2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, MrJL said:

So, what's the likely best pick we get if we lose out?  Carolina isn't likely to win 4 of their last seven so number one seems out. We lost to Chicago and the Giants so we need them each to win one more and we pass them.  The Giants might not, but Tyrod Taylor should be back by they play Green bay so that's possible. Bears play the Cardinals.  That's a possible win Atlanta has an equal number of wins as us and a game against Carolina. New England has a few possible wins;  the Giants, the Jets the Broncos to get them one more win than us.

 

Feels like the best we can do is likely 4 or 5

 

 

I think our ceiling is #4. Bears(from Panthers), and Pats are almost locks to be picking top 2. 3rd will probably be either Cardinals, Bears, or Giants but its uncertain. Cards have played much better with Murray back and Fields and the Bears offense looks like it could steal some games. Giants if they get healthy might win some as well. 

 

Would be amazing to pick 3rd though. Guaranteed we'd get one of the top 2 QBs or Harrison jr. 

[Silvernon]

I'm happy to be in the 5-10 range to take out the urge to draft the second ranked QB and get a weapon for Sam.

 

Two top picks in the 2nd round are so interesting and impacts the first pick. 

1. You can trade both 2nds to get into the mid-late teens to draft a WR or LT.
2. Trade the WSH 2nd and 3rd for late 1st Rnd to draft a G/T or WR
3. Draft OT with CHI 2nd and OG with WAS 2nd
4. Draft WR and MLB

My ideal 2nd round is a starting G/T and starting MLB. Gives you the option to go RB/WR and IOL for the 3rd round.

 

Need to come away with 3 starters (and 1 star) with those top 40 picks and I would rather trade up with one of the 2nds than down. 

[method man]

1 minute ago, Silvernon said:

I'm happy to be in the 5-10 range to take out the urge to draft the second ranked QB and get a weapon for Sam.

 

Two top picks in the 2nd round are so interesting and impacts the first pick. 

1. You can trade both 2nds to get into the mid-late teens to draft a WR or LT.
2. Trade the WSH 2nd and 3rd for late 1st Rnd to draft a G/T or WR
3. Draft OT with CHI 2nd and OG with WAS 2nd
4. Draft WR and MLB

My ideal 2nd round is a starting G/T and starting MLB. Gives you the option to go RB/WR and IOL for the 3rd round.

 

Need to come away with 3 starters (and 1 star) with those top 40 picks and I would rather trade up with one of the 2nds than down. 

 

I feel tackles are more likely to hit the ground running than guards on average. Look at the PFF grades of all the interior linemen taken in rd 2 - Torrence, Avila, Mauch and Tippmann have not been particularly good. Same thing applies to MLBs, especially green dot MLBs - it takes time for these guys to get acclimated to the NFL and you are not going to get a guy who is ready to hit the ground running off the bat more likely than not.

 

LG and green dot MLB are definitely two positions I'd rather target in FA. As of now, I'm with most here where if we pick top 6, I'd lean Harrison or Bowers if either guy is there. I would then package both those 2nds to move back into the mid 1st to grab a tackle. 

[Ball Security]

Big games this weekend for draft position. Tennessee vs Carolina and NYG/NE. Both Tenn and NYG have a good chance at getting to 4 wins.

 

Atlanta and Green Bay also have Carolina left so they should get to at least five wins.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Ball Security

[method man]

3 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Big games this weekend for draft position. Tennessee vs Carolina and NYG/NE. Both Tenn and NYG have a good chance at getting to 4 wins.

 

Atlanta and Green Bay also have Carolina left so they should get to at least five wins.

Given how in shambles the Pats O is, the NYG D should put up a good fight. The Pats secondary is currently a ****show with them cutting Jack Jones and JC Johnson being on the outs. That one should be interesting 

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, method man said:

Given how in shambles the Pats O is, the NYG D should put up a good fight. The Pats secondary is currently a ****show with them cutting Jack Jones and JC Johnson being on the outs. That one should be interesting 

Patriots are AWFUL. Giants should beat them pretty bad.

[Rufus T Firefly]

So, does Tankathon do Stragth of Schedule for the opponents you have faced so far, rather than the entire schedule? It seems that way with how much it changes from week to week. 

 

If so, that's a really stupid way of doing things. I don't care what Washington's opponents so far have for a combined record, I care what happens with teams we tie at the end of the year.

[zCommander]

This is interesting from ESPN.

 

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations.

 

1. Chicago Bears (via 1-9 CAR)

Average draft position: 2.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 57%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 95.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.8%

---

2. Arizona Cardinals (2-9)

Average draft position: 3.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 19.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.4%

---

3. New York Giants (3-8)

Average draft position: 3.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 84.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99%

---

4. New England Patriots (2-8)

Average draft position: 5.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 58.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 93%

---

5. Chicago Bears (3-8)

Average draft position: 6.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 48.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 90.4%

---

6. Washington Commanders (4-7)

Average draft position: 6.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 45.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 90.5%

---

7. Tennessee Titans (3-7)

Average draft position: 7.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 78.3%

---

8. Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)

Average draft position: 9.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 68.9%

---

9. New York Jets (4-6)

Average draft position: 9.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 14.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 61.6%

---

10. Atlanta Falcons (4-6)

Average draft position: 12.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 47.9%

---

11. Green Bay Packers (4-6)

Average draft position: 12.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 41.7%

---

12. Los Angeles Rams (4-6)

Average draft position: 14.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 22%

---

13. Denver Broncos (5-5)

Average draft position: 14.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.5%

---

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)

Average draft position: 14.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.3%

---

15. Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

Average draft position: 15.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13%

---

16. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)

Average draft position: 15.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.9%

---

17. Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

Average draft position: 16.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.3%

---

18. Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

Average draft position: 18.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6%

---

19. New Orleans Saints (5-5)

Average draft position: 18.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.1%

---

20. Buffalo Bills (6-5)

Average draft position: 19.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2%

---

21. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)

Average draft position: 19.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.5%

---

22. Minnesota Vikings (6-5)

Average draft position: 20.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.5%

---

23. Arizona Cardinals (via 6-4 HOU)

Average draft position: 20.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2%

---

24. Houston Texans (via 7-3 CLE)

Average draft position: 23.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%

---

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)

Average draft position: 25.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%

---

26. Detroit Lions (8-2)

Average draft position: 26.2

---

27. Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

Average draft position: 26.5

---

28. Miami Dolphins (7-3)

Average draft position: 26.8

---

29. Baltimore Ravens (8-3)

Average draft position: 27.3

---

30. San Francisco 49ers (7-3)

Average draft position: 28.2

---

31. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3)

Average draft position: 28.6

---

32. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

Average draft position: 29.1

[Ball Security]

That’s pretty cool. I wonder if the model accounts for Burrow’s injury. I could see them stuck on five wins.

[Rufus T Firefly]

41 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

That’s pretty cool. I wonder if the model accounts for Burrow’s injury. I could see them stuck on five wins.

I would assume so. Giving them a 1 in 6 chance of moving pretty far up to get into the top 10. Hard to see those kind of odds if Burrow was playing. 

[Commander202]

I’d like to trade the pick back but I like to draft Tatu if he’s there .
 

[Ball Security]

Green Bay gets their fifth win unexpectedly. That helps.

[markmills67]

Are we currently picking 6th ?

[CommDownMan]

5 minutes ago, markmills67 said:

Are we currently picking 6th ?

https://www.tankathon.com/nfl

 

This still says 7.  I think the 6 above is the calculated results in order,  suggesting the model thinks 6th is most likely. 

[CarlH]

Does the winner of the SF vs Seattle game have any implications for our pick?

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 minutes ago, CarlH said:

Does the winner of the SF vs Seattle game have any implications for our pick?

Not unless Seattle is going to lose out and we win multiple games.

[kingdaddy]

On 11/20/2023 at 11:29 PM, Silvernon said:

I'm happy to be in the 5-10 range to take out the urge to draft the second ranked QB and get a weapon for Sam.

 

Two top picks in the 2nd round are so interesting and impacts the first pick. 

1. You can trade both 2nds to get into the mid-late teens to draft a WR or LT.
2. Trade the WSH 2nd and 3rd for late 1st Rnd to draft a G/T or WR
3. Draft OT with CHI 2nd and OG with WAS 2nd
4. Draft WR and MLB

My ideal 2nd round is a starting G/T and starting MLB. Gives you the option to go RB/WR and IOL for the 3rd round.

 

Need to come away with 3 starters (and 1 star) with those top 40 picks and I would rather trade up with one of the 2nds than down. 

With 3 picks in the top 39 I'd love to see us look to turning that into 4 picks in the 1st two round this year and adding a 1st or 2nd rounder next year as well. We could do what Detroit did this past draft and add impact players on both sides of the ball. This is gonna be an exciting offseason as soon as the final game is over all the way thru the draft. New GM, head coach, 90 mil in free agency to spend and three picks in the first 2 rounds, 5 in the first three. We have a LOT to look forward to compared to the **** show we've been. Josh Harris needs to nail the GM position and then the head coach.....**** the popcorn, get your pizza and beers ready.

[Silvernon]

14 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

With 3 picks in the top 39 I'd love to see us look to turning that into 4 picks in the 1st two round this year and adding a 1st or 2nd rounder next year as well. We could do what Detroit did this past draft and add impact players on both sides of the ball. This is gonna be an exciting offseason as soon as the final game is over all the way thru the draft. New GM, head coach, 90 mil in free agency to spend and three picks in the first 2 rounds, 5 in the first three. We have a LOT to look forward to compared to the **** show we've been. Josh Harris needs to nail the GM position and then the head coach.....**** the popcorn, get your pizza and beers ready.

I'm not a fan of trading down. 

 

Maybe 1/20 drafts are bad enough that you won't get one of your 5 best players with a top 5 pick, provided you make the correct decision. 

 

Would I be opposed to trading down within the top 10? Not necessarily as this draft is probably strong enough at the top...but this could be the Kerrigan/Watt dilemma all over again. Quality > Quantity. 

 

Witherspoon went 5th overall last year and was the best player on that Seahawks D when they played this team. 

 

Thibodeaux

Ja'Mar Chase

Tua/Herbert

Devin White

Bradley Chubb

 

If you aren't terrible, you can find an All-Pro. 

[HigSkin]

 

[Warhead36]

I think all three will happen

[Renegade7]

The higher the pick is, the more I want to trade down.

 

We have so many holes in so many places...without an answer to whether we keep McLaurin or not, picking best weapon would be missing the point that we just did that with Dotson.

 

The more ammo we have pick-wise, the more drafts we can be ensured of having more picks than our default similar to what Philly is doing.

 

We just tried the generational talent we can't pass up with the #2 overall pick, we traded him before his rookie contract expired.  That can happen again despite our best intentions, but we can't afford another L like that right now.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think we have a shot at #3 if we lose out.  The teams above have an easier schedule and most play each other where something has to give

4 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

The higher the pick is, the more I want to trade down.

 

We have so many holes in so many places...without an answer to whether we keep McLaurin or not, picking best weapon would be missing the point that we just did that with Dotson.

 

The more ammo we have pick-wise, the more drafts we can be ensured of having more picks than our default similar to what Philly is doing.

 

We just tried the generational talent we can't pass up with the #2 overall pick, we traded him before his rookie contract expired.  That can happen again despite our best intentions, but we can't afford another L like that right now.

 

For me it depends.  If its Marvin Harrison JR.  I am not trading down.  Heck some think he should be the first pick in the draft he's that good.  I think for that they need to pick 3.

 

But if not him, as much as I like Fashanu and Bowers, I'd trade down if I could and hope to get Fauga.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

If we are as high as 3 or 4 there should be incredible offers on the table.

 

What an opportunity for a new GM and coaching staff that need lots of new talent that fit in schemes they use.

 

They could really stock shelves with quality players if you use the strength of the draft to your benefit. 

[Panninho]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think we have a shot at #3 if we lose out.  The teams above have an easier schedule and most play each other where something has to give

 

For me it depends.  If its Marvin Harrison JR.  I am not trading down.  Heck some think he should be the first pick in the draft he's that good.  I think for that they need to pick 3.

 

But if not him, a much as I like Fashanu and Bowers, I'd trade down if I could and hope to get Fauga.

If we draft at 3, you'd also have to think about taking a QB. Especially if e.g. the Cardinals/Bears draft before us and stick with their QBs (which I do not expect, but still). I am not down on Howell by any means but if Maye or Williams are realistic options, a conversation needs to be had. 5 years of rookie salary with a top-end QB prospect...I could see a GM opting for that and everything should be on the table for the new front office.

You might be able to trade up from 3 without giving up the farm because that would ensure the other team a shot at MHJ. So it could make sense.

 

Anyways, it would be an awesome year to pick top 3.

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, Silvernon said:

I'm not a fan of trading down. 

 

Maybe 1/20 drafts are bad enough that you won't get one of your 5 best players with a top 5 pick, provided you make the correct decision. 

 

Would I be opposed to trading down within the top 10? Not necessarily as this draft is probably strong enough at the top...but this could be the Kerrigan/Watt dilemma all over again. Quality > Quantity. 

 

Witherspoon went 5th overall last year and was the best player on that Seahawks D when they played this team. 

 

Thibodeaux

Ja'Mar Chase

Tua/Herbert

Devin White

Bradley Chubb

 

If you aren't terrible, you can find an All-Pro. 

 

Definitely not a no brainer.  

 

The trade down years back gave us Ryan Kerrigan and Jervis Jenkins.  Jenkins was the bonus player to pass over Watt.

 

We trade down to take Crowder to let the Seakwaks get Lockett.

 

Traded down to get Murphy and forgot who else so the Cowboys to get Demarcus Lawrence.

 

We had that trade back with Vinny to give us three 2nd rounders to get Davis, Kelley, Thomas.

 

The ony winner was the last one.  Howell, Robinson, Dotson.  Olave is a better player than Dotson but clearly right now its a winning deal.

 

This team lacks elite players so I get the idea of just grab potentially an elite player for a change.  That's the reason why i am not trading off of Marvin Harrison Jr., if that's who lands at our pick.  But if not him its interesting.  Bowers is potentially elite.  But TE isn't a premium position.  Fashanu is potentially elite too but isn't IMO as close to slam dunk as Bowers amnd Harrison.  And Fauga IMO if they can get in a trade down could be as good of a RT as Fashanu is a LT.

 

But to your point, it was one of Cooley's beefs for years with this roster, no elite game changing players and he goes those type of players bolster the confidence of the whole team.    

 

9 minutes ago, Panninho said:

If we draft at 3, you'd also have to think about taking a QB. Especially if e.g. the Cardinals/Bears draft before us and stick with their QBs (which I do not expect, but still). I am not down on Howell by any means but if Maye or Williams are realistic options, a conversation needs to be had. 5 years of rookie salary with a top-end QB prospect...I could see a GM opting for that and everything should be on the table for the new front office.

You might be able to trade up from 3 without giving up the farm because that would ensure the other team a shot at MHJ. So it could make sense.

 

Anyways, it would be an awesome year to pick top 3.

 

I've talked about that in other threads.  I think its fantasy that one of those QBs fall to 3.  I know an occasional mock has Marvin Harrison squeeze into the top 2 but I don't buy that happening.  Even on the wild off chance lets say the Cards or Bears pass over a QB, I'd think they'd trade the pick.  Almost all indications are the Cards and Bears would take the QB.

 

But yeah if it becomes one of the more shocking drafts in memory and one of those guys drop, I'd take him.  

Edited November 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise