Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, wit33 said:

 

The “this is what people were saying on twitter” response to substantiate an argument in this forum has no place, in my opinion. I don’t engage in twitter because of the nonsense on there. It’s basically the game day thread 24/7. 

 

The theme of this thread(s) was mixed between Kirk supporters feeling Smith was comparable to a slight downgrade and non Kirk supporters feeling/hoping Alex was comparable to a slight upgrade. Literally saw no post on here stating Alex is elite or primed for a big time year.

 

Half the crap about him being an upgrade were tweets that were posted on this very site as launching points for the discussion.

 

You are correct in that nobody would call him elite but they would tout all these positives about him that would lead one to believe he is elite.  

 

We are not making this stuff up, in fact you are one of the guys who would talk about some of these things you thought would “be the difference” with Alex at the helm.  Stuff like leadership, getting guys in and out of the huddle. Defense recognition, accuracy, etc.

 

I just always found that wierd because like I’ve said a million times, if Alex is Kirk+ all that stuff, he’s damn near elite.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

20 minutes ago, HardcoreZorn said:

 

Last week was disgusting. I don't even know where to start, but if that's how this season is going to go it's time to hit the reset and bring in a fresh GM and head coach. But a lot of time left, we all remember the code red game that launched Kirk Cousins career. Far too early to make a definitive call on how this all shakes out.

 

I think it's too early too evaluate any QB until he is 37.

[HardcoreZorn]

2 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

I think it's too early too evaluate any QB until he is 37.

Yeah, that's what i was saying.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

14 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

It was obviously a joke...but seriously, what good is it to keep stating that you don't want the guy. He's almost certainly the QB of your team for another 40 games or so. 

 

Because it makes me want to die.

[HardcoreZorn]

Just now, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

Because it makes me want to die.

That might be indicative of needing to seek help.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 hours ago, oraphus said:

This organization loves to get fleeced by Andy Reed in trades.. they seem to be too dumb to learn from previous mistakes.

Macnab for two 2nds - was benched by mid season

Smith for a 3rd and a good corner - has a pretty good shot at being benched soon on top of sticking the team with a fat contract.

 

The silver lining is that after another subpar season in a historically bad NFCE, Snyder has no choice but to clean house and dump all the trash (Gruden, GM, DC, etc)

and find a rookie QB to groom.

 

 

Can we slow down?

 

Through 4 games, Smith has a QB rating of over 92. He's no where close to "being benched soon" by Jay Gruden. To further refute your comparison, McNabb had more interceptions than TDs and had a QB rating in the 70s. He was clearly outplayed by Grossman who still registered a QB rating more than 10 points lower than what Smith is putting up. 

 

Smith played an awful game on Monday night...but we need a lot more time before we can compare this trade to the McNabb trade. 

 

Edit: I am bad at math...updated the comparison numbers between Rex and Alex. 

[HardcoreZorn]

1 minute ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Can we slow down?

 

Through 4 games, Smith has a QB rating of over 92. He's no where close to "being benched soon" by Jay Gruden. To further refute your comparison, McNabb had more interceptions than TDs and had a QB rating in the 70s. He was clearly outplayed by Grossman who still registered a QB rating more than 15 points lower than what Smith is putting up. 

 

Smith played an awful game on Monday night...but we need a lot more time before we can compare this trade to the McNabb trade. 

Fans are more desperate to vindicate their beliefs so that change occurs than they are interested in the success of the team or taking a more measured approach and rooting interest in the Quarterback of the team.

[DJHJR86]

3 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Can we slow down?

 

Through 4 games, Smith has a QB rating of over 92. He's no where close to "being benched soon" by Jay Gruden. To further refute your comparison, McNabb had more interceptions than TDs and had a QB rating in the 70s. He was clearly outplayed by Grossman who still registered a QB rating more than 15 points lower than what Smith is putting up. 

 

Smith played an awful game on Monday night...but we need a lot more time before we can compare this trade to the McNabb trade. 

 

McNabb was 2-2 as a starter through the first 4 games, had an 84.7 QBR, 3 TDS, to 2 INTs, and an AY/A of 7.67  Smith has 4 TDS, 2 INTs, and an AY/A of 7.64.  Smith has a much higher completion percentage, and a better rating.  The wheels didn't fall completely off for McNabb until the Monday night massacre.  

[ExoDus84]

2 minutes ago, HardcoreZorn said:

Fans are more desperate to vindicate their beliefs so that change occurs than they are interested in the success of the team or taking a more measured approach and rooting interest in the Quarterback of the team.

 

I think it's more the obvious: We have a new QB, and through 4 games, he's had two awful performances, and two passable ones. And the worst one was the most recent game, so people are naturally going to raise an eyebrow or two.

[JoeJacobyHOForRIOT]

What bothered me most about Smith on Monday night wasn't the fact we got blown out, It was the Wide open misses and just the overall look of panic he had every time he dropped back to pass. It honestly looked like 49er rookie year Alex Smith. That did not look like a veteran QB or the cool customer who played in KC last season.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

McNabb was 2-2 as a starter through the first 4 games, had an 84.7 QBR, 3 TDS, to 2 INTs, and an AY/A of 7.67  Smith has 4 TDS, 2 INTs, and an AY/A of 7.64.  Smith has a much higher completion percentage, and a better rating.  The wheels didn't fall completely off for McNabb until the Monday night massacre.  

 

What about that makes you think his benching is right around the corner as you alluded to previously? You believe that because McNabb regressed, so will Alex simply because the same coach traded him to us nearly a decade apart? 

4 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

I think it's more the obvious: We have a new QB, and through 4 games, he's had two awful performances, and two passable ones. And the worst one was the most recent game, so people are naturally going to raise an eyebrow or two.

 

Well, I disagree. 

 

I noticed and I have an eyebrow raised. I agree that is a reasonable response. Saying his benching is right around the corner is not the same as being concerned. 

[DJHJR86]

5 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

What about that makes you think his benching is right around the corner as you alluded to previously? You believe that because McNabb regressed, so will Alex simply because the same coach traded him to us nearly a decade apart? 

 

If you can point to the post where I said he was due to be benched, I'd love to read it.

 

Also:

McNabb first 4 recorded games of QBR (done by ESPN) in 2010: 33.5, 61.3, 70, 60.2 for an average of 56.25

Smith first 4 games in 2018: 83.7, 27.3, 83.6, 26 for an average of 55.15

[TD_washingtonredskins]

6 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

If you can point to the post where I said he was due to be benched, I'd love to read it.

 

Also:

McNabb first 4 recorded games of QBR (done by ESPN) in 2010: 33.5, 61.3, 70, 60.2 for an average of 56.25

Smith first 4 games in 2018: 83.7, 27.3, 83.6, 26 for an average of 55.15

 

Whoops - you're right. That was @oraphus who made that assertion. My bad. 

 

So, it looks like he's had a lower floor and higher ceiling...which is bizarre because I'd have guessed he was the exact opposite type of guy. Listen, I'm not claiming that he's playing great but there's no reason to think that he will necessarily regress like McNabb did either (not that you're claiming that). 

[HardcoreZorn]

18 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

I think it's more the obvious: We have a new QB, and through 4 games, he's had two awful performances, and two passable ones. And the worst one was the most recent game, so people are naturally going to raise an eyebrow or two.

Fair, and trust me I certainly have mine raised too. But I think the week to week back and forth is a bit excessive. And there are certainly some fans who feel exactly what I said and have admitted as such. For me, going to wait to see this season play out before I take such a rigid stance.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

Andy doesn't and hasn't. Mahomes is clearly a different beast well on his way to super stardom.

 

Alex is on pace for career high yards. All of it is pointless because we are 4 games in. We have the same record right now with John Beck that we did after 4 games the past 3 seasons under the great Kirk Cousins.

 

Last week was disgusting. I don't even know where to start, but if that's how this season is going to go it's time to hit the reset and bring in a fresh GM and head coach. But a lot of time left, we all remember the code red game that launched Kirk Cousins career. Far too early to make a definitive call on how this all shakes out.

 

Sure, I said it many times. I of all people I am not making definitive calls as to the team and ditto Alex.  4 games is a small sample.  I've told you specifically many times -- I am unsure about this team for better or worse.   That hasn't changed after this week.  The team is up and down.  Does it settle in one way or another?  I don't know.  I heard someone on the radio say that only 2 teams on the schedule left have a winning record.  That's good.  But again tough to gauge other teams too this early with some exceptions.  I think they rebound this Sunday.  And if so the question is then what?  Can they win 2 in a row?  Not saying they can't.  But I need to see it to start believing it.  But I am not negative either.  Judging by my predictions, I am more optimistic.  I predicted wins every game but one. 

 

Kirk is a sore spot between me and you in discussions.  I explained my position the other day to someone who actually asked me to explain.  And you put the laugh emoji on my explanation.  So I responded in kind.  So i am not even going to bother talking about it with you.  I'll agree to disagree.  I think you are as wildly wrong on the topic as you think I am.  So got no interest in another spitting match on it.

 

As for Alex, the whole point about Andy wasn't about whether it was true as for those stats.  Yeah it is true.  The point of contention was Andy's offenses limit QBs from being big number guys, that's just not how Andy rolls.  And someone suggested that Alex could put up big numbers once he leaves the nest with Andy.  My response was maybe so but maybe not.  The irony is Alex has from what I heard put up career high in attempts if the season keeps going on this track so he might hit 4000 yards after all.  He's on track for 16 Tds, though. 

 

Just watching him thus far, i don't get the sense he's headed to put up big numbers.  But the season is young.  He could kill it for the rest of the season.  And it takes time to adjust to a new coach-teammates, etc.   I called it as the GB came closer that I think they can surprise and Alex would rebound from the Indy game.  I am calling it again, big game against Carolina.  I watched Carolina last week and wasn't impressed.  I like going into this game with an angry team -- angry Jay, angry Alex, etc.  And I bet we get the Alex is winner narrative cooking on the thread again in 5 days -- and no sarcasm intended from me -- I hope that's the discussion that goes down.  

 

The key for me is a healthy Peterson.  Him Thompson and Reed.  I've been on that for most of the off season. Peterson being the exception since he wasn't on the roster but its clear so far this year if Peterson has a big game, the team wins.  As for Reed, I am not sure what to make of it now considering he hasn't really been a big part of the offense, yet.

 

This article hits the inconsistency with this team via Jerry Brewer.  I don't think its all Jay by any stretch like Brewer seems to push.  But he has a point about the ups and downs over the years and how so far this season is a microcosm of it. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/redskins-cant-sustain-success-and-jay-gruden-is-running-out-of-time/2018/10/09/78d392a0-cbc0-11e8-a3e6-44daa3d35ede_story.html?utm_term=.25c2724afb1d

 

[dckey]

24 minutes ago, Destino said:

I'll grant you that stats can be misleading.  Looking at too small a sample size, for example, often leads to over reactions.  How many QBs have we seen turn a good season, or even a good portion of a season filling in or an injured starter, into a payday? 

 

QBs that are legitimately good will be consistently productive and stats measure productivity.  How exactly would we define "good qb" which wouldn't result in fairly good stats at the end of the year.  Moving the offense down the field, scoring points, and limiting turnovers are all things good QBs are expected to do and all of that shows up on a stat sheet.

 

Wins and losses however, are a terrible measure for determining QB play.  I'll give you two examples: Drew Brees 2016 and Peyton Manning 2015.  Brees had an amazing year and won just 7 games.  Manning was the lowest rated passer in the league and yet still managed to win the damn superbowl. 

Good point!!!!  My argument has never been that Kirk is a bad qb, but when you pay elite money to good qb's your teams normally suffer with wins.  There have been to many cases, look at every team that paid there qb's high market value money and look what happened to the team wins.  NO after Brees contract last time went from 13-3 to 7-9; GB went from 11-5 to 8-7 on Rodgers last contract; OAK went from 12-4 to 6-10.  There is not one team that signed there qb to a high value contract that had more wins the next 2 years after he signed.  IMO that is a direct reflection of wins and losses to paying a QB.

[JoggingGod]

23 minutes ago, dckey said:

Good point!!!!  My argument has never been that Kirk is a bad qb, but when you pay elite money to good qb's your teams normally suffer with wins.  There have been to many cases, look at every team that paid there qb's high market value money and look what happened to the team wins.  NO after Brees contract last time went from 13-3 to 7-9; GB went from 11-5 to 8-7 on Rodgers last contract; OAK went from 12-4 to 6-10.  There is not one team that signed there qb to a high value contract that had more wins the next 2 years after he signed.  IMO that is a direct reflection of wins and losses to paying a QB.

We payed a bad QB $24 million a year lol. We apply here so much.

[Destino]

30 minutes ago, dckey said:

Good point!!!!  My argument has never been that Kirk is a bad qb, but when you pay elite money to good qb's your teams normally suffer with wins.  There have been to many cases, look at every team that paid there qb's high market value money and look what happened to the team wins.  NO after Brees contract last time went from 13-3 to 7-9; GB went from 11-5 to 8-7 on Rodgers last contract; OAK went from 12-4 to 6-10.  There is not one team that signed there qb to a high value contract that had more wins the next 2 years after he signed.  IMO that is a direct reflection of wins and losses to paying a QB.

 

I wonder how much of that is just the nature of the NFL.  Take the Lions for example, the last time they had a winning season and then won more games the following season... was 1995.  The Saints haven't made the playoffs and then won more games the following season, the entire time Brees has been there.  Teams seesaw in the standings.  

 

Some teams have really dropped off after a big QB deal, but that might also be because of other factors as well.  There are really very few teams that consistently stay great.  Steelers and Pats come to mind.... no sure who else.   

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

1 hour ago, HardcoreZorn said:

Fans are more desperate to vindicate their beliefs so that change occurs than they are interested in the success of the team or taking a more measured approach and rooting interest in the Quarterback of the team.

 

I'm sorry we can't all provide the sober, clear-headed analysis of you when watching a QB who has always been afraid to throw the ball downfield be afraid to throw the ball downfield as he plays for a team that for 25 years has always made the wrong decision.

 

I'm taking your advice. I'm putting on a smoking jacket, lighting a pipe, and I'm using these next 12 games to carefully consider all options on the type of player Young Mister Smith is.

 

I'll provide you a full report in February.

 

Indeed.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Honest question. Are the rest of you aware of the NFL in general or do you think it's a production company that only produces Redskins games?

 

This idea that 4 games is a small sample size for Alex Smith is hysterical. He's been in the league for 25 years. We all remember that breakout performance against Don Shula's Dolphins, right? That's the one game where he really showed us what he might be capable of.

 

Anyway, the point is, Monday Night was as bad as an Alex Smith game can be. But it was still recognizable as an Alex Smith game. The scary part is not that he played terribly. The scary part is that he played terribly while playing like Alex Smith.

 

This is the problem, having Alex Smith as your quarterback limits you tremendously. But if Alex Smith doesn't do the basic Alex Smith things like hit a running back in a place where the running back can run for 6 yards after the catch, you're doomed.

 

(I always say "Alex Smith," not "Alex" or "Smith").

 

If we reach the point, where he loses the ability to do the few things he does really well, we are well screwed for the next three years.

 

It's one thing to have an aging Ben Roethlisberger where his deep ball is suddenly going 45 yards in the air instead of 55 yards in the air.

 

It's another to have an aging Alex Smith if he loses the ability to hit a Tight End with a 6 yard buttonhook.

 

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

6 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

(I always say "Alex Smith," not "Alex" or "Smith").

 

 

 

Who else would love to know how many times LKB has muttered this? 

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

Honest question. Are the rest of you aware of the NFL in general or do you think it's a production company that only produces Redskins games?

 

This idea that 4 games is a small sample size for Alex Smith is hysterical. He's been in the league for 25 years. We all remember that breakout performance against Don Shula's Dolphins, right? That's the one game where he really showed us what he might be capable of.

 

If we reach the point, where he loses the ability to do the few things he does really well, we are well screwed for the next three years.

 

It's one thing to have an aging Ben Roethlisberger where his deep ball is suddenly going 45 yards in the air instead of 55 yards in the air.

 

It's another to have an aging Alex Smith if he loses the ability to hit a Tight End with a 6 yard buttonhook.

 

 

 

Alex right now looks like his typical rap -- conservative-game manager type where his best asset is that he typically won't lose the game for you.  I was at the Arizona game and wasn't blown away even though they won -- what was his best completion in that game like 12 yards?  He had a deep ball completion against GB but even Alex admitted that he didn't throw it to the right spot but Richardson bailed him out.  He did play very well in that first half against GB.

 

Leading up to the season there was some dialogue about whether the 2017 version of Alex is the real new version of him.  Alex himself said he thinks he is just getting better.  Louis Reddick said he was unimpressed with Alex through most of his career but liked a lot who he became last season so now he's sold on the new Alex Smith so to speak.  So there is this narrative that his less conservative ways last year is the new Alex.  Does he look like the 2017 version thus far?  Nope.  Is my gut that it was the perfect storm for him last year to have a career year with electric weapons?  Yes. 

 

But do I think 4 games is enough of a sample size to judge if the 2017 version of the dude is the new reality or not.  I don't think so.  At least not for me.  But yeah if you feel like you've landed hard on a spot on it, I get it.  He definitely looks like as advertised thus far as to his critics.    I feel personally its a bit harsh to judge so fast.  And I agree he has a long career to judge and I agree with your point this is who he has been for most of his career.  But to me a remaining question is has he changed and 2017 is the new normal for him.

[dckey]

47 minutes ago, Destino said:

 

I wonder how much of that is just the nature of the NFL.  Take the Lions for example, the last time they had a winning season and then won more games the following season... was 1995.  The Saints haven't made the playoffs and then won more games the following season, the entire time Brees has been there.  Teams seesaw in the standings.  

 

Some teams have really dropped off after a big QB deal, but that might also be because of other factors as well.  There are really very few teams that consistently stay great.  Steelers and Pats come to mind.... no sure who else.   

I truly believe that it is the other factors, like loosing key players that helped win games.  It's just interesting to me that the 2 teams  you name that did not take top 5 money Brady and Big Ben had successful seasons after signing

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Another thing we need to keep in mind with Alex Smith through the first month is how Jay Gruden offenses tend to start...

 

In Cousins' first year as the starter (2015) we only averaged about 240 yards passing over our first 4 games (also 2-2). Last year (2017) we averaged only 230ish yards passing per game over a 2-2 start. In 2016, we came out of the gate hot...but we piled up a lot of yards in a bad loss vs. Pittsburgh to start the season. 

 

So, I'll just keep saying I think we should wait and see. In every one of those years we had a couple losses combined with some grind-it-out wins and then our passing game hit its stride later in the year. We ended each season averaging about 20-25 yards per game more than our first 4-game sample. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

6 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

Another thing we need to keep in mind with Alex Smith through the first month is how Jay Gruden offenses tend to start...

 

In Cousins' first year as the starter (2015) we only averaged about 240 yards passing over our first 4 games (also 2-2). Last year (2017) we averaged only 230ish yards passing per game over a 2-2 start. In 2016, we came out of the gate hot...but we piled up a lot of yards in a bad loss vs. Pittsburgh to start the season. 

 

So, I'll just keep saying I think we should wait and see. In every one of those years we had a couple losses combined with some grind-it-out wins and then our passing game hit its stride later in the year. We ended each season averaging about 20-25 yards per game more than our first 4-game sample. 

 

With a QB who throws the ball more than ten yards downfield.

 

(I should point out that Alex Smith offends me from an aesthetic perspective. I hate the version of football that he plays. I honestly would rather go 5-11 with Rex Grossman throwing the ball 70 yards into triple coverage than go 8-8 or whatever with this).