2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[BayouBrave86]

I can agree with that. Maybe take a flyer on an athletic QB with upside after the 3rd round. 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I completely agree with you... There are a handful of QBs that I feel can execute just about any system, or are THAT GOOD that the system fit is not the priority.  Brady, Brees, Peyton, Luck (to an extent), Rodgers... Those type of QBs are going to be successful regardless of who the coach is because they can run the system themselves.  Those are the type of players that you're literally only bringing in a coach to accent their ability because the talent level is so high.  You have one of them, you bring in a coach that works for them.  I don't see that QB in this draft.  The OVERWHELMING majority if the QBs that are out there, the system has to take the priority, and you find the right QB for that system, and the guy who can execute it.  I also prefer a coach who is familiar with a system.  Yes the better coaches figure out the best way to coach his players and builds the system around them, but I still would prefer bringing in a HC who has a system they are very comfortable with and getting a guy who fits that direction.  I just feel like the transition is easier, the teaching and coaching is easier, and the comfort level is better when a coach has been running something for 10 years, vs a coach who has to teach himself how to run an offense, THEN he has to help coach a QB to understand it how HE is trying to understand it.... 

  

does that make sense?  

 

I get what you're saying.  And it makes sense.  I get what you mean that some QBs get so good in their systems that they barely need playcallers any more.  But someone else is still designing that offense and installing it.  I disagree that there is such a thing as a QB who is so good he doesn't need a system tailored to him.  Even the heroically good and successful QBs like Brady and Brees have limitations.  They could not run any sort of RPO or read option.  They can't play outside the pocket.  They could not effectively run the kind of offense that Wentz and Rodgers and Wilson and Mahomes run, for example.  Their systems are tailored to their strengths--timing based, shotgun heavy short passing game with rigid footwork that is the grandchild of the old Bill Walsh offense married to the passing concepts and formation designs of the shotgun spread.  Climbing the ladder is the only off-schedule movement you see them routinely execute with success.  Their limitations as players and the limitations of their systems have come up in key losses.  If you collapse the middle of their pocket and can reroute slot guys off the line and limit yardage from the flats, you can stymie them.  It's hard to do, but that's how Brady lost four Superbowls and Brees has only won one.

 

It's on the coach to understand his QBs limitations and design the offense for them.  The best coaches are masters who don't need a lot of time to learn other systems/concepts and incorporate them.  I look at Nick Saban and his staff as clear examples of master coaches.  They recruit talent however they find it and then change their defense damn near every year to match the strengths of their guys.  They've been doing it to their offense too, to a lesser extent.

[OVCChairman]

2 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I get what you're saying.  And it makes sense.  I get what you mean that some QBs get so good in their systems that they barely need playcallers any more.  But someone else is still designing that offense and installing it.  I disagree that there is such a thing as a QB who is so good he doesn't need a system tailored to him.  Even the heroically good and successful QBs like Brady and Brees have limitations.  They could not run any sort of RPO or read option.  They can't play outside the pocket.  They could not effectively run the kind of offense that Wentz and Rodgers and Wilson and Mahomes run, for example.  Their systems are tailored to their strengths--timing based, shotgun heavy short passing game with rigid footwork that is the grandchild of the old Bill Walsh offense married to the passing concepts and formation designs of the shotgun spread.  Climbing the ladder is the only off-schedule movement you see them routinely execute with success.  Their limitations as players and the limitations of their systems have come up in key losses.  If you collapse the middle of their pocket and can reroute slot guys off the line and limit yardage from the flats, you can stymie them.  It's hard to do, but that's how Brady lost four Superbowls and Brees has only won one.

 

It's on the coach to understand his QBs limitations and design the offense for them.  The best coaches are masters who don't need a lot of time to learn other systems/concepts and incorporate them.  I look at Nick Saban and his staff as clear examples of master coaches.  They recruit talent however they find it and then change their defense damn near every year to match the strengths of their guys.  They've been doing it to their offense too, to a lesser extent.

 

 

Right, I guess what I meant was that if you have Brady, you find a Coach that runs a system that hes good at.  You're not going to bring in a Coach who's been running RPO in college, and have him then change his schematic offense to tailor to Brady, when you can get a Coach that's familiar with running more a spread style, drop back offense.  Those guys are good enough that their talent dictates the type of Coach.  The QB talent dictates the system, not the Coach.  What I don't see in this draft is any QB of that caliber... a slam dunk, sure fire, franchise changing QB.  That makes me feel like taking a QB for the sake of QB then limits, the coaching pool you have to pick from.  If we pick a statue back there, then bring in the next hot shot college guy who's bread has been buttered out of the RPO, we're forcing one of the two to change.  That doesn't feel like the path of least resistance to me.  I'd rather get that hot shot college coach in here first, and let him pick his QB that he scouts and see's can execute the similar looks and schematics that he plans on running.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Not that its any shocker but Finlay and Keim said in separate interviews they hear they are going QB in this draft -- Finlay thinking early in the draft, Keim not sure if early or late.

 

On another note:

 

 

[PlayAction]

It's early but I've heard the depth in this draft is going to be on the Dline.  Skins certainly don't need to use high picks on the DL and they have Settle as the developmental guy.  But maybe another low round pick to take advantage of talent on the cheap.

 

If Skins start dumping players then they'll need OLB, ILB and potentially CB depending upon the plans for the secondary. 

 

Offense - OT, G, faster WR, TE, developmental QB.   

[Skinsinparadise]

Interesting nuggets from Keim on MLB, no surprises in that mix.  He expects MLB to be an off season target.  Got my doubts that R. Foster ever plays but per Keim's point, R. Foster is a Mo MLB not a Mike so he'd replace Brown not M. Foster.  And it sounds like they aren't sold that Dion-Hamilton is a starter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Devin White.  I have watched some LSU but didn't hone in on him so much.  I get the rap is he's an athletic freak but doesn't always have the best instincts and gets fooled especially with misdirection.  But some are definitely high on him.

 

 

Here is how one of the National scouts summarized White. 

Read more at http://walterfootball.com/draft2019ILB.php#KE8RATqiXBvGdk8b.99

"This kid could end up being similar to Ray Lewis. I'd take White over any of the linebackers this year. He's unbelievable. Unless he gets hurt or completely shuts it down to protect himself, he'll be the first linebacker drafted next year. He's the complete package. Great character. He's the signal-caller of the defense with a super football IQ. He's big, study, and stout enough for Mike - middle linebacker; swift enough for Will - weakside linebacker -, great athlete and coverage instincts. Stacks up the stat boxes, all of them. He's fast, an explosive tackler, and [has] elite reactionary quickness. 

"Right now, he's among the best, and maybe the best, I've scouted. Better athlete and versatility than [Dont'a] Hightower. More explosive, violent, and bigger than C.J. Mosley; same level of instincts. Better than Jerod Mayo at Tennessee. Bigger than Jonathan Vilma while being more violent and instinctive than D.J. Williams, same kind of freak athlete explosiveness-wise. [A] thumper like Sean Weatherspoon. Basically, he's a bigger version of Roquan Smith in the 240-250-pound range. He's FUN to watch. Unbelievable stamina and motor. He could be the best linebacker ever to come out of LSU."

[OVCChairman]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Devin White.  I have watched some LSU but didn't hone in on him so much.  I get the rap is he's an athletic freak but doesn't always have the best instincts and gets fooled especially with misdirection.  But some are definitely high on him.

 

 

 

Im assuming we'd have to take him in the first.. maybe trade back and take him?  I don't see anyone looking at him as a top 15 pick but I could be wrong?  Looking at the scouting report on The Draft Network, the template looks identical to Z. Brown.  I'm not familiar enough but is he better?  Is he 1st round pick upgrade better?  I'm honestly asking.  

 

Additionally, one of the mocks on that same site has us taking David Edwards out of Wisconsin with the 21st pick.  I personally think we'll be picking earlier than 21, but I'm liking the idea of going O-line more and more.  The fanboy in me wants a playmaker, but I keep telling myself that stocking the best talent across the lines is likely the move for the most sustainable success.  

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Im assuming we'd have to take him in the first.. maybe trade back and take him?  I don't see anyone looking at him as a top 15 pick but I could be wrong?  Looking at the scouting report on The Draft Network, the template looks identical to Z. Brown.  I'm not familiar enough but is he better?  Is he 1st round pick upgrade better?  I'm honestly asking.  

 

Additionally, one of the mocks on that same site has us taking David Edwards out of Wisconsin with the 21st pick.  I personally think we'll be picking earlier than 21, but I'm liking the idea of going O-line more and more.  The fanboy in me wants a playmaker, but I keep telling myself that stocking the best talent across the lines is likely the move for the most sustainable success.  

 

I haven't dived into Devin White but from my one inch look at him is draft geeks are really mixed about him -- some think he will be a rock star stud with incredible athleticism -- strong-fast and will only get better because he's a converted RB still learning the position and others yeah give analogies that smack of Zach Brown where he's a super athlete who plays out of control and makes splash plays but does not smart enough.  In mock drafts I've seen him everywhere from top 5 to late first.

 

I haven't landed on a position on him yet. 

[skinny21]

@PlayActionThat’s where I’m at as well.   I’m really hoping they find a way to extend Ioannidas, but even so, a developmental guy can’t hurt.  BTW, have we seen Brantley at all?

Interestingly, I find myself having little desire for the team to look to FA for help.  The only position I’d really consider is corner (though I’d take a peek at the market for guards).  I would consider player for player trades though - mainly Reed and Norman - for a corner, G, or receiver.  

 

@OVCChairmanNo idea about White, but I think a stud ILB likely impacts this team more than anything else, except maybe a stud qb.  Of course, with the qb, you still need to upgrade the oline (and it’s depth), the defense, and probably the receivers.

 

On defense, I expect to see natural improvement on the line and at corner as these guys gain valuable experience (and another offseason).  The safeties and OLBs are good enough (IMO), so the glaring weakness is at ILB.  I’d consider a good FA corner (assuming we move on from Norman), but the draft is the way to go for ILB.  Doesn’t have to be in the first (see Darius Leonard), but that’s probably your best bet at a stud.  To be fair, I’m guessing we’ll be picking early enough that we’d have a chance at one of the top ILBs in the 2nd instead.  

 

Obviously, a lot of things have to work out - you don’t want to reach on a guy (though if you love a guy and think he can impact your team more than anyone else...), and you may have to maneuver around the draft - but that’s what I’d focus on.  Follow it up with oline help in the 2nd and 3rd (if possible).  

 

Speaking of oline, it’s crazy how close we are to having a great oline (we have 3-4 good starters), and how close we are to a really poor one (2 of the above 3-4 are constantly dinged up and we have almost 0 depth).  I’d be thrilled if they take 4 oline men before the 5th round is over (we have 7 picks in that range, right?).  At the minimum, they need a guard and tackle, but then our interior depth is weak once again.  

 

Wildcards - Wr, TE, QB and OLB (and safety/ILB/OLB depth, as well as maybe a dline man - per PlayAction’s post above).  

 

Caveat - I know, I know... BPA.  You can move around the draft though, and I’m presuming cases where grades are close and they opt for the more needed position.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

I think Devin White goes in the early to mid teens.  He's an extraordinary athlete at the position, and because of that he makes such a strong first impression.

 

But the more you watch, I think the more that impression cools because you see that he doesn't have special instincts like Kuechly and Roquan did.  And I disagree with that scout that thinks he is this remarkably violent and physical player.  He's got average size and play strength and he's not a big time striker at all.

 

He reminds me a lot of Jaylon Smith actually.  He's probably faster than Smith was, but they have very similar skill sets.  That is who I would compare him too.  Smith is a damn good player but he's not in Kuechly's class, for example.  White will be a Probowler if he stays healthy but he won't be the best at his position in the NFL.

[Skinsinparadise]

I've been reading Arians book about QBs -- some of his points for what they are worth are this:

 

Draft "expert" types are too preoccupied with what type of throws college QBs can make, quick feet, physical traits and arm strength.  But he says that will tell you how good a thrower the QB is but not so much what kind of passer he is.  And he's obsessed with finding a passer and for that in his mind the good passers have certain consistent traits.

 

In his mind, some of the key criteria are:

 

A.  QBs who have good deliveries and follow through -- and they are consistent on that front:   Qbs who release the ball at the top of their motion (on a clock face it looks like the release is coming at high noon) and the follow through is more or less straight down.

 

B.  Qbs who throw with anticipation versus wait to see the receiver break open.  So QBs who have good anticipation and timing. 

 

C. Smart QBs who can read a defense, look off defenders to throw the defense off course, etc.

 

D.  Playing off of the smart QB point -- QBs who can process things quickly and see the field.  He said many QBs in his QB room can figure things out including reading defenses if you give them some time to do it but in real time you don't have the luxury of time.

 

E.  QBs that are tough and can hang in the pocket and keep their eyes downfield even if there is chaos around them. 

 

F. QBs who can reset their feet when they are on the move and throw accurately on the run.  He likes mobile QBs because they are much more difficult for defenses to defend

 

He likes having quarterbacks with physical attributes as well but he thinks these other items are more important. Everything being equal he prefers quarterbacks with some size so they can withstand the punishment of the position.   He's big on testing young quarterbacks intellectually to see what they can handle mentally.  The personality intangibles he's into are -- toughness, smart and a leader that players rally around.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I think Devin White goes in the early to mid teens.  He's an extraordinary athlete at the position, and because of that he makes such a strong first impression.

 

But the more you watch, I think the more that impression cools because you see that he doesn't have special instincts like Kuechly and Roquan did.  And I disagree with that scout that thinks he is this remarkably violent and physical player.  He's got average size and play strength and he's not a big time striker at all.

 

He reminds me a lot of Jaylon Smith actually.  He's probably faster than Smith was, but they have very similar skill sets.  That is who I would compare him too.  Smith is a damn good player but he's not in Kuechly's class, for example.  White will be a Probowler if he stays healthy but he won't be the best at his position in the NFL.

 

If that's the comparison, I'd take it.  I've seen some draft geek (forgot whom) make the same comp to J. Smith.   Seems like Atlanta exposed the idea of exploiting match ups with our LBs in space among other things and after that it seems to become a template to kill this defense.  If I recall we are bottom 5 in the league in allowing YAC. 

 

So wondering if adding a guy like White would fill a major gap on this defense.  

 

I noticed Brugler likes him, and I typically respect his opinion

 

 

 

 

[NoVaSkins21]

With the recent news about Smith, I really hope this opens their eyes about looking at a QB in the 1st or 2nd round.  They can't count on Smith coming back at all right now or a career backup in McCoy as the long term answer.

[Anselmheifer]

As poor as this year's QB crop looks, Justin Herbert has to declare, right? He'd be stupid not to. I don't love Drew Lock. He has the arm, but that is about all that it looks like he has. His completion percentage has been garbage, until this year, and this year, it is adequate, but not great. Has there been a comprehensive breakdown of Lock vs. Haskins vs. Herbert? Honestly, I think I may like Haskins best. Stats were great. Great completion percentage. Strong arm, solid pocket presence and a lot of professional caliber throws in his highlight video. The one year of game action gives me pause. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-lock-1.html

 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dwayne-haskins-1.html

 

 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/justin-herbert-1.html

 

 

[Going Commando]

I think I'm going to do grades this year, using Lance Zierlein's 4.5-8 scale.

 

No way I'll get to all or even most of the prospects in time for April.  But I think I can probably do like 50 of the prospects.

 

This is how his scale works:

 

GRADE

 

9.00-10

Once-in-lifetime player

8.00-8.99

Perennial All-Pro

7.50-7.99

Future All-Pro

7.00-7.49

Pro Bowl-caliber player

6.50-6.99

Chance to become Pro Bowl-caliber player

6.00-6.49

Should become instant starter

5.50-5.99

Chance to become NFL starter

5.20-5.49

NFL backup or special teams potential

5.01-5.19

Better-than-average chance to make NFL roster

5.00

50-50 Chance to make NFL roster

4.75-4.99

Should be in an NFL training camp

4.50-4.74

Chance to be in an NFL training camp

[Going Commando]

Here's my first grade:

 

Byron Murphy, CB, Washington, RS Sophomore - 6.8

 

Strengths:

- Extremely twitchy athlete

- Click and close speed is best at the position in the class

- Very fluid hips

- More than enough long speed to carry outside receivers deep

- Good arm length

- Extremely confident and aggressive in his coverages.  Undercut routes to go after the ball and makes a bunch of plays

- Ball skills among the best in the class

- Return threat after the pick

- Plays mean.  Much more physical than you'd expect.

- Jars a lot of catches loose with the big close

- Aggressive in run support.  Will put off balance receivers on their butts.  Looks to hit rather than tackle. 

- Shines in zone coverage.  Especially cover 3. 

- Loves to read the QB in the backfield and is an instinctive defender who makes good decisions when he helps off to find the ball.

- Sniffs out screens immediately

- Played off coverages mostly, but seems to have some familiarity with press.  Probably not going to have to start from scratch here.

 

Weaknesses:

- Very slender frame.  Narrow hipped and has thin joints.  He'll probably max out around 180.

- Functional power is good for his size but NFL strength is going to give him trouble.

- Tackling is just OK.  Displays a lack of discipline in breaking down and takes very aggressive pursuit angles and will abandon outside contain when big play hunting.

- Abandons his backpedal and bails too quickly.  Frequently sets up in bail from the get go and gives up easy comebacks as a result.

[OVCChairman]

14 hours ago, SAli457180 said:

With the recent news about Smith, I really hope this opens their eyes about looking at a QB in the 1st or 2nd round.  They can't count on Smith coming back at all right now or a career backup in McCoy as the long term answer.

 

I think their eyes are open to it... just not sure there will be a round 1 or 2 talent there when we're picking, and I really don't want us over-drafting in a panic.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

Yeah, the 6 teams behind us in draft order all are within a game of us and at this point we win the tiebreaker against all of them. If we keep losing (likely) we could really move up. Jets pulling off a late victory over Buffalo hurt us though.

[volsmet]

On 12/7/2018 at 9:59 PM, Anselmheifer said:

As poor as this year's QB crop looks, Justin Herbert has to declare, right? He'd be stupid not to. I don't love Drew Lock. He has the arm, but that is about all that it looks like he has. His completion percentage has been garbage, until this year, and this year, it is adequate, but not great. Has there been a comprehensive breakdown of Lock vs. Haskins vs. Herbert? Honestly, I think I may like Haskins best. Stats were great. Great completion percentage. Strong arm, solid pocket presence and a lot of professional caliber throws in his highlight video. The one year of game action gives me pause. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-lock-1.html

 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dwayne-haskins-1.html

 

 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/justin-herbert-1.html

 

 

 

 

Lock has the arm & an unbelievable release, which is about as important as any single trait. A guy who can get the ball out quickly, from a variety of platforms, is a blessing to any OC. The speed of a release is the difference between sacks & positive plays, between fumbles & completions, between the quick wr screen getting there on time or a half second too late. Lock is an unbelievable talent. He also had a lot of passes dropped this year. It’s hard not to like Haskins, I try not to hold going to Bullis against him.

 

As for the LB, White, he’s had some issues off the field, some more publicized than others, he will need to be looked at more closely on a personal level. I don’t see Jaylon Smith, but if that’s who he is, we need him, badly. A LB I want on my team is Devin Bush, he’s a perfect athlete, & competitor, for this spread out nfl.

 

On 12/4/2018 at 11:51 AM, Inigo Montoya said:

Just no! He’s not an nfl quality qb, I live in St. Louis and watched him live suck it up against Kentucky. 

 

What isn’t nfl quality about Lock? 

[volsmet]

On 12/5/2018 at 8:32 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

Elephant in the room with the QB talk is Gruden.  Is he going to get a fourth chance at getting his QB?  That seems hard to fathom, but honestly, I'm not opposed to it.  I don't think our coaching staff has been the problem.

 

We never score to start games or to open the 2nd half, that’s a coaching problem. We went nearly a year without a 3rd Q TD & have scored how many TDs on opening drives? What more clearly illustrates coaching failure than that? Gibbs was lauded for adjustments, Gruden goes into the half & we come out with punts almost every single time. As offense is getting much easier, Gruden can’t put a score on the board after preparing all week nor after adjusting at the half. It’s really embarrassing to watch his offense in the new age NFL. He’s a problem.

 

[volsmet]

On 12/4/2018 at 11:48 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The defense has been hung out to dry by god awful offense the last two games.  This is a championship caliber D.  They're ready to win.  But no defense can overcome the utter lack of offensive production we're getting.

 

Put a QB and an OL on this team and they win 12 games.

 

We haven’t won 12 in decades. We aren’t close to being a 12 win team, imo. We aren’t significantly better than any team in the nfl, we are significantly worse than several. We are closer to being the worst team in the nfl than the best. We should have started shipping pieces a year ago. 

 

 

[Burgundy Yoda]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The NFL should fine the Falcons for the tank job they're doing. There's no way they're that bad. 

[Berggy9598]

2 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

 

Lock has the arm & an unbelievable release, which is about as important as any single trait. A guy who can get the ball out quickly, from a variety of platforms, is a blessing to any OC. The speed of a release is the difference between sacks & positive plays, between fumbles & completions, between the quick wr screen getting there on time or a half second too late. Lock is an unbelievable talent. He also had a lot of passes dropped this year. It’s hard not to like Haskins, I try not to hold going to Bullis against him.

 

As for the LB, White, he’s had some issues off the field, some more publicized than others, he will need to be looked at more closely on a personal level. I don’t see Jaylon Smith, but if that’s who he is, we need him, badly. A LB I want on my team is Devin Bush, he’s a perfect athlete, & competitor, for this spread out nfl.

 

 

What isn’t nfl quality about Lock? 

Footwork is an absolute eye sore, too easily affected by pressure, velocity control is erratic at best, doesn't go through his progressions that fast and he struggled against tougher competition. He plays with a few NFL caliber players on offense too.