2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[PartyPosse]

25 minutes ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

OK so what do you do if Cindy takes Barrow and then someone offers you 2 #1s and a 2 for your pick and you know the Gisnts will take Young?

I would but only to someone like Miami for 5, 19 and 38

[kingdaddy]

53 minutes ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

OK so what do you do if Cindy takes Barrow and then someone offers you 2 #1s and a 2 for your pick and you know the Gisnts will take Young?

This is going to most likely be the case imo. I think someone will offer us three #1's to move up for Young. We are going to have some nice offers that will be hard to refuse. 

I would sit pat and take the generational player in Young. 

5 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Best outcome in your opinion. IMO the best outcome is losing to the Cowboys, having Burrow go number one and us drafting Chase Young. We have young talent on this offense and defense. Add a REAL difference maker like Young and do some good things in FA and you might have the makings of a decent team. 

And sprinkle in a new GM and head coach and you get a playoff team in the NFC East. 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

Interesting, and ha is for sharing a bit of process and rationale behind your thoughts. 
 

What impact can a Hall of Fame producer have on guys around him? Do you believe a hall of fame talent/producer can elevate 65 level players to 70-85 level guys?? 
 

This then gets into what’s the higher probability of drafting individual talents that will rate in the 75-85 range on their own versus drafting a generational type talent and him elevating 3-5 guys around him

 

I don't think PFFs grading scale works like that.  If you look at the graph SIP posted a few pages ago showing the Cowboys grades, the guys around Zach Martin aren't really seeing a big bump in their grades from playing around him.  They're either studs in their own right, or are kind of having down years like in the cases of Frederick and Elliot.

 

I think PFFs grades do an unusually good job of isolating individual contribution and caliber of play.

 

I actually think you need several high end players in a unit to start seeing a major cumulative effect in the quality of play of the whole group.  Otherwise I think it's too easy to just go away from a single player and attack the easy points of failure.  That's a big reason why I think the really great units and teams take a strength in numbers approach so they are consistently winning matchups all over the field over the course of games and seasons.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

Getting a Mack type doesn’t preclude a team from developing talent around him. I understand this isn’t what you’re eluding to, but it’s worth mention, that a team can still work to hit on mid round draft picks while having an elite talent. 

 

Also, guys who make pro bowls will command similar deals to the elite talents in today’s NFL. Making it difficult to keep units together at times. 

 

True, which is why I think it needs to be a real haul to justify trading out of #2.  Something where we could potentially get four high end players.  Just getting two additional picks wouldn't do it for me.  I want at least three more picks with at least one still being a high first and the higher the better in the other ones, even if they're future picks.  An RGIII haul would blow me away.  No way I could say no to that.  But again, no one will trade that for a non -qb.

 

You're right to point out how hard it is to keep an elite unit together.  You usually get like three seasons before natural attrition and matriculation undermines the group.  That's why you have to be consistent with your drafting and stick to your philosophy of adding extra top 100-150 picks when you can.  Gives you more bites at the apple and more ability to cope with guys leaving or losing steps.  If you could add an average of an extra two picks in the 40-100 range every class and draft between 9-10 players a class, that would really create a pipeline for your roster to cope with FA losses and keep your units stocked with 70+ players.

 

One final note, the teams with the best GMs have such a major advantage in draft efficiency over the bad teams.  Of those HoF track players I mentioned by name, the only one who was a top five pick was Mack.  The NFL draft is special in how routinely teams are able to find elite talent in the teens and twenties of the first round.  A top five pick like we will get is worth far more to a bad team than a good one.  Trading down can be a good way to exploit market inefficiencies and add value to your drafts.

[dyst]

47 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

This is going to most likely be the case imo. I think someone will offer us three #1's to move up for Young. We are going to have some nice offers that will be hard to refuse. 

I would sit pat and take the generational player in Young. 

If Allen is in charge he will hold out hoping to get a better deal only to come out empty handed.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

This then gets into what’s the higher probability of drafting individual talents that will rate in the 75-85 range on their own versus drafting a generational type talent and him elevating 3-5 guys around him. 

 

I think it also depends on the position and context.   The pass rusher for example is often perceived as a domino position.  It helps the guys around them as for double teaming, etc.  It helps the secondary because Qbs have to dump the ball faster or take chances when they get rid of the ball when they are in the grasp of the pass rusher, etc. 

 

I saw a stat that Ionnaidis is doubled team more than half of the time he's on the field.  Good luck with that with someone like Young on the field.

 

I wish I can recall how Cooley worded it but he explained once in a really digestible way the value of having a player that can take over especially in the clutch.  His version of that for the defense is 3rd down.  His take is having a speed rusher who is almost impossible to stop will make players around that dude even better and inspired in those key moments.  Conversely, its deflating to know that teams can convert on you almost at will on 3rd down including third and long.

 

The 49ers defense took a major climb when they added Bosa.  Like us they had some tools on the D line previously but Bosa clearly helped.  They climbed from the 23 ranked defense according to football outsiders to #2.  I am not saying that was all Bosa but he certainly helped make that mountain of a climb.  

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/10/28/nick-bosa-san-francisco-49ers-vs-carolina-panthers-interception-sacks-video-highlights-twitter-record-roster-nfl/

Because this kid is the real deal — a game-changer, a unit-changer, the kind of player that has some of the best players in the league (and one of the best to ever play the game) singing his praises.

“He’s probably one of the best picks in the ten years,” Richard Sherman said Sunday. “And he’s played like this since Day 1… He plays like a 10-year vet.”

He’s playing like the one who was promised back on that sweltering South Florida day at the beginning of the decade.

Because he’s not just good — he’s great.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/49ers-thrilled-nick-bosa-4-games-224720810--nfl.html

Bosa expects opposing teams to pay more attention to him now by double-teaming him, or chip-blocking him with a running back or a tight end or sliding the offensive line's protection in his direction.

''But that can't really last too long,'' Bosa said, ''because we have three other guys who can win one on one and get to the quarterback. If they want to chip me and slide to me and free up Arik Armstead one on one on a guard, I'll take that every day.''

Bosa certainly isn't the only 49ers defensive lineman who has played well this season. The top four linemen all are former first-round picks: DeForest Buckner, Dee Ford, Armstead and Bosa. Buckner has three sacks and two forced fumbles, and Ford and Armstead have two sacks each. Those four players have helped the 49ers produce the second-ranked defense in the NFL.

Richard Sherman credits the entire defensive line, not just Bosa, for the 49ers' defensive dominance.

 

 

 

[Skin'emAlive]

Regarding Ion and double teams:

 

If you run a 3-4, wouldnt the ends always get double teamed due to the numbers? 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Regarding Ion and double teams:

 

If you run a 3-4, wouldnt the ends always get double teamed due to the numbers? 

No. You usually double the NT and strong side end. That is why Young would be such a problem. You can just move him to the weak side of the defense. Of course teams will motion to his side most likely. Also If we stay with a 3-4 Young could be a stand up pass rusher on passing downs. unless we use a 4 man line with nickle. Which we do a lot of now actually.

[Burgundy Yoda]

I saw someone say this. Young is a Sean Taylor level prospect, you can't pass on a player with that kind of impact. We could have taken Sean #1 overall and nobody would have blinked. He was the best prospect of that draft and Young is the best prospect of this one. I will lose my **** if we draft Andrew Thomas, we have to be smart. 

[wtfskins]

Yes we have to draft him and if he ante there we draft Burrow. 

[Burgundy Yoda]

8 minutes ago, wtfskins said:

Yes we have to draft him and if he ante there we draft Burrow. 

I don't know about this anymore. I felt this way a month ago but Haskins has shown promise. I think in the scenario that Burrow falls to us we have to trade down. If we don't get a good scenario then we just take him and figure it out later. If it's anything less than a kings ransom then that's probably the scenario where we should just take Burrow and may the best QB win. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I saw someone say this. Young is a Sean Taylor level prospect, you can't pass on a player with that kind of impact. We could have taken Sean #1 overall and nobody would have blinked. He was the best prospect of that draft and Young is the best prospect of this one. I will lose my **** if we draft Andrew Thomas, we have to be smart. 

 

I said it maybe someone else did too and I 100% buy into it.  I don't want to jinx this but yeah if they end up with the 2nd pick, it should be one wild-fun ride. 

 

The other thing I think Chase has in common with Sean is he's a rare defensive player who is a tone setter type who actually will bring some people to the games.  For me like anyone here, winning is the be all and end all.  But if I am running this franchise, drafting Chase would be a no brainer because you get the best of both worlds.  Great player and also a marketing bonanza for a team that desperately needs a jolt of excitement. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

I pulled a couple of 3-4 looks in motion, the 1st clip doesn't look like a 3-4 at that stage because both OLBs pulled back into coverage.  They double Payne in one instance.  Double Ioannidis the other time.  I haven't really watched too many games with coaches tape yet, I'll do that in the off season but from what I saw it doesn't look like our edge rushers are doubled much.  Offenses seem more worried about our interior rush.   That would change IMO if we had someone like Young.

 

Cooley said he notices sometimes teams will leave their TE on Kerrigan and the dude is rarely doubled.  But I'll rewatch some games to check that out.  From what I just watched they didn't play a heck of a lot of 3-4 in the last 2 games. 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

Young, Payne, Iaon and Allen or Sweat as a front four is pretty awesome. I think RA would make a solid ROLB, Foster as the MLB. It's a pretty nice start. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Cooley said he notices sometimes teams will leave their TE on Kerrigan and the dude is rarely double

 

 

Packers would have their TE swap sides to follow Kerrigan for run blocking.  They were happy blocking him 1 on 1.  Despite being a bull rusher, he doesn't squeeze the TE backwards into the gap to close it off.  He kinda takes run plays off.

 

At this point, he's a pass rusher only.  I'd cut him, and then hope to resign him for half his cost.  He's a 3rd down guy, or 2nd and long guy.  He still has value and contributes, but it's not in an every down capacity

 

[wtfskins]

5 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I don't know about this anymore. I felt this way a month ago but Haskins has shown promise. I think in the scenario that Burrow falls to us we have to trade down. If we don't get a good scenario then we just take him and figure it out later. If it's anything less than a kings ransom then that's probably the scenario where we should just take Burrow and may the best QB win. 

I completely agree we try to trade if it’s burrow if we don’t get what we want we draft him and see what teams are willing to give later.  

[bakedtater1]

Serious question, what if the Bengals shock the world and they draft young..what now?

[bakedtater1]

I agree haskins is starting to come around..its why I want at least koc retained...maybe just pray to the gods maybe...theres a change in management and they use there ole asshole and trade down to stock pile some picks..

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

Serious question, what if the Bengals shock the world and they draft young..what now?

We let the league know there is an open bidding war for Burrow. Some team will trade up a motherlode to get him. It'd be the reverse RG3.

 

Lets not entertain that notion though. I'm more likely to have a three some with Kate Upton and Jessica Alba tonight than the Bengals are of passing on a franchise QB prospect.

[bakedtater1]

23 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

We let the league know there is an open bidding war for Burrow. Some team will trade up a motherlode to get him. It'd be the reverse RG3.

 

Lets not entertain that notion though. I'm more likely to have a three some with Kate Upton and Jessica Alba tonight than the Bengals are of passing on a franchise QB prospect.

There at my house though tonight..soooo nice try!!

[Skinsinparadise]

FS to me is a need this off season, it might be even close to CB as far as a high need.  Nicholson to me is just a guy let alone all the off the field stuff. 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/redskins/gm-report/redskins-christmas-wishes

5. Trade or release Montae Nicholson: A problem to deal with off the field and far from good enough on the field. He shows flashes but that's about it. No more TMZ headlines with the Redskins, please. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Burgundy Yoda]

14 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I said it maybe someone else did too and I 100% buy into it.  I don't want to jinx this but yeah if they end up with the 2nd pick, it should be one wild-fun ride. 

 

The other thing I think Chase has in common with Sean is he's a rare defensive player who is a tone setter type who actually will bring some people to the games.  For me like anyone here, winning is the be all and end all.  But if I am running this franchise, drafting Chase would be a no brainer because you get the best of both worlds.  Great player and also a marketing bonanza for a team that desperately needs a jolt of excitement. 

 

 

I agree with it too. When you think about it we really haven't had an DPOY type of pass rusher ever, Manley was as close as we ever got. Young looks like a guy that can ascend a defense and take over the game, we haven't had a player like that since 2007. 

 

I really hope we draft him, how does he rank in comparison to pass rushers coming out in the last 10 years to you? 

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I agree with it too. When you think about it we really haven't had an DPOY type of pass rusher ever, Manley was as close as we ever got. Young looks like a guy that can ascend a defense and take over the game, we haven't had a player like that since 2007. 

 

I really hope we draft him, how does he rank in comparison to pass rushers coming out in the last 10 years to you? 

 

With the caveat that it's impossible obviously to predict college to NFL, I'd put Chase at the top.  As for apples to apples, I like him as a college player slightly better than Mack, the Bosa brothers, maybe even Von Miller, too.  Certainly more so than Clowney.  i am not saying for sure he ends up better than all of them but I love his potential to do it. 

 

https://www.theringer.com/2019/11/22/20977212/chase-young-ohio-state-nfl-draft

This season, Young’s 32.4 percent pass-rush win rate is on pace to establish a new record (PFF has never tracked a qualifying defensive lineman above 30 percent for a full season). ...It’s still very early in the predraft process, of course, but there’s little doubt that Young has all the attributes teams look for in a franchise-altering player: He’s a rare athlete, has posted extraordinary numbers, boasts a developing repertoire of fundamental techniques, and by all accounts, has a strong work ethic and desire to improve his game. With the versatility to play multiple roles in just about any defense, Young is already as close to the complete package as a prospect as you can get―and at 20 years old, he’s just getting started. 

 

...Young is an athletic marvel with a prototypical frame for the edge rusher position. The Buckeyes defender is 6-foot-5 and, as former teammate and current 49er Nick Bosa recently put it, “270 pounds with a six-pack.” (He’s listed at 265, but you get the point.) Young boasts a thick, muscular lower half and long, powerful arms―a rare combination of mass, length, and athleticism that helps make him one of the most versatile defenders in college football. He’s a movable chess piece capable of playing all over the line, setting the edge with authority against the run on one play and then rag-dolling opposing tackles to get to the quarterback on the next. He’s even adaptable enough to line up as a stand-up end and drop back into coverage, as the Buckeyes asked him to do at times against Wisconsin back on October 26―a schematic package the team drew up to throw the Badgers offense for a loop.

 

Of course, his ability to go backward isn’t what will get Young drafted inside the top three picks of the 2020 draft—it’s his ability to get after the passer. Young’s get-off at the snap is the first thing that jumps off the tape: Whether he’s rushing from a two- or a three-point stance, the Buckeyes edge rusher uncoils upfield to explode through blocks with the speed of a drag racer. That elite first step has left his coaches at Ohio State in awe: It’s “ridiculous,” co-defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley recently put it. “His get-off, his speed, it’s unbelievable. It’s like nothing I’ve seen before.” Head coach Ryan Day apparently concurs, noting after Young’s massive four-sack outing against the Badgers that the junior pass rusher’s first step is “the best I’ve been around.” Coaches often talk up their players, sure, but that’s still pretty lofty praise considering how recently Day coached Bosa.

[Burgundy Yoda]

@Skinsinparadise Thanks for posting that! I think we picked a good year to have a bad year. I like the franchise level talent in this draft much more than last year's draft. I think the most impressive thing about Chase Young for me is how smooth he looks and effortlessly he gets his sacks. I thought Chase was a good player last year, but I didn't think he would turn into the beast we are currently seeing. I'm really hoping we take him.