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2018 Free Agency Database - (Signed: WILLIAMS - McPhee - Scandrick - P-Rich) - (Lauvao, Bergstrom, Nsehke, Taylor, Z. Brown and Quick re-signed)


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6 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

1. I don't know of many organizations in which the coach did NOT make most, if not all of these decisions. We also know a couple things. Gruden has favorites, and Marshall is one of them. Bibbs never was. So, it's actually rather obvious that even though Bibbs has done something in then NFL (and not just on this team) Gruden also falls in loves with guys, despite what they actually do, or what other guys do.

 

You know this one! Its been documented fairly recently that  Bruce is meddling in playing time decisions. This is the point you and a few others just seem to not want to acknowledge - This is jsut not a normal team!!  The FO is all kinds of ****ed up - thank you Bruce and Dan. And you know I am not saying Jay is blameless. However, I put much more of the problem on Bruce than Jay. i would like to see how he does in a normal organization that is not being run by two morons. 

 

And all coaches fall in love with guys - and guys that the fans say - WTF is that guy here for? And yes, it's every single HC in the NFL - even NE. I have a cousin who is a diehard NE fan and there is always some player they wish was not on the team. 

 

6 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

2. I'll go to point #1. Jay seems to not be the most objective guy. When you have reports of Cobb doing really well, the Saints signing him and we're once again, slow on the draw even with a bunch of issues at WR (Floyd is a ****ing starter for Peak's sake!), why not see if the guy blowing up on the PS can help? It's not like anyone else is doing anything? To be blunt, I don't really trust Gruden to be objective. He's too easy to fall in love with feel good stories and stick with them, even when they show everyone else  that you have better players, or you wont try to improve that spot because you think so highly of say.........................Rob Kelley.

 

See #1 - Same answer.  As far as Jay not being objective there is nothing to support that. Let's for a moment say this is normal organization in that the HC has personnel decision inputs in terms of who makes the team, who is called up etc. In those "normal" organizations, the position coaches have a lot of input. Isn't it really possible that Bill C and or Randy Jordan are really pushing for these guys and Jay is respecting his coaches? You could say maybe too much. But isn't that what a HC in a "normal" organization does? takes all the input then makes a call trying his best to respect the assistants positions? Cna;t really have this both ways - say Jay makes all personnel decisions since that' how it works in a "normal" organization but then ignore that assistants have a lot of input to the process - you have not said this specifically but it is implied when you hold Jay accountable for it all. 

 

Let me ask you this - if the team somehow wins the last two and get into the POs and then wins a game - will it change your mind at all about Jay? Honest question. 

 

 

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23 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

You know this one! Its been documented fairly recently that  Bruce is meddling in playing time decisions. This is the point you and a few others just seem to not want to acknowledge - This is jsut not a normal team!!  The FO is all kinds of ****ed up - thank you Bruce and Dan. And you know I am not saying Jay is blameless. However, I put much more of the problem on Bruce than Jay. i would like to see how he does in a normal organization that is not being run by two morons. 

 

And all coaches fall in love with guys - and guys that the fans say - WTF is that guy here for? And yes, it's every single HC in the NFL - even NE. I have a cousin who is a diehard NE fan and there is always some player they wish was not on the team. 

 

Not like you see here. Sorry.

 

23 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

See #1 - Same answer.  As far as Jay not being objective there is nothing to support that. Let's for a moment say this is normal organization in that the HC has personnel decision inputs in terms of who makes the team, who is called up etc. In those "normal" organizations, the position coaches have a lot of input. Isn't it really possible that Bill C and or Randy Jordan are really pushing for these guys and Jay is respecting his coaches? You could say maybe too much. But isn't that what a HC in a "normal" organization does? takes all the input then makes a call trying his best to respect the assistants positions? Cna;t really have this both ways - say Jay makes all personnel decisions since that' how it works in a "normal" organization but then ignore that assistants have a lot of input to the process - you have not said this specifically but it is implied when you hold Jay accountable for it all. 

 

23 hours ago, goskins10 said:

Let me ask you this - if the team somehow wins the last two and get into the POs and then wins a game - will it change your mind at all about Jay? Honest question. 

 

 

 

No. Three games does not erase 5 years. Not that it matters, as the skins lost. But played much better than I expected.

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40 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Not like you see here. Sorry.

 

Yes, absolutely like here. Need to look closer at other teams. 

 

40 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

 

No. Three games does not erase 5 years. Not that it matters, as the skins lost. But played much better than I expected.

 

 

Fair enough. I tend to agree. I really want Bruce gone. I am OK with Jay right now but would not be heart broken if they let him go. In fact if they let Bruce go I would want the new GM to pick his own HC. 

 

Unfortunately the tone deaf owner will do nothing this off-season, including keeping Bruce. Am waiting to hear after the season that Bruce traded for Flacco!!! 

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What are the chances we re-sign Preston Smith, Jamison Crowder and HaHa Clinton-Dix.

 

Per the list I just saw, Smith is the #12 projected FA, Dix is #15 ... Crowder not on the TOp 25.

 

Smith has a Market value of $10m per year according to Spotrac. Clinton-Dix is $9.3m per year.

 

Can't see us bringing them back at those rates given our cap issues this off-season.

 

Also, wonder how confident we are in Rueben Foster's availability? CJ Mosely is the top rated ILB should he actually hit the market and he's 27, and from Bama. Just sayin. Projected market value of $9.7 mil. per year though

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1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

What are the chances we re-sign Preston Smith, Jamison Crowder and HaHa Clinton-Dix.

 

We are already signing scrub replacements noted in the handful of posts before yours. I'd predict,

 

Smith gets 4/42 somewhere else

Crowder 3/18 somewhere else

Clinton-Dix 4/18 here but ends up a 2019 back up to a rookie.

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7 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

We are already signing scrub replacements noted in the handful of posts before yours. I'd predict,

 

Smith gets 4/42 somewhere else

Crowder 3/18 somewhere else

Clinton-Dix 4/18 here but ends up a 2019 back up to a rookie.

So that would be at least a 4th round comp and a 5th round comp in 2020

 

Smith does strike me as someone who's just gonna leave us. IDK why.

 

Clinton-Dix 4/18 would be nice.

 

If Smith walks, we almost have to go Edge early. Unless I missed Anderson developing this year. I know he's behind Smith in the rotation but he hasn't "popped" as a guy I would think we throw in as our de-facto edge rusher opposite Kerrigan. But the two Bama boys (if both come out) could be interesting 2nd or 3rd round choices. They may rise up the board in the coming months but where they're currently slated, they almost make too much sense.

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Jordan Reed finally to IR then.

 

Sadly it's time to move on from him in my opinion. Cap saving of over 6mil next year if he's off the books. Simply can't see how we justify keeping his contract into 2019.

 

I'd be looking to trade him in the offseason. If not he should be released.

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14 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

So that would be at least a 4th round comp and a 5th round comp in 2020

 

Gut reaction tells me that we will spend big on a couple of FA this offseason.

 

By the time Norman, Reed, Brown are jettisoned we'll have 40mil plus in space to use. Scherff will get extended, maybe restructure Kerrigan and that number will be 45mil plus. The purge could extend further. 

 

Not saying the approach will work, but Dan is gonna spend some cash IMO after a host of cuts.

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5 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Jordan Reed finally to IR then.

 

Sadly it's time to move on from him in my opinion. Cap saving of over 6mil next year if he's off the books. Simply can't see how we justify keeping his contract into 2019.

 

I'd be looking to trade him in the offseason. If not he should be released.

Speaking to both your points here. But my concern with parting with Reed is that TE is very hard to find in the NFL. Yes, he's been hurt more than not the last few years, but for his price tag and the cap savings that we'd recoup, there's simply not a talent out there to replace him unless you plan to spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on one of the guys coming out this year. And even then we've seen in recent years how it can take a few years to develop (See Ebron, OJ Howard). George Kittle is a rare exception, and it still took him until the end of Year 1 to emerge and he was a 3rd round pick. I am willing to entertain the idea of moving on from Reed, but IMO that is in 2020 ... and would require us to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick on his replacement this year.

3 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Gut reaction tells me that we will spend big on a couple of FA this offseason.

This team hasn't spent a lot of money in FA the last few years. We almost never enter the season with less than $8-10 million in cap space, and we've needed a decent chunk of that to cover the expenses of injury-replacements throughout the regular season.

 

Even if we do as you say and get to $45 million ... with the pick pool of likely $7 million and keeping $10 million to go into the season with, you're now down to $23-25 million to spend. That goes away very quickly if you start looking at what the market prices are for some of these FAs. Spotrac even has CLinton-Dix as a $9 million per year guy ... Preston Smith at $10 million per year.

 

Even if you wanted to go get a guy like CJ Mosely to play ILB (if the Ravens let him walk), he's likely to command $10 million per year. Of course the Year 1 cap hits are a few million below their average annual per year numbers, but that $23-25 million will go very quickly.

 

We've never had cap issues and Schaffer and team seem to manage things quite well, but I'm not sure we're in a position to really go break the bank.

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As far as the draft goes, I've always been a guy that wants to trade down and get more picks. There's too much time between now and the draft to truly speculate, but I would love to move back in the 1st or into the early 2nd and add picks. With the way our roster is constructed around Alex Smith, we are going to have to rely heavily on rookie contracts to get us through the next couple of years.

 

CB, TE, LG, S, ILB, EDGE ... those are positions we need to hit either in FA or the draft depending on who we re-sign or release. If you think a clear house is the way to go and we part with Brown, Norman, Reed and let Crowder and Smith walk in FA ... that leaves some very gaping holes that we are not going to be able to fill through our picks and our limited cap space. Just my $0.02 ... this might not be the year to cut Norman and Reed for the sake of cutting them to free up cap space. I don't necessarily trust whoever this front office is going to be comprised of to find the replacements.

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Clean House: Josh Norman, Zach Brown, Jordan Reed, Mason Foster, Vernon Davis

Cap Space with Rollover Funds: $45 million

 

Re-Sign: Preston Smith ($11m APY), HaHa Clinton-Dix ($8m APY), Jonathan Cooper ($2m APY), Tony Bergstrom ($1m APY), TJ Clemmings ($1m APY), Josh Johsnson ($1m APY), Adrian Peterson ($2m APY)


CAP SPACE REMAINING: $22 million

CAP NEEDED FOR DRAFT: $7 million

CAP NEEDED FOR SEASON: $8 million

CAP FOR FREE AGENCY: $7 million

 

Signed: S Derron Smith ($4m APY), ILB Stephone Anthony ($4m APY), TE Maxx Williams ($3m APY)

 

That's using FanSpeak.

 

It's actually not a terrible off-season leading into the draft. Not sure how realistic it is to bring back HaHa and Smith, but those market values are pretty high. I liked ILB Anthony coming out and he'd be a solid "2nd year contract" signing to compete to replace Foster/Brown. Williams has underperformed in Baltimore but might thrive in a new setting and would be cheap. And if you're cutting Reed AND Davis, you have to bring in at least one decent FA option. And I also liked Smith coming out as a SS, so he'd be penciled in next to HaHa with Nicholson Everett and Apke providing depth. And honestly Nicholson is such a ? now with his arrest, you almost have to assume he's going to be suspended.

 

You then go into the draft needing to draft a CB, LG, WR, TE, ILB and EDGE (mainly for depth).

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5 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Clean House: Josh Norman, Zach Brown, Jordan Reed, Mason Foster, Vernon Davis

Cap Space with Rollover Funds: $45 million

 

 Jonathan Cooper ($2m APY), Tony Bergstrom ($1m APY) Josh Johnson ($1m APY), Adrian Peterson ($2m APY)

 

 

I'd do this part of it.  I've been in the crowd of finding FAs that in my mind would help this team lift from mediocre to really good.  This off season, I am doing a 180 on it especially if Bruce is back. 

 

Go cheap and flea market shopping again Bruce  or don't sign any FAs at all-- rebuild their cap situation for the future, have a bad season to get Tua or Fromm in 2020.  And reset in 2020.

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15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd do this part of it.  I've been in the crowd of finding FAs that in my mind would help this team lift from mediocre to really good.  This off season, I am doing a 180 on it especially if Bruce is back. 

 

Go cheap and flea market shopping again Bruce  or don't sign any FAs at all-- rebuild their cap situation for the future, have a bad season to get Tua or Fromm in 2020.  And reset in 2020.

I'm honestly not sure that's the case. That might be what the fans want, but I don't think that's what is going to end up happening. Especially if Bruce Allen is back, because he's going to want to secure his job, as is Jay. And I would bet money that the front office thinks they can make a run at the playoffs next year with full health.

 

If you keep the defense in tact and you go get a stud LG to anchor the OL and put Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson in the backfield, you may not need Alex Smith to play or play lights out to be a competitor. The front office is and has been convinced the last few years that the talent is there to win. And in fairness, up until Week 10 this year it WAS. We were a blown call away from beating the Texans and being 7-3. I think we forget that and are clouded by the chaos of the last few weeks.

 

I'm not saying that we plan to go break the bank and use up all of our cap space, but I will bet good money that the conversation around here come the draft is that we are a good team that can make another run if we can maintain health.

 

AND if in two months the word is that Alex Smith is going to play in 2019, even if with a bridge from Colt for the first few games of the season, the narrative around the team is going to change. Yes, we likely need to find a long-term solution at QB beyond 2020 ... but I'm not sure even if we TRIED to tank, that this team would put itself in a position to get a top pick to draft a stud QB in 2020. Yes, we can trade up for one, and maybe that's what ends up happening regardless, but the defense and the running game are likely to carry us to at least .500 next year once again.

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16 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I'm honestly not sure that's the case. That might be what the fans want, but I don't think that's what is going to end up happening. Especially if Bruce Allen is back, because he's going to want to secure his job, as is Jay. And I would bet money that the front office thinks they can make a run at the playoffs next year with full health.

 

 

Oh yeah don't get me wrong.  This is what I'd do not what I think they'd do.  Dan NEVER likes to reboot.  So there is a better chance that they draft me next year in the first round than any of this to happen.  And agree if Bruce is back he'd scramble to save his job so no reboot coming.

 

16 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

I'm not saying that we plan to go break the bank and use up all of our cap space, but I will bet good money that the conversation around here come the draft is that we are a good team that can make another run if we can maintain health.

 

 

I'd bet good money too -- and I bet they even feel stronger than this.  Just about every beat guy is saying Bruce is likely back because he sold Dan that the 6-3 start is the real team and they are close to the promised land. 

 

16 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

AND if in two months the word is that Alex Smith is going to play in 2019, even if with a bridge from Colt for the first few games of the season, the narrative around the team is going to change. Yes, we likely need to find a long-term solution at QB beyond 2020 ... but I'm not sure even if we TRIED to tank, that this team would put itself in a position to get a top pick to draft a stud QB in 2020. Yes, we can trade up for one, and maybe that's what ends up happening regardless, but the defense and the running game are likely to carry us to at least .500 next year once again.

 

Agree with all of this too except the "at least" part.  I don't think it matters personally whether Alex is back or not.   I think they have too many holes this time for Bruce to patch up with his bargain basement style FA tendencies.  I think its going to go south.  And I've not felt this way the previous 3 years.  I've been upbeat about their chances in recent years. 

 

This time, I think we got the perfect storm with too many holes, too little cap room, too much uncertainty to "meh" players at QB.   This time I think 8-8 is their ceiling.  Unless, Bruce radically changes his FA approach and even if he did not sure he has the cap room to make a dent. 

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Truth be told for cuts I would only cut Brown. Did not like the move resigning him last year and it seems like his time is done here as it should be. Hamilton has already surpassed him. The cap hit on Norman and Reed can wait another year. No sense in it for this year. Probably don't want to have to replace too much in one go. Norman IMO is still the best corner we have. We do way better drafting than FA IMO but we should snag one of the safeties out there. Preston can walk due to the abundant talent in the upcoming draft. I think he is easily replaced. More worried about keeping Crowder than anyone else. Needs to be resigned if reasonable.  Peterson, Cooper, Johnson and possibly Mo Harris are the only others worth keeping. 

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1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

This time, I think we got the perfect storm with too many holes, too little cap room, too much uncertainty to "meh" players at QB.   This time I think 8-8 is their ceiling.  Unless, Bruce radically changes his FA approach and even if he did not sure he has the cap room to make a dent. 

We're basically of the same mindset except for this: I trust our youth and depth because of the last few drafts.


I think we forget that we've been starting a 7th round and UDFA at CB the last 4-5 weeks. Danny Johnson and Greg Stroman were brought in to be youthful depth to be groomed for years down the line, not be inserted into the lineup in 2018. The fact that this defense has kept us in MOST of the games down the stretch with that is impressive.

 

Let's look at this a bit more optimistically.

 

Let's say Rueben Foster is cleared and ends up playing next year. Him and Dion-Hamilton are actually a nice sounding duo at ILB. Adonis Alexander basically redshirted this year, but had he come out in the 2019 draft word was he likely would have been a 1st-3rd round type. Greg Stroman and Danny Johnson who had no business being on the field, now have valuable playing time under their belts. Fabian Moreau has played pretty well. Dunbar has potential when healthy as well and was signed to be a starting CB for us.

 

We've seen over the last few years that injuries take their toll, but it's also shown us that this team can still compete with guys who have no business starting.

 

Build the depth. Continue to build the depth. Through the draft especially. But if we can bring back Smith, HaHa and Crowder for 2019, and draft well, I don't think we need a big FA class to be competitive next year.

 

Bring back HaHa, Norman, Reed, Smith and Crowder. Don't sign any other major FAs. Go into the draft and get a stud LG or Center that truly makes the healthy line dominant. Build around the defense and the run game. The pieces are already there. If you can trade back in the draft and accumulate some more 2s and 3s, take a flier on a QB. But I think the pieces are there. We just need to stay healthy and execute.

I know this is the FA thread, but I just ran a mock off-season that only cut Davis and Brown. I re-signed Smith, AP, Crowder, Johnson and Cooper.

 

I traded back into the 2nd and got another 3/4/5.

 

I drafted TE Irv Smith from Alabama in the 2nd along with WR Marquise Brown. With the 3 3rd round picks I took a LG from Michigan, QB Brett Rypien from Boise and a Safety from Wyoming. I got a CB in the 4th and spent my two 5th round picks on two Bama boys I doubt will enter (due to injury but massive pedigree) at ILB and EDGE.


That sort of off-season would replinsih the ranks and put a lot of hope into the 2019 season.

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If this team is smart, which they are not, they really need to consider selling or cutting assets at a pace unlike anything we've seen before.

 

A. Smith

C. McCoy

C. Thompson

S. Perine

R. Kelly

J. Reed

J. Crowder

J. Doctson

P. Richardson

M. Moses

S. Lavou

P. Smith

Z. Brown

M. Foster

J. Norman

H. Clinton-Dix

M. Nicholson

 

Should all be gone either via trade, cut or just not resigned. That is a lot to lose in one off season but we can't continue with these players who are either not good or often injured. Need to get faster, younger and smarter and these players don't provide much in that aspect.

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12 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

We're basically of the same mindset except for this: I trust our youth and depth because of the last few drafts.

 

 

I am not that far from you.  But here's what I think they do.

 

Let Clinton-Dix, Crowder, Preston Smith go.  Release Vernon Davis, Zach Brown, Josh Norman.

 

Alex doesn't play again (I like the dude as a person but think he's a so so QB so even if he returned it doesn't do much for my optimism).  Colt starts and lasts maybe 4 games.  

 

They sign a WR FA -- maybe Funchess and otherwise just the usual junk veterans who don't make an impact.

 

In the draft they take a pass rusher in the first or 2nd  to replace Preston -- Sweat, Polite, Winovich or whomever.

 

they probably can't resist taking Rypien in the third if he's still here.  

 

The rest of what they do is tougher to guess.  And granted I am just guessing.   I am not granting Reuben Foster is going to play because I think he's at best suspended for part of the year.   So I think they are going to need 2 CBs, MLB, TE, WR, 2 safeties, LG., OLB.  

 

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22 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

Truth be told for cuts I would only cut Brown. Did not like the move resigning him last year and it seems like his time is done here as it should be. Hamilton has already surpassed him. The cap hit on Norman and Reed can wait another year. No sense in it for this year. Probably don't want to have to replace too much in one go. Norman IMO is still the best corner we have. We do way better drafting than FA IMO but we should snag one of the safeties out there. Preston can walk due to the abundant talent in the upcoming draft. I think he is easily replaced. More worried about keeping Crowder than anyone else. Needs to be resigned if reasonable.  Peterson, Cooper, Johnson and possibly Mo Harris are the only others worth keeping. 

Yeah, this is kind of where I am now. Norman and Reed come off the books in 2020. We can make the cap work for this upcoming year. The draft is pretty loaded at Edge and Guard, and maybe that's where we invest the first couple of picks.

 

Safety is the one position that I don't know the solution to. You need bodies there regardless as going into the off-season you only have Apke, Nicholson and Everett. I figure we'll likely spend the usual 4th or 5th round pick (if we acquire a 4th that is) on a safety. But we should try to re-sign HaHa for some continuity.

 

The more we turn our defense into Alabama the better IMO.

 

With the way Free Agency has gone the last few years, though, I would expect Smith and Crowder to sign big deals elsewhere. They'll get overpaid. We may have to turn to the draft to replace them. That's the most likely scenario IMO. I'm not sure how Ryan Anderson has done this year and whether he can truly be expected to step in and replace Smith. We would likely have to spend a 1st or 2nd on an Edge in Smith were to walk.

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

they probably can't resist taking Rypien in the third if he's still here. 

 

I mean this is probably accurate AF. This team (Snyder) loves to harken back to the days of old. Bruce Allen the GM. Doug Williams the VP Of Player Personnel. Why not bring in a Rypien to hype up the fanbase?

 

For the record, I do think Rypien has some potential, and he and Finley would be guys I'd want to target in the 3rd or 4th if the strategy is to get a young guy in to learn the ropes to take over in 2020 from Smith/McCoy.

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Let Clinton-Dix, Crowder, Preston Smith go.  Release Vernon Davis, Zach Brown, Josh Norman. 

This would likely net 3 comp picks in the 3rd-4th round in 2020 if we didn't bring anyone big in to replace them, which is a strategy that I like.

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