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The Brexit Thread


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This is going to work out exactly the way it's supposed to.  Hopefully there isn't too much damage to the UK or global economy in the meantime, but the fact the Brexit vote was non-binding and nobody wants to initiate Article 50 is very telling to me.  Very, very telling.

Edited by Renegade7
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http://labourlist.org/2016/06/liveblog-shadow-cabinet-resignations/

LIVEBLOG: shadow cabinet resignations

Around 10 gone so far, I think.

 

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/747111018720002050

Shadow Justice Secretary Lord Falconer becomes ninth member of Labour shadow cabinet to resign after Hilary Benn sacked by Jeremy Corbyn
12:55 PM

 

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cameron-not-expected-trigger-brexit-article-50-eu-163003943.html

Cameron not expected to trigger Brexit Article 50 at EU summit

 

 

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-racism_uk_576fe161e4b08d2c56396075

Post EU Referendum Racism Documented Online And It’s Really Scary
Edited by visionary
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Stolen from the net, not my words, just something doing the rounds........

 

The more I think on this the more it actually makes a **** load of sense. If Boris does invoke Article 50, his legacy will likely be that of a PM who broke up the UK, destroyed the dream of a united Europe, plunged the country into a recession and deep economic uncertainty for years and played an active role in creating one of the most divided and fractured societies Britain has ever seen.

 

No wonder he was saying there was no rush to invoke Article 50 Friday. He is trying to buy time to figure all this out which hopefully Brussels does not afford him by forcing him to make a decision now and he backtracks. I think they never expected to win the vote and have woken up Friday morning with reality hitting. 'Oh ****! This just got REAL! What do we do now?' (Sure they thought about the outcome of us leaving Europe but you know what I mean.). 

 

I fully understand Cameroon not invoking our departure from Europe. Why should he? He wanted to remain Let one of the 'leave' group take that decision. Or not. Would there be anger and protests if the government decides not to leave? No question. Would it completely undermine democracy? Hell yes. Would it be the right decision to take not just for our Nation but Europe as a whole? NO question in my mind.

 

Maybe this vote was needed to make the elites get off their arse and address the grievances of the general public and fix whats wrong with Britain and the European project as a whole

 

Very interesting and very difficult times ahead. 

 

Hail. 

Edited by Gibbs Hog Heaven
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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-scotland-germany-idUSKCN0ZC0QT?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=57700b3d04d301545cb9fc1a&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Scotland welcome to join EU, Merkel ally says

 

An independent Scotland would be welcome to join the European Union, a senior German lawmaker and ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel has said after Britain's vote to leave the bloc.

 

"The EU will still consist of 28 member states, as I expect a new independence referendum in Scotland, which will then be successful," said Gunther Krichbaum, a member of Merkel's conservatives and chairman of the European affairs committee in parliament.

 

"We should respond quickly to an application for admission from the EU-friendly country," he told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper.

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/scotland-veto-brexit-160626133354122.html

Scottish leader threatens to veto Brexit

 

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says her government may use legal means to block Britain's exit from the EU

 

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has vowed to protect Scotland against the "devastating" fallout of Brexit and hinted her government may use legal means to try to block Britain's departure from the EU.

 

Sturgeon said the United Kingdom that Scotland voted to remain a part of in a 2014 independence referendum "does not exist any more" after Thursday's referendum to leave the EU.

 

"What's going to happen with the UK is that there are going to be deeply damaging and painful consequences... I want to try and protect Scotland from that," Sturgeon told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show on Sunday.

 

In a round of broadcast interviews, she also said it was possible that the Scottish parliament may have to give its consent to laws to extricate Britain from the EU.

Edited by visionary
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Question(s) from an ignorant American, here.

What's a "shadow cabinet"? And what's Article 50?

 

 

The 'Shadow Cabinet', basically, is the 'other' Cabinet. (21 of the most senior collection of Government Ministers who make all the decisions ..... The Prime Minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary etc etc.). It's made up of the most senior members of the majority opposition party who would move into those positions were they in Government (Shadow Ministers), who then pull apart their direct opponents policy's and challenge new ones on the relevant issues to the position. 

 

Article 50 of the 'Treaty of Lisbon' ( which basically forms the EU's constitution and has to be ratified by all 28 member states), set's out how a Country can leave the EU of it's own volition and the process to be taken. Until that's invoked, no member state can begin that process. 

 

Hail. 

 

*Edit* Presume you're asking on the Shadow Cabinet as it's been decimated by resignations today in a massive vote of no confidence for the Labour leader who's now on REAL precarious ground. Can't see him riding this one out with so many senior figures turning against him. 

Edited by Gibbs Hog Heaven
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I know article 50 is what they invoke to leave the EU. I'm wondering about shadow cabinet also.

The shadow cabinet is the opposition party having senior leaders who mirror the party in government senior leaders. If it existed in the USA the Republicans would have individual people designated opposite the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense. Etc and they would be the primary opposition party spokespeople on those matters. It's different here of course in that the folks heading major departments here are not elected to government but appointed.

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Very interesting and very difficult times ahead. 

 

Hail. [/size]

I think it will get very interesting, personally that's why as a remain supporter I am still very 'relaxed' about the situation at present. These are unprecedented times, it's won't be the cut and dry situation some think.

The rules might be there but they were never intended for use. Implementing them becomes totally unworkable in current form.

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http://www.dailysabah.com/europe/2016/06/26/juncker-should-resign-over-brexit-says-czech-foreign-minister

Juncker should resign over Brexit says Czech foreign minister

 

The Czech foreign minister on Sunday accused Jean-Claude Juncker of failing to try to stop Britain's departure from the bloc, suggesting the European Commission chief should quit.

 

"Right now I can't see the European Commission chairman as the right man for the job," Lubomir Zaoralek said in a debate on public Czech Television.

 

"I don't want to call on anyone (to quit), but... someone in the EU maybe should contemplate quitting, because (Brexit) is a responsibility someone should have assumed," he added.

 

Zaoralek echoed Juncker in saying Britain should now act fast to leave the EU, but he accused the Luxembourger of inactivity ahead of the referendum held Thursday.

 

 

https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/747123800463056896

I am ashamed and sad this is how British MPs are speaking.

Cl5RISrWAAANuDb.jpg

Edited by visionary
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*Edit* Presume you're asking on the Shadow Cabinet as it's been decimated by resignations today in a massive vote of no confidence for the Labour leader who's now on REAL precarious ground. Can't see him riding this one out with so many senior figures turning against him.

 

 

Corbin will get re-elected by the "Cult of Corbyn"  (The Cult of Colt was nothing compared to these people) who dominate the membership of the Labour Party unfortunately.  Anybody whose politics are left of centre has no effective political party representing them anymore.

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....  Anybody whose politics are left of centre has no effective political party representing them anymore.

 

Aint that a sad fact. As much as Corbyn try's to claim he's traditionally otherwise. 

 

Someone is compiling an album of screenshots of stories of...unsavory responses to the vote.

 

A stark reminder of what lurks beneath, and offers a cautionary tail for those of us across the pond.

 

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10101369198638985&type=3

 

 

Disgraceful. More and more people here  really makes you ashamed to have 'British Citizen' on your passport. 

 

Hail. 

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https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/747131986783903749  Nicola Sturgeon

PM & Chancellor who proposed EUref are in hiding, those who campaigned for leave have no plan and the opposition is imploding. Disgraceful.
2:18 PM

 

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/747138238855450624

According to @bbclaurak as per News channel, Boris Johnson intends to run on a "unity ticket" for Tory leadership with Gove's backing.
2:43 PM

 

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/747115980074160128

Theresa May canvassing support among colleagues, expect her to announce Bid for PM in next few days
1:15 PM
Edited by visionary
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Have we worked the 'racist isolationist nativist idiots' out of our system yet?

Someone is compiling an album of screenshots of stories of...unsavory responses to the vote.  Some NSFW language.

 

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10101369198638985&type=3

 

Old England is coming out of the shadows again.

Stiff Little Fingers wrote this anti-racist song about an all too common English mentality back in '79 ... a mentality that clearly still exists. NSFW

Edited by Corcaigh
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I am typically sympathetic to populist ideas. Sometimes the deck is so stacked from the beginning, that's its not a fair chance for many, if not most. But this isn't one of those times.

Isn't it? What do you think the masses are fussing about?

If you are going to vote for something, you have the burden to educate yourself or at least have the decency to admit your ignorance and abstain.

Well I had no say in this vote, but I do admit my ignorance. I'm trying to educate myself. Hopefully you can help.

You have heavily EU subsidized parts of the UK voting to leave EU for supposedly economic reasons and then turn around and say "Oh crap, can we make sure we get that same amount from UK now that we've kicked EU to the curb?"

And you keep saying that EU government is Kafkaesque, but complexity alone is not enough to declare it Kafkaesque.

You're right to say it is not mere complexity that makes something Kafkaesque, although bewildering complexity is part of it, it also involves themes of alienation, powerlessness, and absurdity.

Is that not an apt description of, for example, the plight of the English fishermen in the following video?

https://youtu.be/n_6rb4wWbwE

It's federalism made up of 28 distinct sovereign nations with history dating back hundreds of years.

Is the EU a confederation, a federation, or sui generis?

Of course it's going to be complicated. But the system essentially ensures that EU only acts when all 28 member states are basically in agreement (In 2006, UK voted for 84 of 86 EU legislation and abstained from 2. It's like the UN security council. Nothing gets done if the powers that be object).

It's not my understanding that the EU governs by consensus. Some laws require consensus, but others only require a simple majority. (I've seen the claim that the important laws require a consensus, though no description of what "important" might mean in that sentence).

I'm also not sure why you chose 1996 as an example. I saw a study that determined that Britain was on the losing side of EU votes more than any other country (12% of the time) from 2009-2015. Is that so? If it is, how does that square with the notion that "the system essentially ensures that EU only acts when all 28 member states are basically in agreement"?

If someone unfamiliar with US government kept calling it Kafkaesque, that would be wrong too.

Depends who you ask. For example, an American small businessman filing his taxes might reasonably describe the experience as absurd, bewildering, alienating, and needlessly complicated.

As for the 7 main bodies

1. The Council of the EU (legislature).: Each member country gets one minister per policy area. How the member country selects the minister is up to them. The concept is that of equal representation among the members regardless of population. Remind you of any legislative body in the US?

2. The European Parliament (legislature).: Each member country gets proportional seats based on population. Members of the parliament are elected by direct vote. Many compare it to the House of Representatives in US federalism. For good reason.

3. The European Council (executive).: Made up of heads of state from each member country. Because Europe doesn't want a single executive in charge of the whole union. It's different than US, but does that make it Kafkaesque?

4. The European Commission (executive).: I discussed this in another post, but essentially consider it a type of Cabinet with Commission president acting like the chief of staff.

5. The Court of Justice of the European Union (judiciary).: Each country sends a Judge chosen by their method. Only requirement is that the judge must have legal background and must be deemed completely independent. What's the problem here?

6. The European Central Bank (central bank).: It's the European federal reserve.

7. European Court of Auditors: This is EU's OMB. it's role is primary reporting and tabulating.

1. I take it you're comparing the Council of the EU to the US Senate, although I think it's a bit of a false analogy. US Senators are directly elected, and it's my understanding that these ministers are not.

Despite my best efforts to find out, I still don't know how the ministers are selected. You say that is up to the member countries, but that really doesn't answer my question specifically.

2. I've no complaints about how this branch of the EU government is elected. It's the one branch of the EU that seems democratic to me.

The comparison to the US House of Representatives is not perfect though, as the European Parliament is not as powerful. For example, they do not have the ability to initiate legislation.

4. This is the one that really makes my head spin. Here's my understanding of the process of selecting the European Commission :

a. European Council proposes a President "taking account" of popular elections, whatever that means.

b. European Parliament votes yes or no on that proposal, simple majority rules.

c. The President then chooses the other 27 members of the Commission based on the nominations from the Council.

d. The Parliament then gets to vote yes or no to the entire group of 28, again simple majority rule.

I guess you could say that this is a somewhat democratic process since the popular vote is "taken into account" by the Council and the Parliament has the chance to vote against the nomination, although it seems to me like a far cry from a truly democratic process, since neither the Parliament nor the people get any real say in the nomination of the President or selection of the 28.

Also I don't think calling the Commission "a type of Cabinet" is exactly right. It seems that this branch has the most power. They are the only body with the power of legislative initiative (they make the laws) and enforcement. Some commentators have said that the Commission might be more accurately referred to as "the European Government."

Anyway I fully admit I don't know much about EU government (as I've said repeatedly), so I welcome any corrections if you see something I've misunderstood.

Edited by s0crates
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/world/europe/among-young-britons-fear-and-despair-over-vote-to-leave-eu.html?smid=tw-nytimesworld&smtyp=cur

Among Young Britons, Fear and Despair Over Vote to Leave E.U.

 

As the bands played on at the Glastonbury music festival in Somerset, England, Lewis Phillips and his friends drowned their sorrows in song and alcohol.

 

“We’re the ones who’ve got to live with it for a long time, but a group of pensioners have managed to make a decision for us,” Mr. Phillips, 27, said on Friday of Britain’s decision to withdraw from the European Union. He said he was now “terrified” about the country’s economic prospects.

 

Louise Driscoll, a 21-year-old barista in London, spent most of the day crying. “I had a bad feeling in my gut,” she said of Britain’s referendum on Europe. “What do we do now? I’m very scared.” Her parents both voted to leave the bloc, she said, and “will probably be gloating.”

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/12103602/America-to-investigate-Russian-meddling-in-EU.html

Russia accused of clandestine funding of European parties as US conducts major review of Vladimir Putin's strategy

 

Exclusive: UK warns of "new Cold War" as Kremlin seeks to divide and rule in Europe

 

 

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/747164040351322112

BREAKING: UK's Shadow Leader of the House of Commons Chris Bryant resigns, says Labour party needs someone new to unite and lead
4:26 PM

 

MORE: Bryant's resignation marks 12th resignation or firing from UK's shadow cabinet in less than 24hrs amid calls for Labour leader to quit
4:31 PM

 

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/747165665912627201

Cl53SX-WgAAG1eT.jpg

Edited by visionary
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Aint that a sad fact. As much as Corbyn try's to claim he's traditionally otherwise. 

 

 

 

Disgraceful. More and more people here  really makes you ashamed to have 'British Citizen' on your passport. 

 

Hail. 

Come over here we will grant you french citizenship, not sure it will help you though :P

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nigel-farage-brexit-recession-uk-eu-referendum-latest-ukip-latest-a7103936.html

Nigel Farage says the UK is heading for recession regardless of Brexit

 

Nigel Farage has said Britain is progressing towards a “mild” recession, but insisted it is not because the UK voted to leave the European Union.

 

In the wake of the shock EU referendum results, hundreds of billions were wiped off the value of global stocks and the pound plunged to its lowest level against the dollar in more than 30 years.

 

But the Ukip leader told the Sunday Telegraph: “There’s nothing new here.

 

“I think we are going into a mild recession anyway, completely regardless of Brexit.

 

“Our growth forecasts are down. Our public sector borrowing is still not under control at all, and everyone forgets that sterling is in a bear market, declining since July 2014.”

 

Mr Farage gave a timescale of two years before the UK might benefit from the “increased global opportunities” he claimed Brexit would bring.

 

The Ukip leader had conceded defeat minutes after the polls closed on Thursday, before it became apparent the UK had voted to leave the EU as results came in during the early hours of the morning.

farage-recession%20getty.jpg

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/747170877700190209

Corbyn statement-he says he won't 'betray the trust' of those who elected him and he will stand again as a candidate if others challenge him
4:53 PM

 

 

https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/747171751021404160

Cl58vayWgAAgYP5.jpg

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/747167752142602240

Sources confirm Michael Gove will co-chair Boris Johnson's campaign along with N Ireland Minister, Ben Wallace, who was a Remainer
4:40 PM

Edited by visionary
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Isn't it? What do you think the masses are fussing about?

 

I think the masses are unfairly blaming the EU for situations that are not caused by the EU, merely responsible for managing such as globalization, refugees, etc.

 

 

Well I had no say in this vote, but I do admit my ignorance. I'm trying to educate myself. Hopefully you can help.

 

Just to clarify, I was referring to the UK voters who voted to leave and then turned around and said "wait, what did we just do again?".  Based on your posting history, ignorance is a not a word I would associate with you.

 

 

You're right to say it is not mere complexity that makes something Kafkaesque, although bewildering complexity is part of it, it also involves themes of alienation, powerlessness, and absurdity.

Is that not an apt description of, for example, the plight of the English fishermen in the following video?

 

I think the absurdity part is where the argument falls apart for me.  It's not hard to find similar plight replaying itself over and over as countries enter into more FTAs.  On a macro scale, FTAs make sense.  Trade partners give and take to maximize profitability and efficiency.  I'm sure UK made concessions and received trade-offs both within the context of common fishery and in the context of total trading within EU.  They were surely the beneficiary of having London be the hub of financial sector.

 

The big problem (that US must also grapple with) is how to deal with the sectors who lose out in FTAs.  You could specifically provision for them in the agreements itself (e.g. - the EU provision paying fishermen to get out of the business) or the trade partner could deal with it (e.g. - UK could set up a compensation program for those hurt by the common fishery, banking on additional tax revenue due to benefits in other sectors to fund them).  So many countries have signed FTA deals that benefit the wealthy without sufficiently providing for the common workers whose industries get displaced.  Thus leading to anger of the electorate.  But does that blame lie with EU or UK?  Frankly, UK will still have to negotiate global trade agreements or they will get left behind.  The horses have left the barn.  Protectionist economic policies of the late 19th and early 20th century are not coming back.  I think the efforts are better focused on addressing the disparate effect of globalization within individual countries rather than trying to stuff globalization back in the bottle.

 

Not for nothing, UK accounts for 11.5% of the gross tonnage of fish in EU.  http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_5.3.9.html

 

They imported 700K tonnes and exported 500K tonnes in 2011.  2 of the top 3 importers were Iceland and China, who are not EU members, so it's not as if the common fishery policy is allowing other EU members to take fish that should have been caught by UK and then selling it back to UK.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-17536764

 

 

Is the EU a confederation, a federation, or sui generis?

 

I guess it's sui generis, but probably closer to a confederation than a federation?  Certain seems to be grappling with lot of the same federalism issues that the founding fathers dealt with when forming the articles of confederation and the constitution.

 

 

It's not my understanding that the EU governs by consensus. Some laws require consensus, but others only require a simple majority. (I've seen the claim that the important laws require a consensus, though no description of what "important" might mean in that sentence).

I'm also not sure why you chose 1996 as an example. I saw a study that determined that Britain was on the losing side of EU votes more than any other country (12% of the time) from 2009-2015. Is that so? If it is, how does that square with the notion that "the system essentially ensures that EU only acts when all 28 member states are basically in agreement"?

 

I cited 2006 because that was the stats I had on hand.  The comprehensive stat is that since 1999, 2,466 times for and 56 times against.  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-facts-brexit-immigration-trade-economy-fishing-leave-remain-what-will-happen-a7095046.html  (See item 8)

 

So that would be 97.7%.  Even without factoring in all the backroom brokering that would happen in any legislative process, that is a remarkably high rate of supporting passed legislation. 

 

I'm not sure what requires consensus and what requires majority either.  But certainly, it is not as if UK has been dragged to unwanted laws by the EU.  Also, they have minority blocking where if the opposition represents 35% of the EU population, than the legislation is blocked.  Simple majority doesn't rule. 

 

 

Depends who you ask. For example, an American small businessman filing his taxes might reasonably describe the experience as absurd, bewildering, alienating, and needlessly complicated.

 

Tax laws may be bewildering, alienating, and needlessly complicated, but they are typically not absurd.  Could the tax code be cleaned up and simplified?  Sure.  Should the tax code deal less with special interests?  Absolutely.  But Kafkaesque?  I have a question.  Do you consider the US government Kafkaesque too?  Would you advocate your state leaving the union? 

 

 

1. I take it you're comparing the Council of the EU to the US Senate, although I think it's a bit of a false analogy. US Senators are directly elected, and it's my understanding that these ministers are not.

Despite my best efforts to find out, I still don't know how the ministers are selected. You say that is up to the member countries, but that really doesn't answer my question specifically.

2. I've no complaints about how this branch of the EU government is elected. It's the one branch of the EU that seems democratic to me.

The comparison to the US House of Representatives is not perfect though, as the European Parliament is not as powerful. For example, they do not have the ability to initiate legislation.

4. This is the one that really makes my head spin. Here's my understanding of the process of selecting the European Commission :

a. European Council proposes a President "taking account" of popular elections, whatever that means.

b. European Parliament votes yes or no on that proposal, simple majority rules.

c. The President then chooses the other 27 members of the Commission based on the nominations from the Council.

d. The Parliament then gets to vote yes or no to the entire group of 28, again simple majority rule.

I guess you could say that this is a somewhat democratic process since the popular vote is "taken into account" by the Council and the Parliament has the chance to vote against the nomination, although it seems to me like a far cry from a truly democratic process, since neither the Parliament nor the people get any real say in the nomination of the President or selection of the 28.

Also I don't think calling the Commission "a type of Cabinet" is exactly right. It seems that this branch has the most power. They are the only body with the power of legislative initiative (they make the laws) and enforcement. Some commentators have said that the Commission might be more accurately referred to as "the European Government."

 

EU government has a distinctly parliamentary flavor to it, no question about that.  But is that enough to make it undemocratic?  At the end of the day, not a single part of the EU government is not answerable to the democratic process.  Didn't like your council rep?  Make sure your country's government hears about it during the next vote. 

 

As for the cabinet comparison, I don't think the people truly appreciate how much of the government is implemented by rulemaking by the various agencies and how much deference they are accorded in court.  There is a reason why the two parties fight each other to the death every 4 years when Congress remains deadlocked year after year.  The office of the presidency, with its control of the agencies of the federal government, has tremendous power to implement the agendas of the executive.  Is the EU commission powerful?  Absolutely.  But, I made the comparison, not because I believe the EU commission is not powerful, but because I believe the US cabinet is commensurately so.  At least EU commission can be removed by a legislative body.

 

I have a more fundamental question?  Do you believe the parliamentary selection of a prime minister is undemocratic?  Do you believe the US government to be undemocratic?  None of these are Athenian direct democracy, but I believe they are sufficiently accountable to the will of the people and therefore democratic.  But, perhaps, you disagree.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe – and always will be 

 

BORIS JOHNSON

 

 

https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/747178171003437056

Johnson wants single market access, EU freedom of movement for Brits - but controls for non-Brits coming to UK.

5:22 PM

 

 

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/747190787578929152

British pound falls 1.7% to 1.34 against the U.S. dollar in early trading
6:12 PM
Edited by visionary
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