Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[JamesMadisonSkins]

3 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

thing is, you simply can’t justify sitting out the Watson sweepstakes and then plough all of that draft capital out of the door for a rookie. 

 

There's a difference between:

#19, #72, 2022 1st, 3rd and

 

#19, #51, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd, Daron Payne, Montez Sweat

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

Rookie contract vs. Bloated contract

Unproven potential bust vs Proven franchise QB that would start on 75% of the teams in the league. That balances the price out I would think. And some.

 

That said, I’m very open to what we do. But if we sit on a mediocre tier 2 QB, I predict the Rivera honeymoon takes a turn for the worse.

 

I think he recognises the risk of that too.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, KDawg said:

Doesn't answer my question, though.

 

What's the plan while we wait?

 

Here would be my plan ...

 

1. Explore trade market for a veteran like Mariota, Darnold

2. If nothing matriculates, hope Dak hits FA and target him. If not, look to released vets (Mariota) or stopgaps (Tyrod, Cam) with eye toward the draft

3. Draft. Let it play out, see who falls. Have offers on the table in case Fields/Lance is available at a reasonable spot

 

IMO, Watson is on the table until the draft. And he stays on the table after the draft if you're unable to make a move up.

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

There's a difference between:

#19, #72, 2022 1st, 3rd and

 

#19, #51, 2022 1st, 2022 2nd, Daron Payne, Montez Sweat

why do Payne and Sweat feature in that example?

[The Consigliere]

9 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

As most people are, Rivera is a very big on Watson. Rates him very highly. I dislike the notion we trade players, both Mayhew and Hurney said our foundation starts with the trenches, plus that pivotal QB. Makes no sense to trade away DL at all.

 

Got to back ourselves to be making playoff runs with Watson at QB, so those first rounders are valued accordingly. Pretty much the Rams philosophy.

 

yes it does. You can't keep all of them.

Allen's rookie deal plus option is over in January '22

Payne's rookie deal plus option is over in January '23

Young's rookie deal plus option is over in January January '25

We already paid Ionnaidis. 

 

We can't pay all of them. Trading one of them makes a ton of sense as you're going to have to start making tough decisions on whom you'll let move on just one year from now. 

 

So yes, you absolutely can and should include one, you CAN'T keep them all and have a functional roster. Like QB, you address this issue by continuing to attack the position. DT/Edge is one of the most valuable positions to address with first rounders because of the rookie option and the cost of elite DT/Edge help in FA. The way you solve losing them is drafting more of them in draft's featuring a solid to good DT/Edge class where a guy is there for you to take a chance on. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

why do Payne and Sweat feature in that example?

 

Assuming it takes 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and 2 defensive players as been reported.

 

Also, for the scenario I posted, if we exit the off-season with a mid-round QB added to the mix of Allen/Heinecke ... that just means we built our team up with our draft and FA assets and that's okay. And if Watson situation is still on the table post-draft, then I would be open to trading a lot of future draft assets to bring him in, if he still forces himself out. And at that stage in the game, a lot of folks would be "out" and the price could drop. 2022, 2023 1st and 2nd, and I guess you could throw-in whatever rookie mid-rounder we have (Mond, Newman?)

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

why do Payne and Sweat feature in that example?

Because that’s the current rumor. Equivalency of 3 firsts, 3 seconds and some change. 
 

If the price is lower it changes.

 

I hope the FO is communicating with Houston.

 

I’m with @JamesMadisonSkins on this. You put the feelers out on Watson and still try to get Dak if he hits FA or trade up in the draft to get Fields if he starts to fall. If neither materialize you keep your eyes on Watson. Actually, trading for Watson post 2021 Draft makes more sense to me. So if we strike out now after the draft is around the time I start to push more in. 
 

And that includes a defensive linemen in the offer.

Edited February 2, 2021 by KDawg

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@The Consigliere well you can. Ionidis is older and likely not brought back after 2022. Settle expires in 2022.

 

In 2022 and 2023 you currently have a projected $133m and $177m respectively. You Absolutely have the ability to have Payne/Allen extended on big deals while still on the rookie deals of Sweat and Payne. These contracts are staggered, and you have tons of cap space available. You can 100% keep the big 4 together as long as you want.

[Est.1974]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Doesn't answer my question, though.

 

What's the plan while we wait?

 

Do we make a Texans offer and do nothing through FA part 1, Draft and then see in FA part 2?

No, the cut off point for the Watson race is the start of free agency.

3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Assuming it takes 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and 2 defensive players as been reported.

 

So you picked 2 very good ones for effect ?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

No, the cut off point for the Watson race is the start of free agency.

 

Not if you "strike out" and exit the off-season with a mid-round QB. And if the Texans try to keep Watson and he makes it even more clear he isn't re conciliating.

 

You would presumably add a WR (FA), LB (FA, Draft), FS (FA), LT (draft), TE (draft), Edge (Draft) ... and would be in a good position to give up future draft assets to bring in Watson, because every hole is, in theory "filled". Obviuosly you have a harder time bringing in a FA WR if you don't have a legit QB, but if you can get someone to buy into the vision it could work.

 

Watson's 2021 $10m cap hit would also be easily taken on in that scenario.

Edited February 2, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[FootballZombie]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

What's the plan while we wait?

 

I think exactly what the team is doing is the best plan.

 

You should have your finger in every pie your interested in, at a price your comfortable with.

 

While they didn't blow their wad to obtain Stafford, they placed a competitive offer. If a FA is available you think you can win with (never gonna happen but Dak) you try to bring him in. If draft day comes around and a QB they targeted is sliding, you can make a offer to move up.

 

All the while, you blow up the Houston's GMs phone to the point it can be registered as a nuclear device.

Edited February 2, 2021 by FootballZombie

[Est.1974]

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

yes it does. You can't keep all of them.

Allen's rookie deal plus option is over in January '22

Payne's rookie deal plus option is over in January '23

Young's rookie deal plus option is over in January January '25

We already paid Ionnaidis. 

 

We can't pay all of them. Trading one of them makes a ton of sense as you're going to have to start making tough decisions on whom you'll let move on just one year from now. 

 

So yes, you absolutely can and should include one, you CAN'T keep them all and have a functional roster. Like QB, you address this issue by continuing to attack the position. DT/Edge is one of the most valuable positions to address with first rounders because of the rookie option and the cost of elite DT/Edge help in FA. The way you solve losing them is drafting more of them in draft's featuring a solid to good DT/Edge class where a guy is there for you to take a chance on. 

Seems like we have already engaged with Jon Allen on an extension. You make good points though, I simply don’t see us trading away DL this offseason. That doesn’t preclude us from trading someone away next offseason though. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@The Consigliere well you can. Ionidis is older and likely not brought back after 2022. Settle expires in 2022.

 

In 2022 and 2023 you currently have a projected $133m and $177m respectively. You Absolutely have the ability to have Payne/Allen extended on big deals while still on the rookie deals of Sweat and Payne. These contracts are staggered, and you have tons of cap space available. You can 100% keep the big 4 together as long as you want.

 

Contracts are also backloaded. By the time you enter Allen's big paydays, you have Sweat being extended with lower hits. By the time Payne gets into his big paydays, you have Chase going on the cheaper years of his deals.

 

You aren't paying more than 2 guys massive $$ on their new deals until you get into the 2026-2027 time-frame and at that point you start making the "hard decisions" ... and at that point you likely have drafted potential replacements to let one of Allens and Paynes walk.

[Skinsinparadise]

31 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

The positive about us not trading a ton of our draft capital for a vet... cap room and/or draft picks to replace the two we lose.

 

It depends IMO and who the vet is what the trade capital was and cap hit.   The rest isn't directed at you but just explaining my mindset:

 

Stafford for example for the first and third rounders they offered IMO would have been tailor made.  His cap hit is relatively benign.  Those who said he'd want his contract tore up and to get a new one -- clearly that wasn't a provision for Stafford.  I recall the same narrative was said about Beckham when the trade happened but he also didn't get a new deal.  So Stafford at 20 million and 23 million against the cap which was less than Alex's cap hit this year -- I think would have been great.  

 

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Our future draft pick status:

 

2021 : 1,2,3,3,4,5,7,7

2022 : 1,2,3,4,5,6,7

2023 : 1,2,3,4,5,6,7

If as an organisation we decide, right, blockbuster trade for Watson, then that’s its. All future draft picks in 2021-23 will be retained. No more trading away over that period. 
 

Is a trade really that debilitating when Watson would in theory still be our QB in 2026,2027 and beyond?

 

Is it really a short sighted move to win now, trying to secure a 25 year old franchise QB?

 

You could argue it is short term sacrifice for longer term success. Long term planning from a different perspective.

 

Watson even fits into our salary cap situation.

 

 

 

 

Yep, his youth is why a trade for him makes 1000x more sense than Stafford. The faux-playoff run helps in that regard as we may not be considered quite the dumpster fire we still are after what happened in the second half of the season, especially considering so many of the issues we did have were rightly traceable to bottom quartile of the league caliber quarterback play. Assuming he stays health, we get him for a decade. That makes a multiple 1st trade, immaterial. The only knock is the cap hit. You don't get the rookie contract for years going out which is why my #1 priority was landing Lawrence or Fields. 5 years of those guys on a rookie deal is just banana's, but the vast bulk of the NFL's teams have shown that you can compete for the super bowl even w/cap busting QB contracts if you have a legit franchise QB: see Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Seattle, New England etc. If you've got a generational QB, you have to screw up badly, nearly everywhere else, perpetually, to make it not work (Atlanta's kind of done that with Matt Ryan, whose a tier below the above, the Lions have also done so with Stafford, but I'd argue that Stafford until maybe this past year, was largely a tier below Ryan, the Cowboys have also failed to fully realize their potential with Romo and now Dak, though they did make the playoffs a bunch but all these franchises are pretty notorious for garbage front offices, which hopefully is something we move away from (and we already have seen a measurable improvement in the teams handling of the draft in recent years so there's that). 

 

 

[Est.1974]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Because that’s the current rumor. Equivalency of 3 firsts, 3 seconds and some change. 
 

If the price is lower it changes.

 

I hope the FO is communicating with Houston.

 

I’m with @JamesMadisonSkins on this. You put the feelers out on Watson and still try to get Dak if he hits FA or trade up in the draft to get Fields if he starts to fall. If neither materialize you keep your eyes on Watson. Actually, trading for Watson post 2021 Draft makes more sense to me. So if we strike out now after the draft is around the time I start to push more in. 
 

And that includes a defensive linemen in the offer.

Watson is going to sit out. Hell, he even has the support of his teammates for wanting to leave, allegedly.
 

The Texans can’t wait until after the draft. They will have three teams picking top 8 in the draft offering them a haul. That likely blows our position out of the water anyway, but his no trade clause may aid that if still valid. Point being, the Texans would be stupid to wait that long....oh wait...so I guess that’s possible too...

[sjinhan]

18 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Here would be my plan ...

 

1. Explore trade market for a veteran like Mariota, Darnold

2. If nothing matriculates, hope Dak hits FA and target him. If not, look to released vets (Mariota) or stopgaps (Tyrod, Cam) with eye toward the draft

3. Draft. Let it play out, see who falls. Have offers on the table in case Fields/Lance is available at a reasonable spot

 

IMO, Watson is on the table until the draft. And he stays on the table after the draft if you're unable to make a move up.

 

Cam is looked done.  I guess it could be the system but Cam just looked bad in NE.  Tyrod seems like a good dude but what has he done even as a stopgap despite getting "stopgap" hype for past 3-4 years...

 

If you go stopgap route then you want someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick who actually looks like they have a year or two left. 

 

I would trade quite a bit for Watson.  

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Here would be my plan ...

 

1. Explore trade market for a veteran like Mariota, Darnold

2. If nothing matriculates, hope Dak hits FA and target him. If not, look to released vets (Mariota) or stopgaps (Tyrod, Cam) with eye toward the draft

3. Draft. Let it play out, see who falls. Have offers on the table in case Fields/Lance is available at a reasonable spot

 

IMO, Watson is on the table until the draft. And he stays on the table after the draft if you're unable to make a move up.

 

Just my opinion on your takes. 😀

 

1. I like Mariota but don't love him but I can ride with it.  Yuck as for Darnold who to me is at best a poor man's Daniel Jones.  It's ironic to me that McShay likes Darnold so much even though he's a Jones critic considering the two players IMO have identical flaws.

 

2.  Dallas just needs to give Dak the exclusive tag and then at worst they could at least trade him.  I'd say zero chance he doesn't get the exclusive tag.   for me a big no on Cam.  Maybe on Taylor.

 

3. I've been on board with trading up in the draft as long as they love a guy.  So if Sheehan is right and they love Fields then try to get him.  I wouldn't go crazy if they just like a dude.  The draft capital is probably big though considering how far they'd have to go up.

 

According to a Texans reporter if they decide to move Watson it will happen before the draft because of two reasons:

 

A.  the perception right now 2022 might be a "meh" QB draft

B.  The strength of this draft at QB and ability to make moves to build the roster now.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@The Consigliere You got me interested in the DL contracts since I keep posting with confidence, but here's what I gather.

 

FYI, I used the 5th years for Allen/Payne/Sweat/Young as it is now, obv. will go up by the time their contracts expire (at least Sweat/Young).

I used Myles Garret's contract for Young (2nd largest EDGE) and Trey Flowers for Sweat (6th largest EDGE) and Chris Jones contract for Allen/Payne (3rd largest IDL)

 

I dropped Settle and Io after their current contracts expire. I assume we replace them with draft picks as a natural team building strategy. See attached. OTC only goes out to 2024, but you can see how things stack up. It does get a bit dicey in 2025 with all 4 on massive contracts, but you have no contracts currently on the books that year and presumably have a steep cap (240-250m). All extensions are 4 years after the rookie 5th year, but I'm sure longer ones could be pushed out to spread some of the mid-year moneys around. Not a whle lot of room to backload contracts with they're 4 years.

 

Pale = 5th year

Yellow = new contracts using top-market deals as examples

FYI: Cap space number only includes the contracts currently on the books, so doesn't include Allen beyond 2021, Payne beyond 2021, Io and Settle beyond 2022, Sweat beyond 2022, Young, beyond 2023.

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, LetThePointsSoar said:

All this talk of Fields, do you y'all really think he's going to fall in the draft enough where we could move up to get him? 

 

I just don't see it personally, but most people I see posting about it, I am certain know way more than I, so now you're all getting my hopes up a bit. 

 

When we were 2-7, I was all in on tanking for landing Fields at the #2 spot. I think he's a generational player.  Perhaps some of it comes from watching QB1 on Netflix and becoming a fan of him in high school, but man this kid is solid AND has a great head on his shoulder to boot. 

 

I'm utterly stunned that Wilson and Lance appear to be ahead of him. It makes absolutely no sense to me. People are really going to regret letting him fall if they do. 

[Inigo Montoya]

My order from here on out (Stafford was my favorite option, player and cost. We offered what I would have offered a 1st and 3rd or 2nd next year) 

1. Dak or Watson without the capital being too insane
2. Mariota or Carr - I'm in. Not in love, but I'm in 
3. Fields or Wilson in trade up 
4. Jones at 19 
5. Matty Ice or Fitz

 

Anything else would be tough and tough to get my favorite offseason move, Allen Robinson. I loved what Heine showed, but there's a reason RR isnt in love with him and I trust that

[88Comrade2000]

If Houston caves, Watson will have a big say; unless he waves the no trade clause.

 

Stafford wanted to go to LA. I think the Rams upped their initial offer to make it happen.

 

Watson is going dictate where he ends up and I don’t see us as being a destination.

 

 

[Riggo#44]

6 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Watson is going dictate where he ends up and I don’t see us as being a destination.

 

I'm fairly certain he has already said that. Especially given who his agent is: David Mulugheta--Dwayne Haskins agent.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Hard pass. Ohio State. I don’t care about his gosh darn skills.