What's the most important QB stat for our next QB?

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, El Mexican said:

 

It is?

 

Data obtained directly from NFL.com, friend.

Those two guys are on top with the minimum of 100 pass attempts.

And that’s why you lost me with your theory of YPA.

 

Darnold #2 is a death sentence to the theory.

 

The answer is: it’s no one statistic unless that stat is wins. But even then it’s never isolated. 
 

I think a better stat for QB succsss than YPA is owner win %.

Edited March 2, 2023 by KDawg

[El Mexican]

2 hours ago, Jumbo said:

Seriously?

 

 

Hey, it's the offseason.

51 minutes ago, KDawg said:

And that’s why you lost me with your theory of YPA.

 

Darnold #2 is a death sentence to the theory.

 

The answer is: it’s no one statistic unless that stat is wins. But even then it’s never isolated. 
 

I think a better stat for QB succsss than YPA is owner win %.

 

Ok, it's not an infallible theory, but the rest of the list is pretty strong.

 

Mahomes - 8.1, Purdy - 8.1, Hurts - 8, Jimmy G - 7.9, Tannehill - 7.8, Dalton - 7.6, Goff - 7.6, Josh Allen - 7.6 and Geno - 7.5  

 

 

[Jumbo]

9 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

 

Hey, it's the offseason

 

 

My caveman post was directed at one of my all time fave ES posters, Riggo-toni, for one of his occasional dips into jr. high school humor or sexist jokes depending on your druthers.😉

 

He usually keeps it in that tailgate which is preferred but not redeeming. But it doesn't tarnish his overall greatness and it's a minor picadillo. He often notes my complete perfection in thinking and behavior so I'm forgiving while still jabbing at him about it.

 

Btw, this sort of stuff is all totally on topic when I do it. 😁😁😇😛

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, El Mexican said:

 

Hey, it's the offseason.

 

Ok, it's not an infallible theory, but the rest of the list is pretty strong.

 

Mahomes - 8.1, Purdy - 8.1, Hurts - 8, Jimmy G - 7.9, Tannehill - 7.8, Dalton - 7.6, Goff - 7.6, Josh Allen - 7.6 and Geno - 7.5  

 

 

 

You're going to be hard pressed to find any serious football person who would put Jimmy G, Tannehill, Dalton, and Goff in even the same country code as guys like Mahomes and Allen, let alone above.

 

Honestly, I feel like you went out and found one of the few stats that show Heinicke as anything but poor and then decided to use that, despite the fact that it literally has Sam Darnold above Patrick Mahomes.

Edited March 2, 2023 by mistertim

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

 

Honestly, I feel like you went out and found one of the few stats that show Heinicke as anything but poor and then decided to use that, despite the fact that it literally has Sam Darnold above Patrick Mahomes.

 

Bingo

[Skinsinparadise]

 

If this is about Heinicke, Sheehan poking around on the issue said he thinks he likely is a goner.  But will see.

 

QB -- so many variables matter.    If I had to pick a cheating code, PFF granted who is far from the be all and end all digests a QB on all of their metrics and if your QB isn't top 30 but instead 60 and beyond its bad.

 

PFF judges based on various variables but i know the big ones are:  adjusted completion percentage (judging accuracy) interceptible passes (passes thrown in harms way) and the number of big time throws (successfully threading the needle and pushing the ball down the field).

 

For me i can deal with QBs who lack accuracy chops like Wentz and Heinicke if they have mobility.  The reason why i was out on Wentz early on was it was easy to see his mobility was gone.

 

Accuracy, arm strength, off platform throws, mobility, ability to make players with pressure.

 

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

Oh no another QB thread is about to explode on us. Please make it stop mods. 

[mhd24]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If this is about Heinicke, Sheehan poking around on the issue said he thinks he likely is a goner.  But will see.

 

QB -- so many variables matter.    If I had to pick a cheating code, PFF granted who is far from the be all and end all digests a QB on all of their metrics and if your QB isn't top 30 but instead 60 and beyond its bad.

 

PFF judges based on various variables but i know the big ones are:  adjusted completion percentage (judging accuracy) interceptible passes (passes thrown in harms way) and the number of big time throws (successfully threading the needle and pushing the ball down the field).

 

For me i can deal with QBs who lack accuracy chops like Wentz and Heinicke if they have mobility.  The reason why i was out on Wentz early on was it was easy to see his mobility was gone.

 

Accuracy, arm strength, off platform throws, mobility, ability to make players with pressure.

 

 

What did Sheehan exactly say?

[Darth Tater]

19 hours ago, El Mexican said:

There's a lot of discussion around the web about this subject.

 

From really complex indexes to the 50 year-old passer rating system the NFL uses.

 

I've always viewed either Yards per Attempt (YPA) or Yards per Completion (YPC) as the most relevant indicator of a good QB.

The higher the number the more probability we have of a balanced game-plan since our QB is passing the right amount of times and doing some damage on the opposing D.

No dinks and doinks that serve no purpose but to artificially inflate the total completion %. 

 

Case in point with QBs who had at least 100 pass attempts during 2022:

 

Tua T led the League with 8.9 YPA

Sam Darnold - 8.2

Mahomes - 8.1

Purdy - 8.1

Hurts - 8

Jimmy G - 7.9

Tannehill - 7.8

Dalton - 7.6

Goff - 7.6

Josh Allen - 7.6

Geno - 7.5  

 

TH finished about middle of the pack with 7.2 YPA and Wentz was one of the worst at 6.4.

 

It's a simple stat and I firmly believe if we want to have any success around here we should take it seriously

 

I always think in terms of YPC but some of that is bias because I like the real passing game of guys like Joe Gibbs. Completion % is big to me only in terms of how many yards those completions got and how likely you were to get those yards. I also tend to look at TD to attempts ratios and interceptions to attempts ratios (don't like giving up cheap points to the other team or losing out on points you should score). Of course, in the end, its how many offensive wins (put up more than a net 21 points) that mean the most to me.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

What did Sheehan exactly say?

More or less that he believes they will allow Heinicke to test the market suggesting that he wants more than what they are willing to pay, and  he thinks the outcome is Heinicke gets more elsewhere and likely moves on 

[mhd24]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

More or less that he believes they will allow Heinicke to test the market suggesting that he wants more than what they are willing to pay, and  he thinks the outcome is Heinicke gets more elsewhere and likely moves on 

Ah cool.  Thanks.  I think they are going ultra cheap and will target someone like Keenum as a cheap vet with a late round qb flier type as a developmental project

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Ah cool.  Thanks.  I think they are going ultra cheap and will target someone like Keenum as a cheap vet with a late round qb flier type as a developmental project

 

I wonder what qualifies as "ultra cheap" though. I'd think Heinicke would be in that tier, but it sounds like he thinks he's worth more. 

[Riggo-toni]

58 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Oh no another QB thread is about to explode on us. Please make it stop mods. 

Hey, why do you think I went all "caveman"?🤪

[FootballZombie]

Re-living that PFF ranking is like 'Nam all over again.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

Ah cool.  Thanks.  I think they are going ultra cheap and will target someone like Keenum as a cheap vet with a late round qb flier type as a developmental project

 

He said he thought 3-5 million range

[philibusters]

EPA (Expected Pointed Added) is probably the best QB stat

[El Mexican]

6 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

You're going to be hard pressed to find any serious football person who would put Jimmy G, Tannehill, Dalton, and Goff in even the same country code as guys like Mahomes and Allen, let alone above.

 

Honestly, I feel like you went out and found one of the few stats that show Heinicke as anything but poor and then decided to use that, despite the fact that it literally has Sam Darnold above Patrick Mahomes.

 

Nah bro, I could give two hoots about TH. He's middle of the pack and nowhere near any of these guys (sadly for us Wentz ranks at the very bottom in this category).

 

We can slice it another way, though, if you really want to:

 

YPA with at least 200 pass attemps according to NFL.com

 

Tua - 8.9

Mahomes - 8.1

Hurts - 8

Jimmy G - 7.9

Tannehill - 7.8

Dalton - 7.6

Goff - 7.6

Allen - 7.6

Geno - 7.5

Mariota - 7.4

 

If you guys have an easy and clear numerical indicator for good QB play I'm all ears. For ME, this is the most telling one.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, El Mexican said:

 

Nah bro, I could give two hoots about TH. He's middle of the pack and nowhere near any of these guys (sadly for us Wentz ranks at the very bottom in this category).

 

We can slice it another way, though, if you really want to:

 

YPA with at least 200 pass attemps according to NFL.com

 

Tua - 8.9

Mahomes - 8.1

Hurts - 8

Jimmy G - 7.9

Tannehill - 7.8

Dalton - 7.6

Goff - 7.6

Allen - 7.6

Geno - 7.5

Mariota - 7.4

 

If you guys have an easy and clear numerical indicator for good QB play I'm all ears. For ME, this is the most telling one.

There isn’t one. 

[El Mexican]

6 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

Bingo

 

Ok now you're making me laugh 😆

 

If TH survives the offseason good for him.

I'm on the Howell train now. At least the kid showed some good throwing instinct in the season finale.

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If this is about Heinicke, Sheehan poking around on the issue said he thinks he likely is a goner.  But will see.

 

QB -- so many variables matter.    If I had to pick a cheating code, PFF granted who is far from the be all and end all digests a QB on all of their metrics and if your QB isn't top 30 but instead 60 and beyond its bad.

 

PFF judges based on various variables but i know the big ones are:  adjusted completion percentage (judging accuracy) interceptible passes (passes thrown in harms way) and the number of big time throws (successfully threading the needle and pushing the ball down the field).

 

For me i can deal with QBs who lack accuracy chops like Wentz and Heinicke if they have mobility.  The reason why i was out on Wentz early on was it was easy to see his mobility was gone.

 

Accuracy, arm strength, off platform throws, mobility, ability to make players with pressure.

 

 

 

Yes, lots of indexes and metrics all around the web. No one seems to agree on the most important stat for QB play.

 

 

[Hazel-Ra]

23 hours ago, GhostofSparta said:

Terry McLaurin targets

Terry McLaurin catches

Terry McLaurin yards

Terry McLaurin TDs

 

You’re not wrong!

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, El Mexican said:

 

Nah bro, I could give two hoots about TH. He's middle of the pack and nowhere near any of these guys (sadly for us Wentz ranks at the very bottom in this category).

 

We can slice it another way, though, if you really want to:

 

YPA with at least 200 pass attemps according to NFL.com

 

Tua - 8.9

Mahomes - 8.1

Hurts - 8

Jimmy G - 7.9

Tannehill - 7.8

Dalton - 7.6

Goff - 7.6

Allen - 7.6

Geno - 7.5

Mariota - 7.4

 

If you guys have an easy and clear numerical indicator for good QB play I'm all ears. For ME, this is the most telling one.

 

TH isn't a middle of the pack QB, he's a passable backup. And like @KDawgsaid, there isn't a single easy and clear numerical indictor for good QB play. If there were, scouts would be out of a job and PFF would go bankrupt.

 

As far as your list: do you think Jimmy G, Tannehill, Dalton, and Goff are better QBs than Josh Allen? You also can't just magically remove Sam Darnold from being above Mahomes in this list and think nobody noticed.

Edited March 3, 2023 by mistertim

[duffy]

Hand size. 

[GhostofSparta]

8 minutes ago, duffy said:

Hand size. 

Please God no. I live near Pittsburgh and had to hear about Kenny Pickett and his ****ing hand size for the last year.

 

[El Mexican]

11 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

TH isn't a middle of the pack QB, he's a passable backup. And like @KDawgsaid, there isn't a single easy and clear numerical indictor for good QB play. If there were, scouts would be out of a job and PFF would go bankrupt.

 

As far as your list: do you think Jimmy G, Tannehill, Dalton, and Goff are better QBs than Josh Allen? You also can't just magically remove Sam Darnold from being above Mahomes in this list and think nobody noticed.

 

Right. I told y'all that the stat is pretty solid even if you slice it to 200 pass attempts.

You can go from there to 300, 400, or 600 pass attempts.

 

As I said before, I could care less about TH and this particular stat. As you said, he's a backup.

 

I'm thinking about our NEXT QB. 

 

And yes,  I would put Jimmy G, Tannehill, Dalton, Goff and Josh Allen in the same bag.

Their small statistical spread is linked to their supporting cast of players.

[mistertim]

20 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

 

And yes,  I would put Jimmy G, Tannehill, Dalton, Goff and Josh Allen in the same bag.

 

 

That's certainly a...take.

Edited March 3, 2023 by mistertim