Larry Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 10 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said: Interesting that my wife is pro-Warren (and she is usually more conservative than me) and I'm leaning Independent if Warren is the nominee. Women stick together. It's just because of her gender. (Looks to see if she's nearby.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Four more years..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinss Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 19 hours ago, StillUnknown said: with me Biden's age isn't the issue, its that he clearly isn't as sharp as he used to be Isn't that kind of a distinction without a difference? For starters, it's an unfortunate fact of life that our mental capacity diminishes as we get older, some may be sharper than others but none will be as sharp as they once were. Bernie is another one that I like but just cant get behind for president. If he serves two terms hell be in his late 80's by the time he's done and that's just too old, its twenty years past the time most people are expected to retire due to declining capacity and its ridiculous to think he'll have the ability to adequately perform the tasks associated with the most difficult job in the world. Bernie and joe biden shouldn't be the democratic nominee for the same reason Bill Parcells shouldn't be in consideration to be the Redskins next head coach. For some bizarre reason we have a tendency to look past age more than usual for our presidential nominees but we shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Larry said: Women stick together. It's just because of her gender. (Looks to see if she's nearby.) I'm sure that plays a small part, but she seems a numbers/planner type that Liz would resonate with more than most of the offerings.....the seduction of problem solving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCB Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 It's an unnerving poll for sure, but there have been others that suggest wider margins for each of the 3 Dem frontrunners. Plus, the economic forecast in the three states that put Voldemort over the top in 2016 has dimmed, owing to tariffs and lukewarm employment numbers. And that's not even considering God knows what is to come on the impeachment front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 7 hours ago, Cooked Crack said: Yikes They havent even had a primary yet, this will be an interesting question once the nominee is decided. I'll be curious to see who wins those battle ground state primaries. I'd like to see what this graphic looks like around the time of the election, noticing a couple of these battle ground states have more red then others, ie Wisconsin and North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 The EC gots to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 I didn't want to pollute the Nationals' thread, but I don't mind littering here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozo the kKklown Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 15 hours ago, visionary said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozo the kKklown Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 hours ago, visionary said: So they should run a centrist like Bill Nelson? Florida is a red state now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 I'm so conflicted on the 'match up' polls. primaries and even much of the general election allow people to be too loose and free with their 'support'. you get people voting in primaries for the party they don't even like just to 'sabotage' things. You get people that decide because they like candidate A, and candidates B C and D are against A, that they cannot 'support' B C and D; even though when the general comes around they'll support whichever one made it to the general. the retrospective on the polls for the 2016 was that, by and large, most models were just not up to speed on representing the climate at the time (trump underpolled for whatever reasons you want to highlight, then won...) It's entirely possible the models are, again, not accurately representing the current climate. I'm conflicted because the polls actually show what I see in my community, which is that people who traditionally voted republican would vote for Biden but not Warren or Sanders... but, like I laid out above, I just don't know how much that matters in Nov 2019. It's easy for people to sit down and say something in fall of 2019; it's different to actually cast a vote in fall 2020... And as some of you have pointed out through the various conversations, it's just impossible to know how many "I hate trump, always voted republican, but will vote for <Dem candidate>" would actually do that vs are just saying it to be appropriate for the social setting... I think it's also impossible to determine who the dem primary ends... for the 2016 cycle it ended in there being a big divide. It's entirely possible this one doesn't end that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 I am just sticking with the idea that the Dems win the White house in 2020 if they increase turnout of their own base. I don't think the "voted for Trump in 2016, but maybe I would....." numbers are big enough to sway the election. I think there is a higher chance that some GOP voters just stay home and don't vote period. When you listen to these panels of 2016 Trump voters who claim they could possibly vote for a Democrat, they barely even consider Biden a moderate/centrist/someone they could vote for. That right there tells you all you need to know about where their minds are, and this is November 2019. Should Biden end up the nominee, the treatment he will get by right-wing media will have those "maybe voters" believing Biden is to the left of Bernie Sanders and they will just repeat all the same tropes and nonsense but attach it to Biden the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, BenningRoadSkin said: So they should run a centrist like Bill Nelson? Florida is a red state now. I don't know if it's a red state, leans that way certainly. Be interesting to see if the voting reforms there change anything. But yeah, centrist Nelson loses in Florida and then says that only a centrist can win there. Typical of what the punditry does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, NoCalMike said: I am just sticking with the idea that the Dems win the White house in 2020 if they increase turnout of their own base. right. Problem is the electoral college. Where the increased turnout takes place matters. if the end result is arguing about how California pumped up the total vote count and the EC didn’t reflect the popular vote, then the dems didn’t do what they needed done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 I think it’s better to look at statewide polls vs national polls. Even then, I think there might be some flaw that favors Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 33 minutes ago, tshile said: right. Problem is the electoral college. Where the increased turnout takes place matters. if the end result is arguing about how California pumped up the total vote count and the EC didn’t reflect the popular vote, then the dems didn’t do what they needed done... Well the hope is that whoever the (D) nominee is will campaign in battleground states and make efforts where Hillary didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Hopefully, the farm vote turns against Trump. It doesn't really look like it will, but there's been a lot of grumbling about how screwed farmers feel by Trump's "Trade War." Will Trump's agro-socialism and Republican tribalism be enough to keep them in the fold? Probably, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 29 minutes ago, Burgold said: Hopefully, the farm vote turns against Trump. This is something i haven't been following... So what I know is that: Supposedly these people have been hurt the most by tarrifs But that Trump has also done "aid packages" of some sort to funnel money to those groups to help Generally speaking there's a big overlap between these people and people that think "Someone needs to tell the rest of the world to screw off" That's literally all I know about it. So I have no idea whether they would be against him or for him at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 A year out, here's four scenarios for 2020 elections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 1 hour ago, tshile said: This is something i haven't been following... So what I know is that: Supposedly these people have been hurt the most by tarrifs But that Trump has also done "aid packages" of some sort to funnel money to those groups to help Generally speaking there's a big overlap between these people and people that think "Someone needs to tell the rest of the world to screw off" That's literally all I know about it. So I have no idea whether they would be against him or for him at this point... My understanding is that they are mad at him, but still with him at this point, but the last I really read something serious on this topic was a few months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus T Firefly Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 3 hours ago, NoCalMike said: I am just sticking with the idea that the Dems win the White house in 2020 if they increase turnout of their own base. Not just turnout, but 3rd party protest votes. The share of the electorate that Johnson and Stein got basically tripled from 12 to 16, due to dissatisfaction with the candidates. On the Dem side, a lot of that was due to the centrism and lack of vision displayed by the candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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