Starting QB 2019???

[MartinC]

1 minute ago, CapsSkins said:

#15 for Rosen and a 3rd?

 

It sounds like the word is its #15 straight up. It's all rumors though and this is a time of year to not believe anything you hear or see for that matter.

[CapsSkins]

Just now, MartinC said:

 

It sounds like the word is its #15 straight up. It's all rumors though and this is a time of year to not believe anything you hear or see for that matter.

 

Yup makes sense. I'm skeptical they would do #15 for Rosen straight up but it wouldn't shock me. I think 15 for Rosen/a 3rd would be fair and I'd be happy with that. Think it's a better deal for Arizona than LAC's 2nd.

[Est.1974]

#15 for Rosen and their #33 pick is my trade.

 

Maybe a conditional 2020 mid round pick to see in through.

 

Would love to get Rosen and still have four picks on day two of the draft.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

I think it has to be one of my weirdest position on a player that I can recall.  However, some on this thread share my view on this because every time I make the point I get some ditto here from some.   I'd like to even love getting Rosen if its a 2nd rounder.  I'd dislike to hate it if it takes a first rounder.   

 

 To me Rosen is a boom-bust type of prospect.   Similar in a way to Lock IMO albeit they are different type of QBs.  I don't see the dude as close to being a a borderline stud with just some questionable personalities traits.   I also don't think he was some stud in college who was simply foiled in the NFL because of an inferior supporting class.   His numbers in college were good to at times very good but far from great.   And from the college games I've watched his decision making comes off almost Rex Grossman like where you wonder what is he seeing-thinking?   And he's got a slim frame, has had some concussions and injury concerns.   

 

On the other hand, he has great footwork, a quick release, and a consistent and nice looking arm motion.  To me Rosen is intriguing if you can play up his tools and find a way to fix or mitigate his weaknesses.  And if Jay thinks he can do it then I am on board.  But I am not on board for a #1 pick.  To me the opportunity cost is too big where you miss out on a top prospect like Burns or whomever and you are betting much harder that Rosen is a success.  For me Rosen is 50-50.  IMO he will either be a good QB (unlikely to be great) or a bust.  

 

And if this ended up a successful trade involving a draft pick -- IMO this would be the first time (unless am forgetting one?) that Dan ever won a trade involving a pick.  Otherwise, he's either lost the trade slightly or lost big in trades when picks were involved.   Bruce worries me in a bidding war.  He tends to get his man but does so IMO by overpaying.  Maybe that's Dan egging him on.  Because I find it strange that Bruce is such a hard contract negotiator while on the other hand IMO really loose as to giving up compensation in trades.

 

I don't agree with all of the take below on that blog post,  For example, I think Rosen's arm strength is above average albeit not special.   So I don't agree that its below average.  But my point is there is some serious risk with Rosen.  That risk is mitigated though if you are using a 2nd rounder.  But a first rounder means you are betting harder that the roll of the dice will work out.  And I'd rather not do that.

 

The points below aren't again aren't all endorsed by me.  And I did a long post weeks back showing clips that promoted Rosen play.  So I am very back and forth on the dude.  I am not very positive or negative.  But I'll be negative if its for a first rounder.   This isn't IMO some low risk no brainer trade as some of the people especially on twitter push this to be.  Heck PFF did a whole article about how based on their metrics if Josh has a good career from here on it will be an anomaly.  Another study I posted months back talked about a formula conceived by some draft geek who studied the metrics of college QBs who ended up successful in the NFL.  I didn't care about Rosen back then because this whole conversation wasn't in play at that point.  But I do recall their metrics had Rosen as a likely bust in the NFL.  

 

I know moist draft geeks like Rosen so the counter argument to him being a bust can be had in their various narratives.  Andy Benoit who thought Alex Smith would be a bad fit in Jay's offense thinks Rosen would be perfect for it.

 

So again rooting for a 2nd.  Rooting hard against a first.  😀

 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/202739-josh-rosen-has-bust-written-all-over-him/

 

 

The Bills Blog

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Posted March 12, 2018

Does this sound like a franchise QB to you? This profile from NFL.com is downright scary.

 

Durability is a concern. Carries slight build and has had injury issues dating back to high school. Carries ball low in pocket with slight upward pre-throw hitch. Too casual in pocket set-up. Decision making and post-snap reads are inconsistent. Refuses easy throws at times. Arm talent and strength are below average. May need to make greater effort to drive field and seam throws. Poor career deep ball completion rate. Excess air under ball allows challenges. Lacks gun to challenge safeties with rip throws over the top. Needs better anticipation. Poor mobility. Struggles to elude early pressure. Completed just 42.4 percent of his throws when forced to move. Too much hero ball. Extends plays and takes unnecessary chances rather than throwing it away. Scouts question his passion for football and whether he will be a willing student.

 

"He wasn't the guy everyone rallied around in college and you don't have to dig around for too long to find people who said he was hard to coach. He's definitely talented. Nobody questions that. But he's going to have to get grown men to buy into him as their leader. That is not a given." -- NFL Executive

•  

[Skin'emAlive]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

 

Nobody is giving up a 1st for Rosen. This is just posture to drive up the price because there are fewer teams biting on Rosen than Arizona thought.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

 

Nobody is giving up a 1st for Rosen. This is just posture to drive up the price because there are fewer teams biting on Rosen than Arizona thought.

 

Hope you are right.  I'd give up a 2nd for Rosen, a first rounder to me is yuck.  

[MartinC]

1 minute ago, Skin'emAlive said:

 

Nobody is giving up a 1st for Rosen. This is just posture to drive up the price because there are few teams biting on Rosen than Arizona thought.

 

Strap in because we just might be about to do just that. 

 

My position on this (which is worth exactly zero) is that I liked Rosen coming out of college and I still like him now. He's a great fit for our system. He's not a perfect prospect but he would be the second or maybe third QB picked in this years draft behind Murray and for a pure WCO (which is what we run) he's a better fit than Murray who likely goes 1st overall this year. I like him a lot better for a 2nd round pick than a 1st round pic though. But I would not HATE him for a first rounder. Far rather that than trade up for Lock or Haskins or take say Daniel Jones at #15.

 

I see the draft write up @Skinsinparadise posted - I think some of that rings true but the comment about lack of arm strength is just way off. He's not a Matt Stafford type but he has plenty of arm. He showed that with throws he made as a Pro last year - he can make every throw. He can also throw off platform, does not need to have his feet set to get plenty on the ball. He took a beating behind a bad O'Line last year and came through it well from a physical point of view (hes 6' 4" 218 so I struggle with him being called 'slight').

 

He is aggressive with the ball though - tends to read deep to short. Will force some throws as well and holding it means he can be late coming off to the shorter throws which limits YAC sometimes. One of the things we were looking for from Smith last year was giving a receiver like Doctson a chance on some 50/50 throws - Rosen will do that. That will lead to some good things and some not so good things.

 

He was given a lot of responsibility within the offense as a rookie - he called all the protections and had the ability to change plays at the line. He has a good football IQ.

 

Given his contract situation and how cheap he would be from a cap perspective I think he is a heaven sent get out of jail card. I would swallow at a first round pick but I still think its a move I would make. 

[Est.1974]

I guess to add contact, Rosen actually cost the Cards a first rounder (#15 by coincidence) a third rounder and a fifth rounder in the trade up to get him, plus they ponied up 11mil in signing bonus.

 

As MartinC says above, I agree, this is a massive get out of jail free card for our cap situation. I really don't like 15 straight up, think we could balance that out with something else back in any trade.

[DWinzit]

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

It sounds like the word is its #15 straight up. It's all rumors though and this is a time of year to not believe anything you hear or see for that matter.

Surely hope this isn't the case, it is too much for Rosen. I prefer a third on Grier, /Stidham, Finley or Minshaw.

 

So they go all in on a new QB who fits a coach who is in a prove it or go home season. 

 

Does this mean if they end up 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 they are going to give Jay another year? ugh

 

[Skin'emAlive]

You can’t address the most important position of the team under pretenses that it’s a good acquisition because he’s cheap. If he was worth a 1st or 2nd, he would have shown it. There’s never been a draft with more than 3 pro bowl caliber players, and he’s at least 5th in the running behind Baker, Darnold, Jackson, and Josh. If you are a team with multiple day 2 or 3 picks, it’s a low risk move. We are not that team. 

 

Either we see what we like in this draft at qb, and make the move... or fill some holes and go all in next year. 

[MartinC]

35 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Surely hope this isn't the case, it is too much for Rosen. I prefer a third on Grier, /Stidham, Finley or Minshaw.

 

So they go all in on a new QB who fits a coach who is in a prove it or go home season. 

 

Does this mean if they end up 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 they are going to give Jay another year? ugh

 

 

It's a fair question re Jay. Logically if they do use a first round pick on a QB and Jay is part of that process they should extend Jay for a couple of years. Give him a chance to develop the offense around that QB. 

 

Now a lot of fans would be aghast at that - but it would make sense. Switching coaches/systems on a young QB is not the ideal way to develop them.

 

On the other hand Rosen had 3 different OCs in College and two in his one season in the NFL - so he's used to it by now!

21 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

You can’t address the most important position of the team under pretenses that it’s a good acquisition because he’s cheap. If he was worth a 1st or 2nd, he would have shown it.

 

I believe he has shown the ability to develop into a franchise type QB. It's certainly not a given - but then neither are any of the QBs in this (or for that matter any) draft. For me it's a massive and very important bonus that he is relatively cheap financially - but fundamentally I like him as a QB.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

Strap in because we just might be about to do just that. 

 

 

Agree. Dan-Bruce-Vinny usually get their man in a bidding war that involves giving up draft capital -- only exceptions that come to mind is being outbid for Mark Sanchez and Jay Cutler.

 

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

Far rather that than trade up for Lock or Haskins or take say Daniel Jones at #15.

 

 

Me too and I actually like Lock better than Rosen but I don't want to give up draft capital to trade up.  I'd still dislike it but I'd hate the other scenarios worse.  I might be able to talk myself into it from 2 angles:

 

1.  I'd trust that Jay might be able to fix the things that bother me about Rosen.

2.  Any young QB gives in theory some hope as to the future.   

 

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

 

I see the draft write up @Skinsinparadise posted - I think some of that rings true but the comment about lack of arm strength is just way off. He's not a Matt Stafford type but he has plenty of arm. He showed that with throws he made as a Pro last year - he can make every throw. He can also throw off platform, does not need to have his feet set to get plenty on the ball. He took a beating behind a bad O'Line last year and came through it well from a physical point of view (hes 6' 4" 218 so I struggle with him being called 'slight').

 

The write up I posted there was from someone else.   And like you I said I disagreed with the hit on Josh's arm strength.  I think his arm is strong enough.  I do think he's slight looking for his frame.  And its not something I am alone on -- others including some who are high on Josh raised it as a concern.  He's had multiple concussions and a shoulder surgery.   If you go back to his 2018 draft reports -- injury concerns was a mention. 

 

As an amateur-lay person, my take on Rosen is obviously meaningless.  But I felt a little validated when Cooley did his film report a week or so after I did mine and a number of his points dovetailed off of what I posted here back then  And Cooley was much tougher on Rosen then me.  Cooley thinks a 2nd rounder is too rich for Rosen.  

 

I've followed Rosen on and off in his career.  But I didn't really study him closely until this year.   And I watched 6 college games and 2 pro games.  So I put in more time on him than any prospect in this draft.   And the thing that struck me the most was for a smart dude IMO his decision making on the field comes off befuddling at times.    What I liked though was he's like a ballerina with his footwork and mechanics.  And I like his ability to dodge pressure with footwork and its an underrated trait that few talk about.   Some attack him for his lack of mobility but I disagree with that.  He's not very mobile but he isn't a statue in the pocket either.

 

I was shocked how much he reminded me of Rex Grossman (Josh is obviously more talented than Rex) in one way.  That is, like Rex, Josh can get hot and find a rhythm and then all of a sudden just throw a ball up for grabs.  And those throws look horrible IMO.   Am not talking about throwing in tight windows -- I am talking about throwing into coverage when no one is clearly even close to being open.  

 

When I couple that observation with hearing from multiple draft geeks (including one who loved Rosen last year and he was his top QB in that draft) that Rosen got a rep in Arizona for not being a hard worker-- it makes me pause.  It makes me wonder if his IMO questionable decision making is a product of being unprepared and not properly reading the coverage.  In college, you could see the dude could get away with some of these errant throws.  

 

But my impression was after watching some of his college games -- that i could totally see turnovers end up plaguing him in the NFL.  Therefore, it didn't shock me at all that he had turnover issues in the NFL.  And the turnovers isn't just his INTs.  He averaged just about a fumble a game in addition to his INTs.   

 

I've read Bruce Arians' book on QBs.  And one of his points is he doesn't care how talented or smart a QB is they still must prepare hard for the week to week chess game.   His view is if they aren't a preparation hound they will ultimately fail in this league.  His point is if a QB isn't ready for what D coordinators are going to do to them -- they will ultimately get foiled by good defensive coordinators who know how do bait QBs into traps that ironically lead to turnovers. 

 

 

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

 

He was given a lot of responsibility within the offense as a rookie - he called all the protections and had the ability to change plays at the line. He has a good football IQ.

 

 

I think he has a high IQ.   I don't think a high football IQ is an isolated variable though which makes you a smart QB on the field -- I think you have to marry the IQ with preparation.  Or at least that's one of Arians' points.   And we've seen from other prospects -- smarts and football smarts on the field are two different things.   The irony brings me back some to RG3.   Shanny said the dude is smart but he made the point in interviews over the years that he didn't study enough and that hurt him.

 

I am not landing on a position that Josh doesn't work hard.  I don't know.  But the accusation that he doesn't work hard -- doesn't strike me as outlandish so it makes me pause about him. 

 

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

Given his contract situation and how cheap he would be from a cap perspective I think he is a heaven sent get out of jail card. I would swallow at a first round pick but I still think its a move I would make. 

 

In theory, I agree.  But naturally he'd have to play well for it to be a get out of jail card.  If you give up a first rounder to me it actually puts you in sort of a different type of QB jail if things don't ultimately work out.  That is, once you expend a first for a young QB (Cards ironically notwithstanding) then you typically have to ride that investment for at least 2-3 years.  If Rosen ends up a bust than they find themselves in one of the worst type of QBs jails which is being locked into an experiment with a young QB who ultimately fails.  We've been there and done that multiple times.  Ramsey, JC. RG3.  That's fine to me if the FO is sold.  I am willing to take a risk typically on a young QB.  

 

Most of my point is related to the risk of giving up a first.  If you are giving up a first, you are getting married and the opportunity cost rises if it doesn't work out.  If its a 2nd or 3rd, then you are dating and can get off the hook easier if it doesn't work out. 

 

On Rosen, I am playing devil's advocate mostly.  I did a post weeks back when I studied him that was much more positive than negative.  But I am hardcore on the point that giving up a first round pick has some risk.  My take in short overall is it wouldn't shock me if he's a good QB.  It wouldn't shock me if he's a bust.   Part of the reason why I like Lock more is while I see some bust potential in him too - his ceiling is higher albeit IMO his floor is lower.   But I don't love the idea of using the 15th pick for Lock either.  And I definitely don't want to trade up. 

 

[MartinC]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

In theory, I agree.  But naturally he'd have to play well for it to be a get out of jail card.  If you give up a first rounder to me it actually puts you in sort of a different type of QB jail if things don't ultimately work out.  That is, once you expend a first for a young QB (Cards ironically notwithstanding) then you typically have to ride that investment for at least 2-3 years.  If Rosen ends up a bust than they find themselves in one of the worst type of QBs jails which is being locked into an experiment with a young QB who ultimately fails.  We've been there and done that multiple times.  Ramsey, JC. RG3.  That's fine to me if the FO is sold.  I am willing to take a risk typically on a young QB.  

 

Most of my point is related to the risk of giving up a first.  If you are giving up a first, you are getting married and the opportunity cost rises if it doesn't work out.  If its a 2nd or 3rd, then you are dating and can get off the hook easier if it doesn't work out. 

 

 

 

I don't think we would be married to Rosen long term if his play did not justify that. With his cap charges over the balance of his rookie deal he is essentially getting paid around what Colt McCoy is getting. His floor is at least a very good backup. I get using a first round pick on a backup QB is far from ideal but having him on the roster does not stop us taking a QB high in 2020 if Rosen looks bad this season.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, MartinC said:

 

I don't think we would be married to Rosen long term if his play did not justify that. With his cap charges over the balance of his rookie deal he is essentially getting paid around what Colt McCoy is getting. His floor is at least a very good backup. I get using a first round pick on a backup QB is far from ideal but having him on the roster does not stop us taking a QB high in 2020 if Rosen looks bad this season.

 

OK. I'd hope so.  Part of the stunning development of Rosen being potentially in play is how unprecedented it would be for a team to give up on a first round QB so soon.  Usually, you let it play out some.   

 

A big part of my take about all of this also stems from I think there is a good chance that a Jonathan Allen-Derwin James type surprise prospect falls to 15.  I've talked about it plenty on the draft thread.   Also lets say they trade their 2nd for Rosen.  They can likely recoup that 2nd if they trade down from their first.  But if you trade your first -- obviously that doesn't happen.

 

Keim said the other day he wouldn't like giving up a first for Rosen and didn't think a team would have to give up that much.  Hopefully that was based on what he was hearing versus him just voicing his opinion. 

[Peregrine]

Look, even Bruce Allen isnt stupid enough to give up a first round pick for Rosen.............

 

Oh shoot, someone get the phone away from Bruce and hand him a coors!

[Skinsinparadise]

I've been saying recently I am surprised there have been no links to Finley because he seems to fit the mode of a Jay style QB.   Well finally something....

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Listened to Keim's podcast where he interviewed Scot just now.  Very entertaining so if I were you guys I'd listen to it, too.

 

He liked Rosen as the 2nd best QB in 2018 albeit he doesn't know Rosen personally.  He goes that its important to get to know the QB's personality.

 

He plugged Jay's skills as an evaluator. 

 

From this podcast and others its clear he's sold on Murray and not the other Qbs in this draft.  He's compared Haskins before to Leftwich

 

His take is that for a QB the most important traits are accuracy and ability to throw with anticipation.  He talked about the 2 QBs who were here pre Alex Smith on that front -- he was flattering to one, killed the other.  He also highlighted in today's NFL he prefers QBs with athleticism and the ability to escape pressure. 

 

 

[DWinzit]

30 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've been saying recently I am surprised there have been no links to Finley because he seems to fit the mode of a Jay style QB.   Well finally something....

 

 

Thrilled to read this. Keep all QB avenues open...except trading up!!!

[Malapropismic Depository]

Imagine being Case, and having BOTH Gruden brothers gooing, and awing over you ?

How many QB's can say that ?

[mistertim]

With Rosen I'd also really prefer not to part with our 1st for him. That being said, one way to look at it is like this...if we had the #15 pick last year, had the same QB situation we have now, and Rosen fell to 15 would you pick him? I certainly would. I know he didn't have a good rookie season and some of it is on him but IMO he was in by far the worst situation of any of the rookies when it came to coaching and supporting cast so I'm willing to give him a mulligan on it. 

[skinsfan212689]

40 minutes ago, mistertim said:

With Rosen I'd also really prefer not to part with our 1st for him. That being said, one way to look at it is like this...if we had the #15 pick last year, had the same QB situation we have now, and Rosen fell to 15 would you pick him? I certainly would. I know he didn't have a good rookie season and some of it is on him but IMO he was in by far the worst situation of any of the rookies when it came to coaching and supporting cast so I'm willing to give him a mulligan on it. 

I agree with every word and from a age stand point he’s still younger than most of the quarterbacks coming in this year. Not that it matters much but he’s 22 years old he’s a pup and I’d be ok with parting with 15 hopefully getting a 3rd or something like that back. If not I’d still be fine with 15 for Rosen. 

 

Hail

[JoggingGod]

 

 

[profusion]

The smart thing would be to trade down for more picks. Which is why I expect Rosen to be in town by next week...

[DWinzit]

If Rosen is acquired does this put an end to the McCoy era? I would imagine they don't just cut him but I have a hard time seeing Colt, Case and Rosen on the roster.

[LightningBuggs]

1 hour ago, profusion said:

The smart thing would be to trade down for more picks. Which is why I expect Rosen to be in town by next week...

 

I agree with both of those statements.  If there's a smart option, this organization does everything in its power to avoid taking it.