The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[DJHJR86]

1 minute ago, kingdaddy said:

Given all of this how can we not give him a chance?

 

I think they are going to give him a chance, as long as Rivera & company are still here at the start of the season.  He'll have to earn the job from whatever middling vet they sign on the cheap, but I legitimately think they are going with him penciled in as QB1 into next year.

[kingdaddy]

Just now, DJHJR86 said:

 

I think they are going to give him a chance, as long as Rivera & company are still here at the start of the season.  He'll have to earn the job from whatever middling vet they sign on the cheap, but I legitimately think they are going with him penciled in as QB1 into next year.

Teaming a young QB with a SB winning OC is gonna make for a much anticipated 2023 season.....and a new owner too?????

[88Comrade2000]

You don’t just give Howell the job. He’s got to beat out whatever low tier vet we sign, in training camp/preseason.

 

If he can’t beat out that vet qb, then he shouldn’t be the day 1 qb1.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, wit33 said:

Initially when battling the masses here relating to Kirk and his salary demands was believing it wasn’t a sustainable winning model. I understood the market, I disagreed with it back then. The competent starter was demanding near the same as an elite starter 5-7 years ago. 
 

Now I believe the QB market is finally shifting.  

 

 

 

 

you've said the same year after year you believe its finally happening.  But it hasn't.

 

this year you might finally have a shot with Jimmy G and Carr because they are both damaged goods for different reasons.  So if it doesn't happen this time, when will it, considering its the perfect storm in both cases?

 

I think what you underestimate is most teams crave to be at a minimum decent  -- its tough to suck with good QB play -- the ceiling could be limited if the rest of the roster isn't good but good QB rarely results in a crap team or if it does its typically one off.

 

I know some here think coaches and FO should crave to be crappy so they can reboot.  but most teams simply don't want to reboot.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

20 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

You don’t just give Howell the job. He’s got to beat out whatever low tier vet we sign, in training camp/preseason.

 

If he can’t beat out that vet qb, then he shouldn’t be the day 1 qb1.

Nope. Name him your starter, commit to him, and let him take every starter's rep in the off season.

 

QB competitions are a waste of time and energy and never amount to anything.

[RabidFan]

4 hours ago, LetMeSeeYourWarFace21 said:

Word is that many expect the Bears will trade Justin Fields

 

I hope we have plans to try to get him. Second half of last season, he leveled all the way up. Dude is the closest Ive seen to Mike Vick running the ball, and though his passing needs some work, he has a cannon, and he can throw the ball, I just think the Bears WR core was trash, and he hesitated too much. We can bring the best out of this kid. Dude had times when he was unstoppable last year, and he's only going to get better. Go get him, or we will regret it.....  

 

How would you compare his metrics to the rook from Fl  Richardson who they say has a cannon, can run like the wind, and is raw in footwork and passing.  Chances are he'll be gone by our pick in many mocks but would you take him instead of trading assets/picks for Fields.  

 

Howell has an arm that can make all the throws, can run well and is already better as a passer.  I guess he's not the prototypical height but has a steady base to take hits running.  Do you think Fields is an upgrade?  Maybe in potential but is that worth losing a pick or two to get him?

 

How would you rank Howell, Fields, Love, Lance as the last three seem to be raw but more athletic for running and perhaps bigger arms.   I think you have to factor what is between the ears as well and Howell seems to have the edge there and also is a hard worker.

[kingdaddy]

9 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

You don’t just give Howell the job. He’s got to beat out whatever low tier vet we sign, in training camp/preseason.

 

If he can’t beat out that vet qb, then he shouldn’t be the day 1 qb1.

OK, just to play this out hypothetically, are you suggesting that if TH is retained and Howell can't beat him out in camp then TH starts? I don't mean to be a smart ass but I'm in the camp of handing Howell the job and having him get all of the 1st team reps so he can grow with the starters. Unless Howell comes in and completely has no grasp of the offense and is terrible then I'd get behind him as the starter. If we're looking for a future franchise QB then why waste time naming someone like Teddy Bridgewater or Jacoby Brissett the starter over a solid prospect like Howell? 

[wit33]

58 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

you've said the same year after year you believe its finally happening.  But it hasn't.

 

For sure, it’s the price one pays when projecting or speculating which I’ve done since the Kirk days. The difference now is believing change is actually going to take place versus “should” take place. Never been more bullish. 
 

Geno Smith is a big one for me as well, usually this type of season from this level of QB would launch him into a top 7 type deal based on, well, that’s what the market says. 
 

 

58 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

this year you might finally have a shot with Jimmy G and Carr because they are both damaged goods for different reasons.  So if it doesn't happen this time, when will it, considering its the perfect storm in both cases?

 

This is the new norm forming. We’ll see. Coaches and GMs have deceived the public and owners for a long time and have given out criminal amounts of money to QBs without much criticism from the masses because it fits within tired norms—Millionaires protecting millionaires. 

 

58 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think what you underestimate is most teams crave to be at a minimum decent  -- its tough to suck with good QB play -- the ceiling could be limited if the rest of the roster isn't good but good QB rarely results in a crap team or if it does its typically one off.

 

I agree with this and a legitimate argument— I wouldn’t at all be shocked if Jets pay $37mil and guarantee two seasons on a 4 year deal, but I don’t believe this level of QB is operating from same power position as they were 5-7 seasons ago. 
 

 

58 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know some here think coaches and FO should crave to be crappy so they can reboot.  but most teams simply don't want to reboot.

 

 

 

 

This is where I want an owner to overrule FOs and require a high hit rate when giving a great deal of cap to middling starters and receiving very little in return. The “boys club” builds an armor around incompetence based on low percentage norms. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by wit33

[Est.1974]

Still not seeing Rivera working this hard to get Bieniemy through the door to then roll with Howell. And I’ll add I really like Howell and his potential. But I’m not getting that outcome. 

[Warhead36]

4 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Still not seeing Rivera working this hard to get Bieniemy through the door to then roll with Howell. And I’ll add I really like Howell and his potential. But I’m not getting that outcome. 

Again, what's the alternative? None of the good veterans are gonna want to come here nor can we afford them with our ownership situation. And we aren't in position to draft one.

 

I'd rather work with Howell then a tomato can retread like Brisett or Trebisky. 

[zCommander]

6 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Still not seeing Rivera working this hard to get Bieniemy through the door to then roll with Howell. And I’ll add I really like Howell and his potential. But I’m not getting that outcome. 

 

Are you forgetting the draft? That is still in play as well. 

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

For sure, it’s the price one pays when projecting or speculating which I’ve done since the Kirk days. The difference now is believing change is actually going to take place versus “should” take place. Never been more bullish. 
 

 

OK I recall you coming off pretty definitive year after year.  So it sound like this time you mean it as for believing it really happens.

 

it could be will see.  i'd bet against you on this again if i was forced to bet.  But the wildcard here is Carr coming off a down year and Jimmy G doubling down on his injury history this past year -- so you have a fighting chance.

 

18 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

This is the new norm forming. We’ll see. Coaches and GMs have deceived the public and owners for a long time and have given out criminal amounts of money to QBs without much criticism from the masses because it fits within tired norms—Millionaires protecting millionaires. 

 

 

 

It's complicated i think.  Fans tend to hate "good" Qbs I've noticed because they are good enough to tease success but they aren't great enough typically to achieve major success.

 

But at the same time fans are unforgiving for crap seasons regardless of the reasons for it.

 

You might laud for example we got Case Keenum at 4% of our cap and that's a great deal -- but fans don't seem to care if that means a 7-10 season.  they will take the 9-8 playoff season over the 7-10 season -- they don't get excited about bargain QB deals unless those bargain deals results in winning.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

OK I recall you coming off pretty definitive year after year.  So it sound like this time you mean it as for believing it really happens.

 

it could be will see.  i'd bet against you on this again if i was forced to bet.  But the wildcard here is Carr coming off a down year and Jimmy G doubling down on his injury history this past year -- so you have a fighting chance.

 

Yeah, I’ll take it on the chin give it go again next off season while admitting I was wrong the previous off season lol

 

I imagine Carr and reps believe there isn’t much difference from last year to this year in terms of ability to impact a team and will attempt to negotiate off an entire career versus this last season. I love Carr at 6%, like at 8%, and hate at 10% of the cap. If he had mobility I’d be cool with 10%—not attempting to trigger a response, I know where you are at with his mobility. 

 

Geno Smith is another one I’m following. As well as what happen to Tannenhill. 
 

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

It's complicated i think.  Fans tend to hate "good" Qbs I've noticed because they are good enough to tease success but they aren't great enough typically to achieve major success.

 

But at the same time fans are unforgiving for crap seasons regardless of the reasons for it.

 

You might laud for example we got Case Keenum at 4% of our cap and that's a great deal -- but fans don't seem to care if that means a 7-10 season.  they will take the 9-8 playoff season over the 7-10 season -- they don't get excited about bargain QB deals unless those bargain deals results in winning.

Very complicated and nuanced, no way claiming it to be crystal clear or there being a right way. 

QB salary in relationship to the cap and overall team building seems to be much more discussed and becoming more common knowledge than it was 5-7 years ago. 
 

I like the cheaper less entitled QB because it allows the team to continue swinging for another guy. 

[CapsSkins]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Still not seeing Rivera working this hard to get Bieniemy through the door to then roll with Howell. And I’ll add I really like Howell and his potential. But I’m not getting that outcome. 

 

The best thing for Bieniemy's HC chances would be saying "I developed a young 2nd year / first-year starter 5th round QB* with good raw skills into a polished high-level starter".

 

*I don't want to play the "he's not a real 5th round pick" game. I mostly agree with that, but from a narrative standpoint, the fact remains and it's better for EB to sell himself as a young QB whisperer who doesn't need a 1st round guy to turn talent into performance.

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Still not seeing Rivera working this hard to get Bieniemy through the door to then roll with Howell. And I’ll add I really like Howell and his potential. But I’m not getting that outcome. 

I think you are tremendously undervaluing Sam Howell.

[CapsSkins]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

I have a feeling Payne may be out the door. No reason other than educated guesswork. He has a big number that can be used on a couple of people that help the OL.

 

Obada, Ridgeway and Mathis help fill in for Payne as much as we’ll miss him if we let him go. 
 

But the key to winning is the offense. Sacrificing Payne, now that we have a legit offensive coordinator, may be the calculated maneuver. 
 

We’ll see. But I can bet we’re going to be upgrading the O and if there is a budget I’d expect Payne’s money to be going elsewhere.

 

We shall see for sure. Ron has talked about having a strong 1-2 punch up front on DL the way he had Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei I believe in Carolina. The parallel of course being Allen and Payne here.

 

But that could be coachspeak. I'll say this: if we have to choose between keeping Daron Payne and keeping Kam Curl, I'm keeping Curl.

[Est.1974]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think you are tremendously undervaluing Sam Howell.

Not really. I’ve been in on Howell since we drafted him. More like I’m questioning Rivera’s approach.

[Command The 414]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Still not seeing Rivera working this hard to get Bieniemy through the door to then roll with Howell. And I’ll add I really like Howell and his potential. But I’m not getting that outcome. 

Not comparing the 2 at all let me say that from the jump, but the Chiefs rolled out w/Mahomes his 2nd season and let’s be honest not only us as NFL fans but I bet even Reid & Co. didn’t expect him to be as good as he is (arguably the best QB in the NFL)  and other then going down the route of another high end FA like Carr or Jimmy G (who I would rather roll out w/Howell over both anyways) who else could we go with, Wentz or Heinicke? Or Unless there’s a draft day trade in the works to move up and grab Young, Strout or Levis (which I can’t see happening) we need/have to go w/Howell

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, ashlynskins said:

other then going down the route of another high end FA like Carr or Jimmy G (who I would rather roll out w/Howell over both anyways) who else could we go with, Wentz or Heinicke? Or Unless there’s a draft day trade in the works to move up and grab Young, Strout or Levis (which I can’t see happening) we need/have to go w/Howell

 

We are not at the end of the offseason where the majority of the QB moves have already been made. There will be QBs available to those that want them.

 

Carr is already out there. Jimmy G is out there. Lower-tiers like Mayfield and Brissett are out there. Rodgers might get traded. Fields might get traded. Lamar might get traded. A QB might fall in the draft. Situations have to shake out surrounding guys like D. Jones. and Geno, otherwise they are available. Tannehill's situation does not seem set in stone. Jordan Love might be set free.

 

While all of these players are not potential targets for us per se, major QB movement will cause a domino effect making unknown new QBs available. Those that look unattainable now, may not be in a few months.

 

In no reality is Howell our only viable option. He is simply the only viable option currently on the roster. New options will continue to reveal themselves.

Edited February 17, 2023 by FootballZombie

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Good post, the drafting of Mathis in particular was referenced by Mayhew as something ‘they had to do’. Fair few variables up in the air at present but without question our OL is a mess that simply requires major investment, and now.

 

I always hated that argument. It's just so thoughtless. there are many ways to address problems like that and probably the single worst approach is to force a need selection way above slotting. Draft for value, trade for need as they sometimes say in the fantasy game, there are always a litany of cuts over the summer, that offers an avenue of means to address such problems, so does the trade market, so does day 2 and 3 of the draft, and trade downs winthin it, so does the undrafted free agent market. They didn't HAVE TO do anything of the kind, and as the injury proved, fate can laugh at your face, about what you "HAVE TO DO" all the same. 

 

It was beyond frustrating that they forced such a pick. The only thing that ameliorated my feelings at the time was that my target w/the pick was still available and selected on day 3, but it still didn't justify borderline throwing a pick away (or at least its value) w/that selection. 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I always hated that argument. It's just so thoughtless. there are many ways to address problems like that and probably the single worst approach is to force a need selection way above slotting. Draft for value, trade for need as they sometimes say in the fantasy game, there are always a litany of cuts over the summer, that offers an avenue of means to address such problems, so does the trade market, so does day 2 and 3 of the draft, and trade downs winthin it, so does the undrafted free agent market. They didn't HAVE TO do anything of the kind, and as the injury proved, fate can laugh at your face, about what you "HAVE TO DO" all the same. 

 

It was beyond frustrating that they forced such a pick. The only thing that ameliorated my feelings at the time was that my target w/the pick was still available and selected on day 3, but it still didn't justify borderline throwing a pick away (or at least its value) w/that selection. 

Above slotting for who? You?

 

It obviously wasn’t for them. They took him.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I think you are tremendously undervaluing Sam Howell.

To underline that, Bieniemy was literally installed as OC the same year Mahomes took over as a full time starter at QB? This actually feels to me like a team bringing in a guy who was a part of Mahomes career as a starter from day 1, and his OC from day 1 as a full time starter.

 

Second added benefit for me is that he can take over as HC when we fire Rivera after this coming season lol. Not really joking either, it kind of places a potential HC replacement right there, whose spent a year with the QB. If the QB is promising but the team isn't, Bieniemy probably has an inside angle to HC after this coming season. 

 

Very interesting. 

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Above slotting for who? You?

 

It obviously wasn’t for them. They took him.

Yes me and not just me. There wasn't a board in the universe that I ever saw with him rated anywhere close to justifying such a pick. I'm not gonna give in to the appeal to authority fallacy, though that could be turned around on me, and I understand that. If you're team is on its own in its evaluation of a player, you're either the one genius in the room, or the biggest idiot. W/the selection, I definitely think it was the latter. Time will tell if he pans out or not, but there's little doubt to me that it was a waste of draft capital in the moment. 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

To underline that, Bieniemy was literally installed as OC the same year Mahomes took over as a full time starter at QB? This actually feels to me like a team bringing in a guy who was a part of Mahomes career as a starter from day 1, and his OC from day 1 as a full time starter.

 

Second added benefit for me is that he can take over as HC when we fire Rivera after this coming season lol. Not really joking either, it kind of places a potential HC replacement right there, whose spent a year with the QB. If the QB is promising but the team isn't, Bieniemy probably has an inside angle to HC after this coming season. 

 

Very interesting. 

Yes me and not just me. There wasn't a board in the universe that I ever saw with him rated anywhere close to justifying such a pick. I'm not gonna give in to the appeal to authority fallacy, though that could be turned around on me, and I understand that. If you're team is on its own in its evaluation of a player, you're either the one genius in the room, or the biggest idiot. W/the selection, I definitely think it was the latter. Time will tell if he pans out or not, but there's little doubt to me that it was a waste of draft capital in the moment. 

Great post RE: Howell.

 

I had Mathis right about where he was selected in my rankings. Does that make my board correct? No. But it makes mine accurate to what happened. 
 

 

[88Comrade2000]

6 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

OK, just to play this out hypothetically, are you suggesting that if TH is retained and Howell can't beat him out in camp then TH starts? I don't mean to be a smart ass but I'm in the camp of handing Howell the job and having him get all of the 1st team reps so he can grow with the starters. Unless Howell comes in and completely has no grasp of the offense and is terrible then I'd get behind him as the starter. If we're looking for a future franchise QB then why waste time naming someone like Teddy Bridgewater or Jacoby Brissett the starter over a solid prospect like Howell? 

EB just spent the last few years with Mahomes, he’s not resigning Taylor.

 

Unless Sam really balls, he will likely be replaced in 24 when the next coach takes over.  Having EB helps but I agree with Est. 1974 with us not just rolling with Sam. 
 

Sam is going to have to show we can really trust him. He’s going to have to be clearly the best qb this summer.

 

EB came here to get out of Andy’s shadow and show he deserves to be a head coach in 24.  He’s not going to want to put all the Cards in the Sam basket.

 

I know you Howell hivers are giddy that he will be our franchise guy. If that happens fine but I think he’s just likely a one year qb and when the team is under new people next year, we will be getting that long term qb then.

Edited February 18, 2023 by 88Comrade2000

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

3 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I know you Howell hivers are giddy that he will be our franchise guy. If that happens fine but I think he’s just likely a one year qb and when the team is under new people next year, we will be getting that long term qb then.

I am so glad you said this. Now I have more faith than ever in Sam Howell as our franchise QB. 
 

Being so wrong so often must be exhausting. 😆