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The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc


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I can't see us going after Batum because of the investment we've made in Porter and Oubre. I think we'll be entirely focused on bigs and back ups.

 

On top of it all, and I forget where I read the quote (maybe BF), but Wall stated that he would love for the team to get a rim protector. 

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I dunno if we underrate Beal. We are just terrified of another possible injury that would derail the season, again. A possibility that is all too real. But its all moot now, he's going nowhere. I would be absolutely shocked if we did anything that would shake the pillars. So, ill just pine my hopes on Otto making the leap.

Four years in, I need to see another gear from him. Even though he's only 22, he's been in the league 4 years now, it's time to see him break out of that 15-17 ppg range. That's not really gonna cut it. That's JJ Redick/Lou Williams territory. Ok role players, nobody you're gonna lose sleep over, or make a cornerstone of your franchise. We're seeing guys at SG like CJ McCollum, Kris Middleton, Jimmy Butler pass him. It's time to go next level, whatever that is for him. Some kind of tangible progression.

Edited by justice98
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Nicolas Batum, Al Horford and Ryan Anderson will reportedly be some of Washington's top free agency targets.

If Batum winds up in Washington, he would essentially destroy the fantasy value of Otto Porter, and Kelly Oubre would really struggle to get into the rotation. The interest in Anderson is reportedly mutual, although there haven't been any reports of Horford seeking a partnership with the Washington franchise. With Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat locked up long-term, it would be strange to see Horford sign with the Wizards.
 
Jun 29 - 11:15 AM

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I'd rather keep Porter. Much younger and cheaper and likely to be better than Batum over the course of the contract Batum is about to sign. Different players, but Porter can already do a lot of what Batum does.

 

(This is where I piss SteveMcQueen off....)

 

Classic McQueen logic: This team sucks, but all of our players are actually really good and should never be traded.

 

You've kind of locked in your top three player as Wall, Beal, and Porter if you follow your plan. That's putting a ton of faith in some dudes that have

Edited by Lombardi's_kid_brother
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Classic McQueen logic: This team sucks, but all of our players are actually really good and should never be traded.

I'm open to making trades and big signings if they lead to upgrades. But signing Batum and trading Porter is not an upgrade. It's not even a lateral move when you factor in the cap hit we'd take from doing it. This was their '15/'16 season:

http://bkref.com/tiny/T68kp

Porter shoots better from everywhere but the FT line and he rebounds and defends about as well. He doesn't need the ball in his hands to put up similar scoring numbers. The only major difference in their skill set and production is the ball handling and assist numbers. But that also leads to Batum turning it over a ton for a secondary/teriary ball handler and makes him a less efficient offensive player than Porter. Wall and Beal are already high TO ball handlers. We don't need another one. We need highly efficient finishers. Porter is already as good or better at that than Batum. Plus he's five years younger and far less expensive.

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Four years in, I need to see another gear from him. Even though he's only 22, he's been in the league 4 years now, it's time to see him break out of that 15-17 ppg range. That's not really gonna cut it. That's JJ Redick/Lou Williams territory. Ok role players, nobody you're gonna lose sleep over, or make a cornerstone of your franchise. We're seeing guys at SG like CJ McCollum, Kris Middleton, Jimmy Butler pass him. It's time to go next level, whatever that is for him. Some kind of tangible progression.

 

Jimmy Butler is 26. Middleton and McCollum are 24 and just seemed to make the jump to the next level this past year.  That actually gives more proof to the likeliness of Beal making a jump this year or next, as long as he doesn't get injured.  We need to give Beal some more opportunity with the new coach and system and hope that Brooks can get him there.  I have a lot more optimism on Beal than I do on Porter or Oubre.

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Batum shouldnt leave Charlotte. For that matter, nor should Lin. 

 

At worst, Batum is a slight upgrade over Otto. Even then, we have spent too much time and resources on giving up on Otto/Oubre now. Anyways, he's nowhere near the upgrade that Whiteside, Howard, or even Crabbe would be. Crabbe has tons of upside, plenty of strength and length, a reliable 3pt shot, and can play multiple positions. The other 2 are clear upgrades over Marcin, and provide things that we desperately need.

Edited by Skin'emAlive
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Batum shouldnt leave Charlotte. For that matter, nor should Lin. 

 

At worst, Batum is a slight upgrade over Otto. Even then, we have spent too much time and resources on giving up on Otto/Oubre now. Anyways, he's nowhere near the upgrade that Whiteside, Howard, or even Crabbe would be. Crabbe has tons of upside, plenty of strength and length, a reliable 3pt shot, and can play multiple positions. The other 2 are clear upgrades over Marcin, and provide things that we desperately need.

 

I don't see Batum leaving, he has said he wants to stay in Charlotte and they are making him their #1 priority to resign.  He said he was happy with the way they let him play how he needs to play, etc.  

 

As for Lin, I think he's gone.  He will only come of the bench in CLT, which he did great for us this past season, and he has said that he wants to be a starter.  With the cost of Batum and Marvin Williams, they most likely won't be able to afford resigning him.  

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Marvin isnt the difference maker that Lin is on your team. Im actually kind of shocked at his resurgence, honestly. He's a quality role player, sure. But I wouldnt spend the bank on the guy until after Lin finds out the starting pg job is taken just about everywhere except Philadelphia.

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Jimmy Butler is 26. Middleton and McCollum are 24 and just seemed to make the jump to the next level this past year. That actually gives more proof to the likeliness of Beal making a jump this year or next, as long as he doesn't get injured. We need to give Beal some more opportunity with the new coach and system and hope that Brooks can get him there. I have a lot more optimism on Beal than I do on Porter or Oubre.

None of them got paid BEFORE making the leap though.

Beal just turned 23 yesterday, but age aside, the only one with significantly more actual game experience is Butler. McCollum just got starter's minutes this year. Beal has been getting minutes from day one. Middleton's about the same, but at least has shown consistent progression. Beal has been basically stagnant. Maybe Scott Brooks will change all that, who knows.

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None of them got paid BEFORE making the leap though.

Beal just turned 23 yesterday, but age aside, the only one with significantly more actual game experience is Butler. McCollum just got starter's minutes this year. Beal has been getting minutes from day one. Middleton's about the same, but at least has shown consistent progression. Beal has been basically stagnant. Maybe Scott Brooks will change all that, who knows.

 

I understand your point about game experience and being paid before making the leap.  However, just based on anecdotal evidence, bodies generally start to mature around 22 or 23 as you grow into being "a man".  I think Beal will get much more consistent and aggressive once his body becomes sturdier or thicker for a lack of better terminology.  He has the work ethic so I'd rather take a gamble that he will continue to progress as he gets older.  

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None of them got paid BEFORE making the leap though.

Beal just turned 23 yesterday, but age aside, the only one with significantly more actual game experience is Butler. McCollum just got starter's minutes this year. Beal has been getting minutes from day one. Middleton's about the same, but at least has shown consistent progression. Beal has been basically stagnant. Maybe Scott Brooks will change all that, who knows.

 

In today's NBA/market, you don't have too much of a choice than to give out a max deal out of good faith with certain players.

 

Even with his injury history and inconsistent play, I think it's a fantastic gamble to make on a JUST-turned 23 year-old. 

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Not in favor of signing Beal to any kind of substantial long term deal. Not after he himself stated last year that his minutes would have to be closely monitored for the remainder of his career. This at age 22!

 

Maybe that was due to the training staff and randy....

 

I'd be curious to see how things change with a new head athletic trainer and brooks at the helm. 

 

Don't know much about who they'll hire for the former, but Brooks is about as close to a 180 from Randy as you can get. 

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Not in favor of signing Beal to any kind of substantial long term deal. Not after he himself stated last year that his minutes would have to be closely monitored for the remainder of his career. This at age 22!

 

That came in the context of averaging 36.5 mins per game through the first 17 games before the injury.  http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/beal-thinks-he-ll-probably-need-minutes-limit-for-rest-of-career-215054048.html

 

That's including the 6 games right before the injury when Whitman had him on the floor for 39.5 mins per game.  To put that in context, 36.5 through the season would have been sixth overall in the NBA.  39.5 would have been first.  Beal ended up with around 31 mpg, which was mid 70's.  According to the article, the team's goal for minute restriction going forward is 35 mpg (which would be top 20ish, I say still too high).  Other players with about 31 min per game?  Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Harrison Barnes, LaMarcus Aldridge, so on and so on. 

 

You rarely get a no-brainer max contract player at the end of the rookie contract.  Everybody remember the argument over max contract to Wall?  Beal max contract is a calculated risk but it is definitely a risk that the team needs to take.

 

On a different topic being discussed, I think once people stop looking at Otto through the prism of 3rd overall and disappointing rookie year, they will see that Otto actually made a pretty good leap last year.  Of course he will have to make bigger leaps if this team is to go anywhere, but I don't see the sense in swapping him for a near max-contract Batum.

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My rule of thumb about minutes per game:

36+ MPG = highly durable star minutes. You don't want your best players hitting or besting this mark for too many seasons of their career. But it usually requires having a well established bench to keep their minutes down below this mark because the temptation is very strong to play them 36+.

34-35 = high quality and durable starting perimeter player minutes. can't miss many games to hit this mark.

32-33 = solid starting minutes for a perimeter player

30-31 = solid starter minutes, particularly for PFs and Cs

25-29 = 6th man/starter who plays in a platoon at his position

20-25 = key bench player minutes

15-19 = fourth big/developmental prospect minutes

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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Yea...I had no clue that Porter compared so favorably to Batum.  Signing Batum to a max deal makes zero sense.

Otto quietly became a good starter over the course of the season. Very low usage, but efficient in the opportunities he got. That kind of player is very valuable to us, because Wall and Beal are going to dominate the ball.

And his defensive metrics were good too, he finished 11th in DRPM among SFs this season, and 11th in total RPM. He gave us a very balanced and promising season and was, in truth, our third best player last year because of all of the time Beal missed.

Otto broke out in that Raptors series and he didn't backslide. Some RealGM posters were talking about him having a Shane Battier-esque impact and I think there are a lot of similarities there. I think he could be an 8 win share player pretty soon.

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Anderson can help us. Truth be told he is better than Keef. I am on board with trying to sign him.

But the more I think about it, the off the radar move that I like best is going after Jared Sullinger. Boston isn't going to want to match a substantial offer at the beginning of FA because they are trying to sign big names. I think we could scoop him up by acting quickly.

He's got a bad rap on him after having a disappointing season. Boston is pissed at him about his weight. But I think he's got sneaky good upside--someone who fails the eye test but is an old school basketball player that just gets it done. He might already be as good a player as Gortat and he's way younger. I could see him eventually becoming a Z-Bo like PF/C.

Ernie doesn't have the vision to see Sully's potential and figure out how to make it work with him though.

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If this is the situation we have found ourselves in, I would be more upset if Washington signed Batum than I would if they signed Anderson. I would be depressed with either outcome though.

 

you have been Grunfeld'd

Edited by StillUnknown
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