2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[DiscoBob]

11 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Howell ended up with over 20 picks and like a gazillion sacks taken. I dont see where all this confidence comes from. I dont hate him or anything, but hes damages goods and when you have a chance at a home run swing at a blue chip QB you take it

 

On top of that.... we're not gonna cut Howell.  If we turn out to be wrong, and he grows a significant amount, he's allowed to prove us all wrong and be the QB of the future.  He's just gonna have to fight against a blue chip prospect to do that.  I don't really care who our long term answer is, I just want to do everything we can to make sure there IS an answer....

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, DiscoBob said:

 

On top of that.... we're not gonna cut Howell.  If we turn out to be wrong, and he grows a significant amount, he's allowed to prove us all wrong and be the QB of the future.  He's just gonna have to fight against a blue chip prospect to do that.  I don't really care who our long term answer is, I just want to do everything we can to make sure there IS an answer....

It wouldn't shock me if we traded him, although I'm not sure what his trade value is.

[The Consigliere]

On 1/13/2024 at 8:02 PM, kingdaddy said:

Marvin Harrison Jr. is a combination of CD Lamb and Larry Fitzgerald....he's a surefire NFL star and likely all time Redskin/Commander if you draft him. Are you sure you wanna pass on him to take a QB who may or may not pan out? I'm not. In fact, I'd take MHJ at #3 (after dealing with NE) and then grab either Nix or JJ McCarthy in round 2. Let Howell and the rookie QB play it out for starting QB and pick up the extra 1st round pick from NE in 2025. In this scenario we lock down a stud WR to go with Terry and Dotson and still have two 1st round picks in 2025 in case neither QB we already have pans out. 

If Purdy can work out in SF then so can JJ McCarthy or Bo Nix or even Sam Howell here in DC given a solid coaching staff and more weapons like Marvin Harrison Jr. and a revamped offensive line. Thank you, peace be with you. 

 

Yes I'm sure, 1000x sure. 

[redskinss]

 

N.s.f.w. language. 

 

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8bpVpQq/

[DiscoBob]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

It wouldn't shock me if we traded him, although I'm not sure what his trade value is.

 

If you could get something of value, sure.... but I don't really think your gonna get anything much.  Probably best case is a 4th?

 

I wouldn't move him unless we could get a 2nd or two 3rds... I don't think that would happen.

[The Consigliere]

19 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Howell ended up with over 20 picks and like a gazillion sacks taken. I dont see where all this confidence comes from. I dont hate him or anything, but hes damages goods and when you have a chance at a home run swing at a blue chip QB you take it

I don't really think he's damaged goods, I just think people need to remember what he always was, a QB prospect who even at his best, would've been ranked way below:

Baker

Darnold

Rosen

Allen

Lamar

Kyler

Danny Nickels

Burrow

Tua

Herbert

Lawrence

Lance

Fields

Z. Wilson

Bunk Pickett

Bryce Young

CJ Stroud

A. Richardson

C. Williams

Drake Maye

Jayden Daniels

M. Penix

 

Like, even at the high end, who on that list would he have been rated above? From '18-'24? It's basically limited to maybe Haskins in '19, Mac Jones in '21, maybe Pickett in '22, and that's it. 

 

Meanwhile, Maye, and Williams would be ranked ahead of every single QB on that list, as of draft year, except for perhaps Kyler, Burrow, and Lawrence (and while no one has spoken to it, it would not surprise me if Maye and Williams were also ranked ahead of all the QB's in the '17, '16, '15, '14 and '13 classes as well (maybe not Winston, maybe). 

 

Basically, I loved the Howell pick because Howell was as good as any QB in '22, easily, and cost 1/10th as much as any of them in terms of draft capital, and because his floor seemed likely to be NFL caliber backup, and his ceiling was probably 9th-13th caliber QB. He was the ultimate day 3 value pick. They happen about once every 4-5 years, and it happened in '22. I'm glad it happened, and yes, we absolutely did ---- him over, by gifting him the worst defense in the league or close to it and the worst OL in the league or close to it, not fair at all, but if Howell wanted to make it as a starter in this league, the easiest way to make it, was to try and make chicken salad this season out  of the chieckn ---- we gave him. Other QB's have done it in the past occasionally, but its rare, he had 17 starts or so to do it, and grab it with both hands, but it didn't happen. I would agree that it's not fair, but it doesn't matter, and I foind myself utterly stunned that years after the Haskins and 40 year Alex Smith is fine stupidity of the '20 offseason, people would want to go back to that same dumpster in an alley and try to make chicken salad out of whatever was in it. Wasn't the 2020 stupidity enough for you guys? Wasn't skipping QB in '17 and '18? Skipping QB in the loaded '04 class because we had the retirement tour of Marc Boonell? Skipping QB in '99 because we wanted a win now QB? Not trading up in the greatest QB class ever in 1983 is excusable because we drated a HOF at 28th, but still, how many times do we have to pass on elite QB prospects for ---- vets and sub mediocre prospects before people get it? 

 

And despite saying all this, I still think Howell, if he landed somewhere great, could end up being a 12th-18th caliber QB in the league, maybe. It's just not gonna be here because he guided us to the 2nd overall pick in a draft that's probably the strongest in terms of top end QB prospects since 2004. If that happens, and the best you have at the position is a departing Jacoby Brissett, and a 5th round QB prospect in a crap draft who just through a billion picks and got sacked more times per snap than probably any QB since Cunningham in '86, and Carr in '02, and you'd rather stick w/what you got and draft lineman to protect the empty QB room you have, I honestly don't know what to tell you. Wouldn't it be nice? Yes it would, but we didn't draft a stud QB when we had a chance with Ron and as a result, all of Ron's clowns are gone, and so is the program and plan he failed to build and now we'll try again, but we won't get the QB decision wrong again like we did in '20. 

[Forehead]

So for as many times as I've run the various draft simulators, I wonder how many of these "professional" websites are just using them and then writing an article.  It's amazing how many look the same as the ones I just did.

[kingdaddy]

On 1/15/2024 at 10:49 AM, DiscoBob said:

 

On top of that.... we're not gonna cut Howell.  If we turn out to be wrong, and he grows a significant amount, he's allowed to prove us all wrong and be the QB of the future.  He's just gonna have to fight against a blue chip prospect to do that.  I don't really care who our long term answer is, I just want to do everything we can to make sure there IS an answer....

Interesting that we took Howell in the 5th round, the question is did the organization take him there because they thought he could be the starter some day or did they hope to develop him and see what they have down the road? If the latter is the case shouldn't we just keep developing him and see if we can turn him into an asset? I know it's an entirely new regime but there are worse backups to have on your roster and likely not many better than Howell. He's a good young kid with a good attitude and has skills. Just view him as the 5th round pick he is and tell him he's in the mix but needs to show it on the field. Could turn out to be a nice player to have if the right staff can develop him. 

[Thinking Skins]

On 1/13/2024 at 7:53 PM, kingdaddy said:

I don't think any of these teams make decisions out of fear, and if QB is the pick our guys take then I hope it works out as much as you do. Decisions will be made based on scouting, interviews, analytics and what's best for the team. If Maye, Daniels or Williams is the pick I'll buy in but history doesn't lie, it's a crapshoot. Hopefully we'll have a coaching staff in place to make it work. Here's a question: Is Drake Maye a better QB prospect than Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, Tua, Baker Mayfield? I'd like to know how he compares to guys like this pre-draft. I just hope that if we do go QB it's because we feel like he's a slam dunk NFL QB who will make everyone else better.

 

 

So I'm digging deep into the draft stuff right now and I'm trying not to let my Sam Howell love influence me too much. Maye has some things that compare him very favorably to some people like a Josh Allen and some of the other big QBs. Like he has done some of those big runs like Allen did last week in the playoffs. But so has Daniel Jones. I don't think Drake Maye's PFF Draft Profile is out just yet, but here are two comparisons between Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert. 

 

Now, there's a serious question as to which QB Drake Maye is more similar to, but Maye's YPA is closer to Herbert's (8.9, 8.4, and 8.5 on 10, 517 and 425 attempts). 

 

So this is in the same conference as Daniel Jones but putting up way better numbers. Earlier in this month (or last month) I was very on Maye and comparing him to Jones, but I'm backing off that. Now Herbert was a Pac12 QB so that is an issue in itself because of the lack of defense they play out there and how that inflates the numbers. But he's fared better than say a Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson. 

[Warhead36]

There is no comparison between Daniel Jones and Drake Maye. Jones was a reach of a pick in a bad QB class(after Kyler Murray) that everyone mocked at the time. Maye has been projected as a top 2 pick for multiple years now and has lived up to it if you actually watch him play and can be taken #1 overall without it being a reach in a stacked QB class.

Edited January 18 by Warhead36

[Ghost of]

I used to do small research projects relating to what conferences produced at certain skill positions most reliably but that's all changed and now that PAC schools are going to the Big Ten and ACC, no idea how that interacts or molds these programs into something different.  Other than one legendary family's connection to the southeast, it could have been argued at one point that the SEC did not produce very good QB prospects. And that was when they all played relatively pro-style offenses. 

 

It would be interesting to see a similar analysis of the last 5-10 years (any more and I think you run into issues with how offensive innovation burst onto the NFL but was then countered and now you see all sorts of non-pro style concepts in regular use in the NFL.)  For instance, the PAC teams don't play defense very well from a statistical standpoint.  But does that enable their QBs (aside from USC) to develop their passing skills more? What is the recent record for QBs. Yes, Aaron Rodgers went to Cal, but that was so long ago, I don't know that I'd put stock in it unless it represented continuity with the present.  

[Warhead36]

The game of football both college and pro has changed so much even over the last 5 years that trying to use the past to project guys for the future is almost impossible. You have to judge each prospect on their own merits instead of playing the compare and stats game.

[pcbothwel]

Im not saying Caleb WILL bust, but there are a couple things that are highly concerning to me:

- His flashes on the field are phenomenal, but he his performance against top teams is awful

- He sits out the Bowl game, and his backup lights up the favored Louisville with 330 yards, 6 TDs, and only 1 pick. Hmmmm

- He seems a bit causal/too cool in his interviews and does weird Gen Z stuff like paints his nails a bunch of colors. Sorry, but your franchise guy/leader should be a bit more professional.

- Along with the above, He seems very RG3/brand centric type guy. Other players "going to war" on the field will resent that attitude and loose play style.

- His dad floating ideas about getting equity in the franchise also goes with the previous points.

 

Again, there are on the field stuff (playing within structure, accuracy/consistency, etc.)... But I try to find the obscure details, especially with QB's, as this alludes to future success/failure.

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, pcbothwel said:

Im not saying Caleb WILL bust, but there are a couple things that are highly concerning to me:

- His flashes on the field are phenomenal, but he his performance against top teams is awful

- He sits out the Bowl game, and his backup lights up the favored Louisville with 330 yards, 6 TDs, and only 1 pick. Hmmmm

- He seems a bit causal/too cool in his interviews and does weird Gen Z stuff like paints his nails a bunch of colors. Sorry, but your franchise guy/leader should be a bit more professional.

- Along with the above, He seems very RG3/brand centric type guy. Other players "going to war" on the field will resent that attitude and loose play style.

- His dad floating ideas about getting equity in the franchise also goes with the previous points.

 

Again, there are on the field stuff (playing within structure, accuracy/consistency, etc.)... But I try to find the obscure details, especially with QB's, as this alludes to future success/failure.

Don't really care about the first two points but I'm with you on the rest. He just screams character/diva concerns and ultimately will bust because of that.

 

With that said, I'd still take him in a heartbeat at #2 overall if Maye goes #1 because the talent level is just way too high and I wanna take a home run swing at this stage of our rebuild.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

On 1/15/2024 at 4:02 PM, The Consigliere said:

Yes I'm sure, 1000x sure. 

 

I am 99% on board with going QB at #2. It almost has to be the option. The GOOD news is we are in an absolute win/win. We either go QB at #2 (90%) or Trade out (10%), but there cannot be any other scenario other than those two, and that includes drafting Marvin Harrison, Jr. at #2. I do not care if he is far and away the BPA there, you trade the f out.

 

So hypothetically in that second scenario of trading out ... you WILL get a ransom. Maybe even 2 ransoms. We could shop the pick, which would immediately get New England to cough up picks to flip 2/3. We would likely get #34 and a future 1st or 2nd. You make that trade. Then you're at #3. You can choose to draft a QB there, or trade out again. I assume if you're trading from 2 to 3 you either really like both options there equally OR you do not like either enough to use high draft capital. Teams could be wanting to come up for Daniels or MHJ to get ahead of ARZ. 

 

So you either take Daniels/Maye at #3 or you down a second time and stay in the Top 7/8. Maybe Atlanta comes up for a QB. Take #7, #43 and a 2025 1st to swap picks.

 

In that hypothetical, you'd end up with
1(7), 2(34), 2(36), 2(40), 2(43), 3(67), 3(95), 4(103) ... that's almost 8 picks in the Top 100, including 5 in the top 43. And you'd get a 2025 1st (ATL) and a 2025 1st or 2nd (NE)

 

Where will this front office come down? It will depend on whether they feel they NEED to go QB and one fits the value of the pick, or they really like all 2 or 3 equally enough to risk picking the 3rd option while accumulating picks. I think they'll very likely end up drafting a QB at #2, but the alternative is also a pipe dream ... accumulating huge draft capital both this and next year.

Edited January 18 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Ghost of]

As a counter to Warhead not caring about the first two points:

 

1. Ohio State, which was an excellent team this year, rolled out a backup freshman QB vs. Mizzou and couldn't muster any offense. Yes, they were missing McCord and MHJ but Ohio State always has a great deal of talent. Furthermore, the CFP committee doesn't agree with this frame. They kept FSU out because the FSU offense looked mediocre with a backup and terrible with the 3rd string. The fact that USC's backup goes in and looks like Drew Brees is...suggestive.

 

2. How you play against top teams matters. That's why many top QB prospects are top prospects, their play against good teams not Western Vermont.  As an additional piece, Peyton Manning could not beat Florida and choked in big games in college (not all, just that's why he didn't win the Heisman, frankly.) In the pros, he seemed to carry the exact same problem with him. He was good in "pressure" moments but not the "highest pressure" moments. 

[Thinking Skins]

13 minutes ago, pcbothwel said:

Im not saying Caleb WILL bust, but there are a couple things that are highly concerning to me:

- His flashes on the field are phenomenal, but he his performance against top teams is awful

- He sits out the Bowl game, and his backup lights up the favored Louisville with 330 yards, 6 TDs, and only 1 pick. Hmmmm

- He seems a bit causal/too cool in his interviews and does weird Gen Z stuff like paints his nails a bunch of colors. Sorry, but your franchise guy/leader should be a bit more professional.

- Along with the above, He seems very RG3/brand centric type guy. Other players "going to war" on the field will resent that attitude and loose play style.

- His dad floating ideas about getting equity in the franchise also goes with the previous points.

 

Again, there are on the field stuff (playing within structure, accuracy/consistency, etc.)... But I try to find the obscure details, especially with QB's, as this alludes to future success/failure.

I think your take on Caleb is off. Last year (22) he lost 3 games on his way to winning the Heisman. He had 3 5TD (Utah, Arizona, Tulane) games and 2 4TD games (Stanford and California). Its not like they didn't happen. Sure 2023 wasn't as good of a year but he still had a 4 TD game against San Jose State (7-6) and a 3 TD game against Washington (14-1). 

 

And that's not to speak of his running ability. He had 27 rushing TDs over his time in college, including 11 his last year.

[BBLXIX]

1 hour ago, pcbothwel said:

Im not saying Caleb WILL bust, but there are a couple things that are highly concerning to me:

- His flashes on the field are phenomenal, but he his performance against top teams is awful

- He sits out the Bowl game, and his backup lights up the favored Louisville with 330 yards, 6 TDs, and only 1 pick. Hmmmm

- He seems a bit causal/too cool in his interviews and does weird Gen Z stuff like paints his nails a bunch of colors. Sorry, but your franchise guy/leader should be a bit more professional.

- Along with the above, He seems very RG3/brand centric type guy. Other players "going to war" on the field will resent that attitude and loose play style.

- His dad floating ideas about getting equity in the franchise also goes with the previous points.

 

Again, there are on the field stuff (playing within structure, accuracy/consistency, etc.)... But I try to find the obscure details, especially with QB's, as this alludes to future success/failure.

 

If this is "awful" sign me up.

 

 

Also both teams sat a lot of starters in that bowl game, since it was pointless, and a lot of players entered the Transfer portal. ALSO-Also that story about him wanting equity was fake news (And not even allowed by the NFL either way).

 

I really think we're getting into paralysis, by analysis territory/Prospect Fatigue. Not looking at the whole complete picture (Especially in the context of his perfomances vs the Top 25). Whether he has the mettle to be the defacto Team CEO that'll be decided in interviews. My opinion, if have the chance to draft Williams, you run to the podium. Unfortunately I don't think we will (Unless he REALLY doesn't want to be in Chicago).

Edited January 18 by BBLXIX

[Darrell Green Fan]

On 1/15/2024 at 9:36 AM, skinsfan66 said:

I do not know how QB Howell turns out and you don't either? What about the other QB's. Did you think Love was anything special before this season or why did it take him 4/5 years? How about Goff being coached up and getting his confidence back? How about Coaches making QB's better or building a better team could make a difference? I always said TH was a back up which he is and has nothing to do with this. The last time we had a golden ticket it was RG3 right? Were you the same way with RG3 and anybody that had a different point was wrong, that's how I remember it? I said he ran in a straight line had no wiggle and did not want to trade up to the very end. Some wanted to trade Kirk for looking over his shoulder, I said why? he is on a rookie contract makes no since.  Maybe they get it right this time, I hope so cause they failed last time. I can live with what ever they do, unlike some who can't. If they take a QB top 3 fine, late 1st or later I am fine, Trade down I am fine, pick Harrison I am fine, keep Howell build team I am fine, trade Howell I am fine. Only thing I do not want to do is Trade up to no.1. We have choices and should not be stuck on one way. 

You act as if my opinion that Sam Howell will never be a franchise QB regardless of the situation is some outlier position when it fact it's the majority opinion.  

[SoCalSkins]

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

You act as if my opinion that Sam Howell will never be a franchise QB regardless of the situation is some outlier position when it fact it's the majority opinion.  

The student has become the master. A long road since you thought Jason Campbell would become a franchise QB. Go forth and burst the bubbles of dreamers and their QB man crushes across the interwebs! Bravo! 👏 

[CapsSkins]

3 hours ago, pcbothwel said:

Im not saying Caleb WILL bust, but there are a couple things that are highly concerning to me:

- His flashes on the field are phenomenal, but he his performance against top teams is awful

- He sits out the Bowl game, and his backup lights up the favored Louisville with 330 yards, 6 TDs, and only 1 pick. Hmmmm

- He seems a bit causal/too cool in his interviews and does weird Gen Z stuff like paints his nails a bunch of colors. Sorry, but your franchise guy/leader should be a bit more professional.

- Along with the above, He seems very RG3/brand centric type guy. Other players "going to war" on the field will resent that attitude and loose play style.

- His dad floating ideas about getting equity in the franchise also goes with the previous points.

 

Again, there are on the field stuff (playing within structure, accuracy/consistency, etc.)... But I try to find the obscure details, especially with QB's, as this alludes to future success/failure.

 

Listen I think that stuff is cringe, too, but the league is now majority Gen Z. Players these days are a different breed... they've grown up watching ESPN cover player outfits walking into the stadium. All they know is the free agency era, or as Gen Z would say, "standing on business". I don't think these behaviors will put off contemporary locker rooms the way it might come off to old heads like us as odd lol. 

[skinsfan66]

1 hour ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

You act as if my opinion that Sam Howell will never be a franchise QB regardless of the situation is some outlier position when it fact it's the majority opinion.  

Stick a fork in it's done. Never was about Howel being a franchise QB, never once said that. It was options and choices and Howell being the reason you have to take a top 3. and many stats and reasons, other QB's or whatever. That's Mr. Peters and his group's choice to decide now that we have a GM. 

[UK Skins]

23 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Listen I think that stuff is cringe, too, but the league is now majority Gen Z. Players these days are a different breed... they've grown up watching ESPN cover player outfits walking into the stadium. All they know is the free agency era, or as Gen Z would say, "standing on business". I don't think these behaviors will put off contemporary locker rooms the way it might come off to old heads like us as odd lol. 

Thanks Capskins that's a good take. I'm old too (56) but that's a fair observation and I appreciate it.

[Thinking Skins]

Here are the numbers from PFF for Drake Maye. Like I said, they feel a lot more like a Justin Herbert than a Daniel Jones QB. Its not a 1-1 thing though. There are definitely other QBs that have flamed out that I am skeptical though (Sam Darnold comes to mind) but I don't know if that's a Darnold thing like it was a Josh Rosen thing as to why it didn't work for him. I think

I'm getting more and more in favor of Maye. I still like Howell but Maye is growing on me. 

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:

The student has become the master. A long road since you thought Jason Campbell would become a franchise QB. Go forth and burst the bubbles of dreamers and their QB man crushes across the interwebs! Bravo! 👏 

I have no idea what this is even supposed to mean. 

52 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Stick a fork in it's done. Never was about Howel being a franchise QB, never once said that. It was options and choices and Howell being the reason you have to take a top 3. and many stats and reasons, other QB's or whatever. That's Mr. Peters and his group's choice to decide now that we have a GM. 

You said about Howell "I think with the right coach and the right team Build you can make it work.".  If you do not understand by now that to "make it work" in the NFL you need a franchise QB I don't know what to tell you.

 

You were right, I don't know how Howell will turn out.  But if you are sitting at #2 with this sort of QB prospect there for the taking why on Earth would you settle for Sam Howell and the long odds that he can in fact become a long team starter on a team that contends year after year, which of course is almost always a franchise QB?  When you have the opportunity to take Maye or Daniels you don't even think about the name Sam Howell. 

Edited January 18 by Darrell Green Fan