Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Riggo#44]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I like some of Mond and Newman's game but would I bet that they become the unicorn that Russell Wilson was?  Nope.   

 

I like Mond more than Newman. I think they have similar flaws in their game--the reasons for Newman opting out this year scare me. Not that he opted out, but that he opted out because he didn't get the starting job (which is rumored). I am going to research Mond more.

 

...and dammit, why couldn't his parents name him James. Duh.

[sprcr]

You know, I get that wasnt a great play by Trask, but observe that's also 31 points on the board vs Alabama.  Which has been a pretty decent unit for the last decade.  If we can get Trask in the second, or trade back and get him.. I wouldnt be mad.

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, RWJ said:

IF a 2nd round pick for Trask looking at his film from past seasons, etc. having let's say Fitzpatrick or Taylor as a 1/2 year deal while he grows and TH on the team too, tell me why not?  Just curious, SIP.    Also, we may trade down in the 1st and pick up an extra pick or two using our traded down pick on a  LOT or WR.  

 

I'll start with no one has cracked the QB code and that naturally includes me.   So I wouldn't bet the house on any opinion on anyone.  It's staggering how many people get the Qb spot wrong.   The hardest thing to know are intangibles.  Can a QB work past their flaws?   We have no idea.  Shanny-Gibbs, etc have said they don't know until they have a QB in their building.

 

Why don't I like Trask?

No special traits.  He's a big dude but doesn't have a big arm.

His accuracy is overrated -- struggles some with throws in the flat.  He can make some killer good throws but he's not consistent

He relied heavily on monster receivers bailing him out on contested throws and when he played without those dudes he looked like a lost puppy

Lack of mobility or making plays off script

Locks often on his first read

 

Why do I like Jones over Trask

Jones is more nimble in the pocket and steps better around pressure

Can manipulate defenses better with his eyes -- love his body language especially on selling play action

His accuracy in the flat is insanely good

I like what I've read about his personality over Trask -- have a little more faith in his intangibles, granted this is mostly just a guess.

 

IMO accuracy in the flat is an underrated skill because so many throws happen there.   Haskins' wheel house was making throws in the flat but IMO just specifically the ones that were in his straight line of vision -- in between the numbers but really struggled with quick outs in the flat.  Jones's accuracy is really with both in and out routes in the flat.  I am not totally sold on Jones as you know but I like to compare him and Trask considering they are both pocket passers who benefited from killer supporting casts. 

 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[sprcr]

@Skinsinparadise Agreed on a line by line comparison.  Does the analysis change for you at all though if its framed as "you can have someone else at 19 and Trask in the second" vs "you can have Jones at 19 and someone else in the second?"  That's where it gets trickier for me.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

I like Mond more than Newman. I think they have similar flaws in their game--the reasons for Newman opting out this year scare me. Not that he opted out, but that he opted out because he didn't get the starting job (which is rumored). I am going to research Mond more.

 

...and dammit, why couldn't his parents name him James. Duh.

 

Mond is so up and down.  I am wary about a dude whose peak completion rate is 63% -- similar ironically on that front to Darnold.  In college its easier to put up a stellar completion rate.   I've watched him enough to know at a minimum that IMO he needs fixing.  Can Zamepese do it?  Not sure.  But just in general QBs who drop out of the first have a crazy high fail rate.   

 

I've liked some of them over the years where I thought if this happens and that happens then maybe -- but it doesn't tend to happen in the end for almost all of these guys.  Every once inawhile you get a Dak or Wilson but they are the unicorns.  Most of them are more in the mold of Finley, Webb, Rudolph, Lauletta, Faulk, Kiser, Cook, Hogan, Grayson on and on and on.  In real time before those drafts they all have these cool narratives that you can sell yourself on but in practice the odds that you will get a bust are extremely high.

 

If we end up punting on QB until 2022, I've love to build a supporting cast to set that up and not throw a third round pick in the trash for a lottery pick. 

[Burgundy Yoda]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Mond is so up and down.  I am wary about a dude whose peak completion rate is 63% -- similar ironically on that front to Darnold.  In college its easier to put up a stellar completion rate.   I've watched him enough to know at a minimum that IMO he needs fixing.  Can Zamepese do it?  Not sure.  But just in general QBs who drop out of the first have a crazy high fail rate.   

 

I've liked some of them over the years where I thought if this happens and that happens then maybe -- but it doesn't tend to happen in the end for almost all of these guys.  Every once inawhile you get a Dak or Wilson but they are the unicorns.  Most of them are more in the mold of Finley, Webb, Rudolph, Lauletta, Faulk, Kiser, Cook, Hogan, Grayson on and on and on.  In real time before those drafts they all have these cool narratives that you can sell yourself on but in practice the odds that you will get a bust are extremely high.

 

If we end up punting on QB until 2022, I've love to build a supporting cast to set that up and not throw a third round pick in the trash for a lottery pick. 

That is my biggest concern with him, typically I like to see above 65% in college by their senior season, that's my floor. He has some interesting traits though, my mind has shifted from mobile QBs are more likely to bust to thinking that mobile QBs are less likely to bust with the emergence of guys like Jackson and even Jalen Hurts showing he can get it done. They have higher floors and higher ceilings these days, generally. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, sprcr said:

@Skinsinparadise Agreed on a line by line comparison.  Does the analysis change for you at all though if its framed as "you can have someone else at 19 and Trask in the second" vs "you can have Jones at 19 and someone else in the second?"  That's where it gets trickier for me.

 

No it doesn't because if I don't think Trask has the goods and while i am not sold on Mac Jones I am also not unsold.    So in short i could be talked into Mac Jones.  It would be very difficult to talk me into Trask.  I probably spent more time watching those two players then any in the draft.  I could be wrong but I've seen enough of both to land on a strong opinion on them. 

 

I don't want Trask in the 2nd.  The only way i'd be sold on Trask is if we learn that Rivera and company are sold that his intangibles are just through the roof special. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

the more I think about it the less I like the idea of Newman or Mond in the 2nd or 3rd. 

 

We talk about busts in the first round but the percentage of busts in the 2nd or 3rd round is beyond insane.   The draft looks loaded at offensive play makers at that range of the draft so not sure i love the idea of picking a dude who has about a 90% chance of busting versus a guy like an Elijah Moore, Michael Carter, Brevin Jordan, etc. 

 

I like some of Mond and Newman's game but would I bet that they become the unicorn that Russell Wilson was?  Nope.   

I think just like Brady is a high bar for Jones, Wilson is a high bar for these guys. Would I want Wilson? Sure. But I'd say a more reasonable thing is something like Hurts last year or Dak in his rookie year. I'm not saying a finished product but somebody that can come in and not **** the bed. Grier and Finley were two guys I liked a two years ago and they had tons of experience and neither has really done anything (Finley looks like he really doesn't belong). But again neither is mobile and I think mobility helps young QBs. I look at Daniel Jones who I think was overdrafted and his mobility is helping him as a young QB when his arm gets him in trouble. He's not a world beater but if Mond or Newman can have his kind of success, I'd think its ok. 

 

And like I've been saying all alone, the success rate for qbs with over 3.5 yards per rush, over 60% completions and over 600 attempts is a lot higher than just looking for a random late round guy. 

[Malapropismic Depository]

Both Mac Jones and Tom Brady, wore the same jersey number in college.

Whoaaa.....

 

:run away emoji:

 

 

[Riggo#44]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Mond is so up and down.  I am wary about a dude whose peak completion rate is 63% -- similar ironically on that front to Darnold.  In college its easier to put up a stellar completion rate.   I've watched him enough to know at a minimum that IMO he needs fixing.  Can Zamepese do it?  Not sure.  But just in general QBs who drop out of the first have a crazy high fail rate.   

 

I'm sorry I was told Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, was that not true?

 

I'm watching more of his tape--love the arm and the athleticism. It all boils down to exactly that--do they think they can fix his flaws? I think he'd be worth our later 3rd rounder, but if he's there in the 4th, absolutely.

[skinny21]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

the more I think about it the less I like the idea of Newman or Mond in the 2nd or 3rd. 

 

We talk about busts in the first round but the percentage of busts in the 2nd or 3rd round is beyond insane.   The draft looks loaded at offensive play makers at that range of the draft so not sure i love the idea of picking a dude who has about a 90% chance of busting versus a guy like an Elijah Moore, Michael Carter, Brevin Jordan, etc. 

 

I like some of Mond and Newman's game but would I bet that they become the unicorn that Russell Wilson was?  Nope.   

Yeah, it’s an interesting balancing act.  I guess my question would be how much different is that than using (for argument’s sake) a 1st and two 3rd’s to move up for Lance or Jones?  So, to me it depends on how they view said qb.  If they’re thinking, let’s take a flyer on Mond (or name that qb) for a 2nd... that’s a poor choice.  Same as trading up for a guy because they think they need to make a move.

 

This ties into something else I was just thinking about - I wonder how they view Allen/Heinicke.  I mean, do they see them as ‘vets’ given their experience in the system and age?  Or do they see them more as that 2nd round qb they like - young(ish), with some upside, but odds stacked pretty heavily against them?

Given the talk of them wanting a vet, I would think the latter viewpoint is probably more accurate (you’d usually want a young guy as your last backup, much like other positions).  Though that could be more a product of the injury concerns of our 2 guys - if they add a young guy/rook to the mix, there’s a decent chance that guy is gonna have to start/play some regular season games, so they’d rather the vet.  Personally, I kind of like the idea of a rookie with upside getting valuable experience later in the season.  Gives coaches some stuff to evaluate, gives the rook valuable PT, and gives the other players a sense of the young guy.

 

As for guys like Watson/Wilson, given how the FO apparently views the roster, I’m not surprised they won’t go after those two.  Losing both picks and cap makes the roster improvement a great deal harder than it is currently.  I think they could overcome the loss of resources, but I see their viewpoint.

[Riggo#44]

3 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

That is my biggest concern with him, typically I like to see above 65% in college by their senior season, that's my floor.

 

I do too, but Allen had a 56% completion percentage, Watson threw 30 picks his two years as a starter. So, some of that is talent around him, scheme, yadda, yadda, yadda. That's the sort of thing I just don't know--smarter people would have to point it out to me.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Thinking Skins said:

I think just like Brady is a high bar for Jones, Wilson is a high bar for these guys. Would I want Wilson? Sure. But I'd say a more reasonable thing is something like Hurts last year or Dak in his rookie year. I'm not saying a finished product but somebody that can come in and not **** the bed. Grier and Finley were two guys I liked a two years ago and they had tons of experience and neither has really done anything (Finley looks like he really doesn't belong). But again neither is mobile and I think mobility helps young QBs. I look at Daniel Jones who I think was overdrafted and his mobility is helping him as a young QB when his arm gets him in trouble. He's not a world beater but if Mond or Newman can have his kind of success, I'd think its ok. 

 

And like I've been saying all alone, the success rate for qbs with over 3.5 yards per rush, over 60% completions and over 600 attempts is a lot higher than just looking for a random late round guy. 

 

 The odds that you are just wasting a pick when you pick QBs outside the first is good especially the further down you go.  For me if its a 4th-5th what the heck since the bust rate in that range is high for all positions.  But the odds that you can find a good player at another spot in the 2nd or 3rd is much higher than hitting on a QB.   With all of depth of offensive playmakers in this draft it might be a shame to throw one of those picks in the trash to bet on the lottery.  

 

Dak in his rookie year had crazy numbers, they aren't that different from RG3.  If that's your "low bar", then Mond would have to explode in the pros for example and become a dude he hasn't been yet in college not even close. 

 

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
Career					69	69	42-27-0	1514	2293	66.0	17634	106	4.6	40	1.7	875	90	7.7	7.8	11.6	255.6	97.3		146	892	6.86	7.00	6.0	9	15	66
2016*	23	DAL	QB	4	16	16	13-3-0	311	459	67.8	3667	23	5.0	4	0.9	185	83	8.0	8.6	11.8	229.2	104.9	77.6	25	143	7.28	7.86	5.2	5	5	16
2017	24	DAL	QB	4	16	16	9-7-0	308	490	62.9	3324	22	4.5	13	2.7	162	81	6.8	6.5	10.8	207.8	86.6	69.9	32	185	6.01	5.74	6.1	0	4	14
2018*	25	DAL	QB	4	16	16	10-6-0	356	526	67.7	3885	22	4.2	8	1.5	206	90	7.4	7.5	10.9	242.8	96.9	55.2	56	347	6.08	6.22	9.6	3	5	14
2019	26	DAL	QB	4	16	16	8-8-0	388	596	65.1	4902	30	5.0	11	1.8	229	62	8.2	8.4	12.6	306.4	99.7	71.9	23	151	7.68	7.84	3.7			16
2020	27	DAL	qb	4	5	5	2-3-0	151	222	68.0	1856	9	4.1	4	1.8	93	58	8.4	8.4	12.3	371.2	99.6	78.7	10	66	7.72	7.72	4.3	1	1	6

[Burgundy Yoda]

3 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

I do too, but Allen had a 56% completion percentage, Watson threw 30 picks his two years as a starter. So, some of that is talent around him, scheme, yadda, yadda, yadda. That's the sort of thing I just don't know--smarter people would have to point it out to me.

It's funny because you definitely have to look at scheme. How many of Allen's passes were downfield throws? That would obviously negatively effect his accuracy, I don't care who you are, you're always going to be more accurate at close range. I'll be looking forward to Chris Simms's evaluation of this QB class for sure, he understands all the stuff that can positively or negatively effect numbers better than I do by a mile. 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

I'm sorry I was told Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, was that not true?

 

 

Why sign Lavonte David in FA?  Wasn't London Fletcher an undrafted free agent? 

8 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Yeah, it’s an interesting balancing act.  I guess my question would be how much different is that than using (for argument’s sake) a 1st and two 3rd’s to move up for Lance or Jones?  So, to me it depends on how they view said qb.  If they’re thinking, let’s take a flyer on Mond (or name that qb) for a 2nd... that’s a poor choice.  Same as trading up for a guy because they think they need to make a move.

 

 

It's hard for me to look at it in a vaccum.  I've watched numerous Mond games.  So in my mind its not a QB versus lets say a Wr.  It's specific do i want to use a 2nd on Mond or do I want a dude who might be there at the pick like Rondale Moore?  Or in the third  Mond or Brevin jordan or Michael Carter, etc?

 

If I am going to throw one of our draft picks in all likelihood in the trash, I'd do it in the 4th round. 

[Thinking Skins]

Maybe Dak was a high bar as well. I'll stick with Hurts as a good bar. Or look at Jacoby Brissett's second year (first with Indy). He went 4-11, but had 58.8 completion percentage, 3000 yards, 13TDs 7 Ints, 260 yards rushing and 4TDs on 4 yards per run. 

 

Nothing spectacular but something that says he can be a starter or a good backup in the league. 

[Riggo#44]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Why sign Lavonte David in FA?  Wasn't London Fletcher an undrafted free agent? 

We should trade all of our useless, expensive high-round picks for 6th rounders and fill our team with the next Tom Brady at every position.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I

 

And like I've been saying all alone, the success rate for qbs with over 3.5 yards per rush, over 60% completions and over 600 attempts is a lot higher than just looking for a random late round guy. 

 

IMO beating around to find a formula for successful late round QBs is likely futile.  No one has cracked that code yet.  It seems like there is a common refrain as for players that exceed expectations -- especially at QB.  That being, intangibles.  It's no secret that Brady isn't a gifted athlete but his intangibles are special.

 

Gibbs has talked about this.  Shanny has talked about this.  Intangibles are key.  And they've said they don't really know for sure until they have those players in the building.  

 

So if there is a code to crack I am guessing its predicated heavily on intangibles.  And i don't think we can figure that out from our couches.  

 

Lets take a dude like Mond.  if he has some a crazy level degree of committment like out of a Rocky movie with an incredible work ethic and leadership skills maybe that dude ends up another exception to the rule.  But I doubt you can figure this out on your own just combing through their stats. 

4 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Maybe Dak was a high bar as well. I'll stick with Hurts as a good bar. Or look at Jacoby Brissett's second year (first with Indy). He went 4-11, but had 58.8 completion percentage, 3000 yards, 13TDs 7 Ints, 260 yards rushing and 4TDs on 4 yards per run. 

 

Nothing spectacular but something that says he can be a starter or a good backup in the league. 

 

If we are looking for the next Brissett, just sign him in FA.  I have higher hopes than finding just a guy. 

[actorguy1]

I'm jumping on the trade back a few times this year to build up draft capital for a veteran QB trade next offseason bandwagon. 

[Burgundy Yoda]

2 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

I'm jumping on the trade back a few times this year to build up draft capital for a veteran QB trade next offseason bandwagon. 

It all depends on how the board falls for me. If one of the top 4 QBs start slipping, I'd trade up for them. If they all go extremely early, we could see a shift of pretty good talent fall in this draft and trading down might be the way to go. 

[Est.1974]

Keep going back to the Mariota link. Bad contract to trade for, but he will be cut eventually. Think we are sat on that waiting game right now.

[Malapropismic Depository]

I don't feel confident of our chances to acquire a good QB this offseason, for 2 reasons :

 

All the QB's within our reach of acquisition, are not very good.

All the really good QB's who may be potentially available, do not seem reasonably within our reach to acquire.

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

IMO beating around to find a formula for successful late round QBs is likely futile.  No one has cracked that code yet.  It seems like there is a common refrain as for players that exceed expectations -- especially at QB.  That being, intangibles.  It's no secret that Brady isn't a gifted athlete but his intangibles are special.

 

Gibbs has talked about this.  Shanny has talked about this.  Intangibles are key.  And they've said they don't really know for sure until they have those players in the building.  

 

So if there is a code to crack I am guessing its predicated heavily on intangibles.  And i don't think we can figure that out from our couches.  

 

Lets take a dude like Mond.  if he has some a crazy level degree of committment like out of a Rocky movie with an incredible work ethic and leadership skills maybe that dude ends up another exception to the rule.  But I doubt you can figure this out on your own just combing through their stats. 

I don't think there's a magic formula but I do think that there are things you look for. Parcells had things he looked for

 - 3 year starter

 - senior

 - graduate

 - start 30 games

 - win 23 games

 - complete 60 % 

 - 2 to 1 TD / INT ratio. 

 

That was for a different era though. We don't see nearly as many QBs start 3 years a much so those first 3 bullets, if not first 5 are gone. But the 60% is something important. I think it needs to be more detailed like 60% in a number of areas of the field (like Haskins had 60% but only to one area of the field).

 

And he ignores mobility which is turning into an important factor.

 

I said before that just taking off people who didn't have that 60% threshold or even if we lower it to 58% or so, and then replace the number of starts with attempts then we can start to see something similar to Parcells's requirements. But if we assume that 250 attempts a year, then 3 years is somewhere around 750 attempts. I'm kinda lowering that to 200 attempts a year over three years which amounts to a 600 attempt cutoff.

 

But its just interesting to see how few QBs meet these thresholds. 

 

One thing I'm looking at though (that goes against Mond and Newman) is that most of the QBs who had a high yards per rush in college and were somewhat successful in the pros also had above 8.0 yards per attempt in college. My thought behind this is that their ability to scramble should help create an opening when somebody abandons their responsibilities to try to make the tackle on a running QB and suddenly there's a big play possibility. 

 

Kyler Murray - 10.4

Trey Lance - 9.3

Vince Young - 8.4

Marcus Mariota - 9.3

Lamar Jackson - 8.3

Andrew Luck - 8.9

Cam Newton - 10

Michael Vick - 9.6

Jalen Hurts - 9.1

Carson Wentz - 8.4

Dak Prescott - 8

Deshaun Watson - 8.4

Robert Griffin III - 8.7

 

If you look at the QBs who had top yards per rush in college and went pro, almost all the guys who had above 8.0 yards per passing attempt were successful pros. Mond has a 7.1 yards per attempt. Newman has 7.8. 

 

At the end of the day, football and sports in general gives me so many data sets to play around with and look for patterns. Thats all I'm doing. Nothing will probably come from this, but that doesn't mean its not fun. "Its not about the destination. its about the journey" I'm just playing with stats. 

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

11 hours ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

If they aren't 1st round picks (with 5th yr options attached), you have to sign them after year 2.  Dallas didn't even try as far as I've seen.  They waited until after year 3 which, duhhh, he's going to wait it out, same as Cousins,  PLUS he's in a different tier of player.  

 

Basically with QBs you need to be 2 years ahead of schedule or otherwise, they bet on themselves. 

 

 You mean like Philly did with Wentz?

 

 

[Burgundy Yoda]

Mond at 7.1 YPA and only 63% completion percentage draws some pause from me. 

 

Meanwhile, Mac Jones has 11.2 YPA to go along with 77% completion percentage. That's actually nuts honestly. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda