The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[tshile]

6 minutes ago, The Annoying Buzz said:

 

But will then yell about how horribly our veterans are treated by the evil Veterans Administration, you know, the actual government-run health care.

know several people who have had to rely on military healthcare. Every single one has horror stories. So do you. 
 

I’ve never heard anything good about the VA either. In fact I seem to recall they were in multi-year long controversies over how inadequate and incompetent they are/were

[TheGreatBuzz]

8 minutes ago, tshile said:

know several people who have had to rely on military healthcare. Every single one has horror stories. So do you. 
 

I’ve never heard anything good about the VA either. In fact I seem to recall they were in multi-year long controversies over how inadequate and incompetent they are/were

 

Oh I know.  And that's why I'm against government run health care.  I was more pointing out their stupidity in what they argue for and against.  

 

And I must give credit where it is due, I also have some good VA experiences.

[PeterMP]

6 hours ago, tshile said:

know several people who have had to rely on any part of the US healthcare. Every single one has horror stories.

 

Fixed

[tshile]

4 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

Fixed

I know lots of people that have had great experiences with healthcare in this country

 

including people that were screwed over by the military healthcare 

[TradeTheBeal!]

If there’s anything the healthcare debate needs more of, it’s personal anecdotes.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Was going to post this in the random thought thread, but I thought Sears’ last Christmas was years ago…

 

🤨

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/29/business/sears-last-christmas/index.html

[The Evil Genius]

 

[Captain Wiggles]

Unpossible I was promised a historic recession. 🤪

 

 

 

[Jabbyrwock]

15 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

Unpossible I was promised a historic recession. 🤪

 

Check your hair line.

[Ball Security]

34 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Hmm, maybe this report is what triggered a +500 Dow midday swing.

[EmirOfShmo]

22 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Hmm, maybe this report is what triggered a +500 Dow midday swing.

Also the rail strike has been averted...

[Ball Security]

1 minute ago, EmirOfShmo said:

Also the rail strike has been averted...

Yep and Powell talking about a smaller interest rate hike.  Nonetheless it’s nice to see green numbers instead of red.

[PleaseBlitz]

U.S. gas prices plunge toward $3 a gallon as demand drops worldwide
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/30/gas-prices-drop-russia-oil/
 

Quote

The cost of gasoline is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of drivers, defying earlier projections and offering an unexpected gift for the holidays.

 

Filling up is now as cheap as it was in February, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine touched off a global energy crisis. AAA reported the average nationwide price of a gallon of regular Wednesday was $3.50, and gas price tracking company GasBuddy projected it could drop below $3 by Christmas. And all of that relief probably helped drive robust shopping over Thanksgiving weekend.

 

“People are realizing that they might be back to spending $50 to fill their tank instead of $80,” said Emma Rasiel, a professor of economics at Duke University. “It is the main signal consumers notice on inflation. It is the one thing they are likely to track, how much it has gone up or down, because every week they need to fill up their car.”

 

[Ball Security]

3 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

U.S. gas prices plunge toward $3 a gallon as demand drops worldwide
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/30/gas-prices-drop-russia-oil/
 

 

Weird.  Tucker told us that we’d be out of Diesel by Thanksgiving.  On another note, after today’s rally, the Dow is up year over year.  Still down YTD, but up from 12/1/21.

[Larry]

7 hours ago, Ball Security said:

On another note, after today’s rally, the Dow is up year over year.  Still down YTD, but up from 12/1/21.

 

Clearly proof that the Republicans merely mentioning holding kangaroo courts on Hunter Biden and Anthony Fauci is sufficient to reverse Biden's deliberate destruction of the economy.  

 

[skinsmarydu]

13 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

U.S. gas prices plunge toward $3 a gallon as demand drops worldwide
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/30/gas-prices-drop-russia-oil/
 

 

I was gonna mention this...I filled up 2 weeks ago (I live 5 miles from work, even with the new job) at $3.13...it's $2.85 at the same QT now.  I'm still at 3/4 of a tank, gonna go fill up again.  Won't be much, but I feel like cheating the system. 

[The Evil Genius]

Sigh..California gas prices are still the insane outlier. $4.35 at Costco on Sunday. 

[Larry]

32 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

Sigh..California gas prices are still the insane outlier. $4.35 at Costco on Sunday. 

Just wondering how much of that is tax. 
 

Granted, my experience with California consists of spending 5 days in Los Angeles. But I remember the price of gas suddenly changing by a dollar a gallon, depending on where I was. I assume that has to be because of a tax. 

[The Evil Genius]

12 minutes ago, Larry said:

Just wondering how much of that is tax. 
 

Granted, my experience with California consists of spending 5 days in Los Angeles. But I remember the price of gas suddenly changing by a dollar a gallon, depending on where I was. I assume that has to be because of a tax. 

 

Partly tax, also partly due to the unique refining blend that is needed to reduce smog. And also just because doing business in California is just more expensive.

 

 

 

Edit..Looks like gas dropped to $4.19 at Costco this morning. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by The Evil Genius

[China]

U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs in November, the latest sign of the economy’s strength.

 

America’s jobs engine kept churning in November, the Labor Department reported Friday, a show of continued demand for workers despite the Federal Reserve’s push to curb inflation by tamping down hiring.

 

Employers created 263,000 jobs, even as a wave of layoffs in the tech industry made headlines. That was only a slight drop from the revised figure of 284,000 for October.

 

The unemployment rate was steady at 3.7 percent, while wages have risen 5.1 percent over the year, more than expected.

 

The labor market has been surprisingly resilient in the face of successive interest rate increases by the Fed, adding an average of 323,000 jobs for the last six months.

 

But economists found reasons for concern in the evidence that growth is now largely coming from service sectors like education, health care and hospitality, which powered November’s job gains. Hiring in industries most sensitive to rising borrowing costs, like construction and manufacturing, started to level off, and workers put in fewer hours during the average week.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Larry]

Jobs added, per month, in thousands:  

 

Biden:  479

Trump :  -54

 

Trump, first 3 years:  181

Three years prior to Trump:  224

 

-----

 

But don't worry.  Now that the Republicans have the power to break things, they have a plan to stop that.  

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Larry

[China]

The economy just doesn’t make sense anymore

 

There’s no consistent story to tell about the economy right now. If you look at housing, everything’s a disaster. If you look at consumer spending, everything’s plugging along. If you look at the labor market, things are looking pretty phenomenal.

 

“There seem to be three different economies out there,” said Ethan Harris, global economist at Bank of America, in an interview. “You’ve got a housing market in recession, you’ve got a consumer who’s hanging in, and then you’ve got a hot labor market.”

 

The economy has been a bit of a conundrum to unpack for a while now, after the pandemic tossed multiple segments into disarray across the globe. In the United States, there was a quick but deep recession as millions of workers were laid off, businesses were shuttered, and the economy ground to a halt. The subsequent rebound has been unpredictable, to say the least. (Remember the lumber shortage? What about when nobody could find dumbbells?)

 

The stock market soared throughout much of 2020 and 2021, only to sputter in 2022. Supply chain disruptions have eased, though the system remains far from perfect. Plenty of parts of the economy are quite robust, but everyone feels terrible about it anyway. Even so, many consumers are spending through it.

 

High inflation, which many policymakers hoped would be temporary, has stuck. The housing market that was booming until recently is now slowing due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes meant to curb inflation. There are now real fears that those efforts will lead to a recession, as they have in the past. Still, a major economic contraction doesn’t appear to be here — yet.

 

“I’m going to courageously go out on a limb and say we’re 50/50 on a recession,” joked Jason Furman, an economist and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under the Obama administration, in an interview.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by China

[Renegade7]

Seems like every month the economy is adding more jobs then "expected".

 

This "trying to speak the recession into existence" thing is getting really old.

[gbear]

Just remember we economists have predicted 4 of the last 3 recessions, and we only mis-timed 2 of them.

[China]

Inflation dips in November, as gasoline savings eclipse grocery price increases

 

Americans are saving money at the gas pump, only to spend it in the produce aisle.

 

Gasoline and grocery prices moved in opposite directions last month, as the overall inflation rate declined slightly. Consumer prices in November were up 7.1% from a year ago, compared to an annual increase of 7.7% the month before.

 

It was the smallest 12-month increase since December of last year.

 

The inflation figures were released Tuesday by the Labor Department, just as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates for the seventh time in nine months on Wednesday.

 

For a year, Americans have seen racing inflation eat away at their savings and add to their credit card debt. A key source of pain was costly gasoline.

 

But gasoline prices dropped 2% between October and November and gas is now selling for less than it was a year ago, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

As fuel prices fall, however, food prices have been climbing. Grocery prices rose 0.5% in November, led by a whopping 8.9% jump in the price of lettuce.

 

While food and energy prices are notoriously volatile, the prices of many other goods appear to be stabilizing. Used car prices fell 2.9% between October and November, while new car prices were flat.

 

Likewise, there are signs that housing inflation has begun to ease. Rents are still rising much faster than they were before the pandemic, but not at the breakneck pace they were in the spring.

 

Shelter costs rose 0.6% in November, down from 0.8% the month before.

 

Click on the link for the full article