JamesMadisonSkins Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 I went back and looked at my league's first two years of auction and how money was spent and they're pretty identical between years. For example the #8 RB went for $32 in 2011 and $33 in 2012. It's pretty much down like that all over. Anyway, it's a keeper, and my two keepers are Adrian Peterson for $29 and Alfred Morris for $20. The cap is $220, and I calculated how much "value added" there is league-wide by keeping players and came up with a multiplier of 1.07, which i use to multiply the avg. spent on each slotted position between 2011 and 2012. So Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy are the top 2 RBs not being kept. It's a Yahoo draft, and since everyone will, by default, have the Yahoo values in front of them when they are drafting, I assumed it would stick closely to that. So McCoy is the 7th and Rice 8th RB. Based on league history, and calculating for our multiplier, McCoy would cost $37 and Rice $35. I created this hypothetical team with the specific values of each player based on their position. While I don't expect things to go exactly as planned ... I could very well have this team. Would anyone beat me? QB: Robert Griffin III ($12), Andy Dalton ($1) RB: Adrian Peterson ($29-K), Alfred Morris ($20-K), Ray Rice ($35), LeSean McCoy ($37), Eddie Lacy ($9), Giovanni Bernard ($1) WR: Dez Bryant ($44), Danny Amendola ($22), TY Hilton ($4) TE: Jermichael Finley ($2), Fred Davis ($1) DEF: HOU K: Matt Bryant QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, FL, FL, TE, K, DEF I would start AP, Morris, McCoy, Rice, Bryant and Amendola every week. My bench would be a bit weak, but I would have huge potential (especially for future keeper considerations) with Bernard, Lacy and Hilton. Would be thin at WR, but think my RB depth would make up for it ... and I could always play waivers to my advantage as the season progresses, or trade RB depth for WR down the line. It might be safer to go 5 RB/4 WR as opposed to 6 RB/3 WR, I could just swap out Bernard for, say, Chris Givens for $1 I just can't pass up the idea of McCoy/Rice/AP/Morris/Dez/Amendola in a PPR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMURedskins Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 I am in a 4 year dynasty league, year 2. We do a rookie/free agent draft years 2-4. I was offered three 3rd round picks and a 4th for my first round pick, pick 6. I don't think that I should do it because I think this years draft is top heavy and I know I will get a quality player at 6. Plus I don't have a lot of players I want to cut. What does everyone think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 I am in a 4 year dynasty league, year 2. We do a rookie/free agent draft years 2-4. I was offered three 3rd round picks and a 4th for my first round pick, pick 6. I don't think that I should do it because I think this years draft is top heavy and I know I will get a quality player at 6. Plus I don't have a lot of players I want to cut. What does everyone think? What do I think? DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKES Not but seriously, it is tough to tell without knowing your roster. In a dynasty league, if you can snag a top-end talent, I would stay where you are. It's hard to get legit long-term studs in the 3rd-4th round range. You could get DeAndre Hopkins or Giovanni Bernard at 6, I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chew Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 guys, get Drew Brees if he's there. Screw Rodgers, Ryan, and Peyton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Personally, I think Matthew Stafford is going to kill it for people this year. The dude threw over 725 passes last year, with a lot of them coming just short of the end zone. That was the only difference between 2011 and 2012 (41 vs 20 td's). And now, he's got Reggie Bush to throw to. He's currently going in the middle of the 6th round in a lot of ESPN 10 team leagues. That's nuts, to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMURedskins Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 What do I think? DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKES Not but seriously, it is tough to tell without knowing your roster. In a dynasty league, if you can snag a top-end talent, I would stay where you are. It's hard to get legit long-term studs in the 3rd-4th round range. You could get DeAndre Hopkins or Giovanni Bernard at 6, I would imagine. That was what I was thinking. Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory, Bell, Ball, Bernard, Austin, Hopkins, Patterson and Lacy are definitely going in the 1st. Go Dukes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyZeb Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Need some keeper help. I'm picking 8th in a 12-team dynasty league. We're switching to PPR, which I have no experience with. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Def Can keep 3 players. Here are the options I've narrowed down to and what they would cost: Jamaal Charles, RB - 1st round (8th pick) Robert Griffin, III, QB - 7th round C.J. Spiller, RB - 8th round Matthew Stafford, QB - 9th round Randall Cobb, WR - 10th round I'm sold on Spiller, think it's great value. Considering going with Charles and Cobb for the others. Charles at 1.8 isn't too bad and I think with Spiller I'd have a solid set of PPR running backs (barring injury). Cobb in the 10th also seems like great value, and I'm assuming position players are more valuable than QB's in a PPR. Hate to not keep RGIII but might still have a chance to pick him outright. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Spiller and Cobb are automatic keepers...and you can't go wrong with keeping either RGIII or Stafford, since they are both great value for the pick your forfeit to keep them. I doubt Charles will be there at 8 if you gave him up..so it might make sense to keep him too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 In a 12 team league, you could potentially have what many experts consider to be the #3 and #4 PPR RBs in Charles and Spiller. Cobb is also a Top-10 WR in PPR formats. I say Charles, Spiller Cobb. Not sure who would be there in the 2nd, but if you have a crack at a good PPR RB like Sproles or Bush, take them there. Address QB later on, as long as you still get one of the top 10 guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Y'all be careful with AlMo. I'm not so sure Helu doesn't steal a lot of carries from him this year if he stays healthy. Typical Shanahan thing to do, get you trusting a fantasy RB and then screwing you over. Not saying Morris won't be good, just not a top tier fantasy back that some people will be drafting him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfitzo53 Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 In a 12 team league, you could potentially have what many experts consider to be the #3 and #4 PPR RBs in Charles and Spiller. Cobb is also a Top-10 WR in PPR formats. I say Charles, Spiller Cobb. Not sure who would be there in the 2nd, but if you have a crack at a good PPR RB like Sproles or Bush, take them there. Address QB later on, as long as you still get one of the top 10 guys. I believe this the correct answer. In a 12-team league there are enough quality QBs to go around. There is no replacement for starting your team with TWO first-round RBs. In a keeper league Jamaal Charles has to be in the top 5 guys left, maybe even top 3. He's fine value at pick 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyZeb Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Thanks guys, feeling more confident in my keeper picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Thanks guys, feeling more confident in my keeper picks. Yeah, if you can come away from the pre-draft with Charles, Spiller, and Cobb and still have picks in Rounds 2-7, I think your team is going to be pretty competitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakkaWakka Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Y'all be careful with AlMo. I'm not so sure Helu doesn't steal a lot of carries from him this year if he stays healthy. Typical Shanahan thing to do, get you trusting a fantasy RB and then screwing you over. Not saying Morris won't be good, just not a top tier fantasy back that some people will be drafting him. As a fan, I'd be OK with this. No reason to beat Butler to death and run him into the ground. I just don't see it happening. Butler is head and shoulders better than Helu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Who will have the best season among: Chris Johnson and LeSean McCoy Lamar Miller and Reggie Bush Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy Trying to figure out who to target in my auction. I thought I had settled on McCoy/Miller to be my RB3/RB4, but something about CJ2K keeps drawing me back in! Actually, a better way to put it: I have $50 to spend. Would you rather have in a PPR: Alfred Morris and Randall Cobb Dez Bryant and Chris Johnson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrypticVillain Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 I'll go... Johnson, because there is nobody eles Miller, because I think the Dolphins will run the ball more than Detroit Rice, No Boldin, no Pitta, no Dickson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Bay Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 What do folks think are some dark horses to look out for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 QB: -RGIII (healthy) will perform ahead of his ADP/Value ... -Matthew Stafford ... had huge numbers last year except TDs ... that will change RB: -Lamar Miller ... team loves him, perfect one-cut back for their system. Think Alfred Morris, with a bit more speed -Reggie Bush ... might not hit 1k rushing, but should have 70-90 catches, 600-800 yards in the air. PPR Stud -Giovanni Bernard ... going for $1 in auctions and late in drafts ... could be the Bengals starter by 2nd half -LeSean McCoy ... think he rebounds ... currently drafted as 6-8th RB, could see him finishing top 5 WR: -Dwayne Bowe ... think he puts up huge numbers in KC with (finally) a legit QB -Dez Bryant ... not sure he's a dark horse ... but if you extrapolate his final 8 games of 2012 over an entire season, he has 100 receptions, 1,900 yards and 20 TDs. Could challenge Megatron this year for #1 WR -Randall Cobb ... think he'll emerge as a PPR stud .. 100 catches, 1,200 yards, 10 TDs -Torrey Smith ... I think he emerges as the go-to for Flacco and surpasses 1k yards and gets near 10 TDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I'll go... Johnson, because there is nobody eles Miller, because I think the Dolphins will run the ball more than Detroit Rice, No Boldin, no Pitta, no Dickson. I think I'm going to go ahead and keep Morris for $20 and AP (duh) for $29. I am going to target and spend between $35-45 each for LeSean McCoy and Dez Bryant. I'm then going to try to get Randall Cobb as my WR2 for around $26-32, Lamar Miller as my RB4 for about $14-18 ... Eddie Lacy as my RB5 for keeper potential for $8-10 ... and hope to land RGIII for no more than $12 (might be tough in a Skin fan laden league). If I can pull that, I can draft two TEs for $1-2 ... hopefully Jermichael Finley and Fred Davis ... advice being that if you can't get Jimmy Graham or Gronk, you're better off spending very little at TE and going for two upside guys. Fill out my bench with Justin Blackmon, who after his 4-game suspension, could be a Top 20 caliber WR ... and Chris Givens, a $1-2 guy who could break out. On a weekly basis, my starting roster would be: QB: RGIII RB: Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy WR: Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb Flex: Alfred Morris, Lamar Miller TE: Jermichael Finley Givens, Lacy, Blackmon and Sleep Davis off the bench ... plus someone like Dalton or E. Manning for $4-5 as decent replacement for RGIII. I really think McCoy is going to return to glory this year. That was brought to light by last night's game. He "only" had 48 yards, 1 TD, 3 rec. and 18 yards ... but that's still 12.8 points ... and I think many would argue that would be a "bad game" for him. So his potential really is sky high this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybrant Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Welp, just finished up my first draft of the season. This is a new league with some friends. Fun, no money involved league. My big draft is in two weeks and I'm also in my first ES league. I'm pretty hyped to get this thing started. Just wanted to see what you guys think of my first draft of the season. I picked 5th btw. 10 team/standard scoring: QB - Robert Griffin IIIRB - Doug Martin RB - Steven JacksonWR - Julio Jones WR - Anquan Boldin TE - Jared Cook Flex - Reggie Bush D/ST - Rams K - Kai Forbath Bench: Lamar Miller Ahmad Bradshaw Giovani Bernard Kenny Britt Michael Floyd Fred Davis Sam Bradford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattFancy Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Had my first draft of the year today, Picked 10th in a 12-team .5 PPR 1. CJ Spiller 2. Trent Richardson 3. Vincent Jackson 4. Dwayne Bowe 5. Antoino Brown 6. RG3 7. Shane Vereen 8. TY Hilton 9. Eddie Lacy 10. DeAngelo Williams 11, Jordan Cameron 12. Coby Fleener 13. Ryan Broyles 14. Ryan Tannehill 15. Kenbrell Thompkins 16. Randy Bullock 17. Rams D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheREALJBird Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 My draft is in a week. Paid league with my friends, 12 teams and I lucked out to draw the #1 pick. AP at #1 is obvious, still mulling over my strategy after that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Keepers. We get up to 3 in my league. 1/2 PPR. I have McCoy with my 4th, and Julio with my 6th. Options for my #3 are: Bryce Brown = 15th Colin K = 15th DeMarco = 10th David Wilson = 8th Garcon = 5th I'm thinking Wilson or Colin K. The value for DeMarco is really good, but their Oline sucks, and losing Vickers hurts him a lot I think, and I just don't trust him. Wilson might be in a timeshare with no 3rd downs, but he looks good, and I think he's the guy going forward. Colin K could be a monster, but the wr corps is just so banged up... Love Garcon of course and looking for him to have a huge year, but not much value there. And Bryce just a handcuff. thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattFancy Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Think I'd take Kaepernick just because there is no better value. Murray is close, but a 15th for Kapernick is just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfitzo53 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 How many teams are in the league? If it's a 10-teamer I would lean towards one of the RBs. Unless you really believe Murray is going to tank this year I think he's a better value than Wilson or Kaep. Even though it only takes a 15th round pick, he's just so replaceable this year. If it's a 12-teamer I can understand the argument for Kaepernick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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