Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

[@DCGoldPants]

 

[Jumbo]

16 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

 the moronathon over at Trump HQ

 

 

[Captain Wiggles]

Much like his other senses Trumps sense of humor is nonexistent. The assertion that he's "just joking" is completely absurd. 

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

It's definitely unpredictable. But an incumbent POTUS battling for re-election while simultaneously ignoring the worst national crisis we've had in 100 years doesn't sound like a winning strategy to me.

 

It still absolutely appalls me that this guy has around 40% approval. If these new mass infections end up in a new wave of mass deaths I don't see how it's going to do anything other than hurt Trump even more. And this could be in two states that are in play: Florida and Texas. In Florida, Trump is already down and in Texas, several polls have shown Biden basically tied with him. 

 

I doubt people in Texas and Florida will be more inclined than now to support Trump after a new wave of thousands of deaths with zero federal guidance or national testing and containment strategy. 

There are obviously multiple threads that still need to be pulled on this election. But one of the big ones, imo, is the number of people out there (and believe me, I've had to deal with a lot of them) who still think of Covid as a "hoax" or "overblown". But what breaks that spell (at least for those not completely devolved into cultism)? When someone they care about contracts the virus. There aren't a lot of people who are going to be dismissing or laughing off a pandemic when it hits close to home. 

 

So, things become worse and worse for Trumpy the more people test positive. In fact, it may the one thing that can get some of those diehards to finally abandon him. Even if not them, the ones who are leaning Biden or still undecided definitely aren't going to swing towards Trump as the virus becomes an existential threat to their families. Not when he's out there pretending the virus is over and done with and not doing anything to combat it.

 

Which is what is so ludicrously dumb about his "strategy". He's both allowing the virus to continue to wreak havoc, which is bad for him and the economy which is also bad for him, and he's ensuring that everyone who has to deal with the virus, directly or indirectly, sees him as the villain. 

 

And that is doubly bad when the spreading is going on at his campaign events.

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 hour ago, clietas said:

Much like his other senses Trumps sense of humor is nonexistent. The assertion that he's "just joking" is completely absurd. 

He also clearly doesn't even understand how humor works (see that Conan clip from years ago for proof of that). He often tries to say he's been "sarcastic" in order to get out of stupid things he's said. But people use sarcasm to mock things. ie. If someone said Mitch McConnell should be our next President, I i might say "that's a great idea", etc. But when he just out of the blue says that maybe we should be injecting disinfectants, what would the purpose of that "sarcasm" be? He's the only person raising it as a possibility. 

 

He does this often, and it makes it pretty damned obvious he doesn't even understand what sarcasm entails. 

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

 

Which is what is so ludicrously dumb about his "strategy". He's both allowing the virus to continue to wreak havoc, which is bad for him and the economy which is also bad for him, and he's ensuring that everyone who has to deal with the virus, directly or indirectly, sees him as the villain. 

 

And that is doubly bad when the spreading is going on at his campaign events.

 

i really do think that Trump may be the single least strategically gifted person to ever hold any public office in the US. His successes in politics are things that he's either stumbled into because even a bull in a china shop could potentially be in the right place at the right time, or that he's been led into by smarter people who are using him to serve their own ends. I've never seen someone who makes as many consistently bad decisions in a row as he does. 

[Captain Wiggles]

42 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

i really do think that Trump may be the single least strategically gifted person to ever hold any public office in the US. His successes in politics are things that he's either stumbled into because even a bull in a china shop could potentially be in the right place at the right time, or that he's been led into by smarter people who are using him to serve their own ends. I've never seen someone who makes as many consistently bad decisions in a row as he does. 

 

The two "smart" people basically leading his 2016 campaign. Roger Stone and Steve Bannon. Most of the others surrounding Trump have been political novices at best.

[@DCGoldPants]

 

 

This is a good line. 

[hail2skins]

Every so often Trump reveals the resentment he has at being president. At one point he said "I'm president because Hillary ran a terrible campaign." And just recently he said "I'm here because of the bad job Obama and Biden did for the prior eight years."

 

Saw an item where Cuban last night told Hannity that Trump wants to lead a campaign, while Biden wants to lead a country.

 

But his ego is the only thing keeping him pursuing reelection, just to show he can. And WHEN Trump gets reelected in November, I still think there's at least a 50-50 shot that he resigns early in his second term and hands it over to Pence.

[Hersh]

32 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

Every so often Trump reveals the resentment he has at being president. At one point he said "I'm president because Hillary ran a terrible campaign." And just recently he said "I'm here because of the bad job Obama and Biden did for the prior eight years."

 

Saw an item where Cuban last night told Hannity that Trump wants to lead a campaign, while Biden wants to lead a country.

 

But his ego is the only thing keeping him pursuing reelection, just to show he can. And WHEN Trump gets reelected in November, I still think there's at least a 50-50 shot that he resigns early in his second term and hands it over to Pence.

 

He's not getting re-elected. Are you voting for him? This seems like one of those things where people take a super long shot in order to say "I told you so!!" 

[Rufus T Firefly]

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

i really do think that Trump may be the single least strategically gifted person to ever hold any public office in the US. His successes in politics are things that he's either stumbled into because even a bull in a china shop could potentially be in the right place at the right time, or that he's been led into by smarter people who are using him to serve their own ends. I've never seen someone who makes as many consistently bad decisions in a row as he does. 

In 2016 he ran against a party trying to hold the WH for three terms (historically a major league uphill battle). He was running against one of the most hated politicians in American history, who also happened to run a laughably terrible campaign. He also had the help of the greatest foreign interference in one of our elections ever, on his behalf, and an FBI director who stuck his thumb on the scale at the last minute to swing the vote to Trump. 

 

And, with all that, he lost the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes and pulled off a fluky Electoral College inside straight to eke out a technical victory. 

 

And then, with a minority victory, and the reality that the voter apathy that got him into office would surely end, that the desire for "change" against the establishment would no longer be in his favor, and that demographic changes were working against him, he didn't have the political instincts a 6th grader would have and realize he needed to build his base of support.  Instead, he doubled down on playing to racist and ignorant tendencies and fought tooth and nail to make sure he didn't win any more voters over.

 

And now, with his re-election hopes sinking like a rock, he responds by actively spitting in the faces of 70% of voters who support BLM or are worried about the virus. 

 

The only things he's ever known to do are lie through his teeth, play the victim and play to overt racists. And yet, people keep talking about him as if he's some political savant and we should all tremble at what master strategy he's cooking up. It's a joke.

[TradeTheBeal!]

45 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

He's not getting re-elected. Are you voting for him? This seems like one of those things where people take a super long shot in order to say "I told you so!!" 

I think he’s doing a “reverse psychology” deal on us so the big poll numbers don’t make us complacent.

 

And I like that.

[hail2skins]

20 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

I think he’s doing a “reverse psychology” deal on us so the big poll numbers don’t make us complacent.

 

And I like that.

No way Beal!  MAGA through 2024, baby, and then write him in for a third term!

 

I predicted him to win in 2016 and was scoffed at by many on here.

 

That said, on election night 2016, I said to give him a chance and see what he could do, hoping he would grow into the job. He has failed miserably on that account. And lost any chance he would've had at my 2020 vote. 

 

I just don't have the faith in this population to vote him out of office (even if I think Trump's chance at winning the popular vote is zero). In the fall Barr and Dunham will come out with some "bombshell" that will make our sheeple population gravitate away from Biden.

[visionary]

 

 

 

[Hersh]

37 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

I think he’s doing a “reverse psychology” deal on us so the big poll numbers don’t make us complacent.

 

And I like that.

Anyone getting complacent deserves 

 

My only concern is rampant voter suppression and I worry that 60 million voters would actually be okay cheating to get Trump re-elected.

[visionary]

 

 

 

[PleaseBlitz]

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

[hail2skins]

What is going to put Trump over the top is the Friday before the election when the 3rd quarter GDP numbers come out.  They should be a lot better than the 2nd quarter GDP numbers, which are going to be horrible.  And logically, you say, well, of course they are going to be significantly better. But enough people will look at that bottom line number and say "look at the economy roaring! MAGA!!"

 

Because that's how stupid this population is. 

[LadySkinsFan]

I don't think so. As much as he wants the economy to improve, it won't because unless governors of all states lock down, we will continue to see huge Covid-19 numbers, the unemployment numbers will continue to remain huge, and nothing gets better.

[TradeTheBeal!]

I’ll take that bet.  Q3 numbers are gonna be abysmal.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Latest averages from 538

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-polling-shows-trumps-electoral-college-advantage-is-slipping/

STATE	BIDEN	TRUMP	MARGIN	LEAN RELATIVE TO NATION
Colorado	54.5%	36.6%	D+17.9	D+8.3
Maine	53.7	38.6	D+15.1	D+5.6
New Mexico	54.4	40.4	D+14.0	D+4.5
Virginia	50.8	39.4	D+11.4	D+1.9
Minnesota	54.3	43.5	D+10.8	D+1.2
Michigan	50.4	39.7	D+10.7	D+1.2
Wisconsin	50.2	40.5	D+9.6	D+0.1
National	50.6	41.1	D+9.5	EVEN
Nevada	48.5	39.7	D+8.8	R+0.7
New Hampshire	50.3	41.7	D+8.6	R+0.9
Pennsylvania	50.5	42.3	D+8.1	R+1.4
Florida	49.1	42.2	D+6.8	R+2.7
Arizona	47.5	42.7	D+4.8	R+4.7
North Carolina	47.3	44.1	D+3.2	R+6.3
Ohio	48.2	45.5	D+2.7	R+6.8
Georgia	47.1	45.7	D+1.4	R+8.1
Iowa	45.9	45.5	D+0.4	R+9.2
Texas	46.5	46.9	R+0.4	R+9.9

 

Biden wins the election if he just holds on to states where he is currently ahead by 8 percentage points or more.

[Barry.Randolphe]

I was just on 538 looking for a current electoral college projection map using the above data....I didn't see anything. I'm a visual person lol