Clutch the pearls: I agree with Czaban

[redman]

I don't like living in a world where he makes sense:

http://www.czabe.com/daily/

In general' date=' it's a postive take on free agency, but he does ask a few good questions.[/quote']

The answer is because most 3rd round WR's are busts, and the ones who aren't tend to take several years to develop . . . which is precisely where Lloyd is in his career. I'd rather take Lloyd now than a hope-to-be Lloyd in this year's draft.

[TheLongshot]

And frankly' date=' let's not pretend that free agency is anything less than a crap shoot than the draft. Brandon Lloyd has just hit the jackpot. What's to stop him from opening a record label and stop working out?[/quote']

It certainly is less of a crap shoot, since, unlike draft picks, free agents have actually played in the league, and you can judge them against like competition.

Sure, FA pickups have failed. But, almost guaranteed that the failure rate is lower than your average 3rd rounder.

Really, Czaban should be talking about how good a deal we got. Really, all SF netted in the end for Lloyd is a 4th rounder, even tho he turned out to be somewhat of a steal in the 3rd round. We got the better end of that deal.

Jason

[Darth Tater]

But not to the same degree as a mid-to-low round draft pick...which was the point you were trying to get at before.

There's also this:

We'll know if Lloyd is a bust after this season. We use a 3rd on a WR, we would not know he's a bust for at least two seasons.

So, a FA is a less risky proposition. You pay a risk premium.

A FA will probably be better, sooner. You pay a premium for time value.

Those premiums are set by the market, so you ask yourself: if I pay the premiums do I still believe I'll get better value than the alternative.

[REDMAN7]

Vinne said this draft was very weak in WR's.

[Gregpeck99]

Czaban's remark is simplistic. The entire draft has been devalued by the CBA and elevated salary caps. Why pay $$$ to a risky draft choice when you can go into the bazzar and buy a proven commodity. Only the less sophisticated fan (and or media blabber) still thinks draft choices are worthwhile.

[ntotoro]

Czaban's remark is simplistic. The entire draft has been devalued by the CBA and elevated salary caps. Why pay $$$ to a risky draft choice when you can go into the bazzar and buy a proven commodity. Only the less sophisticated fan (and or media blabber) still thinks draft choices are worthwhile.

Not to mention that, with the extension of the CBA, there is a new precedent being set in terms of contracts.

The signings, in a few years time, will seem downright cheap compared to what teams are going to have to dish out to keep people.

[Gamebreaker]

less than 20% of draft picks make the team.

Where did you get this stat from?

[Peregrine]

Yeah once again the gross ignorance rears its oh so ugly head.

[elkabong82]

I don't understand how this writer, along with the rest of the media, think we are paying too much. When they say that, they are also suggesting that it is going to screw over our cap. We almost did have a little bit of cap trouble b/c of the doubt surrounding the CBA talks. Why would we stupid enough to mess up the cap now? It doesn't make sense. Of course, these are the same people who can't seem to comprehend that there is NO SUCH THING AS CAP HELL FOR THE SKINS.

[Reaganaut]

Two words:

Cliff Russell

[iheartskins]

Ok...the consensus is the draft is a bad idea.

Not necessarily.

With the draft you are far more susceptible to risk than you are with a trade. With any draft choice, you have all the risks that accompany a trade AND you have no performance record in the NFL. Of course this can work out both ways. But wouldn't you rather manage your risk better and take players that are proven at your competition level?

Acquisition through trade is more risk averse decision than doing the same through the draft. It's that simple.

[ThomasRoane]

I don't agree with Czabe. The draft is a real crap shoot. You just have no idea how great or how bad a guy can be until you get him in camp and then see what he does when the real bullets fly.

I rather like the approach of plucking the fruits of other teams labors. We'll take your proven vet (now we're being smart and getting young guys vice the has beens) and we'll essentially give you a lottery ticket in exchange. You could hit the jackpot. But the odds are against you. And even if you do hit it big; we'll wait for the guy to be a UFA and sign him

[Art]

I don't like living in a world where he makes sense:

http://www.czabe.com/daily/

In general' date=' it's a postive take on free agency, but he does ask a few good questions.[/quote']

To take this year's Brandon Lloyd means waiting three years for him to become what the real Brandon Lloyd is already like. Dumb idea.

[bubba9497]

Where did you get this stat from?

do the math, but I read it somewhere

[e16bball]

I think Brandon Lloyd is worth a 3rd and a future 4th.

However, I don't think the difference between Brandon Lloyd and David Givens is worth a 3rd and a future 4th. This is where Czaban's point holds some water.

There is a difference between relying on the draft and utilizing the draft, and it is an important one. Teams like the Bengals in the '90s and the Browns in the early 2000's RELIED on the draft. In other words, they tried to save cap room by and build a team using almost exclusively draft picks. On the other hand, recently successful teams like the Patriots and Eagles have used the draft wisely to supplement their FA acquisitions.

The reason why hanging on to draft picks is important is the accumulation of depth. When the Patriots had a number of DBs go down to injury, they were able to replace them with their backups. These backups were drafted and developed by the team, and played major roles despite being paid virtually peanuts. Additionally, depth developed through the draft allows a team more flexibility in terms of free agency...if you have a player waiting in the wings, you can afford to let veterans with excessively high contract demands go.

In the end, I'm not saying that it is wise to stay out of FA and rely exclusively on the draft. Certainly, as has been repeated ad nauseum in this thread, you could end up with a Cliff Russell or a Desmond Howard. However, it is also not particularly wise to give up picks for Brandon Lloyd when you could get a similar player in David Givens with no draft pick compensation. With our cap number continually on the edge of the limit, it would seem a shrewd maneuver to hedge our bets a little by keeping draft picks and bringing in some dirt-cheap rookies to help us in the depth department.

Additionally, I would like to state that the comment about less than 20% of draft picks making teams is categorically false, and I assume it must have been a joke. Sort of like how 41% of statistics are made on the spot, and whatnot. To "do the math": There were 255 players selected last season. 20% of 255 is 51. There were 32 players selected in the 1st round, and, not surprisingly, all of them made their teams (luckily for this draft class, Andre Johnson was not a member). Assuming the 20% statistic is true, that would mean that only 19 players from the remaining 6 rounds could possibly have made their team...I'm going to go out on a limb and say that more than that made their team. If I had to guess, I'd say at least 70% of draft picks make their team in their first season.

And as for the representation of 3rd round picks on Sundays last year, here is a list of 2005 3rd round picks who played significant roles for their teams last season:

Frank Gore

Charlie Frye

Channing Crowder

Alex Smith (TE)

Ryan Moats

Kirk Morrison

Chris Henry

Ellis Hobbs

Scott Starks

Dominique Foxworth

Leroy Hill

Dustin Colquitt

Nick Kaczur

Adam Snyder

And that is not to mention other players like Andrew Walter, Vernand Morency, Justin Tuck, Eric Green, Richie Incognito, Kevin Everett, and Jordan Beck who are being talked about as major players on their teams in the upcoming season or two.

[ZoEd]

That's sort of the discussion I was trying to trigger with this.

Hines Ward was a third round pick. He did not demand a big salary until this year and even then it was less than what Randle El just got.

And frankly' date=' let's not pretend that free agency is anything less than a crap shoot than the draft. Brandon Lloyd has just hit the jackpot. What's to stop him from opening a record label and stop working out?

In terms of continuity and cost, developing players makes more sense to me than buying them in free agency.

But I am clearly in a very very small minority here.[/quote']

Their own? You see having a 3rd round player succeed the way Loyd has is very uncommon. I'm sure when the 49er's drafted him they drafted the best available and not in their minds a diamond in the rough.

Take Arizona for instance, who wold have thought Boldin would be the impact player he is? It's just not as easy as Czaban or anyone else tries to make it seem. A lot of research goes into drafting and sometimes it just comes down to a gut feeling, this doesn't happen often. By the way Cooley was a third round pick 82nd overall, seems like we found a pearl with him.

[Newera]

Because we have a much better chance of not getting a complete bust.

Ala Taylor Jacobs . . .

[TheLongshot]

However, I don't think the difference between Brandon Lloyd and David Givens is worth a 3rd and a future 4th. This is where Czaban's point holds some water.

On the surface, perhaps not. But that's why teams do their research. Maybe the Skins saw more in Lloyd than they did in Givens?

Jason

[Newera]

thus far, you can't really argue with any of the Redskins moves. Even the Brunnel deal has worked out somewhat. We've traded and have added our core group. The original skins are Jansen and Samuals -- Smoot, Bailey, Arrington, Gardener, Ramsey, Davis, etc are all gone.

We almost have a complete new team.

[Newera]

It's obvious the Redskins have a different philosophy. I think they go into to the draft concentrating more on quality then quantity. Our early picks have done well for us. It's the late gems where we have really gotten nothing.

The Steelers are a team the draft very well. Likewise with the Ravens.

[e16bball]

On the surface, perhaps not. But that's why teams do their research. Maybe the Skins saw more in Lloyd than they did in Givens?

I certainly hope they did. If they viewed them as equal (as I do) it would be a real shame to give up picks for one of them.

The problem for me is actually something that everyone else around here seems to love: The "We want this guy and we will do whatever it takes to get him" attitude. Sometimes you have to settle for the second best player because the opportunity cost of the best player is too high. To use an extreme example, imagine a scenario in which Gregg Williams said "Wow, that Julius Peppers would be a great fit as a DE." We simply cannot then go ahead and give Carolina whatever their heart desires in order to obtain Peppers.

Similarly, I think we wanted to bring in Lloyd and were willing to give up a lot to do it. Many of you are under the impression that 3rd round picks generally fail, but this is not really the case. A lot of them don't become much more than depth, but that is very important. And, just using 2003 as an example, there can be many great picks: Jason Witten, Lance Briggs, Nate Burleson, Chris Brown (the RB, not the singer/dancer, although the latter might be a good pick this year, his stock has never been higher), Chris Simms, Derrick Dockery, and Vince Manuwai.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm glad to have Lloyd aboard since Gibbs and co. wanted him, but I'm a little worried about just handing over those picks for a seemingly marginal improvement. I think that is Czaban's point, and I think it's valid.

[The Mayor]

Just get the guy that will help the team win...this year. Whether that is through FA or draft, I think that's what Gibbs & Co. look for. Next year they may play into the the draft more. Who knows? I bet Gibbs has a plan for that already too. As for the size of the contracts....I don't care. I don't write the checks. Why should anyone outside of the Redskins orginization care?

[e16bball]

Just get the guy that will help the team win...this year. Whether that is through FA or draft, I think that's what Gibbs & Co. look for. Next year they may play into the the draft more. Who knows? I bet Gibbs has a plan for that already too. As for the size of the contracts....I don't care. I don't write the checks. Why should anyone outside of the Redskins orginization care?

I don't care about the money out of Snyder's pockets...I just care that the money and picks could conceivably be used in a more efficient way to maximize the results for the team.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Similarly, I think we wanted to bring in Lloyd and were willing to give up a lot to do it. Many of you are under the impression that 3rd round picks generally fail, but this is not really the case. A lot of them don't become much more than depth, but that is very important. And, just using 2003 as an example, there can be many great picks: Jason Witten, Lance Briggs, Nate Burleson, Chris Brown (the RB, not the singer/dancer, although the latter might be a good pick this year, his stock has never been higher), Chris Simms, Derrick Dockery, and Vince Manuwai.

Two things concern me about the Free agency over draft approach:

1. Depth

2. Desire

The Redskins are going to field a pretty awesome starting unit on both sides of the ball next year. But as soon as two or three players get injured, they are going to have serious issues, because there is no depth on this team. And you build depth through the draft.

As far as desire, Brandon Lloyd may prove me wrong. But a head case player may be able to contain himself until he signs that first big contract (though a head case like Chris Henry apparently can't). Now that Lloyd has gotten "paid," is he going to have the same drive? I don't know. Kendrall Bell got rich last year and apparently decided to take a year off from conditioning. It happens.

One final point: The argument seems to have become that the Redskins stink at the draft so they might as well forget about it. To me, it seems like you would want to improve at drafting. Something like 17 of the Steelers 22 starters last year were home-grown. I would think that the continuity of that situation would be beneficial. Mark Brunell has probably never met half of his current receiving corps.

[PCRoughrider]

It is infinitely better to sign a young, relative-known, quantity, rather than a crapshoot with a 3rd or 4th round pick in the draft.