Jay Gruden: Buy, Sell Or HOLD: 2017 edition

[fordranger76]

25 minutes ago, LaxBuddy21 said:

I wonder how Jay would do with that talent compared to ours. Outside of quarterback and a few OL positions, they crush us in almost every aspect talent wise. That game was a Gurley win. When was the last time we had a running game that could do that?

The question is does McVay run a game plan similar to what we do? I would wager a yes on that. I saw a WR reverse yesterday that the Rams ran to perfection with receivers blocking and oline down the field. We ran it with Doctson and stuffed in the backfield. Difference in our play? Did not get a finger on the defense. Execution by his players is the difference IMO. If we had Gurley our ground game would flourish. Our OL is nowhere near as bad as people think it is. The running backs however are a different story.  Stevie Wonder has better vision than our guys.

 

I also remember last year that people were calling for McVay's head with calling the fade. Never worked. Now they are in love with him and want him back. Many times we saw the receivers open but the throw was off or a back missed a block or something along those lines. That Rams team has been a beast in waiting for many years. It just needed someone to awaken it. Enter fade calling McVay. Folks need to keep in mind that typically when you have a good head coach their assistants leave also to become head coaches as well. Gruden gets not a blip for grooming him. If you were to listen to some fans Gruden was lucky to be in the golden childs presence while he was here. Problem with the Skins is we have been wracked with injuries hampering the roster and playcalling so therefor it must be the coach which couldnt be further from the truth.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

23 minutes ago, jschuck12001 said:

 

They have ridiculous talent, all they needed was a decent offensive mind to run that team.

Agreed.

 

Which is why it cracks me up when I see folks here losing their minds over McVay.  A lot of times it's the same folks that did nothing but cry and whine about playcalling in years past. 

 

I'm not diminishing what McVay has done by any stretch.  In fact, I'm glad to see him have success.  They are a fun team to watch.  But this team was loaded and I'm not sure if their recent success is more of a credit to McVay than it is the nail in Jeff Fisher's coffin as a coach in the NFL. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

19 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

But this team was loaded and I'm not sure if their recent success is more of a credit to McVay than it is the nail in Jeff Fisher's coffin as a coach in the NFL. 

It was both. McVay is smart as a tack, knows how to motivate people, and is a really good offensive guy.  He's somewhat of a QB whisperer also.  

 

That said,  I've never seen a coach get so much leverage out of:

1. Being a horses patoot

2. facial hair that makes you look tough

3. one SB appearance on a team that had a lot of talent.  That Tennessee SB team that lost to the Rams, that defense was legitimate, McNaire/George were really good together.  They weren't flashy, but they were good. 

 

Minus that 1 season, Fisher did a whole lot of average or below average.  It's pretty clear that the Titans got to the SB and he was there, rather than he was the reason they were there.  

[skins4eva]

20 hours ago, Newera said:

Rams 40 - 0.   Over Seattle in Seattle.  Did we get rid of wrong coach.   Starting to look like it.   

 

As unfortunate as we've been on the injury front, that's how fortunate the Rams have been.  They are the only team in the league who has had the same five offensive linemen start every game.

[88Comrade2000]

The simple fact is, Gruden is a mediocre coach and his destiny is to be eventually fired by the Redskins.  That firing may not happen for 1 or 2 more years but that is his destiny.  If the team was healthy, this maybe would've been 8-6 instead of 6-8 and fighting for that last wild card spot. That's the best that would've happen, if the injuries didn't happen.  That will be the best of what will happen in 2018; if Kirk returns.  If he doesn't; Gruden probably finishes the way he started in 2014 and then gets the ax.

[Wildbunny]

Every coach is destined to be fired eventually. They all know that from the beginning. That's part of their job.

[88Comrade2000]

What if the Bengals offers picks or picks and a player for Jay?  Does Snyder do the deal?

[skinfan2k]

This roster is straight trash yet he has this team with Kirk going to be near .500.  Thats amazing

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

What if the Bengals offers picks or picks and a player for Jay?  Does Snyder do the deal?

He should I’m a heartbeat.  But I don’t think Bruce would let a fellow member of the Tampa Bay crew leave

[TSO]

McVay was always an excellent coach here. Jay is as well.  

 

The difference is one of them is no longer wearing Skins' gear and is operating within a Front Office structure that makes sense.

 

One day there won't be anyone focusing so intensely on the coaches here anymore... they're fine and they're not our problem the vast majority of the time. Fortunately, more and more seem to be waking up to this, which must suck for Dan and whoever his top exec is at any given time. That's their go-to in order to pacify fans who are too "surface oriented" and overly focus on the HC and QB. 

 

Our problems lie behind the scenes, with those who operate within a shroud of secrecy. They simply NEVER elevate people they hire to become the best version of themselves. It's always the worst version of themselves. When someone is good at something and gets hired here, why is it that they never improve here, even on that one thing they were good at in the first place? Usually, they fail miserably as they regress at that very thing they've always been good at and then at any other level they're tasked with. The best they can do is maybe maintain what they were good at to some degree. But that's it. That's all the proof one should need to understand the root cause if one also grasps the fundamental purport of "organization"; namely, to provide a support structure that benefits everyone within it. 

 

We saw a version of McVay here that was likely his worst, with obstacles presented to him by the same FO that's supposed to be doing the opposite, yet he still thrived for the most part - though many fans failed to recognize it and now act like they saw it all along (lol). Now we're seeing him at his best under a FO that actually provides support instead of obstacles to overcome. Same is happening to Jay now and same would also happen to Jay if he went elsewhere with a good organizational setup.

[goskins10]

On 12/19/2017 at 4:32 AM, Rdskns2000 said:

The simple fact is, Gruden is a mediocre coach and his destiny is to be eventually fired by the Redskins.  That firing may not happen for 1 or 2 more years but that is his destiny.  If the team was healthy, this maybe would've been 8-6 instead of 6-8 and fighting for that last wild card spot. That's the best that would've happen, if the injuries didn't happen.  That will be the best of what will happen in 2018; if Kirk returns.  If he doesn't; Gruden probably finishes the way he started in 2014 and then gets the ax.

 

The only "simple fact" is that you don't like Gruden and therefore believe him to be mediocre. However, you thinking he is mediocre does not make him such. It's just your opinion. And I would love to have your crystal ball that shows you to a certainty exactly what would have happened without injuries and what exactly will happen next year. Again, it's clearly all speculative that you have framed as "fact". 

 

While you do mention injuries, you completely down play them as only having minimal impact. 18 players on IR many of whom were projected starters. That does not count all the players that have missed games due to injury. The fact that Jay had this team still competing after many of those injuries is an amazing feat. See the chart below for the number of man games lost and it's impact. 

 

He has done this while navigating what I believe to be one of the worst FO arrangements in the NFL. No real GM. A popular ex-player with a fairly poor overall record of player evaluation (See Sudfield a top 10 QB for starters), an ego maniac owner who thrives on making sure no one is comfortable in their jobs and a defacto GM that has run two other franchises into the ground and is really nothing more than a glorified CAP guy. 

 

People ignore all those actual facts because he doesn't call a QB sneak when they want him to or calls too many runs in their opinion or struggles with time clock management sometimes (although many times fans are wrong.) It's the difference between a micro view - I am mad now at this play, therefore he sucks all together vs. a macro view - he like everyone else makes mistakes but overall has done an amazing job considering all circumstances. 

 

And let's say they move on from Jay. Do you really have any confidence that DS and BA if he gets to stay can bring in anyone worth a ****? They will find someone who will take the job. There are only 32 in the world. However, will it be the best candidate or the one who is so under-qualified that they are willing to overlook the perils of this FO and ownership to get some HCing experience before moving somewhere else if they have any success or prove why no one else was interested and fail miserably?  

 

If Jay is fired from here, he will be coaching somewhere else pretty quickly. Anyone surviving this **** show of a FO and having any success at all will get at least one more chance somewhere. 

 

As stated above, here is the latest man games lost due to injury (Through game 14. It will be worse when game 15 is added). 

 

 

 

 

[OVCChairman]

4 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

 

As stated above, here is the latest man games lost due to injury (Through game 14. It will be worse when game 15 is added). 

 

 

 

 

 

That is a cool freakin table.

 

I didn't quote your whole response but would like to respond to it.  

 

 

 

It is impossible to completely quantify the effect the injuries had.  They absolutely had an impact.  Had we had 1/2 the injuries we did, chances are we're contending for a wild card right now,  seemingly with a clear path to where we need to be @ 11 wins.   I don't think it's out of the scope of reality to believe we've lost 3 games 'due to injury', but that's just my guess.  

 

That being said... we've also been in position in a couple games to have won them, despite the injuries, and all other factors, but we didn't.  Not all of it is on Jay, but there have been a few decisions in those games that impacted the outcome.  There have been numerous decisions made that have been questionable at best, that make it very difficult to believe that he is anything more than a really good OC who struggles as an HC.  He's still young in his career, and you really hope that he can gain experience and develop the management of those things.  Has he done quite a bit with a lot working against him?  Yes he has.  His play DESIGN has proven to be very effective but his gameplan and play calling at times has been very mediocre and predictable... at least from what I'm seeing. 

 

[Tsailand]

1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

there have been a few decisions in those games that impacted the outcome.  There have been numerous decisions made that have been questionable at best, that make it very difficult to believe that he is anything more than a really good OC who struggles as an HC. 

 

100% agree.  However, I think firing him and starting over yet again isn't the answer.  He needs to delegate some of his in-game responsibilities, at least until he grows as a head coach to the point where he can handle everything.

 

Would be a lot better if we had a real GM or team president to tell him this, rather than Bruce, Dan, or some guy whose only qualification is that he threw five TDs in one quarter 30 years ago.  

 

[OVCChairman]

1 hour ago, Tsailand said:

 

100% agree.  However, I think firing him and starting over yet again isn't the answer.  He needs to delegate some of his in-game responsibilities, at least until he grows as a head coach to the point where he can handle everything.

 

Would be a lot better if we had a real GM or team president to tell him this, rather than Bruce, Dan, or some guy whose only qualification is that he threw five TDs in one quarter 30 years ago.  

 

This is along the same thinking i have.  I have found myself more than a couple times this year, in the heat of the emotion watching a game, calling for his job.  In most cases, I've felt somewhat different come Tuesday after the game.  A lot of these issues could be compensated for if there was a true 2nd voice in the headset.  Someone who can say "but what about this" or just a 'fresh' set of eyes on the gameplans, as well as player evaluation.  I know we have Callahan, but I sometimes question his actual involvement in the offensive scheme.  It's known that Gruden has taken over calling plays, I want another alpha in there that's going to stand on the table for certain plays and players, as well as certain schematic things.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

@OVCChairman @Tsailand I agree with both of you.  Jay needs an OC.  He needs somebody to delegate the offense to, who can make sure players know what the hell they are doing, and hold them accountable.  Jay as the HC/OC/Playcaller doesn't work.  

 

Gotta change it up.  Do something different.  Hire an OC, delegate, focus on the big picture, make sure he holds his OC/DC accountable, and then they hold their position coaches accountable.  

 

Cooley keeps saying that there are mis-targets in the run game, and that on one our "favorite plays," Duo, we mis-block it 1/3 of the time.  That can't happen.  That's coaching.  You have to have an OC that realizes it, and then gets it fixed.  Doesn't matter how.  Cajole, scream, cut somebody, whatever.

 

We don't do that, and therefore we have the same mistakes over and over.  Well coached teams make mistakes.  But rarely make the mistake more than once.

 

[Tsailand]

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

on one our "favorite plays," Duo, we mis-block it 1/3 of the time. 

 

If you know your team misblocks a play 1/3rd of the time, you should stop calling it until they get it right.  Unless you are OK with immediate failure 1/3rd of the time, even before the defense gets to react.

 

Gruden has a tendency to call plays based on the the way they are supposed to work if all 11 Redskins do their job perfectly.  Instead he should be calling plays based on the average expected outcome, given the players he actually has on the field and the players the other team has on the field.

[OVCChairman]

10 minutes ago, Tsailand said:

 

If you know your team misblocks a play 1/3rd of the time, you should stop calling it until they get it right.  Unless you are OK with immediate failure 1/3rd of the time, even before the defense gets to react.

 

Gruden has a tendency to call plays based on the the way they are supposed to work if all 11 Redskins do their job perfectly.  Instead he should be calling plays based on the average expected outcome, given the players he actually has on the field and the players the other team has on the field.

If you run into a brick wall enough times it's gonna fall... even if it takes 30 years and more punishment than your body can handle.. BUT THERE'S A CHANCE!

[goskins10]

4 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

That is a cool freakin table.

 

I didn't quote your whole response but would like to respond to it.  

 

 

 

It is impossible to completely quantify the effect the injuries had.  They absolutely had an impact.  Had we had 1/2 the injuries we did, chances are we're contending for a wild card right now,  seemingly with a clear path to where we need to be @ 11 wins.   I don't think it's out of the scope of reality to believe we've lost 3 games 'due to injury', but that's just my guess.  

 

That being said... we've also been in position in a couple games to have won them, despite the injuries, and all other factors, but we didn't.  Not all of it is on Jay, but there have been a few decisions in those games that impacted the outcome.  There have been numerous decisions made that have been questionable at best, that make it very difficult to believe that he is anything more than a really good OC who struggles as an HC.  He's still young in his career, and you really hope that he can gain experience and develop the management of those things.  Has he done quite a bit with a lot working against him?  Yes he has.  His play DESIGN has proven to be very effective but his gameplan and play calling at times has been very mediocre and predictable... at least from what I'm seeing. 

 

 

Not sure if you caught it but they do try to quantify - although I totally agree there is no way to know how many wins it would make. But the larger the bubble, the more impact the injuries are. Below is the table sorted on impact - Redskins are 4th in most games lost and 9th in impact. I will post week 15 update once the site is updated. Should be later today. 

 

I firmly believe that many of those thoughts - play calling, game plan, time management - are magnified because we (and I include myself here) do not watch other teams with the same critical view. We do not have nearly as much invested so we if they screw up we say - glad it's not us and then we tend to remember the good decisions. Also, most people are not watching every play of every game of the other teams. I can tell you Tomlinson has had some horrid games as a HC if we applied the same scale as we apply to Jay. Same with Andy Ried, Pete Carroll and even Bill B himself. 

 

I am in no way saying Jay is great or perfect. Not in the least. But I do think we are overly critical many times. Also, many times are just plain wrong. "Just run it there!" Well if the other team knows you are running or has stopped that play all game, why would you do that? Several of his so called time management blunders were in fact the right decision. 

 

We also have to consider that game plans will be impacted by injuries. You can't ask guys off the street to know all the plays. And in football, all 11 need to be on the same page or it can be disastrous. I really believe that has made Jay simplify some of the game plans. 

 

I know it's frustrating to see them get close but give games away. But the flip side of that is the team had no business being close based on the injuries. It's a glass half full/half empty thing. With our team, the glass is half empty and we want heads when things do not go right. But with other teams the glass is half empty so mistakes are forgiven much more easily. 

 

I do not think his calling plays is a big problem at all. Having said that, I would never object to them hiring an OC to do that work. But not sure that is the biggest issue. 

 

 

 

[goskins10]

@OVCChairman and to anyone else interested. 

 

Overall Redskins are now: Man Games Lost 3rd (4th last week) - Injury Impact - 6th (9th last week):

 

Games Lost due to Injury: 

 

Impact of those injuries:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tsailand]

@OVCChairman

Yeah it sure is fun watching us run for 0-1 yards a pop every first down for 45 minutes, just so we can finally have an "established" run in the 4th quarter that gets 4-5 yards a pop on first down (but still can't convert a 3rd and 1).

 

How about just let Kirk sling it... honestly such a no-brainer.  On one hand you have a collection of RBs who can charitably be described as backups to JAGs, and more realistically could be called terrible.  On the other hand you have a franchise QB who is in the top-7 of most statistical categories every year, and is still playing at a high level even with garbage at WR.  Oh and he isn't under contract, so you don't even care if he gets hurt.

 

If I was Jay, I'd be riding Kirk like he was 2005 Clinton Portis.  Make him throw the ball until his arm falls off.

 

[purbeast]

I was listening to the radio earlier today and I forget which show it was on (think Grant and Danny or maybe the beginning of Chad Dukes) but they were talking to Jerry Brewer I think, and he brought up a good point.

 

If the Redskins were to get rid of Gruden, who the hell are they going to get?  It's not like there are any incredible coaches out there waiting for the Redskins job to open up.  If anything, good proven coaches probably don't want to have anything to do with the Redskins at all.  

 

If they were to fire Gruden and/or let Kirk Walk or don't sign him to an LTD, I think that may be the final straw for me with this franchise, because all it would really let me know is they have absolutely no plan.

[Voice_of_Reason]

10 minutes ago, purbeast said:

I was listening to the radio earlier today and I forget which show it was on (think Grant and Danny or maybe the beginning of Chad Dukes) but they were talking to Jerry Brewer I think, and he brought up a good point.

 

If the Redskins were to get rid of Gruden, who the hell are they going to get?  It's not like there are any incredible coaches out there waiting for the Redskins job to open up.  If anything, good proven coaches probably don't want to have anything to do with the Redskins at all.  

If we let Gruden walk, we'd have to let Bruce go also, and bring in a GM which would at least look like a fresh start.

 

Otherwise, they'd be looking at Zorn again.  Literally, they'd have to call Jim and see what he was up to.

 

The guy I would go after would be Todd Bowles.

 

 

20 minutes ago, Tsailand said:

@OVCChairman

Yeah it sure is fun watching us run for 0-1 yards a pop every first down for 45 minutes, just so we can finally have an "established" run in the 4th quarter that gets 4-5 yards a pop on first down (but still can't convert a 3rd and 1).

 

How about just let Kirk sling it... honestly such a no-brainer.  On one hand you have a collection of RBs who can charitably be described as backups to JAGs, and more realistically could be called terrible.  On the other hand you have a franchise QB who is in the top-7 of most statistical categories every year, and is still playing at a high level even with garbage at WR.  Oh and he isn't under contract, so you don't even care if he gets hurt.

 

If I was Jay, I'd be riding Kirk like he was 2005 Clinton Portis.  Make him throw the ball until his arm falls off.

 

Or how about ... run on second down after a completed pass?  Here are the only two option we seem to have to run the ball:

 

1. Run on 1st and 10

2. Run on 2nd and 10 after an incomplete pass

 

That's it.  That's the list.  SOMETIMES we run on 3rd and 1, but for us, that's mostly a passing down.  Which I'm actually ok with because our run game stinks.  

 

If you went quick-game on first down, completed the pass for 5-6 yards, and ran on second, that would be a nice change of pace.

 

McVay threw a fit (against himself) after the Dallas game in 2015 where they ran the ball on every first down, and swore he would never do that again.  He didn't.  

 

Jay still does.

[Mania]

16 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

The only "simple fact" is that you don't like Gruden and therefore believe him to be mediocre. However, you thinking he is mediocre does not make him such. It's just your opinion. And I would love to have your crystal ball that shows you to a certainty exactly what would have happened without injuries and what exactly will happen next year. Again, it's clearly all speculative that you have framed as "fact". 

 

While you do mention injuries, you completely down play them as only having minimal impact. 18 players on IR many of whom were projected starters. That does not count all the players that have missed games due to injury. The fact that Jay had this team still competing after many of those injuries is an amazing feat. See the chart below for the number of man games lost and it's impact. 

 

He has done this while navigating what I believe to be one of the worst FO arrangements in the NFL. No real GM. A popular ex-player with a fairly poor overall record of player evaluation (See Sudfield a top 10 QB for starters), an ego maniac owner who thrives on making sure no one is comfortable in their jobs and a defacto GM that has run two other franchises into the ground and is really nothing more than a glorified CAP guy. 

 

People ignore all those actual facts because he doesn't call a QB sneak when they want him to or calls too many runs in their opinion or struggles with time clock management sometimes (although many times fans are wrong.) It's the difference between a micro view - I am mad now at this play, therefore he sucks all together vs. a macro view - he like everyone else makes mistakes but overall has done an amazing job considering all circumstances. 

 

And let's say they move on from Jay. Do you really have any confidence that DS and BA if he gets to stay can bring in anyone worth a ****? They will find someone who will take the job. There are only 32 in the world. However, will it be the best candidate or the one who is so under-qualified that they are willing to overlook the perils of this FO and ownership to get some HCing experience before moving somewhere else if they have any success or prove why no one else was interested and fail miserably?  

 

If Jay is fired from here, he will be coaching somewhere else pretty quickly. Anyone surviving this **** show of a FO and having any success at all will get at least one more chance somewhere. 

 

As stated above, here is the latest man games lost due to injury (Through game 14. It will be worse when game 15 is added). 

 

 

 

 

Where did you find this

[skins island connection]

9 hours ago, Tsailand said:

 

100% agree.  However, I think firing him and starting over yet again isn't the answer.  He needs to delegate some of his in-game responsibilities, at least until he grows as a head coach to the point where he can handle everything.

 

Would be a lot better if we had a real GM or team president to tell him this, rather than Bruce, Dan, or some guy whose only qualification is that he threw five TDs in one quarter 30 years ago.  

 

 

 Sorry, not trying to be anal about it [ well, maybe a little ] but it was 4 TDs in a quarter.

But I do agree that firing him isn't really the best answer, and he DOES need an OC who can take the load off of his mind and let him focus on other aspects of the game.

 

But, if it is a package deal, where Gruden and Allen are either in or out together, then that changes the whole image of anything positive for the future of this team, and its almost a certainty that he has to go.

The question is who do they get as a GM?  Whomever it would be, they cannot come from Cleveland or Detroit; this team has seen enough failure from toss-aways from those teams.

[Mania]

5 hours ago, goskins10 said:

@OVCChairman and to anyone else interested. 

 

Overall Redskins are now: Man Games Lost 3rd (4th last week) - Injury Impact - 6th (9th last week):

 

Games Lost due to Injury: 

 

Impact of those injuries:

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s amazing that the Ravens can do what they are doing with all the injuries they had.  I mean they lost 4 guys on the offensive line and even the backups backups are now performing well.  I guess that’s what a real GM does.