Going Commando Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said: Where we disagree is on elevating someone who didn't have a strong supporting cast but also played a JV level of competition. No the WRs weren't great but their level of competition was laughable so to me that evens out. You keep saying this and it feels like you don't realize that the ACC was actually pretty good and that Washington played one of the worst slates of defenses in the country this year. That conference was all offense, and their OOC schedule was against some of the worst defenses in the country. They only played two good defenses this year in Oregon and Utah. The ACC had six defenses in the top 30, twice as many as the SEC. If you're gonna crap on Caleb Williams or Drake Maye for their competition, that blade cuts Michael Penix too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDawg Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, Going Commando said: You keep saying this and it feels like you don't realize that the ACC was actually pretty good and that Washington played one of the worst slates of defenses in the country this year. That conference was all offense, and their OOC schedule was against some of the worst defenses in the country. They only played two good defenses this year in Oregon and Utah. The ACC had six defenses in the top 30, twice as many as the SEC. If you're gonna crap on Caleb Williams or Drake Maye for their competition, that blade cuts Michael Penix too. I think this is fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said: Trevor flopped this year, big reason they are not in playoffs. No he didn't. He got severe ankle and shoulder injuries and tried playing through them to keep his team from falling apart. Before he got hurt in that Monday Night game against the Bengals, they were 8-3 and in a battle for the one seed. Lawrence is in no way a flop for Jacksonville. They don't have an ounce of doubt about him being the guy for them, and when he's eligible for an extension, they're going to give him a mega contact. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsfan66 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 hours ago, e16bball said: I think one of the major problems is that we have a lot of folks (not just you) comparing a guy who is in his 6th year of college football — 5th year as a starter — to a guy in his 2nd year as a starter. Perhaps it’s worth asking how Michael Penix looked in his second year as a college starter (3rd overall). You’d have to go all the way back to a time when they were playing in empty stadiums. No one was calling him a surefire top 5 pick back in 2020, and not a soul considered him one of the best prospects in the past decade, as many are saying about Maye at the same stage in his career. The trick here is that we aren’t trying to figure out who was the best player this past season. That’s for the Heisman voters. What we’re trying to do is figure out who is the best bet to be a star in the NFL five years from now. Those are both very complicated questions — but for the specific mystery we’re trying to solve, the fact that Penix/Daniels/Nix are all 2-3 years further along the development curve than Williams/Maye is a really substantial clue. Then you have to look at them coming out of HS. Those 3 were they 5 star or did they make a name for themselves over time? Maye could have gone to Bama but he chose NC. was always looked at as a blue chip recruit don't know about other 3. Family of blue chippers went to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 IF ... huge IF Harbaugh is the hire and he really wants McCarthy at QB, we could conceivably trade down once, if not twice. Not sure that's a reality. But an interesting option should Harbaugh actually be the HC hire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsfan66 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Going Commando said: No he didn't. He got severe ankle and shoulder injuries and tried playing through them to keep his team from falling apart. Before he got hurt in that Monday Night game against the Bengals, they were 8-3 and in a battle for the one seed. Lawrence is in no way a flop for Jacksonville. They don't have an ounce of doubt about him being the guy for them, and when he's eligible for an extension, they're going to give him a mega contact. This year he is, A big reason they are sitting at home for the playoffs. He threw 2 INT's yesterday to seal the deal. Went from playoffs to.. ... played more like his rookie year. Injuries came the last 2/3 games , concussion was late it game after missing wide open WR,s the whole game. QBR rank was no.24. PFF 13, last time someone posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatNFLChick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Going Commando said: You keep saying this and it feels like you don't realize that the ACC was actually pretty good and that Washington played one of the worst slates of defenses in the country this year. That conference was all offense, and their OOC schedule was against some of the worst defenses in the country. They only played two good defenses this year in Oregon and Utah. The ACC had six defenses in the top 30, twice as many as the SEC. If you're gonna crap on Caleb Williams or Drake Maye for their competition, that blade cuts Michael Penix too. That is fair (thought I was talking about Maye more than Caleb). However in 2022 nobody's strength of schedule was easier than Maye's and its probably not coincidental that Maye statistically got worse, across the board, when he wasn't playing a cupcake schedule (and it still wasn't even a difficult schedule in 2023). Penix showed up against a top defense last week, balled out and if he does the same today (which Maye never did) then they're not really in the same conversation It also makes the Justin Herbert comparisons weird - Justin faced tougher competition and got better from his junior year to his senior year and was MVP of the Rose Bowl. Edited January 8 by ThatNFLChick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 55 minutes ago, KDawg said: Yeah, I'm not sure what to take from any of it. Lessons have been learned the last few years in QB evals for me, and I'm struggling with applying everything... Mostly because not all of it actually matters. I get it. There is an information overload for QBs because of the stakes attached to evaluating the position, and the rubrics get warped by all kinds of biases resulting from NFL outcomes heavily determined by situations and contingencies outside of the prospect's control. But this year we can relax because we got the second pick in a class where there are at least two bonafide stud prospects who made it to draft season healthy. We can take one of them and feel totally confident in our choice, in a way that only a couple of other teams in the past decade have been able to feel when they've done the same. I'm typically just as skeptical and pessimistic about this franchise as anyone, but after yesterday, I'm partying. I know as well as anyone that we still have a lot of work to do, and that drafting Drake Maye doesn't fix us. But it gives us an incredible opportunity. It gets us the hardest piece of the entire build to acquire, a QB with elite upside. We were so incredibly lucky with how 2023 played out, and it feels good to be the recipient of good fortune. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Skins199021 said: My biggest concern with Maye is two things that are exactly like Howell. He makes some extremely boneheaded throws that end as interceptions and he can be very slow to make the next read (beyond the first one) I don't agree with the second criticism of Maye, I think his instincts are fantastic and he reads coverages and finds his options super well, despite being under pressure a lot. But for the first one, did you see Josh Allen's game yesterday? The Drake Maye ride is nowhere near as wild as the Josh Allen one, but the playmaking ability is similar. Guys like that, you take those lapses and INTs because the next drive they're making spectacular scrambles and throws that win you the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philibusters Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, KDawg said: I'm not sure if I think he is or isn't yet. Tonight will say a lot. I think Penix deserves more credit for the Huskies receiving best OL award and having three good receivers. Though to the point, I think you have to give those receivers credit, too. Williams looked human this year without Jordan Addison. Who elevated who there? I'd say it's a wash. I think they both helped each other. Addison is a good pro but I think Williams made him look better. USC's Bowl game didn't help Williams case for elevating talent, but then again Bowl Season is a mess and doesn't matter much. Maye... that I can buy a bit more. He has nothing besides Tez. His OL is absolute garbage, I don't think USC's is as bad as UNC's. That's what I keep coming back to with Maye. He had a really, really **** cast around him and still was good. Addison actually had his most impressive season with Kenny Pickett at Pitt. before he transferred to USC. I think Addison did make Pickett look a little better than he was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsfan66 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 20 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said: IF ... huge IF Harbaugh is the hire and he really wants McCarthy at QB, we could conceivably trade down once, if not twice. Not sure that's a reality. But an interesting option should Harbaugh actually be the HC hire. McCarthy does he have any top WR's? Michigan likes to run the ball? If they win tonight McCarthy has a good game inters the draft anything is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatNFLChick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 One other reason I've done about a complete 360 on Michael Penix Jr. is the character factor. He was about ready to quit football after suffering all those major injuries at Indiana and instead of giving up, he chose to transfer and persevere. I highly, highly respect him for that and all else because I don't think I would have done the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sacks 'n' Stuff Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Chump Bailey said: One other reason I've done about a complete 360 on Michael Penix Jr. is the character factor. 180 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 23 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said: 180 LOL, thanks. I always do that for some damn reason. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatNFLChick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Thought this was interesting. McVay talking about what player fits best with the offense he wants to run and why he wanted Puka 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always A Commander Never A Captain Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said: That is fair (thought I was talking about Maye more than Caleb). However in 2022 nobody's strength of schedule was easier than Maye's and its probably not coincidental that Maye statistically got worse, across the board, when he wasn't playing a cupcake schedule (and it still wasn't even a difficult schedule in 2023). Penix showed up against a top defense last week, balled out and if he does the same today (which Maye never did) then they're not really in the same conversation It also makes the Justin Herbert comparisons weird - Justin faced tougher competition and got better from his junior year to his senior year and was MVP of the Rose Bowl. Huh, that's really interesting. That puts Maye's fantastic 2022 season into perspective. Especially given what seems to be a similar SoS in 2023. Does ESPN's FPI have 2023 numbers we can check, I'm sure each website as their own methodology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always A Commander Never A Captain Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 From PFR's family of websites, this is what they say for these stats. SRS -- Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. SOS -- Strength of Schedule; a rating of strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Basically, SRS number can grow faster the higher your SOS is, if you still perform well. If you're wondering if the numbers can go negative, yes, they definitely can. Color coded with Green showing whose faced the strongest competition this season, and then the SRS from that. 2022 2023 Drake Maye SRS 5.52 6.00 SOS 1.95 1.62 <-2023 is Inflated a little for Maye as he did not play in the Bowl game Jayden Daniels SRS 13.29 14.66 SOS 6.14 4.58 <-2023 is Inflated a little for Daniels as he did not play in the Bowl game Caleb Williams SRS 12.13 9.87 SOS 3.49 5.79 <-2023 is Inflated a little for Caleb as he did not play in the Bowl game Michael Penix SRS 11.56 19.11 <-Not final numbers as the Championship is tonight. SOS 0.64 6.83 <-Not final numbers as the Championship is tonight. Bo Nix SRS 13.44 20.29 SOS 3.67 3.65 <-He played in the Bowl game There have been champions with SOS around Daniels 2022 or Caleb's 2023, but as you can see from their low SRS given the high multiplier SOS, those teams were not close to the best that season. Past few champ winners: Champ Winner SRS SOS 2022 - Georgia 25.48 6.28 2021 - Georgia 24.62 5.62 2020 - Alabama 30.26 9.72 <-Shortened season inflated a lot of these numbers 2019 - LSU 25.8 6.6 2018 - Clemson 26.45 5.19 Michigan's SRS this season is 23.88 (so far) off of an SOS of 4.59 (so far). Michigan has the #1 D in the country. Washington's SRS being below 20 at this point is due to their defense being 54th! None of the other champion winners listed had a defense out of the Top 20. So this is entirely from Penix and that offense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiscoBob Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said: 180 Hey look.... hindsight is always 50 / 50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins199021 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said: From PFR's family of websites, this is what they say for these stats. SRS -- Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. SOS -- Strength of Schedule; a rating of strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Basically, SRS number can grow faster the higher your SOS is, if you still perform well. If you're wondering if the numbers can go negative, yes, they definitely can. Color coded with Green showing whose faced the strongest competition this season, and then the SRS from that. 2022 2023 Drake Maye SRS 5.52 6.00 SOS 1.95 1.62 <-2023 is Inflated a little for Maye as he did not play in the Bowl game Jayden Daniels SRS 13.29 14.66 SOS 6.14 4.58 <-2023 is Inflated a little for Daniels as he did not play in the Bowl game Caleb Williams SRS 12.13 9.87 SOS 3.49 5.79 <-2023 is Inflated a little for Caleb as he did not play in the Bowl game Michael Penix SRS 11.56 19.11 <-Not final numbers as the Championship is tonight. SOS 0.64 6.83 <-Not final numbers as the Championship is tonight. Bo Nix SRS 13.44 20.29 SOS 3.67 3.65 <-He played in the Bowl game There have been champions with SOS around Daniels 2022 or Caleb's 2023, but as you can see from their low SRS given the high multiplier SOS, those teams were not close to the best that season. Past few champ winners: Champ Winner SRS SOS 2022 - Georgia 25.48 6.28 2021 - Georgia 24.62 5.62 2020 - Alabama 30.26 9.72 <-Shortened season inflated a lot of these numbers 2019 - LSU 25.8 6.6 2018 - Clemson 26.45 5.19 Michigan's SRS this season is 23.88 (so far) off of an SOS of 4.59 (so far). Michigan has the #1 D in the country. Washington's SRS being below 20 at this point is due to their defense being 54th! None of the other champion winners listed had a defense out of the Top 20. So this is entirely from Penix and that offense. Nice find! Confirms what I had already thought. I mean not too much research is needed to know the ACC is trash in football especially if Clemson is a crap team My problem with Maye is we aren’t discounting what you would think would be inflated stats against a soft schedule Instead some are trying to justify why he had decent numbers against a very soft schedule That scares me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingdaddy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said: IF ... huge IF Harbaugh is the hire and he really wants McCarthy at QB, we could conceivably trade down once, if not twice. Not sure that's a reality. But an interesting option should Harbaugh actually be the HC hire. Yep...trade with NE at #3 then trade again with Vegas and pick up two more 1sts next year. We then own the 2025 draft and can continue to move around if we want and add to the 2026 draft. Not saying this would be my plan but I wouldn't rip the plan if Harbaugh was convinced his guy has the tools to be the man here. New England gets Maye. Vegas takes Daniels and the NYG get none of the big 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, kingdaddy said: Yep...trade with NE at #3 then trade again with Vegas and pick up two more 1sts next year. We then own the 2025 draft and can continue to move around if we want and add to the 2026 draft. Not saying this would be my plan but I wouldn't rip the plan if Harbaugh was convinced his guy has the tools to be the man here. New England gets Maye. Vegas takes Daniels and the NYG get none of the big 3. We cant end up with no QB. Thatd be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo#44 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWinzit Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said: At least he didn't gush over him. I'd be happy if none of the new hires and potential new hires gush over any one of the QBs. The last thing we need right now is more telegraphing of plans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatNFLChick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Spielman on McCarthy and Penix https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-cfp-scouting-preview-michael-penix-jr-j-j-mccarthy-will-decide-championship/ Spielman also offered his thoughts on Daniels (this is from November so before the season was over and he won the Heisman) https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-lsus-jayden-daniels-joins-top-3-qb-conversation/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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