Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[Morneblade]

43 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Your thinking falls in line with traditional thinking and not wrong. The mobile QB hasn’t broken through with multiple Super Bowls to date, so not entirely wrong to this point.

 

The injury risk is true and tough to argue. Tried to think of every angle, but couldnt lol. I do feel players are becoming better with handling situations and protecting themselves. Also, rule changes continue to help the potentially mobile QB. 

 

Will be curious how the Ravens situation pans out with Jackson and. They’re are always credited with being a smart FO and it seems they agree with the direction the game is going. Other examples exist, but it seems the Ravens have really decided to make a dramatic change to most likely support a run heavy offense with a mobile QB and a dominant defense. 

 

The mobile QB in my view will allow for run first schemes to comeback. You can’t line up and the run the ball any longer and win against better teams consistently. With a mobile QB you can. 

 

Well, the Ravens are not the FO they used to be. They have been missing more often than not recently, and Ozzy Newsome is retiring after this year, and he is the heart of that FO that has been bleeding personnel for years. I'm not even sure why you're pointing at the Ravens FO as being progressive at this point. San Fran and Kap years before they took Jackson. We had RGIII way before they took Jackson. Indy had Luck years before they took Jackson. You might even say they are behind the curve, and took a poor mans version of all of those guys. This comparison is a bit of a head scratcher.

 

Adding a running QB does not actually open up the run. What opens up the run is having a QB that can beat you in the passing game, and taking that 7th, and 8th guy out of the box. And run first schemes? There are teams that are definitely run first. Jax is, LA is, Dallas is, Chicago is, ect. If you have a stud RB, you're probably going to be a run first team. We might become a Run first team if Guice is what we think he is. Same with the Giants, if Barkley is what they think he is. Same with the Browns with Chubb. In fact the only team that isn't that has a stud RB that I can think of off hand is Pittsburg, and they have Rothlesberger and Brown, so it's somewhat understandable. You don't need a running QB to do so. I'll be honest, I really kinda confused. I'm trying to figure out where you're coming from, it's like your trying to be some football guru or something. "Come, Grasshoppa, your thinking falls in line with transition thinking, and is not wrong. But it is wrong, and so are you. Come, we must meditate on your Chi, and you will see."

 

That's kind how you're sounding to me. And I'm just like...............

 

So, I'm still not buying it. Coaches are not going to risk the most expensive player on the team to any unnecessary hits. That phase went by real quick with Kap and RGIII, and I think it's a downward trend now. But you know what IS making a comeback? Three down, 25+ carries a game running backs are back in vogue. Before Zeke, when was the last time a RB was taken in the top 5, or even 10? Now, you seem to be getting at least one every year. And it's paying dividends. So, I actually agree with you that the run game is coming back in vogue. but, it's not because of running QB's, it's because of stud RB's are being desired once again.

 

[wit33]

@Morneblade

 

Don’t think I’m a guru, but do enjoy exploring and identifying potential changes in how things are done. Definitely not always right lol. Your thoughts do align with traditional thinking and history has proven you right. Nothing wrong with it, I just believe the game is in midst of change. 

 

I mentioned Jackson and the Raven, because Jackson by all reports was a terrible passer in college (arm talent for sure), but drafted in the first round. This in my view struck me as an organization wanting to make a philosophical change to their approach from their previous style of QB and former Super Bowl champ Flacco. Couple this with them showing interest in Griffin last year and eventually signing him this year. 

 

Curious as to how another good organization with a plan will do with a mobile QB. Most other guys were top picks or landed the starting job unexpectedly 

 

Dallas has a mobile QB that helps the run game—Win for me. The Rams were a high volume and very effective passing team—push. The bears sucked, so whatever. Yes, Jacksonville was a run dominant team aided by the best defense in the league—Win for you.  

 

[Darth Tater]

@wit33

 

I must not understand what you mean by mobile QB.  Roger Staubach (known as the Dodger) has multiple rings, he was one of the most mobile QBs I've ever seen. His ability to use his mobility to make off-script plays was one of the problems Tom Landry had with him.  Bob Griese, who got 2 (plus another appearance), was considered pretty mobile.  While he never won one, Fran (the Scram) Tarkenton certainly was in his share. Though not known for mobility, Bradshaw was not a statue. Joe Thiesman got a ring plus an appearance.  Montana was pretty mobile.  I'd argue that Manning and Brady are more akin to the top QBs of the 60s in the mobility factor and this may be evidence of cyclical nature of how the position is played (of course, you do have Wilson and Rodgers)

[TD_washingtonredskins]

7 hours ago, Morneblade said:

But you know what IS making a comeback? Three down, 25+ carries a game running backs are back in vogue. Before Zeke, when was the last time a RB was taken in the top 5, or even 10? Now, you seem to be getting at least one every year. And it's paying dividends. So, I actually agree with you that the run game is coming back in vogue. but, it's not because of running QB's, it's because of stud RB's are being desired once again.

 

 

This is my primary observation too. I think innovative teams will tend to take that "Moneyball" approach over the long-term. As positions become undervalued, they will leverage those positions. When the A's did it with OBP, most of the world misunderstood the overall approach. It wasn't that OBP was the cure-all, it was that taking an undervalued metric and maximizing it was the solution. 

 

The NFL devalued running backs to the point where teams were almost mocked if they drafted a guy in first round. At the same time, converted WRs with limited college QB experience were being drafted in the top-15 as QBs. Now it's adjusting again with a strong crop of RBs being featured and those teams are succeeding. 

 

In a few years, who knows where the value will be found...but someone will find it and exploit it to build a better team. 

[DJHJR86]

20 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Its not out of the realm of possibility that Smith's best football is ahead of him. Guys like Brees and Brady are still dominating in their late 30s. Warner did too. Gannon won an MVP at age, what, 37? 40 is the new 30 for QBs.

 

Brees and Brady have been doing it consistently throughout their 30s.  Smith's first year with 4,000+ passing yards & 25 passing TD's was in his 12th season.  

[TD_washingtonredskins]

17 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Brees and Brady have been doing it consistently throughout their 30s.  Smith's first year with 4,000+ passing yards & 25 passing TD's was in his 12th season.  

 

The better comp to what we'd like to see is Gannon. He bounced around and was average-at-best. Then he flourished for 3-4 years (with a Gruden brother coaching him, by the way)...

 

Edit: I just looked on Pro Football Reference, and Rich Gannon's 1999-2002 (four years beginning with his age 34 season and coming off arguably his "best" season beforehand) is actually a great example of what we'd love to see out of Alex Smith:

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GannRi00.htm

 

 

[Reaper Skins]

Brees and Brady also have the luxury of being in the same system for like a decade.

[Darth Tater]

3 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

This is my primary observation too. I think innovative teams will tend to take that "Moneyball" approach over the long-term. As positions become undervalued, they will leverage those positions. When the A's did it with OBP, most of the world misunderstood the overall approach. It wasn't that OBP was the cure-all, it was that taking an undervalued metric and maximizing it was the solution. 

 

The NFL devalued running backs to the point where teams were almost mocked if they drafted a guy in first round. At the same time, converted WRs with limited college QB experience were being drafted in the top-15 as QBs. Now it's adjusting again with a strong crop of RBs being featured and those teams are succeeding. 

 

In a few years, who knows where the value will be found...but someone will find it and exploit it to build a better team. 

In the NFL, innovation can usually be linked to rule changes:

 

In the mid 30s, passing was allowed anywhere behind the LOS, this allowed the teams to start using the T-formation as their primary formation as it allows for faster play.  The T-form evolved into the pro-set which lead to the creation of what we now call WR.

In the mid 40s, the NFL allowed unlimited substitutions.  This lead to two platoon football as we know it today.  Helped offenses come up with new, unique systems and was the basis of how modern defenses are played (ever here of a corner or safety).

The 1978 rule change is what drove the NFL into pass happiness. The WCO would never have been the success it was (as it is played) had the 5-yard rule not been created while offensive holding was legalized.  I don't think the run-heavy version of the Coryell system run by Joe Gibbs would have been the success it was.

 

Most other innovation occurs at the college, high school or even lower.  Spread was an innovation in the 20s at a middle school. Zone blocking was introduced by Lombardi who learned it at Fordham back in the 30s.  Much of the innovation of Brown and Lombardi came from their background as education professionals. There were also a few happy accidents such as the draw.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

@Darth Tater good post...necessity is the mother of all invention, right? I do think rule changes drive change...but the teams who recognize value and change before the entire league is forced to are the ones that ascend. 

[The Hangman- C_Hanburger]

16 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Is it just me, or does Alex seem to look a lot better in training camp than KC has the past couple of years? I don’t really remember KC starting hot as much as hearing about how defenses are always ahead at the start of the year. 

Well, Alex can't START any SLOWER that the Former QB did Game 1. Seems we throw away these early games and it costs us DEARLY at the back end...IF Alex comes to play Game 1 and doesn't embarrass us..that's a start

[wit33]

2 hours ago, Darth Tater said:

@wit33

 

I must not understand what you mean by mobile QB.  Roger Staubach (known as the Dodger) has multiple rings, he was one of the most mobile QBs I've ever seen. His ability to use his mobility to make off-script plays was one of the problems Tom Landry had with him.  Bob Griese, who got 2 (plus another appearance), was considered pretty mobile.  While he never won one, Fran (the Scram) Tarkenton certainly was in his share. Though not known for mobility, Bradshaw was not a statue. Joe Thiesman got a ring plus an appearance.  Montana was pretty mobile.  I'd argue that Manning and Brady are more akin to the top QBs of the 60s in the mobility factor and this may be evidence of cyclical nature of how the position is played (of course, you do have Wilson and Rodgers)

 

I understand there’s been mobile QBs long ago and there’s more in the game today. Those older guys go a bit beyond my time on earth, but don’t believe they had schemes designed around their ability to run. 

 

Its my thought that more teams will be okay with coordinators and coaches scheming up offenses that feature/pose the threat of a QBs legs consistently from game to game. 

 

I’m not attempting to say Jackson is the first QB to have a unique ability to run the football at the QB position. I do feel the Ravens have a plan and will not try to pigeon hole him like every other supremely athletic QB has been (the 4.6 and below type speed QB). 

 

Griffin, Vick, Young, Stewart, Flutie... all were riddled with insecurities brought on by the feeling of having to conform to be an NFL QB. All have different stories and levels of success, but experienced struggles with schemes and a true identity at the QB position. 

 

My take from a numbers perspective, I think there will be 6-10 Lamar Jackson types at the QB position in 5-10 years. Guys with 4.4 forty yard dash type times. 

 

Uhh... and Alex Smith has looked great in camp by all accounts. 

[Morneblade]

25 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

I

 

I’m not attempting to say Jackson is the first QB to have a unique ability to run the football at the QB position. I do feel the Ravens have a plan and will not try to pigeon hole him like every other supremely athletic QB has been (the 4.6 and below type speed QB). 

 

Griffin, Vick, Young, Stewart, Flutie... all were riddled with insecurities brought on by the feeling of having to conform to be an NFL QB. All have different stories and levels of success, but experienced struggles with schemes and a true identity at the QB position. 

 

My take from a numbers perspective, I think there will be 6-10 Lamar Jackson types at the QB position in 5-10 years. Guys with 4.4 forty yard dash type times.

 

This is some of what I was talking about earlier. How can you even say this? Have you talked to them? Like REALLY talked to them, as in a leather couch, "Tell me about your Mother" talk? I think at this point you're a little too lost in your own head. You're waxing poetic, but you're not really providing any substance.

 

TD_washingtonredskins pointed out that this is a rules driven league, and there really isn't anything that has changed to make it easier and safer for QB's to run more. Outside of the slide and "giving yourself up" one you get outside the pocket, you're fair game. So far, you have not given any tangible evidence to support this move to more mobile QB's, but also scheming for it. I also think you're either forgetting, or ignoring that there was a very quick move to that, and it faded very, very quickly. Do you have any evidence, other than a IMO inflated idea of the Ravens' F.O. and what you think they might be doing, or is that is basically spitballin'?

 

In the past, there have been several QB run schemes that were big in college, but never made it to the pros. Darth Tader eluded to them, but I'll add another; the Triple Option. Very successful in college, but never caught on in the pros. Because it puts the QB too much at risk. And this is the aspect I really don't think you're considering enough.

[NoCalMike]

As far as the Gannon comparison goes. I would love if Alex played at that level during his 'Skins tenure, but all things the same, Alex Smith showed he could be a very good QB much earlier in his career than Gannon did.   A lot of people forget Alex had already flipped the switch during his last couple seasons with the 49ers. The playoff win over the Saints was insane and they had the NYG on the ropes until that fumble on the punt return late in the game.  It's possible if 2-3 plays bounce the other way, the 49ers end up locking up Smith long term right then and there. 

[wit33]

@Morneblade

 

Definitely an element of spitballing taking place on my part, as there’s a level of projecting going on. 

 

Griffin was the only QB to have an offense designed around his abilities (took a young coach like Kyle to be innovative and mesh together Daddy/Baylor schemes) and the plan was still to make him a traditional west coast QB in a few years. Griffin being insecure all on his own, but with extra pressure by NFL to conform to a pocket QB no longer wanted to run RPO, Pistol type stuff.

 

***All this stuff is still used with great success today. 

 

The other guys never really got an offense and team built around their talents. They were pigeonholed into schemes coaches knew and were comfortable teaching. 

 

What are your thoughts on Jackson and the Ravens choosing to draft him in the 1st round with not having good grades in regards to passing the football, aside from arm talent? What kind of offense will they run with him? What philosophy will they have?

 

Alex Smith runs for more yards now than when he was in his early 20s. Mike Nolan regrets to this day not being more innovative and utilizing his legs and concepts Meyer used. 

 

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

As far as the Gannon comparison goes. I would love if Alex played at that level during his 'Skins tenure, but all things the same, Alex Smith showed he could be a very good QB much earlier in his career than Gannon did.   A lot of people forget Alex had already flipped the switch during his last couple seasons with the 49ers. The playoff win over the Saints was insane and they had the NYG on the ropes until that fumble on the punt return late in the game.  It's possible if 2-3 plays bounce the other way, the 49ers end up locking up Smith long term right then and there. 

 

As I continue to age and pile on years of watching football, I really see the importance of QB and play caller being a great match. It appears it’s more of a two way street these days, as it’s now more expected of a coach to create and find ways to make a QB successful. I’m years past, it was always the QBs fault it seemed. 

 

Obviously as a Skins fan I hope the Smith and Gruden are an amazing match. 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

29 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

As far as the Gannon comparison goes. I would love if Alex played at that level during his 'Skins tenure, but all things the same, Alex Smith showed he could be a very good QB much earlier in his career than Gannon did.   A lot of people forget Alex had already flipped the switch during his last couple seasons with the 49ers. The playoff win over the Saints was insane and they had the NYG on the ropes until that fumble on the punt return late in the game.  It's possible if 2-3 plays bounce the other way, the 49ers end up locking up Smith long term right then and there. 

 

That's a great point...I was a little surprised to discover in the link I shared that Gannon never played a full season before his first year with the Raiders. So, it's not a perfect comparison I made, but probably the one we should root for. 

 

On one hand, it's great that Smith is more accomplished going into his age-34 season than Gannon was...more reason to believe he can succeed. On the other hand, because he's played more, it's also possible that he's already hit his peak. 

 

I'm excited! 

[NoCalMike]

18 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

 

I'm excited! 

  ^---------------^

Me too.  Excitement is in the air.  Hopefully it isn't short lived.  I'll just re-iterate that not everything will hinge on the play of Alex Smith, I do think the roster itself is probably the best it has been in awhile.  A healthy defense has the chance to turn some heads.  Guice was probably the steal of the draft. A running game could change the DNA of this offense, or at least add new DNA to it that opposing defenses haven't had to deal with since the first two seasons of Morris's career. 

 

Have to temper expectations of course, but the 'Skins always seem to do something during seasons where the media has them written off during the summer.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Good post, @NoCalMike 

 

You're right, we could see leaps in several areas and it won't all be related to QB. I think the running game and defensive upgrades could make for a fun 3-4 year window!

[Fat Stupid Loser]

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

  ^---------------^

Me too.  Excitement is in the air.  Hopefully it isn't short lived.  I'll just re-iterate that not everything will hinge on the play of Alex Smith, I do think the roster itself is probably the best it has been in awhile.  A healthy defense has the chance to turn some heads.  Guice was probably the steal of the draft. A running game could change the DNA of this offense, or at least add new DNA to it that opposing defenses haven't had to deal with since the first two seasons of Morris's career. 

 

Have to temper expectations of course, but the 'Skins always seem to do something during seasons where the media has them written off during the summer.

I cancelled Sunday Ticket. Too old and jaded to get excited again. Fire BA and it might stir the old juices again, who knows.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 minutes ago, Fat Stupid Loser said:

I cancelled Sunday Ticket. Too old and jaded to get excited again. Fire BA and it might stir the old juices again, who knows.

 

What if they win 10 games? Or a playoff game? Or both? 

[Fat Stupid Loser]

20 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

What if they win 10 games? Or a playoff game? Or both? 

Don't know man. As long as BA is here, don't know. Would have to be more than one fluke season. Could have done that last year without all the injuries. Doing it this year won't mean much.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 minutes ago, Fat Stupid Loser said:

Don't know man. As long as BA is here, don't know. Would have to be more than one fluke season. Could have done that last year without all the injuries. Doing it this year won't mean much.

 

I wanted Allen to be removed too...but in the end, I just want on-field success. If we somehow could be a good team with Allen here, I really wouldn't care who has an office in Ashburn. I don't follow the front office - I follow the team. 

[NoCalMike]

I am splitting Direct TV with my friend.  He pays me half and I give him my login so he can use it on his PC. 

[Morneblade]

3 hours ago, wit33 said:

@Morneblade

 

Definitely an element of spitballing taking place on my part, as there’s a level of projecting going on. 

 

Griffin was the only QB to have an offense designed around his abilities (took a young coach like Kyle to be innovative and mesh together Daddy/Baylor schemes) and the plan was still to make him a traditional west coast QB in a few years. Griffin being insecure all on his own, but with extra pressure by NFL to conform to a pocket QB no longer wanted to run RPO, Pistol type stuff.

 

***All this stuff is still used with great success today. 

 

The other guys never really got an offense and team built around their talents. They were pigeonholed into schemes coaches knew and were comfortable teaching. 

 

What are your thoughts on Jackson and the Ravens choosing to draft him in the 1st round with not having good grades in regards to passing the football, aside from arm talent? What kind of offense will they run with him? What philosophy will they have?

 

Alex Smith runs for more yards now than when he was in his early 20s. Mike Nolan regrets to this day not being more innovative and utilizing his legs and concepts Meyer used. 

 

 

 

 

 

The Pistol is not a mainline offense, it's a look that teams use occasionally, especially the read option that is run out of it. It's like one of the several versions of the Wildcat. It's a change of pace, give the D a different look and make them think kind of thing. And the reason, as I keep saying, is that coaches are not going to put their QB's in that position often. Like when you line your QB out as a WR, hope no one covers him, and he's wide open. If he's covered, he gets cold-****ed. So you run that as a change of pace, hoping for he D to screw up because it's not a formation they are used to.

 

Let me give you another perspective to consider. Owners, not coaches are the ones shelling out big bucks for the QB position. Now, if your coach (your employee) is putting your biggest investment in situations where he's going to hurt at a much high % than normal......how fast do you fire him?

 

 

To your 2nd point, their talents, as you want to use them, are not as critical. And you compound it by putting them into situations where their longevity is at a much greater risk. There is a minor upside, and a huge downside. Also, what if, as you might expect, there is a real issue getting guys that are used to running anything but a very scaled down offense into the NFL based in being really athletic, but they can't run a NFL offense. Know your route trees and being able to go through progression at a quick and accurate rate is not something most QB's can do. Hugely successful guys at the college level, even working in similar passing systems, have a hard time adjusting. Guys that have never run it, basically have no chance.

 

I don't have any deep thoughts on the Ravens. They took Flacco originally because he was a big athletic guy with a cannon. Jackson is not big, but he's got an arm and is mobile. I personally don't know how long he even sticks around. One thing I do know, is that coaches seem to really get wound up over a big arm, especially offensive coaches. And they will throw caution to the wind, and overlook a lot of huge issues in other areas because of a big arm. My though is that they will run a similar Offense to whatever their OC likes, and throw in some naked boots, and maybe a pistol formation. Basically, the same stuff every other team does that has a guy like that. IF........he ever sees the field in meaningful games.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think Sheehan of all people echoes my thoughts about Alex Smith which is some Redskins fans seem to think Alex is like a Brees-Brady like surgeon who will pick you apart from the pocket and just kill it -- he doesn't think so, KC reporters don't describe Alex that way, neither do most film geeks, etc  -- I don't see Alex either as the ultimate pocket passer.   Good but not great in that department. 

 

 

What I like about Alex is what Moses says below.  I want to see those funky formations -- RPO, RO.   And hopefully Alex's athleticism lasts into his late 30s -- that part to me is a wild card but for the next two seasons looking forward to seeing some Redskin formations to remind us of 2012.

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Quote of the day: RT Morgan Moses on QB Alex Smith: "You can just tell by the three days, four days we’ve been on the field, how much the playbook has grown. He’s just not a thrower, he can run, you have to respect his run, we got a little bit of option stuff coming in. It helps us all out as an offense and as a defense because the [Philadelphia] Eagles run similar plays with Carson Wentz and so they get a guy on our team that they see that every day."

[Darth Tater]

7 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

I understand there’s been mobile QBs long ago and there’s more in the game today. Those older guys go a bit beyond my time on earth, but don’t believe they had schemes designed around their ability to run. 

 

Its my thought that more teams will be okay with coordinators and coaches scheming up offenses that feature/pose the threat of a QBs legs consistently from game to game. 

 

I’m not attempting to say Jackson is the first QB to have a unique ability to run the football at the QB position. I do feel the Ravens have a plan and will not try to pigeon hole him like every other supremely athletic QB has been (the 4.6 and below type speed QB). 

 

Griffin, Vick, Young, Stewart, Flutie... all were riddled with insecurities brought on by the feeling of having to conform to be an NFL QB. All have different stories and levels of success, but experienced struggles with schemes and a true identity at the QB position. 

 

My take from a numbers perspective, I think there will be 6-10 Lamar Jackson types at the QB position in 5-10 years. Guys with 4.4 forty yard dash type times. 

 

Uhh... and Alex Smith has looked great in camp by all accounts. 

A running QB is not what a mobile QB is. Mobile guys can run but not all running QBs are mobile.  A mobile QB is one that can extend plays like Rodgers. The fact is, that since 70s, almost all elite QBs have had good to great mobility. Griffen, Vick, Young and Stewart were more worried about what the moniker that was hung on them often is code for.