stevemcqueen1

2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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18 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

David Long is the second situation.  I didn't know about him before despite all of the time I spent on Gary and Bush and Hurst the year before, including watching several of their games live.  TBH the broadcast view really sucks for watching corners and deep safeties.  But he made some spectacular plays in coverage so that he finally caught my eye and I was like "holy crap, who the he'll is this kid? " 

 

Many cut ups later and I'm sold that he's the best press man corner in the class.

 

David Montgomery is the first situation.  Went in thinking this kid is slow, don't want.  Watched like two cut ups and was immediately aware I was completely wrong about him.  That kid is so damn good.  A true workhorse, and one of the few potential offensive stars of the class.  I think he could be one of the true steals of the class, and that getting him would give us an unbelievably talented backfield and the foundation for a very powerful offense.

 

This defense is still vulnerable. Foster and SDH have a history of fragility and we lack a CB1 and FS. We could vastly underperform our front 7 talent based on those facts. I wouldn't mind David Long, or another CB. 

 

Regarding David Montgomery, I don't think RB is a great value for us, giving our team build, and I watched him and DO think he's slow. But, you've been pretty good with your RB analysis. Weren't you on Nick Chubb last year?

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2 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

This defense is still vulnerable. Foster and SDH have a history of fragility and we lack a CB1 and FS. We could vastly underperform our front 7 talent based on those facts. I wouldn't mind David Long, or another CB. 

 

Regarding David Montgomery, I don't think RB is a great value for us, giving our team build, and I watched him and DO think he's slow. But, you've been pretty good with your RB analysis. Weren't you on Nick Chubb last year?

 

Must take off the doom and gloom goggles and see that defense is far from

vulnerable and was an average to a tick above average defense last year. The unit is supremely young with an opportunity gap in front of them to improve. If R foster

can provide 12-14 games of similar play with niners, then it’s of value.

 

(Admittedly, this is on my new premise that players shouldn’t be labeled injury prone or let go by franchises due to games missed if there overall play was impactful enough to move the needle in a positive direction in seasons of play.** I’ll take 12 games of great play over 16 of average every time) 

 

Norman isn’t a speed guy, so speed WRs will give him trouble, but still provides tremendous #1 corner play against bigger WRs. Let Dunbar and Fabian run with those burners. Or... run more zones and use him the box in exotic type blitzes and run fits, maximizing his willingness and knack to make impactful plays. The front is beginning to mirror talent Panthers had in front him. He’s still a plus on the roster. 

 

No to CB in early rounds, unless team is done with Fabian, Stroman and supplemental pick. Also, Cro will be starting this year, not that he’s in long term plans, but need is immediate with corners. Let young guys mature another year. 

 

FS is a toss up and a glaring hole at the moment. I thought Nicholson was ready to takeover the league, but who knows. We’ll see what materializes there. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, KDawg said:

People are pissed that Snyder likes the guy because of this hatred for what Dan has done to the team. But I think some people need to start looking at things without Snyder hate tinted glasses on.

 

Brewer nailed it: If Jay and Kyle Smith were praising the guy, I'd be more inclined to like the pick. And yes, losing the Snyder-hate-tinted glasses is extremely difficult--mostly because I have a violent reaction every time I see his stupid face.

 

Haskins may very well work out--we'll see. Immediate reactions to drafts is always an overreaction.

55 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

 

This isn't remotely true. Kinda seems like you're falling into the trap of thinking he's Jason Campbell like some others. His mental processing is a strength.

 

Is it? if it is great, I'm happy. But I've read the opposite.

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Would both 3rds (and a 2020 3rd) get us in range to draft Metcalf/Campbell?

 

If so, I'd seriously think about pulling the trigger.

 

 

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Just now, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Would both 3rds (and a 2020 3rd) get us in range to draft Metcalf/Campbell?

 

If so, I'd seriously think about pulling the trigger.

 

 

 

I would too--but for Campbell/Samuel. Metcalf reeks of workout warrior who can't actually play in pads.

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1 minute ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Would both 3rds (and a 2020 3rd) get us in range to draft Metcalf/Campbell?

 

If so, I'd seriously think about pulling the trigger.

 

 

I've thought about something like that too.  Seems like every 1st round QB needs a fellow rookie WR that he can grow with...

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4 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

 

Is it? if it is great, I'm happy. But I've read the opposite.

Yeah, reading defenses/going through his progressions is one his strengths.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Yeah, reading defenses/going through his progressions is one his strengths.

 

 

 

Well good, I hope I'm wrong.

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Posted (edited)

We still have a bunch of picks left.  We should have an opportunity to pick some good talent up. Maybe two of these guys are still there in the 3rd.

Hakeem Butler    Nate Davis .      Chauncey Garner Johnson

Deebo Samuel .   Michael Dieter .   Nasir Adderley

Andy Isabella       Cody Ford .          Amani Hooker

Miles Boykin .      Connor Mcgovern .   Deonte Thompson

Terry McLaurin .   Max Scharping .      Taylor Rapp

Paris Campbell .                                       Juan Thornhill

DK Metcalf

AJ Brown

JJ Arcega Whiteside

Jalen Hurd

Edited by COWBOY-KILLA-
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9 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Would both 3rds (and a 2020 3rd) get us in range to draft Metcalf/Campbell?

 

If so, I'd seriously think about pulling the trigger.

 

 

 

I would seriously consider such a move as well. Somtimes you just need to be on the front foot and strike whilst you can. 

 

Another bonafide talent, especially at WR, would be an outstanding haul. Sure, we need a LG, or some OL resource, but I have a feeling that's going to be addressed on day three at this stage.

 

not sure I want a series of trade backs to accumulate depth etc unless the cost of getting back into the race at WR is prohibitive...taking into account WR will be there in the 3rd round, it's gauging the drop in quality.

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3 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

We still have a bunch of picks left.  We should have an opportunity to pick some good talent up. Maybe two of these guys are still there in the 3rd.

Hakeem Butler    Nate Davis .      Chauncey Garner Johnson

Deebo Samuel .   Michael Dieter .   Nasir Adderley

Andy Isabella       Cody Ford .          Amani Hooker

Miles Boykin .      Connor Mcgovern .   Deonte Thompson

Terry McLaurin .   Max Scharping .      Taylor Rapp

Paris Campbell .                                       Juan Thornhill

DK Metcalf

AJ Brown

JJ Arcega Whiteside

Jalen Hurd

 

Sadly the high end talent is going to be purged by the 40+ picks being made before we get back to the podium. By the middle of the 2nd most of us will be screaming for us to trade up :806:

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16 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Would both 3rds (and a 2020 3rd) get us in range to draft Metcalf/Campbell?

 

If so, I'd seriously think about pulling the trigger

 

Our two 3rds are #76 and #96: a value of 326 That could get you no higher than Houston's pick at #55. And even then that would be a minor steal in terms of value for us.

 

If you were to add a 2020 3rd, the median would be about another 180 points. That gets you anywhere in the 2nd. But then you are talking about trading 3 picks to move up to the 2nd round, when there is still alot of potential on the board. It wouldnt be the best play for us.

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BPA. I wouldn't be against LB, CB or S. If we are choosing between OL and WR, because we DO seem to choose for need, I would lean WR. I think WR pool is going to markedly drop off after the 2nd and after the 3rd, I think most of the starting talent will be gone. There should still be some OL in the 4th through 7th that can start, even if it isn't year one. We may also be able to get some quality at OL in FA, after 6/1.

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21 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

Would both 3rds (and a 2020 3rd) get us in range to draft Metcalf/Campbell?

 

If so, I'd seriously think about pulling the trigger.

 

 

 

there are like nine good receivers and almost as many good corners left.  Unless there is an almost unprecedented run on those positions where one of them is going every other pick, then I think we can sit tight in the third and one of them will be a big value pick at 76.

 

and if that kind of crazy run does hapen, then that likely pushes down a kid at a different spot who is really good.

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As others have pointed out, there are a ton of really good receivers and tight ends left on the board  and we can likely wait until #76 to take one of these guys.

 

What I would think about is packaging the comp pick with one of the 5ths and maybe a Day 3 pick next year to move up to take Risner if he is still there in the middle of the 2nd. This guy is an immediate day 1 starter at LG and his positional versatility would allow him to step in at RT and do a competent job at LT when Moses / Williams inevitably go down. If the identity of the team is going to be heavy run ball control / strong D, need to make sure that the OL is as solid as possible

I would also avoid taking a safety in Day 2. As others have pointed out, Tre Boston, a guy you can bring in to be an above average starter, is sitting out there in FA and we would be able to sign him to a reasonable deal. Because we'd be signing him after the draft, he would not count toward the comp pick formula next year

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Obviously there will be surprises - guys picked long before I expect them to be - but as of now, I’ve got about 45 guys I expect to be gone by 76, and 37 others that could go in that range.  Point being, this class has some legitimate depth (my personal feeling and echoed by most draft ‘experts’), so I just don’t really like the idea of trading up.  There’s a good chance we have someone available at 76 that we don’t expect to be there.  

 

Even more against trading up considering we need a LG, receiver and probably a FS, could use a potential starter at TE, and depth at oline, ILB and someone to compete at slot corner.  Let the draft come to us.  

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I'd be okay with packaging our thirds to move up if a stud LG or WR is available in the 2nd round. Its time to go for quality over quantity, we have okay depth but still need more high end talent.

 

I don't like Metcalf though, but would be okay with Hakeem Butler.

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Im 100% against drafting a TE in the first 3 rounds. Get a value pick in the 5th with Trevon Wesco, and use our 2nd day picks on BPA. There will be atleast 3-4 guys that fall within our range. Just sit back and wait.

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't like Metcalf though, but would be okay with Hakeem Butler.

 

Butler doesnt play like his size indicates, nor will he be anywhere within our range. If we are looking for a big guy that can go over the middle and take it to the house ( like Jay has indicated) then you target Arcega Whiteside, McLaurin, or Sills in the 3rd.

 

Im not a fan of Boykin and think he is too similar to Josh Doctson.

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I think the one guy I’d be thrilled to get at 76 that actually has a chance of being there is Kahale Warring.  

 

Murphy, Risner, AJ Brown, Jenkins, McCoy, Taylor, Winovich (no need now), Thornhill and Oruwariye are probably my favorite available players.  

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15 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Start there, in what games were his turnovers an issue for you? He had an atrocious int, on a forced screen, v SC, in a downpour, but also had 3 dropped TD passes. 

The point is more than a little moot now, but just looking at 2018, he beat one team with a winning record in which he did not throw at least 1 pick. He had dropped INTs multiple times last season as well, and fumbled the ball 6 times (although I think he only lost 2). In some games where he had no turnovers, he was also wildly ineffective. I was at the Carolina game and some of that game had heavy rain but plenty of it was in the sunshine and he got outplayed by a career backup with no starts. He had 4 games last season with a completion percentage in the mid 50s or below, two in the 40s. The guy almost invariably disappears in big games and makes boneheaded decisions like he's paid for it (case in point, some of those turnovers that were dropped and his atrocious completion percentage against good defenses). That's what I mean when I say he's turnover prone. An NFL team will pick him off twice as often as he was in the college game.

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What do the remaining TEs look like? I'd love to grab a Wittenesque TE to pair with our QB for the next 10+ years.

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Here's an interesting mock ... Matt Miller draft board, no trades

3: JJ Arcega-Whitside, WR Stanford

3: Connor McGovern, LG Penn State

5: Kaden Smith, TE Stanford

5: Jimmy Moreland, CB/S James Madison

6: DeMarkus Lodge, WR Ole Miss

7: Maxx Crosby, EDGE Eastern Michigan

7: Keegan Render, C Iowa

 

Couple things. The run on WRs is basically done at 3.12 ... Whiteside, Hall, Isabella, Boykin are there

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