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The Game Prediction Thread - Week 3 - The Commanders vs. The Bills

zCommander

By zCommander
in The Stadium

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ExoDus84

ExoDus84

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Posted

The Bills are still an upper-echelon team, and we are a young upstart on the rise. Going to be a tough one, and I think the Bills take it this week.

 

Buffalo 27

Good Guys: 20

 

Hot take: Cheeseman misses a snap so bad it hits Slye in the private parts, who then has to go to short term IR.

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Bills reporter just on 106.7, predicts a Bills win.  Said the difference is the Bills have better depth and while he likes Howell -- Josh Allen is better.  Pretty sad that he mentioned this team's long snapper as maybe something that helps the Bills earn a win.

I mean, I would expect him to project a win.

 

Big sad face emoji on the long snapper issue.

 

Though, on the bright side, if the Long Snapper is in play, it's a close game.  

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skinny21

skinny21

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43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Bills reporter just on 106.7, predicts a Bills win.  Said the difference is the Bills have better depth and while he likes Howell -- Josh Allen is better.  Pretty sad that he mentioned this team's long snapper as maybe something that helps the Bills earn a win.

Ok, so I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this is going to sounds bananas….

 

 

I read that second sentence and was like yep.  What’s crazy is that I then stopped myself and thought… wait, are we sure those two things are true though?  I mean, it sounds so ridiculous to compare the two qbs, and the Bills have a top notch roster as evidenced by their success.

Now, I just woke up to be fair, but off the top of my head, the two most obvious, unquestionable separators between Allen and Howell are Allen’s success - record, winning big games, etc., and the height advantage.  And then of course experience makes a big difference.  But looking at the rest, the facets that make up a qb - deep ball passing, tight window throws, arm strength, running ability, mental toughness, character/work ethic and so on… is it that cut and dry? (It probably is, and I’m probably being a pathetic, still half asleep homer about it, lol).  To be clear though, I’m still betting on Allen 10 out of 10 times.  If I look at Howell’s growth to this point and what he’s shown, and then think about him with a year or two under his belt in this offense… I can see a world where that bet changes.  Can’t really believe I’m even entertaining the thought. 

 

As to depth, I can’t really speak to the Bills depth, but I can say that I like most of our depth - receiver, DT, de, rb, qb, Lucas is a capable tackle, Reaves and DJ are pretty solid vets.  Bates and Turner look capable and Hodges is intriguing.  I like Stromberg’s potential, and while they haven’t performed, I still like the potential of Butler, Martin and Chris Paul.  LB is the one spot with both questionable starters and backups.

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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5 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

As to depth, I can’t really speak to the Bills depth,

Remember, we lost Tim Settle to the bills.  Since he's LITERALLY as good as Aaron Donald (if you believe the hyperventilating which occurred on the board when he left) the Bills CLEARLY have better depth.  Probably across the board JUST because they have Time Settle.  

4 minutes ago, stoshuaj said:

^ go back to bed

Thats Not Very Nice GIFs | Tenor

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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3 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

PFF has apparently forgotten there are 10 other players on offense and 11 on defense, which play for the Commanders.

 

It’s amazing how every year PFF morphs more into just the idiotic mouthpiece Chris Collinsworth.  This is totally something he would say on the air and it would be stupid for him to say it.

 

No, I’m not watching the video unless somebody tells me it has actual, good, solid football breakdowns.  Then I would.

 

The headline is really stupid.  
 

and no @Califan007 The Constipated I didn’t get fired from PFF. They kicked my cat.  :P 

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Koolblue13

Koolblue13

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Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

PFF has apparently forgotten there are 10 other players on offense and 11 on defense, which play for the Commanders.

 

It’s amazing how every year PFF morphs more into just the idiotic mouthpiece Chris Collinsworth.  This is totally something he would say on the air and it would be stupid for him to say it.

 

No, I’m not watching the video unless somebody tells me it has actual, good, solid football breakdowns.  Then I would.

 

The headline is really stupid.  
 

and no @Califan007 The Constipated I didn’t get fired from PFF. They kicked my cat.  :P 

What's wrong with PFF?

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zCommander

zCommander

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44 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

PFF has apparently forgotten there are 10 other players on offense and 11 on defense, which play for the Commanders.

 

It’s amazing how every year PFF morphs more into just the idiotic mouthpiece Chris Collinsworth.  This is totally something he would say on the air and it would be stupid for him to say it.

 

No, I’m not watching the video unless somebody tells me it has actual, good, solid football breakdowns.  Then I would.

 

The headline is really stupid.  
 

and no @Califan007 The Constipated I didn’t get fired from PFF. They kicked my cat.  :P 

 

You need to watch it. It is more than just about Howell. You will like what they said about TH as well lol

PFF_Steve took the Commanders to win, as in the whole team not just Howell. :) 

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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Posted

Bills (1-1) at Commanders (2-0)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -6.5 (43.5)

Storyline to watch: Sunday's game will come down to who wins the battle outside the pocket: Bills quarterback Josh Allen or Washington's defense? Washington has allowed 16 dropbacks to be extended outside the pocket -- second most in the NFL -- but ranks fourth in completion percentage on those plays (33.3%). Meanwhile, Allen has thrown three touchdowns while outside the pocket -- tied for first in the NFL -- and has thrown for the fifth-most yards (79). -- John Keim

Bold prediction: The two teams will combine for at least 10 sacks. The Commanders are tied for the league lead in sacks with 10, but they have also given up 10 sacks (tied for second most). So, the Bills will have an opportunity to increase their sack total from three. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills have won eight of nine matchups against the Commanders since losing Super Bowl XXVI following the 1991 season. Seven of those eight wins have been by double digits (their only loss was on road in Week 15 of 2015).

Matchup X factor: Commanders cornerback Kendall Fuller. He's off to a hot start with just a 9% target rate -- best among all corners with at least 50 coverage snaps -- and 0.2 yards per coverage snap allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats. If the Commanders are going to beat the Bills, stopping the Buffalo pass game will be key. -- Walder

Injuries: Bills | Commanders

What to know for fantasy: The Commanders have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Buffalo WR Stefon Diggs has 17 receptions for 242 yards and a touchdown in two games at Washington. See Week 3 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: Sam Howell is 2-0 outright as an underdog in his career. Read more.

Moody's pick: Bills 27, Commanders 21
Walder's pick: Bills 33, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 73.4% (by an average of 8.8 points)

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38448647/nfl-week-3-picks-schedule-fantasy-football-odds-injuries-stats-2023

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NoCalMike

NoCalMike

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This game is definitely going to be a big test, but one thing I would say is that the Bills through 2 games don't look like their best version which is very common during the month of September.  They look like a good team still trying to figure it out and knock the offseason rust off.


Also, though conversations in online spaces about this game, just about every single Bills fan/media member are approaching their thoughts on this game as if they are going up against the 2021 team and not the 2023 team.  They clearly don't know much about the current squad that wasn't around back in 2021, and are sort of looking past this game at Miami. 

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skinny21

skinny21

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33 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

This game is definitely going to be a big test, but one thing I would say is that the Bills through 2 games don't look like their best version which is very common during the month of September.  They look like a good team still trying to figure it out and knock the offseason rust off.

Seems to be the case.  Of course, I feel similarly about Washington (we’re not playing our best ball yet), though instead of rust, it’s growing within the system… and of course the D has to get going before the 2nd half.

12 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I can't shake the feeling we can beat the Bills but also cannot shake the feeling we are due to come back to earth after 2 barely wins.

Pretty much where I’m at.  Allen, Diggs, Cook, their ability to play balanced offense, a tough secondary, and the pressure/sacks we’re allowing… those concerns make me pretty apprehensive for this one.

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I mean, I would expect him to project a win.

 

Big sad face emoji on the long snapper issue.

 

Though, on the bright side, if the Long Snapper is in play, it's a close game.  

 

The Bills are the better team so I didn't expect otherwise either.  But a bit wacky when the opposing media sees that a shaky long snapper as an X factor that might help them win a close game

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NoVaSkins21

NoVaSkins21

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37 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I can't shake the feeling we can beat the Bills but also cannot shake the feeling we are due to come back to earth after 2 barely wins.

This team can easily can be beaten by Buffalo if they don't execute on both sides of the ball.  However, this team hasn't put 4 quarters of football together either.  Anything is possible.

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RandyHolt

RandyHolt

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, NoVaSkins21 said:

This team can easily can be beaten by Buffalo if they don't execute on both sides of the ball.  However, this team hasn't put 4 quarters of football together either.  Anything is possible.

Thinking more here - have the books and experts considered our shiny new  X Card, the home field advantage... dare I think we actually have a home field advantage this season. It used to be home field was good for +3 points in our non-overrun stadiums. Our own players were demoralized mentally just jogging out onto the field every week seeing away fans had taken over. I contend our overrun home field was unprecedented in modern NFL history and maybe all of sports so our home field was more like -3. We are currently +6.5 and that seems too high. F the Bills we can beat them.

 

Its more than the home field, the entire organization has been energized and reborn. Heck even Tuddy went ballistic during the presidents run at the Nats Game last night.

 

I think it was smart seeing the heavy marketing blitz at Nats park last night.

Edited by RandyHolt
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