How to Win the NFC East - Consistently

[HTTRDynasty]

So I just finished reading this excellent article on The Athletic:

 

 

It focuses on how teams in the AFC West (and, to a lesser extent, the AFC as a whole) will have to approach the offseason with an eye towards stopping Mahomes and the Chiefs with every move they make.  Here are some excerpts:

 

"As the clock wound down on Sunday’s AFC title game, I felt terrible for Raiders GM Mike Mayock, Broncos GM John Elway and Chargers GM Tom Telesco. Not because they were watching the Conference Championship game from their couches, but because they had to watch a generational talent in Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes take over the game, knowing that their chances of getting to any Super Bowl depend upon solving the riddle of defending Mahomes.

...

All four teams need a complete examination, from how they were built to their schemes to their coaching style. This is not a one-day project for any pro personnel department, but rather an intensive autopsy of each team, with a complete summary of what made them so resilient, what contributed to winning, what moves they made that allowed them to offset injuries, how they operated in camp and during the season and what was the underlying factor to their success. Understanding how they were able to climb this incredibly tough mountain allows their competitors to learn something that might help them reach the top next season.

 

Former Raiders owner Al Davis understood this project more than anyone — he was the architect of the analysis. He was relentless in his quest for understanding the opponent, and more specifically his AFC West opponents. When he woke up each day, his mind was always on the AFC West. If Al were alive to watch Patrick Mahomes play, he would be spending most of his day trying to understand how to build his team to best compete with the quarterback. (He would also be cursing the fact that his team did not draft him.)

 

Mahomes is not like any other NFL quarterback. He is the new Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, as all roads leading to the playoffs or Super Bowl will need to pass through Kansas City for the next 10 years. The Mahomes Problem is not going away; it will become more significant with each passing year. The gap in the AFC West will only widen unless teams fully understand that beating Mahomes does not start on game days or with a general gameplan, it begins in the offseason with detailed, specific planning. It starts with having a detailed grading system to help eliminate players who don’t fit the criteria set forth to help neutralize Mahomes’ style of play. Davis would always ask: can this player help us beat Elway or Brady? If the answer wasn’t a clear cut yes, then the player had zero chance to gain his interest.

 

Davis was all about the matchups in the division. When former Broncos coach Mike Shanahan started the outside zone trend with bootlegs, Davis became obsessed with defending the movement of the quarterback, the backside of the zone read, and most of all, the shots down the field. His focus then was more on the scheme than the talent. He would continuously ask the defensive coaches who had the boot on every call. He would try to understand how they taught the fundamentals of the outside zone, what the back was reading, what step did he decide to cut. Every single detail was on Davis’ mind, night and day.

 

The problem the Chiefs currently present is much different. Dealing with Mahomes is not about the scheme, it’s about his ability. Yes, head coach Andy Reid runs a diverse system that highlights the talent of his offense which features incredible speed. But on Sunday, that scheme was not what destroyed the Titans. It was the second play within the original play call — the ad-lib plays. The breaking of the pocket, the runs for first downs, the throws down the field on the move, the sidearm, pinpoint accurate third-down conversions, the decision making, the timing, the deep drops to avoid the rush, then making any throw to any part of the field. Those skills are generational for football fans to enjoy. For opponents, they’re a nightmare.

 

Teams must understand that coverage is never going to stop Mahomes. Drafting corners might look good on paper but once again, if the play breaks down, all hell breaks loose no matter how well the defensive backs perform. No one play can cover anyone for five seconds, which is what occurs when the pocket breaks down. There is only one solution to dealing with Mahomes in the short- and long-term: It all starts up front. The defensive line is the kryptonite for any generational quarterback.  And not just any defensive lineman — the line must be made of guys who can specifically handle the problems Mahomes presents.

 

Therefore, a team must have an extremely athletic defensive line that is in excellent physical condition. Large, out of shape linemen won’t cut it. They will tire too quickly and lack the speed to chase him down. The defensive line must have length and look like five NBA power forwards. They must be able to play with power and push the tackles back to make the space that Mahomes operates in small. They also must close down quickly once Mahomes escapes, which means anyone who cannot run sub 4.8 won’t help slow him down.

 

Every player in the front seven must be able to run exceptionally well as there can be no one on defense who would not be an elite special teams player. Why special teams? Because of Mahomes’ ability to threaten the width and length of the field with his arm and feet. The game with him always seems to become a fast break game in basketball. When the play breaks down, the game becomes wide open like a punt or kickoff return; therefore, every player must be fast, under control and able to tackle well in space. Those are the requirements for any great special teams player, which also happens to be a requirement for dealing with Mahomes. When you think of stopping Mahomes, you must remember: great speed, tackling in space and conditioning. Each one is as important as the other."

 

Luckily for the 49ers, they built their team to contend with Russell Wilson (and now Kyler Murray) for the division, and they now have the studs on the DL to contend with Mahomes' speed and maneuverability in the Super Bowl.

 

 

But circling back to the Redskins: obviously, it's not a groundbreaking thought that you need to build your team to win the division.  But I think we on this Forum sometimes get lost in trying to build the best team in a vacuum without considering how those moves help us become perennial division winners.  The best teams know what their division opponents do well and seek to counter that, starting in the offseason.

 

So, to that effect, I wanted to see if I could get some discussion going on how we can best focus on building our roster to become a perennial powerhouse in the NFCE.  Obviously, that focus currently starts with how we match up with Dallas and Philly.  Both teams have top 10-12 QB's IMO - both of whom are mobile - with legitimate weapons around them.  Luckily for us, both QB's will be taking up a significant portion of their teams' cap starting this offseason, which will make their overall teams weaker, but it's still up to us to take advantage of that.  Both teams have top 5 OL's.  Both teams have offensive-minded head coaches. 

 

What is the best approach we can take for us to consistently beat these teams?  I think we already have a good start by focusing on building up the DL.  Once we draft Young, we should have two DE's athletic enough to chase around Dak and Wentz and not have to worry about them running circles around our front like they did when we had Kerrigan and Smith as starters.  I do worry about Jonathan Allen's relative lack of athleticism, but I think we're athletic enough elsewhere to hide that weakness.

 

If Dallas re-signs Cooper, and the Eagles draft a WR in the 1st round (I see Ruggs consistently being mocked to them), I think we need to find a speedy CB or CBs to contend with those players (Gallup and D Jax are also reasons for this).  I don't have faith in the CBs we currently have to stick with speedy WRs who are also elite route-runners (Dunbar has been burned by Cooper multiple times).

 

We also have to contend with Zeke and the emergence of Miles Sanders, who came on strong at the end of last year, and will be a headache to deal with going forward.  That's where having rangy LB's come into play.  I hope we address this in FA.

 

I'll end the post here before it gets any longer, but I'm interested to see how others view our division and gather thoughts on how we can become consistent division champs, starting with the moves we make this offseason.  I didn't get into how our offense matches up with their defenses, but hopefully we'll get some good discussion there as well. 

 

I want to keep this thread focused on how each move we make helps us counteract what we see as the strengths of our division opponents, so please focus on that aspect in your replies.

[Warhead36]

"I don't wanna be a product of my environment. I want my environment to be a product of me." -Frank Costello from Departed

 

Basically, forget adapting to the division. Lets make them adapt to us.

 

Chase Young means the rest of the division better have studs on their OL for the next decade.

[HTTRDynasty]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

"I don't wanna be a product of my environment. I want my environment to be a product of me." -Frank Costello from Departed

 

Basically, forget adapting to the division. Lets make them adapt to us.

 

Chase Young means the rest of the division better have studs on their OL for the next decade.

 

That sounds good and all, but the reality is that if you're not able to counteract the strengths within your division, your weaknesses will be exposed over and over again.

 

There's no way to plug every hole.  Your team will always have a weakness, whether that be through lack of cap space or draft capital to address weak positions, or due to untimely injuries.

 

If you're not focusing your limited resources on nullifying the strengths of the opponents you face twice per year, you're not constructing your roster with an eye towards consistently winning the division and reaching the playoffs IMO.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

"I don't wanna be a product of my environment. I want my environment to be a product of me." -Frank Costello from Departed

 

Basically, forget adapting to the division. Lets make them adapt to us.

 

Chase Young means the rest of the division better have studs on their OL for the next decade.

 

I agree. 

 

I think the focus should be more broad in the sense that you want to build a team that can defeat the best teams, not just the teams' in your division.

 

But this thread is specifically asking about countering our division, so my reply there:

 

More focus on LBs (MIKE/SAM AND WILL). Find a SAM who is good off the edge but can space drop a little. 

 

Less focus on DL. We're okay there. We need to always put resources in, but they can be lesser for a short window. 

 

Need to find a faster CB.

 

But I think our offense is where we can gain a significant advantage in the division. 

 

1) Shore up the offensive line.

2) Shore up the Backers & Free Safety

 

An offense that can score points can beat up any of these teams and drop their morale in the snap of our fingers.

 

Dallas has the best defense of the crew, the also likely have the best offense... for now. So being able to stick with them on the scoreboard gives us a chance to keep our defense's heads in the game for a longer period.

[Pick6]

Drafting Young means you stop Wentz (will be injuries after one sack), Dak, and DJ from ever even getting the ball out of their hands effectively. Doesn’t matter what WRs they have. 
 

Look at Rodgers against the 49ers this past Sunday. 

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

That sounds good and all, but the reality is that if you're not able to counteract the strengths within your division, your weaknesses will be exposed over and over again.

 

There's no way to plug every hole.  Your team will always have a weakness, whether that be through lack of cap space or draft capital to address weak positions, or due to untimely injuries.

 

If you're not focusing your limited resources on nullifying the strengths of the opponents you face twice per year, you're not constructing your roster with an eye towards consistently winning the division and reaching the playoffs IMO.

Meh, there are no super scary game changers in our division on the level of a Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, etc. Best individual talent is probably Saquon and yeah, he's torched us, but his team's records have been as bad or worse than ours, so... /shrug

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Meh, there are no super scary game changers in our division on the level of a Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, etc. Best individual talent is probably Saquon and yeah, he's torched us, but his team's records have been as bad or worse than ours, so... /shrug

 

I agree there, but I'm looking at positional groups and roster strengths more so than any individual player.

 

I think Dallas' offense is much better than given credit for.  They had some bad luck in close games this season and just missed out on making the playoffs, but they were the 2nd ranked offense by DVOA (only behind the Ravens).  They were 19th in defense, and 6th overall.  That doesn't happen by accident or by having a lack of talent/playmakers.

[LD0506]

I'm a trenches guy, collapse the pocket and stifle the run would be a priority for me vis-a-vis the division. We have a good young crew on the DL, add Young and more speed at LB.

 

 

[Unbias]

50 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

I'm a trenches guy, collapse the pocket and stifle the run would be a priority for me vis-a-vis the division. We have a good young crew on the DL, add Young and more speed at LB.

 

I agree here, but we've spent a first round selection along the DL the past 3 years (Sweat was technically the 2nd pick last year, but still a first round). I'd say that specific group probably lost the trench battle with Dallas and Philly. I'm 100% behind drafting Young, but eventually you get to a point where rookie contracts are coming up and you aren't winning the trench war despite allocating a lot of resources in that direction. 

[bowhunter]

You don't always have to play to your strengths as long as you can play to your opponents weaknesses. There's a 53 man roster. You can't have 5 speedy D-lineman to counteract the next Mahomes and also have 6 beefeaters ready to rotate in when Zeke is lined up on a 3rd and 1.  And yes, I realize that there is not a Mahomes in our division THIS year, but each draft can bring a new set of parameters quickly. Then we would be completely unprepared until we can counter in the following drafts. So the best approach (IMO) is to build by adding talent and minimizing your weaknesses. So how can we best prepare to dominate in the NFC East??

COACHING.

    The right coach can not only implement his playing style to dominate in his forte, but can also adapt to expose weaknesses in the opponents roster. Coaches that can make real time adjustments. We've seen a fair amount of talent shine on other rosters when they looked very average under our coaches. For every horse on an opponents roster, there is also a pony and a poodle. Find their  Poodles.

 

(edit: This also broaches the topic of adding Young vs adding 3 other solid players in a trade. Only 1 Horse or upgrade 3 Poodles with 3 ponies?)

[LD0506]

29 minutes ago, Unbias said:

 

I agree here, but we've spent a first round selection along the DL the past 3 years (Sweat was technically the 2nd pick last year, but still a first round). I'd say that specific group probably lost the trench battle with Dallas and Philly. I'm 100% behind drafting Young, but eventually you get to a point where rookie contracts are coming up and you aren't winning the trench war despite allocating a lot of resources in that direction. 

 

And I'd say that at least part of the issue there falls on coaching, we haven't used what we have to greatest effect.

 

Yeah, we've invested a lot in the front, but I am still on board with adding Young, then let Del Rio and his minions deploy that weapon. Maybe dropping Sweat into coverage isn't the best way to use him?

 

If we get a defensive minded HC and a DC with a track record and they can't do anything with it, then something's got to give.

 

 

[Koolblue13]

Al Davis was going against Montana led Chiefs teams with Marcus Allen running the ball and the Broncos John Elway with Terrell Davis. The AFC west was insane in the 70's and 80's. Some of the greatest football ever played.

 

We play a gaggle of putzes. Nobody in the east is consistently dangerous. Nobody. We've got the players for a sound defense and possibly a good offense.

 

Haskins, McL, Guice, Love, Sims, Payne, Young, we've got some guys who could be real play making tone setters and really freaking young.

 

We are going to become the team those failures need to build to beat. 

[petey hodge]

The thread title sounds like a article on the front page of Cosmopolitan.

 

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

4 minutes ago, petey hodge said:

The thread title sounds like a article on the front page of Cosmopolitan.

 

Lol, I wouldn't know.  Never read it.

[SkinsFTW]

No team has won the NFCE consistently since the Eagles did soon after Snyder bought the Redskins.

 

I'm not sure that's going to change unless we get the next Brady, Rodgers, Peyton Manning.

[Going Commando]

Coverage is how the Patriots beat the Chiefs last season.  Stopping that offense is about the same things as stopping any great motion heavy spread.  Why is the article so fixated on Al Davis and the Raiders? He was an awful team builder for decades until he died and the Raiders became as big a punchline as us.  Any team that fills their roster up with great football players is going to dominate, no matter their style and position strengths and weaknesses and what the strengths and weaknesses of their division rivals are.

[KDawg]

@stevemcqueen1 ‘s point about coverage is absolutely where I am. And with the importance in both coverage and pass rush, I often wonder why linebackers that can rush and cover aren’t more coveted around the league. 
 

In this draft, a guy like Isaiah Simmons fits. Sean Taylor, while a FS, kinda was that player. There aren’t a ton of guys who can do all of that: Kuechly could as a MIKE. Thomas Davis has been that guy in the past. 
 

With TE heavy offenses (and really, TEs have always been a big part of passing games) can be slowed significantly with a LB who can cover. If that guy can rush, too, you increase his sack:rush ratio simply by him being well rounded. 
 

I know it’s not popular, but I think outside backers are extremely important in odd and even fronts. If you get special backers, you can have special seasons. 
 

I like more “good” players over “great” in the secondary. I want my DTs to be good to very good. I want my edge guys to be good. 
 

Obviously, doing the math, you’re not likely to get all of that. 

[Burgold]

This might be too obvious, but I see it all of a piece. Good coverage without pressure nets you nothing. Pressure without good coverage is equally wasteful. The Redskins are a pretty good example of that. In recent years, Washington has frequently been top ten in generating sacks. We've gotten pressure. At the same time, we've been bottom five in allowing third down conversions. So, all those sacks and pressures became meaningless. Likewise, we saw with Greg Blache (back when we had great corners and safeties) how good coverage doesn't matter if the QB has all day to throw it.

 

I have always thought the key was to having one great unit while maintaining a supporting unit that's at least good. More or equally, having units that work in harmony with each other. If the defense knows that they are sending 6 after the QB, then the coverages have to be able to accommodate and anticipate what a QB will likely do. If we're sending three, the same thing.

 

So, I guess what I'm really saying is that it is important for the units to be complimentary, but that it is most important for them to be smart in how they play.

 

Still, on the coverage/pressure side, I'd think I'd rather have good coverage/great pressure than great coverage/good pressure.

[KDawg]

8 minutes ago, Burgold said:

This might be too obvious, but I see it all of a piece. Good coverage without pressure nets you nothing. Pressure without good coverage is equally wasteful. The Redskins are a pretty good example of that. In recent years, Washington has frequently been top ten in generating sacks. We've gotten pressure. At the same time, we've been bottom five in allowing third down conversions. So, all those sacks and pressures became meaningless. Likewise, we saw with Greg Blache (back when we had great corners and safeties) how good coverage doesn't matter if the QB has all day to throw it.

 

I have always thought the key was to having one great unit while maintaining a supporting unit that's at least good. More or equally, having units that work in harmony with each other. If the defense knows that they are sending 6 after the QB, then the coverages have to be able to accommodate and anticipate what a QB will likely do. If we're sending three, the same thing.

 

So, I guess what I'm really saying is that it is important for the units to be complimentary, but that it is most important for them to be smart in how they play.

 

Still, on the coverage/pressure side, I'd think I'd rather have good coverage/great pressure than great coverage/good pressure.

 

I'm on board with this take. And this is why I don't think having an "elite" corner is necessary. Having good ones is important, though.

 

So with that said, if you're asking me to choose between elite corner or elite edge, I'm choosing elite edge. If you're asking me to choose elite corner vs. elite edge vs. elite LB, I might take the elite LB. 

 

The elite LB plays a role in both the coverage and the pass rush. Especially an elite level OLB. They have a lower cost than an elite corner or edge as well. So they take part in both sides of the equation. 

 

Balance is the key to a good defense. All of the good ones have always had balance. 

 

I'm with ya, Burg. 

[Koolblue13]

Having an elite edge, will make a good CB look great. I don't think it works as well the other way.

[bakedtater1]

It starts with **** canning bruce allen... I'd say we're off to a good start.

[OVCChairman]

Matchups matchups matchups.... 

 

Who kills us inside our division?  Ertz?  Why?  Because we don't have anyone who can match up with him and shut him down, or even slow us down.  Zeke?  Saquan? Those three guys torment us, and if you can slow them down, you can effect the whole game.   Philly had a former QB rookie and Robert Davis starting at WR for them when we played them and Ertz and Goedert went averaged over 10 YPC.  Saquan absolutely manhandled us.  This is where I find myself, like I've said in other posts, seriously intrigued by Simmons.  He literally has the ability to hang with all 3 of these guys.  He's not much smaller than Ertz (Simmons is 6'4 230 / Ertz is 6'5 249), and he's as fast as Barkely (4.4 @ combine) and Zeke (4.47).  I actually am getting frustrated with myself for continuing to beat this drum, I just keep looking at it and wondering... 

 

On offense....

 

 

Terry Mclaurin had 27 catches for roughly 400 yards in 4 games vs Divisional opponents this year.  It's no accident that a lot of those yards came on big plays.  The ability to stretch the field on these teams is there.  Philly and NYG are in rough shape on the back side of their defense, they're very beatable... Dallas is a bit more of a task, but it also depends on what they do with the interior of their line and their LBs.  You can beat them outside and intermediate, but you need weapons.   At the end of the day, speed kills.  I want to look at a later round receiving back.  CT is gone and I HOPE Love can be a game breaker like that, but we can only speculate how he translates to the next level.  I think he'll be good, but we just don't know.  Having a guy who can take a screen to the house is imperative.... like Miles Sanders.  

 

Stop those D-lines from coming down hill.  You CANNOT let allow Dallas and Philly to read and react... you have to get them moving side to side... 

[Thinking Skins]

I think this is kinda interesting but kinda on some Booger McFarland type stuff. I would love to talk about winning our division and what it takes to consistently do it, or at least consistently be in the competition to be playing meaningful football in late November and December. And we can look at it and say that the NFC East is a different animal than some other divisions like say the NFC South where there are more passing offenses, but I don't know how true that is. 

 

I think the three most important things to being consistent in the league are a good (great) QB, a good (great) defense, and a good (great) running game. Unsurprisingly we haven't really been great in any of those areas since at least the last time we were in the playoffs, and even then our defense was still putrid. In 2018 we had the running game but no QB and no defense. In 2017 and every other year under Gruden minus his first, we had really good QB play and no running game and no defense. 

 

Other teams like Dallas has hit on all those areas and they're consistently in competition. Unfortunately they've had poor coaching and injuries at RB. Philly has been the most consistent in our division with wins in the playoffs to match their power, but their QB play has teered toward dominance at times (with him being an MVP candidate at one time) to just bad. And they've never really been able to establish any kind of a running game with any consistency. 

 

But my question becomes if we were to try to be a KC type offense, could we re-define the NFC East? I think back to how Minnesota tried to redefine  the NFC North/Central with their passing offense under Randall Cunningham and Randy Moss and Chris Carter that led them to 15-1, but they lost in the playoffs. But they did win their division. Similarly, GB has consistently been able to put up 12+ win seasons under Aaron Rodgers and not much else in that same division that was once known for their running games and defense. And it seems that's the way of both that division and the league. 

 

There are teams like Seattle, LA Rams, and SF who define their division (NFC West) by a grind it out running style. And Tennessee just showed that a power back who can keep a dominant QB off the field can really do things in the playoffs. But we just saw in LA how the loss of that lead back can really hurt the offense. Similarly we saw how just focusing on stopping that back and getting a big enough lead can make those one-dimensional teams non-competitive. 

 

So I think what it'll take to consistently win this division is legit QB play. Problem is that there are more teams than there are good QBs. Sometimes a good coordinator can hide a QBs flaws long enough, or a bad QB can go on a streak where they're playing outside themselves long enough. We thought Cousins could be that QB but he never separated himself from the other QBs in the east. Dallas thinks that Prescott can and Philly thinks Wentz can. Wentz may be the closest but his injuries are a liability, as are their inability to address the WR and RB positions.

 

So a serious question is can Haskins become a threat that other teams plan against. What are his tendancies? What are his weaknesses? How good is he at beating the blitz? Can he fall without taking a hit? Can he run out of bounds? Can he make plays when the pocket breaks down? 

[Going Commando]

4 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Having an elite edge, will make a good CB look great. I don't think it works as well the other way.

 

It works both ways.  Take the Packers for evidence.  ZaDarius and Preston Smith are decent players who look like All Pros because of that secondary.

 

If you don't have DBs and LBers that can hide coverages, scare WRs and TEs in the middle zones, make QBs hesitate or look off options, or match up in single coverage, then it's too easy to neutralize rush by moving pockets/protections and/or using a one step drop game from shotgun.

 

There is a chess match going on between OC & QB & WRs vs DC & back seven on every snap that is independent of and equally important to the warfare happening at the line of scrimmage.  You've got to have DBs that can compete to stop a good passing offense, no matter who you have on your defensive line.  That's why having three, four, five good players beats having one great one.

[Darth Tater]

Since about 2007, pretty much be consistently mediocre, ask Dallas.  Heck, remember our bad 2011 team swept the Giants. In 2018, even with all the injuries, we were still just a bad officiating call away (so admitted by the NFL) from the last game of the season being meaningful to us.