The Brexit Thread

[techboy]

46 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Does anyone understand the last 50 tweets And what they mean?

 

Sure.

 

Britain has a parliamentary system of government, which means that the Prime Minister needs a majority to govern. If a PM loses that majority, it often means the government collapses, and they have to have new elections, which allow a new coalition to form a new majority government, though sometimes I think a new majority can be formed without a new election, which seems to have just happened in Italy.

 

In a similar effect to Trump in America, pro-Brexit MPs have backed themselves into a corner where if they seem to be softening on Brexit (which almost everyone agrees is going to be horrible for Britain, to the point where PRO-Brexiters are selling it as an opportunity to display a stiff upper lip Britain style), their constituents, much like Trump supporters, will destroy them.

 

The difference in this case is that some of the Conservative (Tory) majority have decided that they won't stand by and watch a hard Brexit, which will have all kinds of nasty effects including likely restarting the Troubles in Ireland, shortages of food and medicine, etc, so they are joining with many of the Liberal Democrats and Labour Party members to vote in a law that prevents the Government from allowing a No Deal scenario.

 

The PM, Boris Johnson, tried to do an end run around this by getting the Queen, who is normally non-political, to shut down parliament at this critical time, which does indeed seem to have backfired and pissed everyone off.

 

So, the Speaker has allowed a DIFFERENT end run, where the Tory rebels and the minority parties are being allowed to pass a bill in one day, while Pariliament is still in session, that will prevent a hard Brexit. A minister of the government pissed everyone off again by saying the Government might not follow the law if passed.

 

Seeing that they were going to lose on this, the PM announced that any Tory that voted to block the No Deal Brexit would have the whip removed, which means that they would no longer be allowed to stand for election as a member of the party, effectively kicking them out.

 

Lots of Tories, again in a break from Republicans in this country, decided to put country over party in this case and voted the other way anyway, knowing they would be kicked out. In Parliament, the government backers sit on one side, and the opposition sits on the other, so that video tweet with the MPs crossing sides was LITERALLY Boris Johnson losing his majority, as people that knew they were getting kicked out anyway left.

 

So, the government is probably going to collapse, and Boris Johnson says that he's going to call for a new election.

 

The problem is that this requires a vote of Parliament, and they might not let him get that through either until they've passed a law blocking the No Deal Brexit.

 

The last bits are discussion on when a new election can be held.

 

Short version: Boris Johnson overplayed his hand and it appears the whole thing blew up in his face, which I suppose might even be seen as a relief to Tories that didn't want to defy their base on Brexit but also secretly knew that No Deal was a terrible idea.

 

Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk.

3 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

There is a lot going on here but this is the summary:

 

1. The new PM tried to bully through a no-deal Brexit after lying that he’s seeking a deal with the EU.

 

2. Members of his own party threatened that they will rebel and block no-deal Brexit.

 

3. Rather than negotiating, he threatened that any Tory MP that attempts to block a no-deal Brexit will be kicked out of the party.

 

4. A small but sizeable majority of Tory MP’s joined opposition left wing parties and voted for the Commons (lower house) to take control of the legislative agenda. The Prime Minister is usually the one who gets to set the agenda, so this essentially strips his powers. They did this so legislation blocking no-deal Brexit can be passed.

 

5. Every Tory rebel will now be kicked out of the party. This is I think around 21.

 

6. Johnson is going to call a new election in hopes that he has a larger majority (right now he doesn’t have a governing majority) and newly elected MP’s will back his agenda of Brexit with or without a deal by October 31st.

 

Or, you know, this.

[DogofWar1]

1 hour ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Does anyone understand the last 50 tweets And what they mean?

 

But for real shout outs to No Excuses and techboy for helping to make sense of this.  I got lost at the "lost the whip" part.

[DCSaints_fan]

My guess would be this whole "no deal" Brexit was a attempt by Johnson to bluff the EU and get them to cave.   Of course, now that he has been undermined by his own party, this may be impossible.

 

I'd bet on yet another extension come 31 Oct. 

[TheGreatBuzz]

9 hours ago, techboy said:

the government is probably going to collapse

 

Thanks for breaking it down.  The only question I have is this quoted part.  Does this mean like truly collapse as in no government leading to chaos or is it more just a term meaning there will be a mass re-organization?

 

Thanks again.

[The Sisko]

8 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

My guess would be this whole "no deal" Brexit was a attempt by Johnson to bluff the EU and get them to cave.   Of course, now that he has been undermined by his own party, this may be impossible.

 

I'd bet on yet another extension come 31 Oct. 

I certainly hope not. Sometimes you have to let a child burn his hand on the stove for them to finally believe it’s hot. Likewise, I really wish the Chinese would stop ****ing around and do some things that will really schtup Tя☭mp’s base. Yes, I realize either of these almost certainly lead to a global recession. Unfortunately, catastrophe is the only language that ‘Muricuh understands.

Edited September 4, 2019 by The Sisko

[No Excuses]

2 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

Thanks for breaking it down.  The only question I have is this quoted part.  Does this mean like truly collapse as in no government leading to chaos or is it more just a term meaning there will be a mass re-organization?

 

Thanks again.

 

The Conservative party had a governing majority with just one seat as of yesterday. But a Tory MP defected to the Liberal Democrats and several others voted against the government and lost their membership in the party. 

 

So basically, there is no governing majority for Boris Johnson. This is the government “collapsing” due to no majority. So he will call a snap election in hopes of forming a new majority coalition.

 

I doubt the Tory Party wins a new majority, but a lot depends on how Labour and Lib Dems work together. Right now, they will be splitting a huge chunk of the left wing vote. Lib Dems will campaign on Remain and I believe Corbyn previously said that Labour would too if a new election were called.

[techboy]

5 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

Thanks for breaking it down.  The only question I have is this quoted part.  Does this mean like truly collapse as in no government leading to chaos or is it more just a term meaning there will be a mass re-organization?

 

The former majority can't govern, so there's basically a reorganization, yes. Either a new coalition forms, or new elections are held with the idea that this will help a new majority to coalesce.

 

In some countries like italy, this can lead to chaos, but that's not essential, just very Italian (61 governments since the end of WWII). 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Italy

[techboy]

13 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

But for real shout outs to No Excuses and techboy for helping to make sense of this.  I got lost at the "lost the whip" part.

 

They use whip in at least two different senses, so I had to look it up.

 

I've found British politics fascinating since I first caught a session of Prime Minister's question time on CSPAN... grown men heckling the opposition from literal "back benches" (party members sit in order of seniority, with the most prominent in the front... that's why that one picture was funny... the bench is supposed to be filled with members of government and it was empty).

 

There are so many fascinating quirks from hundreds of years of tradition and common law.

 

For example, there's a mace that sits on a table in the middle of the Commons, and no debate can be held if it's not there. So, a few times, an MP has grabbed it and tried to run out to stop debate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceremonial_mace#United_Kingdom

 

Or, the Speaker can break ties, but by long tradition, is supposed to be neutral to the point that he or she leaves whatever party he or she was in, and there are mechanical traditions for how to break a tie vote that prevent bias.

 

The emphasis on tradition is fascinating, because there's no constitution. There's just common law and tradition, and a high court to settle issues, but the Speaker for example has a lot of latitude, which is how the House was able to use a standing order that was never meant for this kind of law to rush the thing through in one day.

 

Another one I like is the literal "lobbying". When MPs vote, they stand in the lobby next to a door representing their vote, and walk through it. 

 

The "whip" is another fascinating concept... MPs are supposed to be free of influence on their vote. So, to get around it, the parties will "whip" by underlining legislation, one to three times. Defying a three line whip and voting differently is cause for members of government to have to resign, or in this case, MPs can be deselected. No influence there...

 

Lots of fun stuff...

[Dan T.]

Here's Tory Phiilip Lee defecting right in front of Boris Johnson...

 

 

 

[TheGreatBuzz]

Question:  Didn't Boris get voted to PM with the support of the conservative party (similar to how our speaker of the house is selected)?  So shouldn't they have had a good idea what he was going to do when they picked him?

[No Excuses]

38 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Question:  Didn't Boris get voted to PM with the support of the conservative party (similar to how our speaker of the house is selected)?  So shouldn't they have had a good idea what he was going to do when they picked him?

 

The party knew and most conservative MP's are supporting him. Something like 10% of the elected MPs essentially quit yesterday. 90% are in support of Boris's policies, even if they agree with him or not.

 

There was really no reason to block Boris for any of them. They tried the center-right approach with Theresa May and it was a failure.

 

Majority of the conservative voters want Brexit and a vocal minority are also fine with No Deal. Nigel Farage, who was formerly UKIP and a primary campaigner for Brexit basically formed a single-issue "Brexit Party" out of thin air that did surprisingly well in the EU elections a few months ago and significantly outperformed the Tory Party. Basically the Tory's risk losing a sizeable chunk of voters to the Brexit Party if they don't back Boris and his hard-right view of Brexit.

 

They are sacrificing a portion of center-right voters to maintain a larger, more-rabidly anti-EU base. Now the question is how those center-right voters, who are either remainers or want a soft-Brexit vote in a new election. The Tory's hold a few seats in Scotland which they are guaranteed to lose at this point since Scotland is very strongly pro-EU. The sliver of center-right that thinks Boris will completely tank the country if given a mandate, might even vote Lib Dem or god-forbid, Labour.

Edited September 4, 2019 by No Excuses

[No Excuses]

Also I second techboy on how fascinating British politics is. Watching the House of Commons during session is AWESOME. Public policy debates with the atmosphere of a raucous bar. Our politics is a total snoozefest in comparison. Imagine if Trump and Pelosi had to square off face-to-face multiple times a year, while each party booed and snickered at each other.

 

A good way to keep up with British and EU politics is a subscription to the Economist btw. They cover EU politics really well and the digital subscription is great, because each issue has an audio version that is really well-made.

Edited September 4, 2019 by No Excuses

[my_friend_goo]

43 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Question:  Didn't Boris get voted to PM with the support of the conservative party (similar to how our speaker of the house is selected)?  So shouldn't they have had a good idea what he was going to do when they picked him?

 

Boris won the leadership contest (series of votes amongst their MPs whittling down by at least 1 candidate at a time until only two remain, then the full party membership vote between those two). Boris was always the front runner and something of the charismatic Brexit poster boy for the party.

 

For all his exuberant proclamations and fist pumping, he declined to mention his intentions to suspend parliament, possibly with the intention of forcing through a no-deal and expelling party members, irrespective of how important they are, who would stand in his way. Unsurprisingly.

 

Whilst being prepared to walk away is part of negotiating 101, when the other side has every reason to believe that they will come out of it the better off substantially if you do, then there's no reason not to call the bluff.

 

In spite of the denial of the brexiteers, a no-deal outcome will cause significant disruption to the UK. Boris and his supporters are clearly being dismissive of the potential extent of disruption and although nobody truly knows what will happen until it does, if it does. This includes downplaying impact reports prepared by experts. But realistically, even the best disaster management plans aren't sustainable for a prolonged period of time and are a massive drain on resources, so it's a matter of how long it takes to fix the mess and the consequences of the disruptive period that leaves people like myself unable to support a complete cutting of ties.

 

But then how does one fix the problem? Overturning the referendum result is potentially very damaging towards those who voted to leave. Leaving without a deal is potentially so damaging to the UK that lifelong conservatives have stood up to their leader in spite of the consequences. But any compromise with the EU is never going to be offer the spectrum of benefits of full membership.

[visionary]

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2019 by visionary

[London Kev]

Some of you guys are probably more knowledgeable regarding British politics than many Brits are. All I've heard in the last few days is "So WTF is a three-line whip then?" and "Why have the all got whips?"

I even heard someone ask "If Boris has lost his majority, does that mean that Corbyn is now Prime Minister".

[PleaseBlitz]

21 hours ago, No Excuses said:

Also I second techboy on how fascinating British politics is. Watching the House of Commons during session is AWESOME. Public policy debates with the atmosphere of a raucous bar. Our politics is a total snoozefest in comparison. Imagine if Trump and Pelosi had to square off face-to-face multiple times a year, while each party booed and snickered at each other.

 

A good way to keep up with British and EU politics is a subscription to the Economist btw. They cover EU politics really well and the digital subscription is great, because each issue has an audio version that is really well-made.

 

Agree.  I just love listening to John Bercow do his thing.

 

 

[FanboyOf91]

Not a good day for Johnson.

[visionary]

 

[FanboyOf91]

Um...

[tshile]

So you mean when they elected a terrible dolt they stopped him?

 

must be nice 

[FanboyOf91]

Long thread on why this won't work:

 

 

[FanboyOf91]

That was quick.

 

Quote

Boris Johnson has signalled to cabinet ministers that the government would have to accept a further three-month delay to Brexit if it is forced on him by the courts.

 

In a private climbdown from his repeated insistence that Britain will leave the European Union on October 31, the prime minister has assured senior colleagues that he will “abide by the law”.

 

The Times understands that Mr Johnson had been warned by several cabinet ministers that their positions would be untenable if he flouted a Supreme Court ruling ordering him to accept an extension. “The prime minister has assured me that we abide by the rule of law,” one said.

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-in-retreat-over-delay-to-brexit-h8xbc5cf2

 

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

[FanboyOf91]

And now Parliament is out for 5 weeks.