2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Thinking Skins]

I keep saying this, but people keep using the number of attempts as a negative, trying to say it goes against his yards and TDs because he has so many more attempts. But it also goes against his sacks and INTs too. Look at other guys with less attempts (way less attempts). 

 

 - Mac Jones has 345 attempts and 10 interceptions 3.5 int RATE he got benched, 5 lost fumbles

 - Aiden O'Connell has 210 attempts and 7 interceptions 3.3 RATE he got benched 

 - Desmond Ridder has 334 attempts and 9 interceptions 2.7 RATE he got benched (and reinserted because Heinicke was not good either) , lost 6 fumbles

 - Jordan Love has 447 attempts and 11 interceptions 2.5 RATE but he also has 7 fumbles

 

 - Daniel Jones has 160 attempts and 30 sacks and a sack rate of 15.8

 - Justin Fields has 255 attempts and 32 sacks and a sack rate of 11.1, with 4 lost fumbles

 - Zack Wilson has 357 attempts and 42 sacks and a sack rate of 10.5, with 6 lost fumbles 

 - Bryce Young has 417 attempts and 48 sacks and a sack rate of 10.3, with 5 lost fumbles

 

But these guys aren't producing at the level of Sam Howell, not nearly. Even though 6 of them are first rounders. Sam is outperforming them. 

[sjinhan]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

Explain how Howells value drops during next season?

1) Howell plays poorly and clearly isnt the answer at QB and maybe he isnt even a quality backup.  your value is mostly gone by then

 

2) Howell plays poorly and clearly isnt the answer at QB other than a quality backup.  I guess you have a nice backup but if you could get a 3rd for him this year then you go ahead and do that because it might be better to have a vet QB in the room as a backup to your newly drafted rookie QB.

 

3) Howell plays good enough. Maybe people still want to trade for him but now he only has 1 year left on his rookie contract versus 2

 

4) Howell plays like a top 10 QB then... you have a dilemma on your hands...  who do you trade away or do you just keep both on the roster?  Maybe things will work out better for us than the 49ers but why put your team in that situation.

3 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

But these guys aren't producing at the level of Sam Howell, not nearly. Even though 6 of them are first rounders. Sam is outperforming them. 

 

 

I will say this.. I am ok with us going with Sam and NOT drafting a QB.  Actually I am preferring that right now but it could change once we know what type of HC we are going to get.

If there is an opportunity to trade when there is value in players... healthy organizations do that to improve the team...

 

Holding on to players even when they are not going to be part of the future without considering any offers... that is what Washington have been doing for past 30 years... always holding on to players 1-3 years too long...

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

8 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Explain how Howells value drops during next season?

If he doesn’t play. Same way 49ers gave up three 1sts + for Trey Lance then traded him for a 4th.

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

If he doesn’t play. Same way 49ers gave up three 1sts + for Trey Lance then traded him for a 4th.

We have a player we used a 5th on, with two more years of a rookie deal who can start. 

 

That's his value, even on the bench.

 

The only way people are trading a 2nd for Howell, is if they pass on 4 other QBs in the draft who could be starters. They won't.

 

If teams think Howell is a bonefide starter and worth a 1rst, awesome. Then he's also worth a first to a needier team half way through the season and going into next offseason.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 hours ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

If we get lucky enough to draft one of the top 2 QBs then you have to get one regardless of what you think of Sam. Just think if we went with Tua or Herbert instead of that generational talent Chase Young we would not be in the mess we are in today. Drafting a guy with the second overall pick and then trading him for a third. What a joke this franchise is. What is that old saying, “people that forget the past are doomed to repeat it”? If you get the chance pick the QB from UNC I believe he is from,  take him or trade the pick for multiple picks. Using a top 3 pick on a O lineman is dumb. 

 

If we pick #2 I think there are 2 realistic options. 

1. Draft Maye or Williams

2. Trade the pick

 

There 3rd, slightly less realistic option is drafting Marvin Harrison, Jr. I don't see us going OT there as that would likely be considered a reach. BPA will be QB or Harrison. 

[Conn]

3 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

How are people saying we get such a low pick for Howell? He is a first rounder at LEAST. That's the starting point of negotiations. You don't let a starting QB go on a rookie contract who is a pro bowler in the top 5 in yards and top half in TDs go for a 3rd rounder. Thats how we unerestimated Cousins, thinking nobody wanted him. He was a good starter. 

That wasn’t what happened with Cousins, they turned down the #2 overall pick from Kyle out of spite and to try and be a playoff team before he had to be paid. Stupid, but he was clearly valuable. 
 

Howell doesn’t have that kind of value right now imo. How he finished these next few games against good D’s will weigh heavily, though.  

[YouLikeThat]

14 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I’ll just say this, if the new GM is ready to give up on Sam because he thinks he isn’t good, and use our high first round pick on a quarterback when we have more glaring needs, he better be right… About both.

All a GM has to do is come to the conclusion that he isnt elite and TRY for an elite QB thats puts you in or around the conference championship every year. Again even if he was as good as Cousins with Cousin's  stat padding he still wouldn't be Elite but still trick a team to give him 40mil a year like him and Daniel Jones. I just dont want my team being the fools

[JamesMadisonSkins]

It is hard to get a read in the middle of the season. Seems when the dust settles and we move on to the off-season, you start to hear a bit more from around the league as far as what the league circles are telling the media folks, which inevitably trickles out as fodder and gossip.

 

I would imagine, especially if we have a Top 3 pick, that the Howell question will be a hot topic in the NFL this off-season especially as we onboard a new FO and that also becomes a topic. I am sure we'll see / hear some smoke through that process, but I also think we'll start to hear what other NFL franchises, insiders, sources, etc. think of Howell based on the 2023 tape. 

My guess? We'll hear a LOT about how he proved himself in a poor situation, and is viewed around the league as a starting QB with Top 15-20 upside. 

 

I think it'll become quite clear what our intentions are of that early round pick as well. If it's clear we're going QB, then suddenly Sam's name becomes a hot off-season topic. 

 

My guess: we stick with Howell, trade out of a Top 3 pick.

 

If our new GM wants his own QB, then I would expect Sam's value will be a 1st round value, minimum. There's many ways to get there. Using Minnesota as an example:

 

1. Minnesota's 1st

2. Minnesota's 2nd, 5th and 2025 2nd.

3. Minnesota's 3rd and a 2025 1st. 

[Redskins 2021]

I still don't think we get higher then 4. If we got to 3 you would have to really consider Harrison. Are Wr are pretty good but that would be the first time this team had a real potential game changer on the team.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

I still don't think we get higher then 4. If we got to 3 you would have to really consider Harrison. Are Wr are pretty good but that would be the first time this team had a real potential game changer on the team.

 

I was a hard no on Harrison, Jr. for a while. I just feel like WR is a luxury when you have no OL, especially with Dotson and McLaurin. But for whatever reason I find myself okay with Nabers or the FSU WR further down in the Top 10 if we traded back (or Bowers even). But in those scenarios we add picks via trade down so it becomes more palpable for me. But if the difference between Harrison, Jr. and Nabers is that vast, then I agree, add the playmaker, and hit OL in R2 and FA.

 

Many ways to improve this team this off-season. I would like to think a starting LG and RT at a minimum could be had there in Round 2. I'd be considering WR in R2 if we went OL in R1, so I agree we need assets around Howell however we can get them.

4 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

I still don't think we get higher then 4. If we got to 3 you would have to really consider Harrison. Are Wr are pretty good but that would be the first time this team had a real potential game changer on the team.

 

If we lose out, we just need Arizona to beat the Seahawks or Bears. Both seem doable. If that happens we lock in #3 regardless of whatever else happens.

 

Getting to #2 is harder. Basically need Pats to win 2 more games or win 1 more game and need a LOT to happen for our SOS to come closer together.

 

BY THE WAY ... The PFN must have been reading our board because now they have a Playoff Predictor that also shows draft order based on those live results.

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

I'm not too worried about trading back too far honestly. This draft is extremely deep at some spots we need.

Plus, it's the draft. QBs, edge rushers, CBs and WRs are all going to rise above their rankings. So are OTs.

No I was meaning they are too far back to be  in a realistic position to get to #4

[Redskins 2021]

30 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

I was a hard no on Harrison, Jr. for a while. I just feel like WR is a luxury when you have no OL, especially with Dotson and McLaurin. But for whatever reason I find myself okay with Nabers or the FSU WR further down in the Top 10 if we traded back (or Bowers even). But in those scenarios we add picks via trade down so it becomes more palpable for me. But if the difference between Harrison, Jr. and Nabers is that vast, then I agree, add the playmaker, and hit OL in R2 and FA.

 

Many ways to improve this team this off-season. I would like to think a starting LG and RT at a minimum could be had there in Round 2. I'd be considering WR in R2 if we went OL in R1, so I agree we need assets around Howell however we can get them.

 

If we lose out, we just need Arizona to beat the Seahawks or Bears. Both seem doable. If that happens we lock in #3 regardless of whatever else happens.

 

Getting to #2 is harder. Basically need Pats to win 2 more games or win 1 more game and need a LOT to happen for our SOS to come closer together.

 

BY THE WAY ... The PFN must have been reading our board because now they have a Playoff Predictor that also shows draft order based on those live results.

 Does us beating NE and AZ have any effect on anything?

Does head to head matter,I keep hearing  diffrent things. 

No doubt this team needs talent everywhere we can get it. If you look at the past couple years we never had a top level game breaking player. I guess RG3 was one but just seems like we never have one.  

Edited December 14, 2023 by Redskins 2021

[CapsSkins]

7 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 Does us beating NE and AZ have any effect on anything?

Does head to head matter,I keep hearing  diffrent things. 

No doubt this team needs talent everywhere we can get it. If you look at the past couple years we never had a top level game breaking player. I guess RG3 was one but just seems like we never have one.  

Strength of schedule is the first tie-breaker, not head-to-head. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

It's nearly impossible to flip the SOS with the Patriots (assuming they win 1 more game).

Here is who they have that we do not ... so we need to root for them to win as many remaining games as possible to boost the Patriots SOS:

Saints, Raiders, Colts, Chargers, Steelers, Chiefs

 

We want the AFC East to keep winning and the NFC East to keep losing. We played each other this year, but every win the AFC East gets = 2 wins for the Pats SOS and 1 win for our SOS. The flipside is true ... every NFC East win gets us 2 wins and loss gets us 2 losses and 1 win and 1 loss for the Pats.

 

Need the Bills and Dolphins to beat the Cowboys. That's unlikely. 

I did find one path that flips our SOS by .03 should we both finish with 4 wins, but it's tough to see it happening and we basically require Dallas to finish 11-6. 

 

I forget what the other game results were, but even with the Cowboys losing to the Bills and Dolphins, the Steelers beating the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 17 was enough to flip us to .516 and the Pats to .519. We played Seattle, they played the Steelers. Again, a pretty unlikely scenario.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Week 15 Rooting Interests re: SOS and Draft Positioning:

Panthers over Falcons

Patriots over Chiefs

Browns over Bears

Rams over Commanders

Bills over Cowboys

Seahawks over Eagles

Lions over Broncos

 

Week 16 Rooting Interests re: SOS and Draft Positioning

Steelers over Bengals

Bills over Chargers

Colts over Falcons

Jets over Commanders

Cardinals over Bears

Dolphins over Cowboys

Patriots over Broncos

Ravens over 49ers

Titans over Seahawks

Saints over Rams

 

Week 17 Rooting Interests re: SOS and Draft positioning:

Jets over Browns

Lions over Cowboys

Dolphins over Ravens

Rams over Giants

Cardinals over Eagles

Steelers over Seahawks

Saints over Bucs

Chiefs over Bengals

49ers over Commanders

 

Week 18 Rooting Interests re: SOS and Draft positioning:

Arizona over Seattle

Steelers over Ravens

Bears over Packers

Colts over Texans

Patriots over Jets

Saints over Falcons

Cowboys over Commanders

 

This gets us to the #2 pick. If the Patriots and Cardinals each win 1 more game, I think we need somewhere around 23-24 of the 30 above results to hold for us to maintain an SOS edge over the Patriots. FWIW, if everything above went down, we'd be well ahead of the Pats in SOS, but once you start flipping a few of the games it gets incredibly close.

Edited December 14, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Redskins 2021]

 What if we beat the Jets ? How far can we fall?

[UK Skins]

6 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I'm personally a little taken aback by this comment. Have you seen Taliese Fuaga play? He is as good a prospect if not better than Sewell to me. Fashanu and Alt are nothing to sneeze at either. Now, I agree with can trade back and still come away with an excellent OT because this class is loaded but I personally would label Fuaga as an elite caliber prospect.

Now I know bugger all about College Football but my understanding is that Fuaga is a RT? Would love him, presumably in the 2nd round though.

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

How are people saying we get such a low pick for Howell? He is a first rounder at LEAST. That's the starting point of negotiations. You don't let a starting QB go on a rookie contract who is a pro bowler in the top 5 in yards and top half in TDs go for a 3rd rounder. Thats how we unerestimated Cousins, thinking nobody wanted him. He was a good starter. 

 

You're joking, right? 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

14 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 What if we beat the Jets ? How far can we fall?

 

If you go with chalk ... if the Commanders beat Jets ... it depends on what happens with Jets/Pats in Week 18

If the Pats beat the Jets, we'd pick 6th behind the Patriots(3rd), Jets(4th), Giants(5th)

If the Jets beat the Pats, we'd pick 5th behind the Pats(2nd), Cards(3rd), Giants (4th)

 

That's also assuming the Giants don't win another game. If they did, we'd pick 4th or 5th depending on that Week 18 matchup between the Jets and Pats

[Koolblue13]

12 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

You're joking, right? 

This Trading Howell talk is the dumbest QB related **** that I've seen on this board since someone demanded we resign Heinickie to a big multi year contract.

[RVAskins]

17 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

If you go with chalk ... if the Commanders beat Jets ... it depends on what happens with Jets/Pats in Week 18

If the Pats beat the Jets, we'd pick 6th behind the Patriots(3rd), Jets(4th), Giants(5th)

If the Jets beat the Pats, we'd pick 5th behind the Pats(2nd), Cards(3rd), Giants (4th)

 

That's also assuming the Giants don't win another game. If they did, we'd pick 4th or 5th depending on that Week 18 matchup between the Jets and Pats

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am higher than both Fashanu and Alt than most.  I think they are both legit top 10 picks.  But I am probably somewhere in between the mock draft community who think both guys are super great prospects, slam dunk no brainer top pick 5 picks especially Fashanu and some of the critics of both players on the board who think they are overrated and aren't so hot.

 

I think both would be strong gets in the top 10, heck I wouldn't hate it in the top 5 either.

 

But i do like the depth at that spot so for the O line or bust crowd, I'd rather trade down.  And overall Marvin Harrison Jr. or a QB if they love one intrigue me much more.

 

I also think it's reasonable to argue that this class has a couple of guys with all pro potential at QB, at WR, at TE, and the OL's, other than Fashanu, look like good to very good starters in that Scherff mode, rather than John Hannah, Anthony Munoz all Decade team upside. As such, its hard to justify passing on the two mega elite WR's (there really are 2, plus a whole slew of very good ones), a mega elite TE, and 2 QB's who do rate more or less inbetween the 2nd tier top of draft guys the past decade (Winston/Marriota, Wentz/Goff, Kyler) and the mega elite's (Luck, Lawrence, Burrow etc). They are closer to the latter and the former. It's damn hard to justify going OL, when you have guys with the highest ceiling possible evals available at TE, WR, and QB also on the board. Fashanu is the only one I'd consider, or Alt in a trade down (or Bowers in a trade down). Harrison Jr, Neighbors, the two, maybe 3 QB's and Bowers, are just beyond special prospects, Fashanu might be that, and honestly, Fashanu would've gone 1.01 or 1.02 in a lot of lesser drafts, this draft is just unusually top heavy which is why losing out is really good (as well as reasonably deep at quite a few positions of need which is great too). 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

29 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I also think it's reasonable to argue that this class has a couple of guys with all pro potential at QB, at WR, at TE, and the OL's, other than Fashanu, look like good to very good starters in that Scherff mode, rather than John Hannah, Anthony Munoz all Decade team upside. As such, its hard to justify passing on the two mega elite WR's (there really are 2, plus a whole slew of very good ones), a mega elite TE, and 2 QB's who do rate more or less inbetween the 2nd tier top of draft guys the past decade (Winston/Marriota, Wentz/Goff, Kyler) and the mega elite's (Luck, Lawrence, Burrow etc). They are closer to the latter and the former. It's damn hard to justify going OL, when you have guys with the highest ceiling possible evals available at TE, WR, and QB also on the board. Fashanu is the only one I'd consider, or Alt in a trade down (or Bowers in a trade down). Harrison Jr, Neighbors, the two, maybe 3 QB's and Bowers, are just beyond special prospects, Fashanu might be that, and honestly, Fashanu would've gone 1.01 or 1.02 in a lot of lesser drafts, this draft is just unusually top heavy which is why losing out is really good (as well as reasonably deep at quite a few positions of need which is great too). 

 

 

Agree.  Your point about it being top heavy is a mantra not just of mock drafters but I recall someone mention that a personnel guy who sees it that way,  

 

Comparing Drake Maye and Caleb Williams to the NFL’s Recent Draft Stars

A closer look at the top two QB prospects hints at an enticing consensus for teams with high draft picks.

• ALBERT BREER
• 1 HOUR AGO

I’m back from the owners meetings. And you had questions for me …

From johnwinger (@johnwinger98524): According to personnel people, how do Caleb and Drake stack up compared to the last 3 years of qbs, if they were all in the same draft?

John, so I had an idea, but just to double back, I sent a few texts out to see where the two stood now, with both players’ college careers likely complete. (Pending Caleb Williams’s call on playing in USC’s bowl game, but since that bowl is the Holiday Bowl … I’d guess his next game action comes next summer in the NFL’s preseason.)

 

 

And it turns out the consensus is even stronger than what I’d imagined it’d be.

One AFC exec said he believes Caleb Williams and Drake Maye would’ve been the first and second quarterbacks taken in 2023 and ’22, in addition to this year, and they would’ve been the second and third guys to go in ’21, behind only Trevor Lawrence. An NFC exec went a step further, texting that, based on film, he’d have Williams and Maye “definitely above them all other than Lawrence,” then said he’d go, in order, “Caleb, Trevor, Drake.” An AFC college director added he sees this year’s top two as the “best since Trevor Lawrence.”

Now, not everyone will think that way. In fact, I talked to one veteran evaluator last week who felt like LSU’s Jayden Daniels had a chance, in the coming months, to pass Maye. I’d also say Williams has a few more detractors than he did three months ago (though I call them “detractors” in very relative terms). But the bottom line here is that this is a really good year to need a quarterback, if you happen to have a high pick.

 

From ryuryu2949 (@ryuryu2949): It is clear the Jets need to rebuild their OL for next year (LT, RT, maybe one G). Who are realistic targets among free agents and likely draft picks in the 7-15 range?

Ryu, the Jets are in a potentially funky spot. If you assume they are picking in that range, then it might be just past where the presumed top two tackles go. If the draft were today, I’d guess the first three picks in some order would be Williams, Maye, and Ohio State star Marvin Harrison Jr. I’d say after that, at No. 4, two tackles are in play, and both could go quickly, one being Notre Dame’s Joe Alt and the other being Penn State’s Olumuyiwa Fashanu.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[El Mexican]

41 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

This Trading Howell talk is the dumbest QB related **** that I've seen on this board since someone demanded we resign Heinickie to a big multi year contract.

 

This discussion is actually dumberer.

[RWJ]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree.  Your point about it being top heavy is a mantra not just of mock drafters but I recall someone mention that a personnel guy who sees it that way,  

 

Come on down, Jayden Daniels (I hope) to The Commanders at #3 or #4!