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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread


Going Commando

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What's interesting about Arizona is Steve Keim will basically be admitting he was drunk at the wheel in 2018 if he trades away a 1st rd QB, who they traded up to take, 1 year after drafting him and firing Wilks 1 year after hiring him as HC.  That takes some balls.  

 

I didn't watch much of Rosen so I don't know if he's damaged goods or not.  The knocks on him coming out were concussions, and his fragile frame (collarbone injury) and how his surfer dude attitude might rub people the wrong way.  He didn't appear to have much help.  Based on the stars aligning for a  Kingbury/Murray team up maybe teams won't hold the situation against Rosen.  

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27 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Never cared for Rosen coming out of college, and last year confirmed that suspicion. Hes just a guy. We shouldnt be trading anything for him. 

 

There is barely any difference between him and Daniel Jones.  Same strengths and weaknesses, except I think Jones is tougher and a better runner.  And for someone with the reputation of having such great feet, his accuracy falls off a cliff when he has to move and reset.

 

If we're giving up picks for a QB, I want someone with high upside.  Someone who can create off script and turn negatives into positives.  That's exactly what Arizona is dumping him for in upgrading to Kyler Murray.

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4 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

There is barely any difference between him and Daniel Jones.  Same strengths and weaknesses, except I think Jones is tougher and a better runner.  And for someone with the reputation of having such great feet, his accuracy falls off a cliff when he has to move and reset.

 

If we're giving up picks for a QB, I want someone with high upside.  Someone who can create off script and turn negatives into positives.  That's exactly what Arizona is dumping him for in upgrading to Kyler Murray.

What???? Rosen was way better in college than Jones 

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12 hours ago, HoggLife said:

I'd love of we could trade our 2nd and 3rd for Rosen. Draft Devin White in the 1st would make our D so much better and a WR, OLB,LG or TE with our other 3rd rounder. I doubt we would get that lucky but that would be exciting. 

 

I like Rosen, don't love him.  I'd try to get him cheaper but who knows what the price ends up. I like him easily over Jones.  Not sure about over Lock, though.

 

12 hours ago, dyst said:

I don’t know much about Rosen and his abilities but even a 2nd for a guy who didn’t show much that his current team wants to get rid of (supposedly) seems high no? 

 

I think its not that relevant how he played with a bad team in a rookie year IMO.   A concern, though I agree.  Tough for a rookie QB to succeed with a porous O line.  I watched the Cards in person in the debut game against the Redskins and their offense looked atrocious and that was pre Rosen. 

 

12 hours ago, Burgold said:

I don't know enough about Rosen to judge him, but just on the facts my feeling is that if the guy was a very high first rounder and the Jets are willing to bail him after one year then they think he's an absolute bust. Now, if you think you can QB whisper him it's okay, but the trade should be for a reclamation project not for a premier prospect.

 

You mean the Cards. the narrative though isn't the Cards looking to bail on Rosen.  The narrative is loving Murray who is a better player.

 

I am not living and dying with Rosen one way or another.  But if they can get him without giving up a first rounder than am all in.

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to Hoffman recap what he saw and what he heard talking to scouts at the combine.  Among them: 

 

A. Murray most agree is hands down the best qb.

B. Most think Haskins is 2nd. With some thinking Lock is 2nd and some Jones. But most go with Haskins.

C. Grier didn't look good, and some think he is too full of himself.

D. Lock overtook Jones with some at the combine. Lock looked sharper with his short throws which was a concern previously with some. And he thinks Lock likely kills it in interviews because he is charasmatic, funny and easy to talk to.

E. Haskins' deep ball was the most impressive.

F. With Daniel Jones it was clear he really had to step in and put his body into the ball to push the ball down the field. He doesn't have Haskins or Lock's arm strength. And that was very noticeable watching them all throw back to back.

 

Did he mention anything about Stidham or Browning?  I thought those 2 had pretty good showings.

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6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

There is barely any difference between him and Daniel Jones.  Same strengths and weaknesses, except I think Jones is tougher and a better runner.  And for someone with the reputation of having such great feet, his accuracy falls off a cliff when he has to move and reset.

 

If we're giving up picks for a QB, I want someone with high upside.  Someone who can create off script and turn negatives into positives.  That's exactly what Arizona is dumping him for in upgrading to Kyler Murray.

I couldn't agree less.  Jones doesn't even belong in the first round. He isn't the passer that Rosen is and his stats didn't nearly approximate those of Rosen. I don't understand your take on Jones. Not a person has been able to name another college QB that never passed for 3000 yards or 7 ypa and has gone on to have a successful NFL career. I don't think that player exists. It doesn't matter how tough Jones is. He's a terrible NFL QB prospect. Can you name a good NFL QB that never threw for 7ypa in college?

I agree about wanting a guy with upside. I'd be happier with someone that didn't already have a year that didn't look promising under their belt. On the other hand, the contract is great, and I liked him as a prospect last year. 

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Just now, HigSkin said:

 

Did he mention anything about Stidham or Browning?  I thought those 2 had pretty good showings.

 

Not in the part I listened to but didn't hear the full segment.  My main take away is the Redskins FO really really like Jones and by extension over the Qbs they think they can get in their range or close to it which I presume is Lock and Jones.  Hoffman echoed the refrain from multiple draft geeks which is that Rosen would be the 2nd best QB in this draft -- he didn't flat out say that part of his point is what he thinks or what the Redskins thinks.  But he gave the vibe that its what the Redskins thinks.  He was clear as a bell that the Redskins really really like Rosen.  That was the point he was most crystal clear on.   And if they can work out a deal that doesn't involve their 2019 #1 pick they'd be all over it. 

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18 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I couldn't agree less.  Jones doesn't even belong in the first round. He isn't the passer that Rosen is and his stats didn't nearly approximate those of Rosen. I don't understand your take on Jones. Not a person has been able to name another college QB that never passed for 3000 yards or 7 ypa and has gone on to have a successful NFL career. I don't think that player exists. It doesn't matter how tough Jones is. He's a terrible NFL QB prospect. Can you name a good NFL QB that never threw for 7ypa in college?

I agree about wanting a guy with upside. I'd be happier with someone that didn't already have a year that didn't look promising under their belt. On the other hand, the contract is great, and I liked him as a prospect last year. 

 

SteveMcQueen1 has some of the best posts here and he's converted me on some players including Deebo and H. Butler.  And maybe he ends up right on Jones will see.  But its all about our current opinions and as to that I can't stand the idea of Daniel Jones at #15.  So i can't help slamming Jones whenever it comes up.  😀 I just watched 4 games of Rosen today --so I think I am starting to get a feel for him.  I like albeit don't love Rosen.  Per one of the tweets below, he actually is underrated as for his footwork as to eluding the rush in the pocket.  He's not special in that regard but for a guy with a reputation for being a pure pocket guy he had more athleticism than I expected. 

 

I don't like Jones.  I don't think he has Rosen's arm strength or is as accurate as him. 

 

I rarely agree with McShay but IMO he's spot on here. 

 

 

 

Rosen got way more hype than Jones IMO for plenty of reasons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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At this point I’d be shocked if Rosen wasn’t our QB come April / May. The sooner we make the trade the better TBH to get him in house and learning. If Murray is gonna be #1 no reason to wait on the trade. What the trade ends up being is anyone’s guess but I would presume it’s our 2 and maybe a future pick OR a 1st in 2020. 

 

I’m going to spend FA going hard after a pass rusher (Fowler?) and Landon Collins. Then in the draft I try to trade 15 back into the later 1st to get an extra 3 & 4 (or even better yet a 2). 

 

Assuming we trade 15 for a later 1 and a 3 + 4 ... I then go WR, LG, TE (any order) with 1-3-3 and use the other 3 and 4 and 5/5/6/7 and go all defense. Edge, ILB, S, CB, DL. 

 

Go into 2019 with Rosen and a rookie WR and TE and LG to go with the rest of our offensive weapons and use the mid and late rounders to load up the defense along with collins and Fowler.

 

Rosen for a 2 really opens things up in 2019 in ways we couldn’t have achieve otherwise IMO

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4 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I couldn't agree less.  Jones doesn't even belong in the first round. He isn't the passer that Rosen is and his stats didn't nearly approximate those of Rosen. I don't understand your take on Jones. Not a person has been able to name another college QB that never passed for 3000 yards or 7 ypa and has gone on to have a successful NFL career. I don't think that player exists. It doesn't matter how tough Jones is. He's a terrible NFL QB prospect. Can you name a good NFL QB that never threw for 7ypa in college?

 

Josh Rosen 2017: 283 completions on 452 attempts, 62.6 % completion rate, 3756 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 146.97 rating, 50 rushing attempts for -97 yards and 2 TDs

 

Daniel Jones 2018: 237 completions on 392 attempts, 60.5% completion rate, 2674 yards, 22 TDs, 9 INTs, 131.69 rating, 109 rushing attempts for 319 yards and 3 TDs

 

Mutual Traits:

- Cerebral QBs who are strong at pre-snap reading and shifting protections and identifying hot reads

- Progression throwers who read the whole field

- Touch passers with very good accuracy in the intermediate game

- Well schooled pocket footwork with consistent balance on the throw

- Tough pocket passers who keep their eyes downfield in the face of the rush

- Hurt by tons of drops.

- Got beat up by weak protection.  Both broke collar bones.

- Below average arm talent and arm strength.  Have to labor and need pocket room to drive the ball outside the numbers.

- Accuracy in the short game is sketchy

- Deep ball accuracy is up and down and requires a lot of air and perfect timing to get there.

- Tendency to play hero ball and hold onto it forever and take huge sacks

 

Different traits:

- Rosen has zero feel for the rush whereas Jones has a solid feel for pressure

- Rosen has a noticeably faster release than Jones

- Jones has legit open field running ability and he can throw off platform whereas Rosen is a statue who can't throw on the run at all

 

Rosen's stats are marginally better than Jones's, and they reflect the fact that he's only a marginally better talent.  Jones's lower passing yardage and Y/A numbers are a product of the differences in their offenses.  Jones ran an RPO based offense for Duke that had him making short throws and running the ball a ton.  Rosen ran a traditional shotgun spread with a vertical passing game where he aggressively pushed the ball downfield from the pocket.

 

Both of them have a ceiling of solid starter--assuming Rosen isn't stunted significantly from a disastrous rookie season.  One of them is the next Brad Johnson, the other is the next Ryan Tannehill.  You can win with that if the rest of your team is awesome, but I want more from our next QB.  Especially if we're talking about giving up picks to get him.

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You could be right about Rosen. I think we are just going to have to agree to disagree on Jones. I'm never going to see him as someone that could successfully start in this league. Not a person has yet given me an example of one successful NFL QB with YPA as low as that of Jones has had throughout his collegiate career. That's not a small detail. He's never thrown for volume or accuracy, and he doesn't push the ball down the field. 


McQueen, Ferrell, or Murphy?

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I doubt cards are in any rush to trade Rosen so they’ll probably milk this for all they can to maximize their return. Ideally I’d be ok giving up a 2nd, but as time goes teams will start to up their offers, especially once FA begins solidifying team needs.

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When I was watching Rosen his arm strength to me looked good.  Not great but good.  I posted a clip on the QB thread where he threw a rope for 60 yards.  His arm strength to me didn't look elite but really good -- and certainly better than Jones.  But it hit me that's tough to prove, its an eye test drill.  If you read the draft reports from draft geeks about Rosen most say he has good arm strength.  But anyway i went to my go to place for this just now which are the sports science guys who actually measure that stuff.  They have Rosen's arm strength and release up there with the elite Qbs in the NFL.  If anyone wants to develop a man crush on Rosen this segment here would help do that. Entertaining, too. 

 

Personally I don't have a man crush on Rosen.  But I like him.  If they can get him without giving up their first -- its a good get.  Judging by local reporters who are covering this - competition for him might come from the Pats, Giants, Raiders. 

 

 

 

I'd add another site which puts his arm strength in the 84 percentile in the league.  So above average albeit not elite 

 

 

rosenstat.png

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1 minute ago, Anselmheifer said:

McQueen, Ferrell, or Murphy? 

 

Murphy.  I did some grading and I gave Murphy a 6.8, which was tied with Bosa for I think either 5th or 6th in the class.  I gave Ferrell a 6.4.

 

Murphy is one of the elite prospects of the class IMO.  I put him just a hair below Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, and Josh Allen.

 

I don't understand why he, DeAndre Baker, and Greedy Williams have all steadily dropped in the mocks and big board rankings over the course of the process.  Greedy's preseason rankings might be have been a bit ambitious because he demonstrated some softness this year and it did take a little bit of the shine off of him seeing Kristian Fulton outplay him.  But he's still a man coverage stud who can line up across from anyone on the outside and strap them up.  To me, those three are very strong CB prospects and no brainer first round locks.  Murphy is a potential difference maker and Baker and Williams are potential high end starters.  Each of them would offer strong value at 15, and I like each of them better than the CBs from the previous two classes, excepting Denzel Ward.  I like Julian Love as a first rounder too, but not as much as the other three.

 

I rank Ferrell about even with Baker.  Probably give the nod to Ferrell based on position value.  It's really hard to get a stud everydown edge player outside the first round, whereas I can find corners later on (plus I like our young corner talent).

 

I definitely take Ferrell over Greedy.  Greedy is super talented, but I don't like his leadership potential whereas Clelin is the kind of guy who can help establish a winning, ass kicking culture in the locker room.  Greedy is soft.

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Now that I'm thinking about Ferrell as a possible Kerrigan replacement, I've warmed to the idea of him not being the speed rusher that I crave. This defense would look a world better with a signifiant CB upgrade. 


I think the CB's will climb again and that Greedy will go top 12. Baker too, if he burns it up tomorrow. Murphy should be sitting there for us. 

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@stevemcqueen1 good breakdown re, Ferrell and the 3 corners.  Looking forward to seeing the numbers put up tmrw.  I too think we have an interesting/intriguing set of corners with some talent, but I think it’s a sneaky need for us.  Improve the coverage and the dline could take that step from good to elite in terms of pass rush numbers.  

 

I like Stroman alright in the slot, but I’d like him even better as depth to Murphy.  

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37 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Now that I'm thinking about Ferrell as a possible Kerrigan replacement, I've warmed to the idea of him not being the speed rusher that I crave. This defense would look a world better with a signifiant CB upgrade. 


I think the CB's will climb again and that Greedy will go top 12. Baker too, if he burns it up tomorrow. Murphy should be sitting there for us. 

 

I read one rumor that some scout was saying all eyes are on D. Baker -- that some like his film the best among corners but are worried about his athleticism.  And some think that he will surprise tomorrow in terms of his athleticism and if so he will be a major riser. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

Now that I'm thinking about Ferrell as a possible Kerrigan replacement, I've warmed to the idea of him not being the speed rusher that I crave. This defense would look a world better with a signifiant CB upgrade. 


I think the CB's will climb again and that Greedy will go top 12. Baker too, if he burns it up tomorrow. Murphy should be sitting there for us. 

 

To me Clelin is a speed rusher primarily, but I do think he's got a significant power game as a secondary part of his rush repertoire.  He has a similar rush style to Everson Griffen.  Very reliant on edge speed and converting speed to power, and not a lot of variety in his approach.  But able to produce at a high rate based on that limited repertoire.

 

He is much more productive in college than Griffen was though.  And he's got better size and length.  He's a better prospect than Griffen was, which should be somewhat obvious since he's a first rounder and Griffen went in the 4th.  Just using Griffen to demonstrate what Clelin's ceiling could be as a pro.

 

I think Clelin has better instincts than Griffen too, and I can see him offering better run defense and tackle production.  Clelin's instincts are so good, he has a similar knack for finishing the play as Kerrigan.  He is such a contrast to Bosa.  Both play on talented lines, but Clelin is the best play finisher for his line whereas Bosa doesn't do a good job finding the football.  Bosa is so skilled and well trained and he's sculpted his body into being NFL ready from the time he was a teenager.  But he's got such a corporate approach to the game.  Clelin is all heart and hustle and football IQ and natural ability.  Bosa is obviously a better pass rusher, his approach is very advanced and diverse and he has ideal hip and ankle flexion paired with elite hands.  But I think Ferrell could end up being the more productive NFL player and he's already a better run defender.  Clelin has huge and violent hands too, and his arms are actually a little longer than Bosa's.

 

From my limited vantage point, Bosa comes off as spacey and not particularly sharp, whereas Clelin comes off as one of the smartest and most self-assured players in the class.  I see Bosa as being a neutral presence in the locker room whereas Clelin is a tone setter.

 

I think Clelin is a natural fit for our scheme because of his background at Clemson.  There isn't a lot of room for free-lancing on the line in our D and we typically don't line up wide 9 rushers, they have to maintain these tighter and very disciplined rush lanes and our stack linebackers just haven't been very good.  That is similar to the way Clemson operated.  I think Clelin will be a better play finisher than Preston Smith has been.  He and Jonathan Allen would be such an awesome rush tandem.

 

RE: The corners, I agree with you about the potential difference an elite CB like Murphy could make for our defense.  I still have Stephon Gilmore's SB performance in my head, and I think it's hard to overstate just how impactful dominant corner play can be.  I do like our young CB talent, I was a big fan of Adonis Alexander last year.  But we definitely don't have a kid who can reach the kind of level that Gilmore played at.  That is special.

 

You could be right about the CBs climbing back up boards, it's just odd to me that they dropped.  And it's odd to me that Byron Murphy has flown under the radar.  The only thing that I can think of is maybe that there is an East Coast bias against Pac 12 kids among draftniks because of the time difference.  I would be thrilled if he was there at 15 and we picked him.  That would likely be my BPA pick as Oliver is the only guy who is better than him for me who might be there at 15 too.

 

I suspect that Daniel Jones is going to be our pick at 15 though because of how dire our QB situation is, plus the fact that Gruden and Allen almost certainly need to get a QB this offseason in order to keep their jobs.

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Now that it's clear we're not going to have a shot at Murray or Haskins, and that even Lock will go top ten, I'm reaching the point where my favorite draft scenario is to just go BPA and ignore QB until the later rounds.  I want to either come away with a high end CB or edge rusher at 15, or move down a little into the natural range of the WRs, OLs, and interior DLs like Lawrence, Wilkins, Lindstrom, etc.

 

I've been running mock draft simulations on fanspeak, and my favorite guys like Murphy, Ferrell, Hockenson, and Oliver have all been consistently going before our pick.  If that happens, I'm going to be pretty disappointed, and I'd be open to trading down from 15.  I would love to add an extra second round pick, or a 2020 first.  Kansas City, Indy, Philly, Houston, and New England all have two seconds, making them preferred candidates for a trade down.  If we could make three second round choices, then I've been able to get in mock draft simulations situations where we get Hakeem Butler, Jonathan Abram, and Chris Lindstrom/Garrett Bradbury.  Situations where BPA met roster need with a pretty spectacular value.

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1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Now that it's clear we're not going to have a shot at Murray or Haskins, and that even Lock will go top ten, I'm reaching the point where my favorite draft scenario is to just go BPA and ignore QB until the later rounds.  I want to either come away with a high end CB or edge rusher at 15, or move down a little into the natural range of the WRs, OLs, and interior DLs like Lawrence, Wilkins, Lindstrom, etc.

 

I've been running mock draft simulations on fanspeak, and my favorite guys like Murphy, Ferrell, Hockenson, and Oliver have all been consistently going before our pick.  If that happens, I'm going to be pretty disappointed, and I'd be open to trading down from 15.  I would love to add an extra second round pick, or a 2020 first.  Kansas City, Indy, Philly, Houston, and New England all have two seconds, making them preferred candidates for a trade down.  If we could make three second round choices, then I've been able to get in mock draft simulations situations where we get Hakeem Butler, Jonathan Abram, and Chris Lindstrom/Garrett Bradbury.  Situations where BPA met roster need with a pretty spectacular value.

I’m right there with you man.  Guys like J Williams, White, etc. improve our team for sure, but value and mesh of BPA and need is really enticing in the latter first and 2nd round.  Now, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the guys you mention are gone by our (hopefully first) 2nd rounder, but the point still stands.  Taking a G late 1st, and having four more picks through the 3rd round... that’s a lot of at bats and (to further the metaphor) there are a lot of hittable balls in there.  

 

Speaking of Abram, what are your thoughts as to SS in that range (2nd-3rd)?  I really like Adderley (likely gone by then), Thornhill and Savage, but Rapp’s the only real SS I see there.  I like him as well, but I see some possible... deficiencies in his game.  

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7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

You could be right about the CBs climbing back up boards, it's just odd to me that they dropped.  And it's odd to me that Byron Murphy has flown under the radar.  The only thing that I can think of is maybe that there is an East Coast bias against Pac 12 kids among draftniks because of the time difference.  I would be thrilled if he was there at 15 and we picked him.  That would likely be my BPA pick as Oliver is the only guy who is better than him for me who might be there at 15 too.

 

 

The rap on Bryon Murphy from what I've noticed is good player but doesn't have size or speed.  The speed drills for corners typically have the most value so it should be interesting for him and D. Baker -- both of whom speed has been questioned.

 

Corners though typically go higher than expected not lower. So not sure what to make of the Walter Football article below but they've been right about a bunch of things recently so you never know.

 

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/college-football/cfb/player-news/headlines#news-8863221

 

NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah ranks Washington CB Bryon Murphy as his 33rd overall prospect.

Jeremiah doesn't believe Murphy has the ideal size/speed combo, but his instincts make him one of the top corners in the class. In fact, Murphy checked in ahead of LSU CB Greedy Williams on Jeremiah's rankings. Where Jeremiah believes Murphy will be attractive for teams who play zone coverage, so he can use his instincts to read route combinations and the quarterback. If he doesn't test like an elite athlete as we expect, then Murphy looks to be destined for a late first round pick.

 

Several Teams Have Graded Just One First-Round Cornerback

Updated March 3, 2019 
By Charlie Campbell. Follow Charlie on Twitter @draftcampbell.

 

 Outside of the defensive line, there are several positions in the 2019 NFL Draft that are not as talented as typical years, and one of those positions is cornerback. Some teams only have one cornerback with a first-round grade, and that can vary as to which cornerback. However, across a handful of teams, the top consensus cornerback was DeAndre Baker from Georgia, and others like LSU's Greedy Williams and Washington's Byron Murphy were getting a lot of second-round grades.   

"We only had one corner get a first-round grade. That was Baker from Georgia," said a NFC general manager. "We have Greedy [Williams], Byron [Murphy], and Rock [Ya-Sin] graded in round two." 

An AFC general manager said he had the players graded the same. He felt that Williams was graded in the second for them, and he said he was one of the most overrated players in the draft. Another top scout from an AFC team said they had Williams in the second frame as well because he lacks strength, gets bumped and out-physicaled, can't play inside, lacks instincts and awareness, doesn't have feel or make plays in off man coverage, and lacks the speed a team would want for a 180-pounder.  

An AFC director of college scouting said something similar: "Baker is the only corner we have graded in the first, but I think Greedy could slip into the first round."  

Another AFC director of college scouting texted, "Yes there is only one first-round corner for us on an evaluation perspective, but I think three will go in the first round: Baker, Williams, Murphy." 

There are lots of teams that need help at cornerback, so even though teams may only have one first-round-graded cornerback, there could easily be more than one gets selected in the opening frame.


Read more: http://walterfootball.com/nflhotpress/article/Several-Teams-Have-Graded-Just-One-First-Round-Cornerback#ixzz5hCeJmwRN

 

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