminal how bad this OL is. I’ve watched them let free rushers pass. Watched as three blocked one guy while another runs past. I’ve seen them miss block after block as soon as the ball is snapped. Howell holds the ball too long at times, but he’s not the biggest issue here.

What is our coaching staff doing to help either of these issues? Have we benched starters to see if someone else can do a better job? Have we changed up the running game or added screens / rollouts? 
 

Hey coaches, do your job.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree.  It feels like a hot take from PFF to an extent to get attention because overall these guys aren't getting hot grades in pass blocking on their own metrics -- and i also heard one of their anaylists pontifcate about how sacks are often on the QB but pressures are a better metric to judge O lineman -- yet PFF assigns a ton of pressures to this unit.  So it doesn't really add up even on their own terms.

 

 

Could be so after Sunday.  I wasn't high on them this season.  It felt to me like an 8-9 season after a lackluster off season.  I still feel its that kind of roster but their coaching has been bad so its in play for me that they underachieve.

 

As to who they beat going forward?  Maybe the Rams, Giants, Pats.   But they can also lose to all of them.  They tend to steal an unexpected win every season so if that goes true to form, then I'd guess they end up 6-11.  Maybe 7-10.  My gut now ranges from 6-11 to 7-10. 

 

I tend to think of 7-10 as a ceiling rather than an expectation simply because of the difficulty of the schedule and because of how the bye lines up. The bye basically sets us up for the final 4 games. That could be helpful if the Rams, and Jets are entirely out of the hunt, and if the Cowboys or SF rest guys, but otherwise, it could be a scenario where the Rams and Jets are fighting like mad for playoff slot 6 or 7 or whatever. Before that we've got a couple of crappy and mediocre teams on the horizon, but other than the Giants, they're all roadies. So I tend to think we're probably screwed going into the bye. We've got 1-2 more wins in our next 6 games. 

 

I do agree w/you though, w/the talent, and Howell's ability and that front four, technically, we can pull off a shock here or there, if our D showed up or if Howell had time to throw. Seattle isn't good, they're just "okay," the Giants are ----, New England is god awful, the Rams are somewhat hollowed out, but still have enough talent to be dangerous, everything on the Jets is high end other than their absolute horse ---- QB, so, it's technically possible we could string together a couple of wins over wishy washy sides, and actually end up with 9. It's absolutely possible. But when I look at how healthy the team is in so many key areas, I'm skeptical. Howell can and probably will get hurt. The OL will sustain injuries, maybe cluster injuries later, and this is a team that probably can't handle any injuries w/o imploding entirely: OL, DL, and Howell. A bad OL that loses what's left, what does that become? The only position group that is competent on the D, the DL, takes injuries and just how bad could that D be? Howell it goes w/o saying.

 

We'll see though, usually its' easy to get a feel for a season and know when it's a floor season. I knew we'd be horrible in 2003, and 2004, no way to turn that around, same in 2008-2011. It was patently obvious. But in this case, a good to great DL, some talent in the secondary, a couple of good pass catchers, and competent RB's and in Howell a league average QB probably with time to pass? That is confusing as hell, what could it be? On a good day, w/some luck, they probably could genuinely win 5 or 6 of the final 10. But with any injuries at all to key areas, and I think it's more likely 1-3 more wins. 

 

What is interesting is Vegas tends to nail us on over/unders. Periodically they're wrong, 2005, 2007, 2012, 2015. But they've been right virtually all of the other seasons in the past 20 or so years. This year I think they were at 6.5, and before the season, I was a hold, I wasn't betting that because I had us at a ceiling of 7-8 wins, a floor of 4-5, and an expectation of 6. I tend to only grab lines when I disagree by 2.5 or more. 

 

Gonna be interesting to see. Psychology is an interesting piece too, if they lose the Patriots roadie, they'll probably be 3-8 or 4-7 at best before the beat down on thanksgiving. How do players then react after that? Not sure. But they'll be facing a high flying Miami team (If Achane and Tua and Hill can stay healthy) after that, and then the bye, how hungry are they after that when the coaching staff is two steps from the end of the plank w/a new ownership group? Maybe not very. 

Edited October 23, 2023 by The Consigliere

[Koolblue13]

We have a buffoon running the offense and cast off Olinmen.

 

It'd be funny if Brissett came in and when those blockers get destroyed, he just throws it in the ground over and over.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Do teams really rest guys any longer with the one bye/three wild card playoff? 

 

It seems like everyone is in the hunt and the seeding are chaos until the last game these days. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[Ball Security]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

If you are growing as a team, play Stromberg and Paul (and Lucas because he’s better than what they trot out there).