2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just re-subscribed to FanSpeak and ran a mock-off season. Some of the contracts are bizarro world that some guys got. But, anyway, Dak hit FA and I just couldn't resist ... so I opted for the go big or go home off-season. Was curious what FanSpeak let me fit under the cap. I had $10m left going into the draft.

 

Re-Signed G Brandon Scherff - 4y, $60m - $10m cap hit in 2021

Re-Signed CB Ronald Darby - 3y, $27m - $6m cap hit in 2021

Signed QB Dak Prescott - 5y, $200m - $25m cap hit in 2021

Signed WR Allen Robinson - 5y, $100m - $14m cap hit in 2021

Signed LB Lavonte David - 3y, $42m - $11m cap hit in 2021

 

$10m cap space left after that (per a projected $68m after a June 1st cut of Smith) ... they're using FanSpeak, not sure of accuracy.

 

Draft:

1: OT Christian Darrisaw, VT

2: LB Dylan Moses, Alabama

3: WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson

3: RB Trey Sermon, Ohio State

4: TE Tre Mc'Kitty, Georgia

5: S Richard LeCounte III, Georgia

 

Probably the "ideal off-season" but very little room for other maneuvers/vet FAs, etc.

 

QB: Dak Prescott

LB: Lavonte David, Dylan Moses

WR: Allen Robinson, Amari Rodgers

 

Edited February 16, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Rufus T Firefly]

20 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Just re-subscribed to FanSpeak and ran a mock-off season. Some of the contracts are bizarro world that some guys got. But, anyway, Dak hit FA and I just couldn't resist ... so I opted for the go big or go home off-season. Was curious what FanSpeak let me fit under the cap. I had $10m left going into the draft.

 

Re-Signed G Brandon Scherff - 4y, $60m - $10m cap hit in 2021

Re-Signed CB Ronald Darby - 3y, $27m - $6m cap hit in 2021

Signed QB Dak Prescott - 5y, $200m - $25m cap hit in 2021

Signed WR Allen Robinson - 5y, $100m - $14m cap hit in 2021

Signed LB Lavonte David - 3y, $42m - $11m cap hit in 2021

 

 

So, in one year's time, the remaining average per-year cap hits on those 5 players is $107.67 mil.

 

Insane. 

[Ruzious]

I'm fine with spending money in free agency, but trying to buy our way into the playoffs - especially with Prescott - would make me sick.     

[KDawg]

Edit: wrong thread 

Edited February 16, 2021 by KDawg

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

5 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Good take on Horn.  I've only watched some of his games but I too really liked what I saw for the most part.  Regarding his run support, he's a mixed bag.  He's not a dog like Okudah and Wade.  But he does have the size and length and closing speed to eventually be better in run support with improved technique and focus.  I think he was just pissed off in that Auburn game, or locked in and playing with fire.  Most of the time you're going to be playing him in press man though, and he won't be much of a factor in your run defense.

 

The big criticism of him that I've read is that he is inconsistent.  That Auburn game shows you his ceiling, which is awesome, but supposedly there is a lot of passivity and weak technique in his film too.  Tony Pauline said that if he had more games like Auburn in his film, then he would easily be the top corner in the class and a top ten pick, but that consistency just isn't there.  So I don't really know what to make of him.  But at 19, I kind of like the idea of swinging for the fences to get a true stud man corner and trusting the coaches to get him to reach his best.  Get him at 19 and another corner like Elijah Molden in the third, and an ILB like Cameron McGrone in the fourth and I can envision a completely dominant defensive identity taking shape: simplify your coverages with Horn shadowing opposing #1s, use McGrone for blitzing, and let Molden and Fuller make plays from their zones.  Get an OT in the second and some WR help in free agency and the team could get good if we can sort out our QB situation.

 

That Auburn game was basically a full seasons highlight reel.  Crazy how many positive plays he made.

 

I think some of the inconsistency observations might have been how they used him.  It's not like the put him at RCB for a full game and told him he has only half a dozen responsibilities total, only 1-2 of which he's asked to do each play.  Instead they put him in the slot at times, he's in shallow zone, he's in deeper zone, he's in Man following someone to the slot, he's in Man on just whoever is furthest to his side.  I feel like that's a lot to ask of a college corner.  While he didn't have an Auburn like game in the others, he still looked good and did his job in coverage.

 

I need to watch the other 2 corners ranked above him, cause Horn seems good enough to be CB1 in an average draft class.  Looking at past draft classes I can only see 2 recent ones where Horn wouldn't be in contention for CB1.  So if he's CB3 now, that gives good odds we'd get a good player at #19, and/or CB1/2 of this class are just that good.

 

If I had to rank recent CB prospects as they were coming out of college (I didn't scout 2020 top tier CB's so can't comment):

 

Tier above Horn:

Ramsey, Lattimore, Humphrey

Tier around Horn:

Ward, Trufant, Rhodes

Just a bit below Horn but still really good:

Slay, Kyle Fuller, Bradley Roby, Jason Verrett, William Jackson, Jaire Alexander

Tier of overdrafted 1st rounders who I thought would bust:

Trae Waynes, Johnthan Banks (almost 1st, but still), Marcus Peters (wrong on this one), Kevin Johnson (actually liked him, but surprised he went #16), Eli Apple, Vernon Hargreaves, Artie Burns, Tre White (waaay wrong here), Adoree Jackson, Gareon Conley, Mike Hughes

 

I can't remember what I thought of Milliner, Gilbert, or Hayden as prospects.  Must be blind, was a corner not drafted in the 1st round in 2019?

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

15 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

So, in one year's time, the remaining average per-year cap hits on those 5 players is $107.67 mil.

 

Insane. 

 

One of my complaints about the FanSpeak system is they automatically generate the contracts for you. You just plug in the APY and number of years, and it structures the contract from there. My guess is that they base it off some sort of formula of average contracts signed. It seems ludicrous, but there's no reason to think the first year cap hits on those deals are all that far off TBH. What would happen, though, is those free agents become centerpieces of the team going forward, and you likely have to cut a Landon Collins next year to start freeing up space to accommodate those contracts, and you are unlikely to be able to add much in the way of future free agents. So you'd really need to keep nailing the draft picks.  That said, we do have quite a bit of cap space into the future, and if the second year cap hits on those players is as you say ... it eats up a good chunk of next year's available cap space.

 

Personally I would advocate away from Allen Robinson in any Dak scenario. Yes, it would be really enticing, but it would also probably mean you're in really tough cap shape in a couple years and trying to find ways to keep McLaurin around. The prudent move would probably be to draft a WR and get a guy in here in FA that's a lot cheaper short-term contract.

 

Anyway, IF Dak were to hit FA and we are unsettled at QB, I would have no issue with that contract. But I would probably avoid the big contracts to David and Robinson and try and get more value in FA at those positions while building the rest through the draft, as to prevent a cap hell going forward. And even if Dak avereaged $45m a year going forward, it would still leave you with cap space into the future to retain your guys.

[SemperFi Skins]

can't understand the love for Dak.... guy's had stacked teams and they all amounted to crap. For the money he wants, he'll be extremely overpaid for mediocrity. Now, coming off a serious injury, no way.

 

I actually enjoying playing against him, Wentz, and Jones.... I think they're all mediocre. Let them all stay where they're at.

[tmandoug1]

Dak for 5yr 200mil contract? No thanks........

[Skinsinparadise]

I watched some Davis Mills, QB, from Stanford.  I noticed he's a chic dark horse pick from some media draft geek types.  Brugler for example has him rated higher than Trask.

 

My quick take.  Not a bad backup type.  Every now and then we see a dude like Nick Mullins start out of nowhere, and while they aren't great, they have a game from time to time where they look decently.  Mills strikes me as a dude who could be that kind of guy.  He needs though IMO a strong offensive line to do ok.  He's a rythmn type thrower who needs all the parts working around him, not an off script guy.  

 

Positives

Throws with anticipation

Takes snaps under center in the mix so no adjustment needed to that in the pros

Good accuracy up the middle in between the numbers

Arm strength seems decent

PFF gave him a sick deep ball grade. A 97.

Has nice size, looks the part

I like how he uses his body language, looks off sometimes his first read, but sometimes still stares at his first read

Good touch, catchable ball

 

Negatives

His foot speed is at best average and he's not an off script kind of guy

Nothing really wows you as for attributes

Not hot under pressure.  He doesn't unravel but he doesn't look hot avoiding pass rushers

Has some Haskins in him as for doesn't seem to readjust his footwork well when flushed out of the pocket

He struggles with some of the quick out route throws (similar to haskins in that way), his accuracy on those are inconsistent.

Not much experience

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

One of my complaints about the FanSpeak system is they automatically generate the contracts for you. You just plug in the APY and number of years, and it structures the contract from there. My guess is that they base it off some sort of formula of average contracts signed. It seems ludicrous, but there's no reason to think the first year cap hits on those deals are all that far off TBH. What would happen, though, is those free agents become centerpieces of the team going forward, and you likely have to cut a Landon Collins next year to start freeing up space to accommodate those contracts, and you are unlikely to be able to add much in the way of future free agents. So you'd really need to keep nailing the draft picks.  That said, we do have quite a bit of cap space into the future, and if the second year cap hits on those players is as you say ... it eats up a good chunk of next year's available cap space.

Just to break it down a little bit- According to OTC, we currently have $105m available in 2022. Assuming the June 1 cut for Smith and releasing Collins next offseason, that adds 27m. Subtracting that 107m figure leaves us 25 mil. But let's assume those contracts are even a little more backloaded (which is even more insane, as I'll get to in a minute). So, we have about 35 mil available, minus this year's draft class, next year's draft class and Payne's 5th year option. So, maybe 15 mil? With the following FAs- Jon Allen, Logan Thomas, Cornelius Lucas, JD McKissic, Peyton Barber, Tim Settle. 

 

Probably the idea would be to resign Allen and Thomas (would have to do more backloading to fit them in) and letting everyone else go.

 

So, 2023- the 5 you signed probably cost about $113 mil or so by now. The top 3 guys under contract for that year (Fuller, Young, Roullier) cost about 34 mil. Throw in those Allen and Thomas deals and a couple of draft classes, Sweat's 5th year option and how much cap do we have left? With 11 players plus a couple of draft classes under contract. Let's assume the cap goes way up by then, so maybe $60 mil to fill out the roster? Seems ridiculously optimistic, but even if so, we have that much to sign or replace Payne, McLaurin, Moses, Ioannidis, Schweitzer, Holcomb, Everett. With Sweat due for an extension. 

 

Point is, however you want to structure those deals, if we sign the 5 you want, those 3 new additions better put us in the Super Bowl, because all we're going to be able to do, cap-wise, for the next several offseason is shed talent. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Just to break it down a little bit- According to OTC, we currently have $105m available in 2022. Assuming the June 1 cut for Smith and releasing Collins next offseason, that adds 27m. Subtracting that 107m figure leaves us 25 mil. But let's assume those contracts are even a little more backloaded (which is even more insane, as I'll get to in a minute). So, we have about 35 mil available, minus this year's draft class, next year's draft class and Payne's 5th year option. So, maybe 15 mil? With the following FAs- Jon Allen, Logan Thomas, Cornelius Lucas, JD McKissic, Peyton Barber, Tim Settle. 

 

Probably the idea would be to resign Allen and Thomas (would have to do more backloading to fit them in) and letting everyone else go.

 

So, 2023- the 5 you signed probably cost about $113 mil or so by now. The top 3 guys under contract for that year (Fuller, Young, Roullier) cost about 34 mil. Throw in those Allen and Thomas deals and a couple of draft classes, Sweat's 5th year option and how much cap do we have left? With 11 players plus a couple of draft classes under contract. Let's assume the cap goes way up by then, so maybe $60 mil to fill out the roster? Seems ridiculously optimistic, but even if so, we have that much to sign or replace Payne, McLaurin, Moses, Ioannidis, Schweitzer, Holcomb, Everett. With Sweat due for an extension. 

 

Point is, however you want to structure those deals, if we sign the 5 you want, those 3 new additions better put us in the Super Bowl, because all we're going to be able to do, cap-wise, for the next several offseason is shed talent. 

Personally, beyond re-signing Scherff and our RFAs/ERFAs (and maybe Darby), I’ve got just 1 real box I want checked in FA - a good ILB.  Otherwise, add some cheap competition/depth and roll cap over to be able to afford our future re-signings.  Especially don’t wanna load down our cap when we don’t even have a (proven) qb.

To be fair to his point though, JMU said he’d ditch Robinson (and his massive contract), and the two 3 year deals would be up prior to the 2024 season.  If the guaranteed money is low, those two could be axed after year 2 of their contracts.  Good amount of wiggle room in that case, even if it’s not my preference.

 

Edit:  crap, just realized this is the draft thread... my bad.  Adding to that convo, I really hope we wind up with a(nother) good ILB via the draft, along with a high upside slot receiver.  Going something like LT in the 1st, ILB in the 2nd, receiver and corner in the 3rd sounds pretty good to me.

Edited February 17, 2021 by skinny21

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I got all excited about Grant from the Senior Bowl.  Watched some cutups, the abilities he showed at Senior Bowl practices weren't asked of him in college.  I didn't really like how they used him in college, it didn't seem to play to his strengths, and it was a little difficult to tell how strong his strengths actually were or weren't.  I still like Grant, but not in the 1st or 2nd rounds.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Saw some of Surtain to compare him to Horn.  Horn's the versatile corner while Surtain was basically locked into either LCB for the game or RCB for the game.  WIthin a game it did not look like they ever swapped his side.  His responsibilities seemed fairly basic, wasn't asked to do funky zone stuff, just the ordinary 10 yards off coverage and you've got a Deep 1/3rd, or press man, some slide shuffle.

 

To be honest, I watched film, but I still can't tell you how I think of him as a prospect.  Teams liked picking on other areas of Alabama's defense, and sometimes you can't really see how Surtain is moving down the field with his guy because of that.  For example, Notre Dame's identity is all about winning at the LoS with runs, screens, read options, some misdirection, etc.  That was just not a match up that was going to tell me much about Surtain.

 

I still don't have a feel for how he reacts to a receiver getting a step on him, or how he looks getting out of slide shuffle.  I like Horn better right now, but that's mostly because I don't know enough about Surtain to have an opinion.

 

A pity there's no combine.

[PartyPosse]

4 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Saw some of Surtain to compare him to Horn.  Horn's the versatile corner while Surtain was basically locked into either LCB for the game or RCB for the game.  WIthin a game it did not look like they ever swapped his side.  His responsibilities seemed fairly basic, wasn't asked to do funky zone stuff, just the ordinary 10 yards off coverage and you've got a Deep 1/3rd, or press man, some slide shuffle.

 

To be honest, I watched film, but I still can't tell you how I think of him as a prospect.  Teams liked picking on other areas of Alabama's defense, and sometimes you can't really see how Surtain is moving down the field with his guy because of that.  For example, Notre Dame's identity is all about winning at the LoS with runs, screens, read options, some misdirection, etc.  That was just not a match up that was going to tell me much about Surtain.

 

I still don't have a feel for how he reacts to a receiver getting a step on him, or how he looks getting out of slide shuffle.  I like Horn better right now, but that's mostly because I don't know enough about Surtain to have an opinion.

 

A pity there's no combine.

Surtain was barely targeted because Josh Jobe took a bit of a step back. The only game  I remember him really struggling was against Florida and against Pitts/Toney.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Surtain was barely targeted because Josh Jobe took a bit of a step back. The only game  I remember him really struggling was against Florida and against Pitts/Toney.

 

I'll need to look for that one.

[PartyPosse]

18 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I'll need to look for that one.

 

[Chump Bailey]

Pitts is so good. 

I would not be devastated in the least to not come away with a DB in the first round. IMO, this is a pretty deep class of guys that could be very good. I'd take Asante Samuel in the 2nd without a second glance back in all honesty. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Chump Bailey

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Point is, however you want to structure those deals, if we sign the 5 you want, those 3 new additions better put us in the Super Bowl, because all we're going to be able to do, cap-wise, for the next several offseason is shed talent. 

 

Really helpful exercise. I may go through and execute it in OTC at some point and see how exactly that plays out, but you're right. And for the record, I am not advocating for that path. It is simply a "push all the chips to the middle" strategy in which you really go for it in 2021 and 2022.
 

I am much more conservative when it comes to free agency. I DO, however, think that the cap can be worked and money can be backloaded and pushed off. And in your example, each time someone is signed or comes due for an extension, you spread it out even more. So by the time Sweat/Payne are being extended, David is off the books. Robinson is at a point he can be re-structured to extend him a bit further and spread his hits out. And of course, as many good teams do, you start letting some good players go, get comp picks, draft and develop, etc. etc.

 

But going big and back-loading tons of money has not been our style of late, and I don't expect it to be our style going forward either.

 

The teams that have done that (Dallas, Atlanta, New Orleans, Philly) now find themselves in pretty tough binds. BUT, a lot of that is due to the fact that the projected cap went from like $220m to $180m pre-covid to post-covid. While those teams would be able to make it work with that extra $40m, they're definitely gonna be forced to take their lumps as a result of the unplanned massive drop.

Edited February 17, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[duffy]

Interesting take on the QBs... 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-draft-trevor-lawrence-qb-3-thats-how-one-former-nfl-coach-grades-him-205523234.html

June Jones, former Falcons and Chargers head coach, rates two quarterback prospects ahead of Lawrence in the 2021 NFL draft class.

 

[bakedtater1]

Who is the absolute best stud starter game changer linebacker coming out in this year's draft?... how would everyone feel if Ron traded up 4 to 6 spots to get him?...I would have no problem with it..imagine if we can add an absolute stud in the draft and pick up lavonte David in free agency.

[Skinsinparadise]

New mock I played with, now i actually have to watch Horn versus going purely on the write ups.  😀

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, bakedtater1 said:

Who is the absolute best stud starter game changer linebacker coming out in this year's draft?... how would everyone feel if Ron traded up 4 to 6 spots to get him?...I would have no problem with it..imagine if we can add an absolute stud in the draft and pick up lavonte David in free agency.

 

You don't think Cole Holcomb should get playing time?  I think that guy is continuing to develop and deserves a shot at OLB or MLB.  But big improvements need to happen to one of the other spots.  I'd be fine with Lavonte David, as long as it's not exorbitant.  The Free Agent form the Buffalo Bills, Matt MIlano is supposed to be pretty good.

 

As for stud LB?  I don't think there's one that checks all of the boxes in this draft.  That's not to say without good coaching a LB drafted in the 2nd round or something can't be amazing.  Darius Leonard is a recent example.  Bobby Wagner, Eric Kendricks, and Lavonte David are older ones.  I'm against drafting a LB in the 1st, unless they check all of the boxes.

[DWinzit]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

New mock I played with, now i actually have to watch Horn versus going purely on the write ups.  😀

 

 

Nice. Starting corner, LT, MLB awesome #2 all around TE and lost of WR talent. I like Schwartz the best, we'd have a good slot!!! 

 

@KDawg's Werner. I have been studying him up and must admit, he is much better than I realized. He flew under the radar some with all the LB's like the eh Borland and much better looking than Browning when being able to key on him. He is quicker and more instinctive than I gave him credit for.

[bakedtater1]

26 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

You don't think Cole Holcomb should get playing time?  I think that guy is continuing to develop and deserves a shot at OLB or MLB.  But big improvements need to happen to one of the other spots.  I'd be fine with Lavonte David, as long as it's not exorbitant.  The Free Agent form the Buffalo Bills, Matt MIlano is supposed to be pretty good.

 

As for stud LB?  I don't think there's one that checks all of the boxes in this draft.  That's not to say without good coaching a LB drafted in the 2nd round or something can't be amazing.  Darius Leonard is a recent example.  Bobby Wagner, Eric Kendricks, and Lavonte David are older ones.  I'm against drafting a LB in the 1st, unless they check all of the boxes.

Thanks for the response yes I definitely think Cole should get a spot so while I was posting that I was thinking who would need to go then but I like your take on a linebacker in the second round I think we might have the coaching staff to turn a second-rounder into a stud LOL.. and I agree not taking a linebacker in the first if he doesn't check all the boxes