Why Indy could go with The LUCKy Horseshoe Or the Tres

[KDawg]

Let me start by saying this is not a RG3 vs. Luck thread in compairson for their skills. Moreso, it's a reason why the Colts could conceivably change their mind on who to choose with the number one pick. Let me further preface this (I don't know why I even say this stuff, considering people will still reply without having read the entire thread) by saying that I do believe that RG3 is going to go to us. But, I have my reservations that it's as done of a deal as some believe it to be.

Both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin Tres are prized quarterbacks, and quite frankly, Indy or DC complaining about landing either one is crazy. Either guy can completely change a franchise, and again, for the record, I think RG3 fits what we want better than Luck does, but Luck is a technician and I truly believe he can run any system and be successful.

Now, why would Indy go with RG3? Well, first off, their offensive coordinator is Bruce Arians, the former Steelers OC. According to this link, Bruce Arians isn't a fan of the short game. Which means he digs the long ball. Robert Griffin III, as we should all know by now, is one of the most polished deep ball passers in the NCAA. That aspect of Arians offense is a perfect match for Griffin.

This article suggests that Bruce Arians has an explosive, up-tempo style of offense that he runs. The word explosive scares me a bit in regards to RG3. Ben Roethlisberger is anything but explosive, but he's pretty elusive. As is Griffin. The benefit Griffin adds to the Arians scheme over Roethlisberger is pretty simple. The ability for Griffin to scramble makes defenses account for him, which opens the RB rush game and passing lanes. That quite frankly turns a pedestrian offense under Roethlisberger into an explosive offense under RG3. Let's also keep in mind that the Colts are playing on field turf, which will only make Griffin's 4.41 speed that much more difficult for opposing defenses to handle.

Now, let's talk about why they'd want Luck. First off, his name is Luck and the Colts have a horseshoe on their helmet. Does destiny toll any more than that?

Next, Bruce Arians has worked with quite a few QBs in his career. From 1998-2000, Bruce Arians was the Colts QB coach, where he worked with Peyton Manning. Obviously, in Pittsburgh, he worked with Ben Roethlisberger. Which of the two quarterback prospects plays more like Manning and Roethlisberger? (Key note is: plays more like). The answer is Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck has very good deep ball accuracy and tremendous pocket presence. He moves around the pocket quite well and can evade tacklers.

Roethlisberger is 6'5", 241 lbs. Luck is 6'4", 235 lbs. They are extremely similar in build. Luck is a more gifted athlete, and I'm going to go ahead and lay an educated guess out there that he's going to have the work ethic to become a student of the game.

Luck compares favorably in combine measureables to Cam Newton:

40: Luck: 4.67, Newton: 4.59

Cone: Luck: 6.8, Newton: 6.92

Shuttle: Luck: 4.28, Newton: 4.18

Vertical: Luck: 36", Newton: 35"

Broad Jump: Luck: 10'4", Newton: 10'6"

Luck also has more pro style offense reps as he's been operating in Jim Harbaugh's offensive system at Stanford, whereas RG3 has operated mostly from the spread (though, he showed that he can effectively take snaps from under center). With Luck, Arians gets a guy who is similar in stature to Roetlisberger, similar in athleticism to Newton and can, by all expert accounts, throw close to the level of Manning.

If I were to tell you where I think each guy fit better, I'd say that I truly believe that either fits either offensive system. However, the better fit is Luck to Indy and RG3 to DC. And I truly believe that's going to be the case.

But I don't think it's anywhere near as done of a deal as some would lead you to believe. With an entire shakeup of personnel in Indianapolis, anything can happen. But I truly can't see them passing on the guy that's been heralded, and rightfully so, as being the top QB prospect since their last hall of fame quarterback, Peyton Manning.

While I strongly believe that Luck goes to Indy, it's still a possibility that they flip the script and go with RG3. But, let's not get too disappointed in the off chance that occurs. Andrew Luck can run our offense extremely efficiently, and I realize we're all married to the idea of Griffin, but given their skillsets, I truly think we're going to wind up with a stud quarterback for years to come one way or the other.

When Luck is the consolation prize, you know you're in outstanding position.

Let's keep conversation limited to why you think either guy fits either system, and not turn this into a Luck vs. RG3 debate thread. There's enough of that around here

[Bliz]

It's a well thought out post (as per your usual) and I know you're just trying to have a reasonable conversation about what could happen...but I wish you hadn't.

People around here need to come off the ledge. We need more posts about how it is completely inconceivable that the Colts are passing on Luck. Not more about how it is a possibility.

Here are a few tweets from Lavarleap on the subject:

bro real talk it don't matter. Irsay is on luck so bad it cost polian his job. Peyton vs leaf ended the same way with Irsay going the safest prospect.

there is no if.. People need to get that put there minds because it is not happening.

I can't wait until luck throws tommorrow so everyone gets off this colts/rg3 scenario. Should they ya but will they hell no.

I say this with complete respect: you have to be an idiot to think the colts are going to take RG3 or even propose the idea.””

April 26th Andrew Luck will be a colt via the #1 pick in the draft. Alot of reasons behind that decision but that is what the decision is and will be.

https://twitter.com/#!/ll56_httr

...and on and on and on.

Please make it stop.

[wilco_holland]

As an almost graduated marketing major I can say that Luck to Indy just makes to much sence from a marketing point of view.

[Hitman21ST]

Nice writeup.

I'd add to that that Arians doesn't really like to run the bootleg and action off the bootleg, which is a staple of the Shanahan system, and something we say RG3 do plenty of for his pro day. RG3 looks a lot cleaner throwing on the run than Luck does.

Neither Reothlisberger or Manning have an arm that can throw the ball out of the building, which doesn't really seem like a need in Arian's offense. They both can get the ball downfield with zip and accuracy, which Luck can.

[KDawg]

It's a well thought out post (as per your usual) and I know you're just trying to have a reasonable conversation about what could happen...but I wish you hadn't.

People around here need to come off the ledge. We need more posts about how it is completely inconceivable that the Colts are passing on Luck. Not more about how it is a possibility.

Here are a few tweets from Lavarleap on the subject:

https://twitter.com/#!/ll56_httr

...and on and on and on.

Please make it stop.

I realize LL56 is a respected inside source, and rightfully so. But, he's an inside source for the Redskins, not the Colts. So while I believe that he has sources in other organizations, things change, plans change. I don't buy the hype that this is a done deal. And I really dislike the addition of the avatars of RG3 around here... I really think they could be a jinx.

I do think, though, that RG3 is going to be a 'Skin. I'll say it until I'm blue in the face, but there is a possibility, as small as it is, that RG3 is a Colt.

I don't know why people are so scared. Both fit, exceedingly well. The best thing that anyone can do is to be open minded about what happens, so that draft day is happy and exciting, rather than a downer if the unthinkable happens

---------- Post added March-22nd-2012 at 08:47 AM ----------

As an almost graduated marketing major I can say that Luck to Indy just makes to much sence from a marketing point of view.

Yah. But the key there is almost guarantee. Which is a phrase I'm right on board with you on

Nice writeup.

I'd add to that that Arians doesn't really like to run the bootleg and action off the bootleg, which is a staple of the Shanahan system, and something we say RG3 do plenty of for his pro day. RG3 looks a lot cleaner throwing on the run than Luck does.

Luck throws on the run pretty cleanly. I remember one game I watched him (forget who they played) boot out right, throw across his body to his backside read and hit him in perfect stride. It was a thing of beauty.

[chipwhich]

I don't know why people are so scared either.

Luck could be a future HOF'er and RG3 could be a bust.

-or-

RG3 could be a future HOF'er and Luck could be a bust.

I'll take my chances with either QB.

[Hitman21ST]

I don't know why people are so scared either.

Luck could be a future HOF'er and RG3 could be a bust.

-or-

RG3 could be a future HOF'er and Luck could be a bust.

I'll take my chances with either QB.

or both or neither...

---------- Post added March-22nd-2012 at 08:53 AM ----------

Luck throws on the run pretty cleanly. I remember one game I watched him (forget who they played) boot out right, throw across his body to his backside read and hit him in perfect stride. It was a thing of beauty.

Wasn't trying to say that he didn't, just that RG3 (to me, anyway) looks a lot smoother throwing on the run.

[TheDane]

The marketing point mentioned above is a consideration. Luck fits Indianapolis and RG3 fits Washington, DC.

As much as we don't want to believe that has anything to do with the decision, well, it will have something to do with the decision.

[tibbidoe]

This all makes sense. Well done.

From the highlights I've seen, both guys are pretty athletic and all that. It seems Griffin may be better suited in WAS, with all of the rollouts and whatnnot. I haven't seen a ton of Luck rolling out. Not saying he can't, just that I haven't seen a lot of it by design.

Other than that, I really can't disagree with anything in the OP. If there are videos of Luck passing well on rollouts, then Mr. KDawg is 100% right. We have no guarantee that Luck won't be our guy, and that's a great problem to have.

EDIT:

Disregard. Issue was addressed before I posted. I forgot to refresh before I began. Well done, all.

[martytheman]

Soo, the Colts may take Luck or RG3. Ok.

Not to be an ass, but this reminds me of the whole "Browns are in control" thing that was debated ENDLESSLY here in every thread.

In the end it doesn't matter, the skins will pick whoever the Colts don't.

There's nothing to do but wait.

[KDawg]

Soo, the Colts may take Luck or RG3. Ok.

Not to be an ass, but this reminds me of the whole "Browns are in control" thing that was debated ENDLESSLY here in every thread.

In the end it doesn't matter, the skins will pick whoever the Colts don't.

There's nothing to do but wait.

Right. Which was the point.

[LiveStrongSkins]

In my opinion, this is simply a hot streak RGIII is riding. His popularity is at an all time high. People forget that as he was establishing himself with an impressive senior year, Luck was already seen as the best prospect since Elway and did nothing to damper that. In my opinion he fits any type of offensive style that RGIII fits. Luck is built to take a beating, fast enough to outrun it and has a rare football mind for being so young. I do not see any scenario in which RGIII is taken above Luck. I love RGIII and think he will be great as well, but there are far too many people losing judgement. Not intended at Kdawg, just people in general.

[FrFan]

One team source tells Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports that the Colts have already decided on Andrew Luck over Robert Griffin III as the No. 1 overall pick.

"Luck is The Guy," the source insists, "I don't care what happens [at the combine]. I don't care if Griffin flies."

Griffin says being ignored by Colts would be “in the back of your mind”.

[LiveStrongSkins]

Luck has already mastered a pro style offense, called his protections, utilized tight ends and has proven over a larger sample size his consistency. You cannot pass him up with the first pick.

[Hitman21ST]

One team source tells Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports that the Colts have already decided on Andrew Luck over Robert Griffin III as the No. 1 overall pick.

"Luck is The Guy," the source insists, "I don't care what happens [at the combine]. I don't care if Griffin flies."

Griffin says being ignored by Colts would be “in the back of your mind”.

Reports (rumors) are that Irsay likes Luck, the Colts staff likes Griffin. I wouldn't count them out just yet.

[KDawg]

Reports (rumors) are that Irsay likes Luck, the Colts staff likes Griffin. I wouldn't count them out just yet.

Remember, we signed Eddie Royal at one point, too. Everything is fluid in the NFL.

[jaybrant]

I don't see the Colts getting rid of Manning if they weren't 100 percent sure they knew who they were getting to replace him.

[bird_1972]

One team source tells Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports that the Colts have already decided on Andrew Luck over Robert Griffin III as the No. 1 overall pick.

"Luck is The Guy," the source insists, "I don't care what happens [at the combine]. I don't care if Griffin flies."

Griffin says being ignored by Colts would be “in the back of your mind”.

While I believe that the Colts will take Luck, this quote is trotted out entirely too much (I believe it was said a few months ago - its not exactly recent). If one wants to make the case that there is no way Luck gets past Indy, they should provide additional evidence beyond simply just this.

[KDawg]

I don't see the Colts getting rid of Manning if they weren't 100 percent sure they knew who they were getting to replace him.

While this is a great point. Think about it from this perspective, too:

They wouldn't have gotten rid of Manning if they weren't 100% sure they were going to be able to find a replacement for him. And at the time, it may have been Luck. However, keep something else in mind. Even if they go with RG3, they knew damn well they were going to replace Manning with one of the two, and IF the draft RG3 at #1, he became the guy the fell in love with, not Luck.

I still don't think they pass on Luck. But, the point of the OP is that it's a possibility.

All of these RG3 is a definite posts are making me nervous. The avatars are making me nervous. The RG3 jerseys are making me nervous. He's not here yet. Relax on all of that and let's see what happens.

[bird_1972]

Reports (rumors) are that Irsay likes Luck, the Colts staff likes Griffin. I wouldn't count them out just yet.

Eh ... since Irsay is the owner, and I'm getting the impression that he has a strong hand in such personnel decisions, I wouldn't be too concerned with what the Colts staff does or does not want with the #1 pick.

[LaRonDontLikeUgly]

I think this a situation where both teams know who they want their date to the prom will be, and both will get their wish.

One thing that made me happiest about watching the Pro Day yesterday was watching RG3 interact with his teammates. You can tell he's the man out there and everyone is feeding off his positivity. We haven't had many big stars in DC who combine confidence and ability with a positive/selfless nature.

Every time this dude steps on to the field, every Redskin player and coach around him is going to remember why they love the game of football so much.

[Maximus71]

I don't know why people are so scared either.

Luck could be a future HOF'er and RG3 could be a bust.

-or-

RG3 could be a future HOF'er and Luck could be a bust.

I'll take my chances with either QB.

Or they both are HOFers

[LiveStrongSkins]

Reports (rumors) are that Irsay likes Luck, the Colts staff likes Griffin. I wouldn't count them out just yet.

Would be a huge mistake to pass on Luck with the first pick. The guy has NO weaknesses that you can pinpoint. Where did you hear this?

[Hitman21ST]

Would be a huge mistake to pass on Luck with the first pick. The guy has NO weaknesses that you can pinpoint. Where did you hear this?

Just read it in passing on either ESPN or NFL.com I believe. I read it about a week ago, so I can't remember exactly. Sorry. :whoknows:

[LiveStrongSkins]

While this is a great point. Think about it from this perspective, too:

They wouldn't have gotten rid of Manning if they weren't 100% sure they were going to be able to find a replacement for him. And at the time, it may have been Luck. However, keep something else in mind. Even if they go with RG3, they knew damn well they were going to replace Manning with one of the two, and IF the draft RG3 at #1, he became the guy the fell in love with, not Luck.

I still don't think they pass on Luck. But, the point of the OP is that it's a possibility.

All of these RG3 is a definite posts are making me nervous. The avatars are making me nervous. The RG3 jerseys are making me nervous. He's not here yet. Relax on all of that and let's see what happens.

I think they knew they were going with Luck well before RGIII established himself as the clearcut #2. Up until January, it was Luck by a landslide and then everyone else. RGIII has closed the gap, but it is still a gap.