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2018 ES GMs Mock Draft is complete!


Epochalypse

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2 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

I wish Jackson had lasted that long in our draft, haha.

I had him off my board in the first round.  He's a one-hit-wonder and an extreme liability in the run game.  If you run the ball right at him, he still won't get involved in the play.  Seems GMs agree with me.

 

1 hour ago, Cypress said:

Let me put it on record as saying if Derwin James had fallen to #17 I would have taken him too :P

I couldn't believe the Packers had traded back to 27 with James sitting there.  I mean, I get the appeal of grabbing another 1st rounder next year, but the Packers don't get very many opportunities to pick in the top 15, and there were a couple top-notch prospects sitting there waiting for them.  I hope Jaire Alexander is ready to contribute in a big way, because there's only so much time left in Rodgers' career.

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2 minutes ago, wilco_holland said:

Sooooo

 

I already have my first, second and fourth round player drafted in the real draft. ? Anybody can beat that? 

Well my first round pick was selected a few spots after I took him.  And the guy I tried to trade up for in the 2nd got drafted.  That's pretty close, right?

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1 hour ago, wilco_holland said:

Rashaan Evans +7

Frank Ragnow +41

Terrel Edmunds +101

 

Current score +149

 

Ragnow being off the board so early is one of the biggest shocks in an utterly mad first round to me. 

 

You look at what happened last night across the board and you think our evaluations ain’t so bad at all compared to some of the bat **** crazy NFL teams.

 

Hail.

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I am working on a spreadsheet for an initial grade for all of us. (I know, we can't make a true assessment for a few more years.) I've made two grading categories and a bonus for making a pick in the same slot as the NFL. Both categories take the difference between our mock picks and actual picks. The first uses the Jimmy Johnson draft values so that picks in the early rounds have more weight than those in the later rounds.The second just uses the pick numbers. Both categories are divided by the number of picks a team had in the mock.

 

So far, 11 teams have positive values! Congratulations are in order. Two other teams presently show positive values since they took players in later rounds but their first round picks weren't taken so their scores will eventually drop. (Steelers and 49ers)

 

It doesn't look like anyone will be able to catch the Jags. @wilco_holland is presently sitting at a +149 differential. That's amazing to say the least. Congrats!!

 

The Broncos are in second place at +54. The other teams in the plus column are:

3. Ravens

4. Colts

5. Dolphins

6. Browns

7. Rams

8. Lions

9. Chargers

10. Bills

11. Jets

 

When the draft is finalized I'll upload the completed sheet to Dropbox.

 

Edit: The values are not yet divided by the number of picks.

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3 hours ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

Ragnow being off the board so early is one of the biggest shocks in an utterly mad first round to me. 

 

You look at what happened last night across the board and you think our evaluations ain’t so bad at all compared to some of the bat **** crazy NFL teams.

 

Hail.

I was more surprised by the other Edmunds brother than Ragnow.

 

I assumed Pitt wasn't paying attention and grabbed the wrong one...

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8 hours ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

Ragnow being off the board so early is one of the biggest shocks in an utterly mad first round to me. 

 

You look at what happened last night across the board and you think our evaluations ain’t so bad at all compared to some of the bat **** crazy NFL teams.

 

Hail.

I would rather say that experts from the NFL believe Ragnow is a 1st round talent, while our ES experts believes he's a second or Terrell Edmunds is only worth a 4th rounder...

 

So, no That does not look good to our scouting ability, because we hardly recognize a good player when we see one :D

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4 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

I would rather say that experts from the NFL believe Ragnow is a 1st round talent, while our ES experts believes he's a second or Terrell Edmunds is only worth a 4th rounder...

 

So, no That does not look good to our scouting ability, because we hardly recognize a good player when we see one :D

1

 

Joking aside, on Ragnow, word is it's all down to football commitment and toughness. A lot of clubs have him graded way higher on attitude and desire over the FAR more talented/ higher talent graded Daniels. And with O-line by SO sparse in quality, had to take him high. 

 

Hail. 

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1 minute ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

 

Joking aside, on Ragnow, word is it's all down to football commitment and toughness. A lot of clubs have him graded way higher on attitude and desire over the FAR more talented/ higher talent graded Daniels. And with O-line by SO sparse in quality, had to take him high. 

 

Hail. 

True.

 

Sometimes I wonder why NFL teams value talent more than everything else. To me, attitude, commitment, work ethic, coachability and everything that goes with it is priority 1 when drafting a guy.

If he doesn't have all of these attributes, he'll be a good player at best, living on his talent and poor ceiling and at worst, he'll bust quite fast as coaches won't be able to take him anywhere...

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1 minute ago, Wildbunny said:

True.

 

Sometimes I wonder why NFL teams value talent more than everything else. To me, attitude, commitment, work ethic, coachability and everything that goes with it is priority 1 when drafting a guy.

If he doesn't have all of these attributes, he'll be a good player at best, living on his talent and poor ceiling and at worst, he'll bust quite fast as coaches won't be able to take him anywhere...

 

Which all makes doing a mock that much harder as we can only evaluate what we see. Unlike actual scouts who get to talk to these guys and everyone else connected to them under the sun to ascertain these things. 

 

Completely agree BTW. And FWIW, our take of Payne plays into all that. Saban gushes about his toughness and 100% dedication and commitment. 

 

Hail. 

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Time to see where our guys go, day 2 version

 

So far...

 

1. SAQUON BARKLEY went 2 (-1)

4. JOSH ALLEN went 7 (-3)

33. JAIRE ALEXANDER (+15)

35. CONNOR WILLIAMS (-15)

64. JESSIE BATES III (+10)

114. JEROME BAKER (+41)

132. TARVARUS MOORE (+37)

165. PJ HALL (+108)

 

All 8 Browns picks chosen in top 95. +192

 

and other picks

 

180. DAURICE FOUNTAIN

187. KALEN BALLAGE

202. MICHAEL DICKSON

255. MICHAEL JOSEPH

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The real Bears drafted Anthony Miller in the 2nd. I get to see the tandem I dreamed up happen in real life, very cool. Then a few picks later MJ  Stewart goes 2 rounds earlier than I picked him. Not a horrible start.

EDIT aaand Chad Thomas went a round earlier just now

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Well for Day 2, I had two guys go in the 2nd and one in the third.

 

Lorenzo Carter: I figured it was a reach when I took him, but my target was taken just a hint before my pick, it was late, and nobody was trading (then the next morning a stupid GM lamented about not being able to trade up after having not even talked to me after I announced my desire to trade back >:()  Anyways, he went about 20 picks after I took him dropping to the top of the 3rd.

 

Mike Gesicki: I trade up for him at the end of the 2nd and he went early/mid 2nd.

 

Dante Pettis: Took him in the 4th,  went just a couple picks after Gesicki.

 

 

Looking pretty good so far, especially since I already knew Carter was a reach, and he didn't fall as far as he potentially could have with the uncertainty surrounding his value.

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So interesting...

 

I picked Donte Jackson 1 pick early, and I picked Rasheem Green 1 pick early. 

 

Breeland Speaks was someone I had targeted for the third, but Rasheem Green was someone I rated higher and took earlier so I passed on him. I had the positional need idea right, but the value wrong apaprently :)

 

Got DJ Chark a good bit later than he went. Definitely felt like a value pick at the time of our draft, so was happy to see him go higher.

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