The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Conn]

8 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Saying he is harder to defend is short term thinking now? 
 

You want the one that’s easier to defend cause…..?

No, that particular argument is basically a dog whistle to the people who say that defensive coaches generally prefer running QB’s because they personally scare them more in regular season gameplanning. It’s a well-known trope. So saying that the HC (who was a DC) would prefer the guy that would scare him the most in year 1 is not giving our decision-making group enough credit, is my only point. Any elite passer is automatically the hardest player on the field to defend. Obviously a smart decision-making group would prioritize drafting whoever they believe that will be—and weigh whether that’s in year 1, or year 2, or whatever. But yeah the dumb “former defensive coordinators tend to favor the guy who would scare them in game prep right now” is a long-standing argument and the implication is that for a guy like Quinn, it would be weighted heavier than long term potential as a passer. It’s just not giving our organization’s acquisition of a real GM enough credit. It’s poor reasoning whether we end up taking Daniels or not. If we take Daniels, it’ll be because Peters is betting that he becomes an elite passer longterm—not because Quinn thinks he’s the hardest to defend right now.

Edited April 19 by Conn

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

Well here's a pretty terrifying article on Daniels that, imho, should slam the door shut on any desire to take JD5 at #2.  It's pretty long, with lots of data, so I won't copy the whole thing here, but even the last two paragraphs will produce nightmares:

 

https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/jayden-daniels-looks-hauntingly-familiar

Jayden Daniels Looks Hauntingly Familiar

 Robert Schmitz | April 16th, 2024

 

[excerpt]

 

Mariota, like Fields, appears on basically every list with Daniels. He scrambled from a clean pocket at an above average rate (though not as often as Daniels and Fields), scrambled at an above average rate overall (again not quite as often as Daniels and Fields), targeted MOF less often than those two, and like Daniels was an overly conservative deep passer. His NFL career is a tale of maddening inconsistency as he looked like a surefire star early on only to see his career disintegrate under a parade of turn downs, hits, sacks, fumbles, and injuries. A QB who takes too many sacks and won’t take chunk plays over the middle of the field but also won’t compensate by pushing the ball vertically is just not a very valuable NFL starter, unfortunately. 

 

In the end, comps in the NFL Draft are a valuable tool — there are only so many ways to operate at the quarterback position and it is likely we have seen similar versions of players before. It’s important however that these comps be grounded in data and reality, and when you do so it’s obvious that we have seen players like Jayden Daniels before, just not in the form of a guy like the reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. Daniels slots much more comfortably into the archetype established by guys like Marcus Mariota and Justin Fields, and if you’re not comfortable with the likelihood of ending up with the next version of those guys, I’d say Jayden Daniels may not be the top 10 QB pick for you. 

 

I want Maye but those comps mean nothing to me about either player.  I've gotten into the Fields comparisons before in another post.   Just like the negaive comps of Maye I read among others Zach Wilson.  The big one with Maye is Daniel Jones, heck one of the scouts in McGinn's story came back to that analogy.  My son who knows am a big Maye guy, and he spends too much time reading twitter about the draft, asked me the other day at the dinner table but isn't Maye Daniel Jones?  He knows I hated Daniel Jones before the draft, so lol I shot that down quick.

 

I'd add if there were magical metrics to give the right answer, that dude would make millions.  The PFF guys even joke about how their metrics have failed them even though at one point they had hope.

 

 

Edited April 19 by Skinsinparadise

[Ghost of]

12 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

Well here's a pretty terrifying article on Daniels that, imho, should slam the door shut on any desire to take JD5 at #2.  It's pretty long, with lots of data, so I won't copy the whole thing here, but even the last two paragraphs will produce nightmares:

 

https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/jayden-daniels-looks-hauntingly-familiar

Jayden Daniels Looks Hauntingly Familiar

 

[excerpt]

Dude I posted that and said to the whole group on the thread that the discussion was over, the debate is settled, the science is in, etc.

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I want Maye but those comps mean nothing to me about either player.  I've gotten into the Fields comparisons before in another post.   Just like the negaive comps of Maye I read among others Zach Wilson.  The big one with Maye is Daniel Jones, heck one of the scouts in McGinn's story came back to that analogy.  My son who knows am a big Maye guy, and he spends too much time reading twitter about the draft, asked me the other day at the dinner table but isn't Maye Daniel Jones?  He knows I hated Daniel Jones before the draft, so lol I shot that down quick.

 

I'd add if there were magical metrics to give the right answer, that dude would make millions.  The PFF guys even joke about how their metrics have failed them even though at one point they had hope.

 

 

The comps aren't based on eye test they're based on the metrics. Here's something--has anyone just done simple regression to see if some base measures (or set of measures given a score) correlate to busting? I'm more concerned with avoiding the obvious busts. And the argument being made isn't "P2S RATIO!" in and of itself but a combination of measures that are alarming and place Daniels in a very weird spot with a long list of failures (of late) in the NFL.  And even things in the article that I already posted a couple days ago--breaking down his running and showing it's good, but not quite at the same level as other players, especially when you consider that he will likely take big hits to get extra yards.  That's why the Mariota comparison is being made (partially), not just because of middle of the field stuff but even yards after contact, and other measures they used.

 

I will say I went to the 2020 analysis and Herbert's advanced passing to multiple areas of the field was trash (comparatively) to Tua but also this year's picks. Like really bad competlion and on-target %. But I will say they thought Hurts should be taken more seriously as well, so they didn't bomb it exactly.

Edited April 19 by Ghost of

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

Dude I posted that and said to the whole group on the thread that the discussion was over, the debate is settled, the science is in, etc.

The comps aren't based on eye test they're based on the metrics.

 

I know they are based on metrics.  When I am watching PFF guys among others make fun of the idea that their own metrics haven't helped them exceed the crap shoot game at QB.  At one point they thought it would but it hasn't and they laughed about it in a draft show i watched -- I appreciated their humility.

 

On the other extreme, I got the Football Outsiders guy claim that his metrics nailed Mahomes among others and claims Daniels > Maye.  Ditto Warren Sharp.

 

I don't find some full consensus that the metrics favor one player over another and even if it did -- I don't believe the anayltics crowd have cracked the code at QB. 

[Hooper]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

lol, speaking of McGinn.  For me, I said weeks ago.  For the people here that suggest Schefter (scouts), Breer, (scouts), Keim (coaches) are being lied to and played about who they think is better. To me that's emotional nonsense. I've talked draft here for almost two decades.  And the talk about Daniels is just different here from the past, I think its likely RG3 PTS.  I don't ever recall anyone saying many scouts with no skin in the game are just lying nonstop to reporters for kicks or that some of the smarter reporters in the league are just dupes who are getting played.

 

Look I am not talking about rumors.  I am not talking about the NE FO telling Schefter hey I think Daniels is better in hopes that Maye falls to them.   These are teams who aren't taking QBs who as Keim likes to say, ditto Schefter when they throw their opinions around based on sources, these are sources they've trusted before.  These aren't new reporters having first time coversations with people they've never discussed things before with.

 

Cooley and a bunch of other smart people that we've lauded before on other takes like O'Sullivan from the QB school love Daniels.  I don't think they are fanboy idiots.

 

I don't mean its emotional to like or not like a player, that's cool.  Someone can think Daniels sucks. And look I am totally on the band that is worried about Daniels' durability.  But am not on the band that he's "meh" as a player and Maye is miles and miles better albiet I do like Maye better.

 

And yeah look I've had takes on players that are different than the masses, I do now, too.  But I don't assume the masses in the draft world are lying because my prowess as an evaluator is so out of this world that anyone who doesn't see things as I do has to be either a liar or a complete idiot. 

 

And we know at a minimum that this FO doesn't see the choice as some big joke.  They wouldn't take it this far if they did.  Peters was lauded as one of the better evaluators in the league at the time of the hire, most were giddy abut the hire.  Some on this very thread were praising him as an elite evaluator as recent as a few weeks ago -- now he's being question by that same person among others as potentially not being good at his job.  So while I appreciate some hard takes by some -- for me is a bridge too far if we are that sure of ourselves for the hardest positiion to judge in sports and mind you a spot that we've all got royally wrong before and came at it back then with the same level of conviction that this time our conviction is absolutely right.

 

I've done QB evaluations like others here for eons.  And I've put in more time this year than any year by far.  I've gotten some good ones right.  Heck I even got praised by some here for my QB evaluations.  But I also got some royally wrong of course.  And the more I do it the less confident I get in it -- not more confident, less.  I felt good hearing O'Sullivan make the same point and I praised him for his humility even though he does QB evaluations online for a living and is really good at it and goes deeper on that front than QB evaulation than any I've read on the board.  There is so much we don't know about these guys that youtube videos don't answer.

 

For me the most confident I am is picking QBs who can't play versus can play.  I got a decent record with that.  Not perfect.  And IMHO both Maye and Daniels pass my eye test on that front.  Both IMO look accurate on all levels and are good decision makes.  Maye needs to improve on the first level.  Daniels needs to throw more with antcipation.  They both need to improve but I don't see any of the red flags I've seen with Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Trubisky. 

 

But anyway that's me.  As for scouts and bringing this back to McGinn, I says weeks back I'd wait for that if I am going to entertain the flat earth theory that all these scouts from other teams are playing Schefter, Breer, etc.  And dudes some of us trusted in the past who make QB evaluations are off their rocker and just falling to group think -- including people like Cooley who doesn't pay attention at all to draft media and O' Sullivan who takes pride on ignoring group think and getting into the meat of the subject -- among other people doing evaluations.

 

For me, I would need to hear from McGinn's scouts. Not because they are perfect and don't get things wrong.  But because they are predictive.  These people are simply a series of people who work in FOs around the league and plenty of times these guys have a different take about players than the draft media.  They already do on the first 2 positions they assessed.  

 

In short, I just read those takes and they echo BOTH QBs are likely studs.  Same position that some of us here espouse, but many don't.  And look I am not arguing that those who are down on Daniels should be high on him.  I don't agree with all these guys assessements on players.  I didn't agree with all of them on the WRs which I read yesterdsy.  But I don't think person after person is lying to McGinn, Schefter, Breer on and on.  That feels absurd.  I do think those that prefer Daniels genuinely do.  I don't think its a lie.

 

But yeah to the people here who think we are in a good spot no matter what and who we take as to Maye-Daniels, they'd enjoy reading about both dudes.  I am wondering if I should post it because I know some will go ape including the typical rants about the scouts McGinn talks too are idiots.  I think part of it is the scouts he talked to weren't always in love with the players we took over the years.  Some were brutal on Haskins.  Some thought Dotson more or less belonged in the 2nd not first.  Mixed on Jamin Davis, etc.  So if we wanted to feel the love on our draft picks, it wasn't the place to go.

 

But one thing I can count on with these takes is if they slam a player they like or say something people don't like -- some kill the messenger.  That's a guarantee.     The messanger is both me for posting it and typically whatever outlier position is made in the mix from that negative scout, that's the one that gets attention and people use to paint the aggregate take to ridicule the aggregate take.  So it can be 90% praise but the 10% hit is what people harp on to discredit the whole thing.  But people can discredit it all they want, McGinn's top 100 often beats the mock drafts top 100 as to what ACTUALLY happens on draft day for a reason. 

'

 

This is one of the best posts I have ever read on the board. And I have been posting on and off forever. 

 

Would love for you to share the takes from McGinn's scouts on Maye, Daniels, and Penix if you can.

 

And if you can't... well your post says so much so right that I can stop posting and get some actual work done before the draft.

 

Hail!

 

 

[zCommander]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

It’s wild to me that we legitimately have folks in their basement that think they are better suited as general managers than guys who have ate, slept, and played football since they were embryos.  The delusion is unreal.

 

Why you tryin' to offend me man, that's not cool man. 

 

[Hooper]

Found this on reddit while looking for the McGinn stuff. Fun read no matter who you prefer.

 

 

[Chump Bailey]

Sorry if posted previously: JT O'Sullivan's Top 4 

 

No. 1: Caleb Williams
No. 2: Jayden Daniels
No. 3: J.J. McCarthy
No. 4: Drake Maye

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, Hooper said:

 

This is one of the best posts I have ever read on the board. And I have been posting on and off forever. 

 

Would love for you to share the takes from McGinn's scouts on Maye, Daniels, and Penix if you can.

 

And if you can't... well your post says so much so right that I can stop posting and get some actual work done before the draft.

 

Hail!

 

 

 

Thanks this is sort of the summary below.  People tend to overreact to the negative things said.  Here things have gotten so monolithic about both QBs that i think it will piss some people off.  But they always talk about upside and downside.  I am gathering that's how scouts roll -- its not all love or all hate but what's the full picture.  And of course not every scout-every team sees the world the same way.  

 

And the downside from my past experience with posting stuff like this -- it drives some fans of the players nuts and then I get all the diatribes about McGinn is a bad dude and how idiotic scouts are or dishonest and implications that a few on this board while we don't claim to be GMs and say we are aren't professionals but we also suggest that the professionals aren't really that good so in effect we are defacto smarter than them so hint hint we indeed should be running a FO, etc.

 

So it makes a bit of a miserable ride for me.    Never fun to post things and get blasted for the post.    So selfishly I'll post this part for now.  I'll consider the rest.  But I know if I post the positive and negative takes -- some of the pro Maye people will cling to the positive and clown on the negative and some of the Daniels people would do the reverse.  Feels like though we've swung weeks back to some of the Daniels people going to an extreme on the subject to now a hard turn the other way as to the extreme for Maye.

 

Personally, I am good with either one albiet prefer Maye.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19 by Skinsinparadise

[HigSkin]

Something interesting Keim said on his recent podcast with Bram.  People he's talked to say JD prefers Washington or Minnesota because of the coaching staff.  I had not heard that he had a preference other the the rumors of him wanting to go to the Raiders.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Something interesting Keim said on his recent podcast with Bram.  People he's talked to say JD prefers Washington or Minnesota because of the coaching staff.  I had not heard that he had a preference other the the rumors of him wanting to go to the Raiders.

 

 Agree it was an interesting tidbit, posted it when I heard it.  Keim still doesn't seem to have a good feel for who they take aside from him thinking its not McCarthy.

Edited April 19 by Skinsinparadise

[FootballZombie]

I blame fantasy football for these entitled takes.

 

People getting big heads thinking they could have gone pro.

You never blew out your knee. If your so nice, go get paid big $$$ for you takes.

 

 

The below joke is from Chase Daniels playing days but is also apt as to his scouting

 

/possible large amounts of sarcasm

[jg77]

Anyone see the Tom Pelissero piece on NFL.com this morning? It's pretty good 

[CommanderInTheRye]

11 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

🫣

 

 

 

 

Yikes!

 

That's a motley crew to be associated with, if I ever saw one. lol

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Yikes!

 

That's a motley crew to be associated with, if I ever saw one. lol

That's one of my issues as well. Daniels fails like every advanced metric.

 

Maye has his plusses and positives, but his advanced metrics come out very favorably. Its just a question of whether you can polish and clean up his issues.

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree.

 

A.  I got no fear that Quinn is making the call.  It's clearly Peters

 

B.  I got no feat they are taking the QB who they feel is inferior just to win more games this year.

 

Zero, Nada, Zip.

 

Agree but I hope it's Peters just like you and a host on this forum.  Others will disagree and that is understood.    

4 minutes ago, jg77 said:

Anyone see the Tom Pelissero piece on NFL.com this morning? It's pretty good 

Care to elaborate, please.    

[Dah-Dee]

47 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I want Maye but those comps mean nothing to me about either player.  I've gotten into the Fields comparisons before in another post.   Just like the negaive comps of Maye I read among others Zach Wilson.  The big one with Maye is Daniel Jones, heck one of the scouts in McGinn's story came back to that analogy.  My son who knows am a big Maye guy, and he spends too much time reading twitter about the draft, asked me the other day at the dinner table but isn't Maye Daniel Jones?  He knows I hated Daniel Jones before the draft, so lol I shot that down quick.

 

I'd add if there were magical metrics to give the right answer, that dude would make millions.  The PFF guys even joke about how their metrics have failed them even though at one point they had hope.

 

I get it on the metrics being quite fallible. I'm just saying that together with what we already know about Daniels (slight frame, will take big hits), this article results in way too many flashing red lights on Daniels to suit my comfort level on risk. At this point, with the info we have, for me it's pretty clear that the potential-bust warnings on Daniels greatly outnumber those for Maye.

 

I've said before and still think Daniels is fantastic, love watching him play, just want to watch him... at a distance. Like in Minnesota. Whether we draft him or not though, I'll hope for LSU-type highlights and an injury-free career.

[mistertim]

20 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

Sorry if posted previously: JT O'Sullivan's Top 4 

 

No. 1: Caleb Williams
No. 2: Jayden Daniels
No. 3: J.J. McCarthy
No. 4: Drake Maye

 

I actually really enjoy J.T.'s film breakdown and analyses, but he kinda sucks at predictions. Here were some gems of his past lists

 

2020:

1. Tua
2. Jake Fromm
3. Jordan Love
4. Nate Stanley
5. Anthony Gordon
6. Jalen Hurts
7. Justin Herbert

2021:

1. Justin Fields
2. Trevor Lawrence
3. Trey Lance
4. Zach Wilson
5. Kellen Mond
6. Mac Jones

[Dah-Dee]

18 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Something interesting Keim said on his recent podcast with Bram.  People he's talked to say JD prefers Washington or Minnesota because of the coaching staff.  I had not heard that he had a preference other the the rumors of him wanting to go to the Raiders.

 

Yeah, I saw that in a social media post last night but couldn't find it this morning. I was a little surprised Vegas wasn't in the mix.

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

It’s wild to me that we legitimately have folks in their basement that think they are better suited as general managers than guys who have ate, slept, and played football since they were embryos.  The delusion is unreal.

I personally don’t mind that piece too much - qb evaluation is so dang difficult and the league’s track record is shaky - as much as how entrenchment has lead some to turn on any and all sources/resources that disagree with their take, including many that we (the board) have lauded/referenced in the past.  

And the downstream effect of that entrenchment could quite possibly lead to dissatisfaction with our FO along with a focus on picking apart the rookie (if it’s not the guy the poster(s) wanted) on game days.  I hope I’m wrong about that, because that sounds like a miserable experience when we’re looking at such a long overdue, positive position in terms of the state of the franchise.  Of course, it’s human nature - it sucks to be wrong and it’s great to be right, lol.

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I actually really enjoy J.T.'s film breakdown and analyses, but he kinda sucks at predictions. Here were some gems of his past lists

 

2020:

1. Tua
2. Jake Fromm
3. Jordan Love
4. Nate Stanley
5. Anthony Gordon
6. Jalen Hurts
7. Justin Herbert

2021:

1. Justin Fields
2. Trevor Lawrence
3. Trey Lance
4. Zach Wilson
5. Kellen Mond
6. Mac Jones

That's the thing about these former player types. They focus on the now and are more worried about polished footwork and mechanics. They like low floor guys and don't take into account projection or how a guy will develop in the NFL.

 

I don't care who is better in 2024. I want the guy who can dominate from 2026-2036.

[CommanderInTheRye]

25 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Something interesting Keim said on his recent podcast with Bram.  People he's talked to say JD prefers Washington or Minnesota because of the coaching staff.  I had not heard that he had a preference other the the rumors of him wanting to go to the Raiders.

 

 

Wow! I would NEVER have guessed that. I always thought Raiders or Minnesota were his preference.

 

I haven't heard that podcast yet, great info to have. (Do you have a link for it,  if so would you post it? TIA)

 

If that report is accurate, then it makes his agent's unprofessional behavior Wednesday night all the more aggregious.

 

He is an absolute liability to Jayden's career. You praise publicly, and you argue privately. We should never have found out that they had an issue with the group interview format.

 

I would have fired him on the spot, if he represented my interests, and did that without consulting with me first.

 

Then again, if Jayden approved it, or worse, asked him to do it, he's not the guy I want leading my team.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19 by CommanderInTheRye

[Rufus T Firefly]

Okay, it’s now 99% we take Daniels.

 

 

[Warhead36]

Florio is such a joke lolol. He has no sources whatsoever. Didn't he say we were the favorites to hire Bellicheck?