PeterMP Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Just now, Ball Security said: Haley winning in FFX is illustrative of how blue the county is. Trump had 130k more votes than Biden statewide. What’s going to happen to Trump’s chances when the extra 450k FFX voters come out for the general? Biden won 70% of the FFX vote in 2020. He's going to lose. But he can lose VA and win the GE easily. In fact, if he manages to win VA that pretty much makes him a lock to win the GE. For the Dems to win, VA has to essentially be a no contest state. If the Dems even really have to compete in VA, that alone is a win for the GOP. I'm not claiming that the primary results show that Trump is going to win the VA GE and more than the 2016 primary results showed he was going to win VA in the GE. But by any reasonable measure, it was a strong showing by Trump. And extra voters are going to come out in every district in the GE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) Still expect Biden to land at the 276-292 range come November. Maybe a high of 303 if he can win Arizona again. Showing how dumb the EC is that the single worst President in history wins 235ish EC without trying. Edited March 6 by The Evil Genius 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ball Security Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 19 minutes ago, PeterMP said: He's going to lose. But he can lose VA and win the GE easily. In fact, if he manages to win VA that pretty much makes him a lock to win the GE. For the Dems to win, VA has to essentially be a no contest state. If the Dems even really have to compete in VA, that alone is a win for the GOP. I'm not claiming that the primary results show that Trump is going to win the VA GE and more than the 2016 primary results showed he was going to win VA in the GE. But by any reasonable measure, it was a strong showing by Trump. And extra voters are going to come out in every district in the GE. I don’t think I’d necessarily say that a 30%+ decrease in Republican primary turnout from 2016 is a strong showing. I’d say that Biden has a better chance at picking off NC than Trump has winning VA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) @Ball Security What VA's primary tells me is that VA is blue, but even in an open primary there isn't enough anti-Trump support out there to turn VA to Haley. If there was widespread anti-Trump vote in the GOP and right leaning Republicans, then I suspect that primary is much closer. And that signals trouble for Trump. That's good news for Trump. (The GE is almost certainly going to be close. And how it goes will depend on this summer/early fall. If the economy stays strong and things are at least reasonably stable in the ME and with Israel and Palestine that benefits Biden and should be good enough to give him a victory. If issues in the ME spread, there are continued issues between Israel and Palestine and nearing the election things still look bad over there, gas prices spike again, or there is a more general economic slow down, that's bad for Biden and likely tips things Trump's way IMO.) Edited March 6 by PeterMP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Ball Security said: I don’t think I’d necessarily say that a 30%+ decrease in Republican primary turnout from 2016 is a strong showing. Last time on Super Tuesday there were a ton of candidates available. this year it’s Trump and Haley who no one has really thought had a chance. I think PeterMP is right that trumps team should be happy with the results. I think trying to draw any other type of conclusion is silly. Edited March 6 by tshile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsmarydu Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Gas prices are already spiking, at least here in ATL (and we consistently have a lower average than the national). I don't drive much, so it's not impacting me as harshly as other citizens. And I don't care what anyone says, grocery prices are not coming down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 @Ball Security @PeterMP You two are literally just arguing the definition of the word "strong." If this is enjoyable for you, I'll go start a thread in the stadium asking whether or not CJ Stroud is "elite" and at least that will be about football. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ball Security Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 minutes ago, tshile said: Last time on Super Tuesday there were a tone of candidates available. this year it’s Trump and Haley who no one has really thought had a chance. I think PeterMP is right that trumps team should be happy with the results. I think trying to draw any other type of conclusion is silly. I guess I just don’t understand why they “should be happy” with it. I mean if there was any doubt he wouldn’t get the nomination, then yeah, I guess they should be happy. But, in my mind, his nomination was inevitable unless the SC had an unexpected ruling in the CO case. I don’t see this primary result speaking to anything about the general. 7 minutes ago, PeterMP said: @Ball Security What VA's primary tells me is that VA is blue, but even in an open primary there isn't enough anti-Trump support out there to turn VA to Haley. That's good news for Trump. (The GE is almost certainly going to be close. And how it goes will depend on this summer/early fall. If the economy stays strong and things are at least reasonably stable in the ME and with Israel and Palestine that benefits Biden and should be good enough to give him a victory. If issues in the ME spread, there are continued issues between Israel and Palestine and nearing the election things still look bad over there, gas prices spike again, or there is a more general economic slow down, that's bad for Biden and likely tips things Trump's way IMO.) All of that is true. I’d add that reproductive rights will also drive turnout. Especially in states like AZ, NV, and NC. 3 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: @Ball Security @PeterMP You two are literally just arguing the definition of the word "strong." If this is enjoyable for you, I'll go start a thread in the stadium asking whether or not CJ Stroud is "elite" and at least that will be about football. You make threats, but you won’t do it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 59 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said: Exactly. It's very similar to assuming that the 18-19% of Minnesota voters who chose "Uncommitted" are all not going to vote for Biden in November. Sure, a subset might stay home, a smaller subset might actually vote for Trump. But, most of those people will vote for Biden. That is the same on the Republican side (with different ratios). Some of those Haley voters will just not vote, some will vote for Biden, some might even vote for RFK or something...but many will vote for the Republican candidate. One is a protest vote, the other is a vote out of disgust of Donald Trump. Not the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 hours ago, Simmsy said: I know why the protest vote was high in Michigan...I have no idea whats going on in Minny. Do they also have a high Muslim population? Is that a protest vote as well? How come we didn't hear anything about it before hand or after? Minny will be concerning until we get some details on what happened and why he's pulling Oklahoma numbers. No real reason for the concern. There isn't a Democratic voter out there who thinks their vote in the primary will have any effect whatsoever on who ends up the nominee...so it's far easier to vote "uncommitted" as a mild form of protest. The mindset is significantly different when people know beyond doubt that how they vote effects the country and its government. Could be that some of those "uncommitted" voters simply wish someone else was running besides "grandpa Joe"...voting "uncommitted" is a safe way to voice that opinion. But once the reality is confirmed that either Biden or Trump will be the next president, the mindset of Dem voters will change drastically. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I'm still surprised this isn't a bigger story for people. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 24 minutes ago, Simmsy said: One is a protest vote, the other is a vote out of disgust of Donald Trump. Not the same thing. I think they are a lot closer to the same thing than you think...not in all cases, but in many of them. There are plenty of Republican voters who will vote Republican in the GE but were protesting Trump in the primaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 8 months till the election. Primaries are over per se. If the Biden campaign and supporting PACs aren't ready to get moving, I don't know what to say. Would start with the PACs putting out ads that only focus on Trump's failures as a President and Human. Don't even bother mentioning Biden for a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hail2skins Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 No need to remind anyone, but still infuriating that this guy is the GOP nominee and, as of now, the favorite to win in November https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/haley-raises-big-questions-about-january-6th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Trump, who repeatedly called Republican opponent Nikki Haley "Bird Brain" in social media posts, is now calling for unity in the GOP. Suck eggs, you orange turd. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins24 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 52 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said: I'm still surprised this isn't a bigger story for people. They did just find coke in the White House recently, which magically belonged to no one. I think this is one of the accepted but not talked about things in Washington politics. They're all high, all the time. 🫠 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said: I'm still surprised this isn't a bigger story for people. Maybe because it's old news and has been more than 3 days since this story came out. I posted about it in January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 21 minutes ago, China said: Maybe because it's old news and has been more than 3 days since this story came out. I posted about it in January: So are you saying that it was talked about a lot? Or just that you posted about it in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 minute ago, Califan007 The Constipated said: So are you saying that it was talked about a lot? Or just that you posted about it in January? I'm saying it's old news, and with today's news cycle it's not surprising nobody's talking about it now. But they didn't talk about it in January either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 (edited) 7 minutes ago, China said: I'm saying it's old news, and with today's news cycle it's not surprising nobody's talking about it now. But they didn't talk about it in January either. Ah, gotcha...For the record. the article he posted to came out 3 days ago, I assume it covers the same ground although I guess there could be new info. I'm also assuming you said "it's been more than 3 days since the story came out" just as a comment about (as you said) how quickly stories die in today's news cycle, and not because the article literally came out 3 days ago lol...just for clarity's sake. Edited March 6 by Califan007 The Constipated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spearfeather Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Quite a few here were saying Trump wouldn't debate Biden, and I remember thinking it was more likely the other way around, but we may find out for sure. Llhttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-will-debate-biden-anytime-rcna142140 Quote Former President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he will debate President Joe Biden "anytime, anywhere, anyplace" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Trump is gonna do the debate right after he unveils his big, beautiful healthcare plan. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 He’s gonna take the stand to clear his name, too!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 No way Trump's handlers let him debate, no way in Hell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Trump is not debating. Most likely he’ll claim whatever format or moderator is proposed is “rigged” but that will just be an excuse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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