2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Steen, Stromberg, Laporta likely will make my guys list among his list.  Roschon Johnson maybe. 

 

i like some other players on that list but they aren't pound the table for me.

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

An above average slot corner is an absolute need. A safety to replace Curl if he wants too much is a need. A buffalo nickle type is a need as well.

 

That's all Branch. That might be my top pick at 16 now.

Don't disagree. They are pressing straight CB and OT with bit of Edge and TE in all I read which to me, pushes the HYB/BN/DB possibly back. They may feel they can fill that and LB later easier than the other positions. Again, without all the holes I think we would be hearing a lot more Branch talk. Thing with him is, he could easily still be there after a trade back

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Unfortunately I have to think one of those in the 40's is earmarked for Rodgers

 

That's what made me think of it! Their front office apparently really wants a 1st for Rodgers, but Jets won't trade that. If they do the Rodgers trade, then package one of the Jet's 40's plus their own #45 for #16, that works too.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

6 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

That's what made me think of it! Their front office apparently really wants a 1st for Rodgers, but Jets won't trade that. If they do the Rodgers trade, then package one of the Jet's 40's plus their own #45 for #16, that works too.

I guess we could trade #16 for #42 and #43 … then they can trade #16 to the Packers for Rodgers. But my sense is the Packers would want to execute a trade before the draft and we’d probably want to wait to see who’s there at 16 before trading back. 
 

Of course if Rodgers is still a Packer come draft night, anything is on the table. 

[Est.1974]

18 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

If we were a team without the list of holes, Branch is a perfect fit!

I’m not convinced Rivera  thinks we have a list of holes. Branch really would be a good pick, but #16 is a bit rich IMO. Maybe 10-15 slots back from that. 

[DWinzit]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Steen, Stromberg, Laporta likely will make my guys list among his list.  Roschon Johnson maybe. 

 

i like some other players on that list but they aren't pound the table for me.

 

 

 

Laporta and Luepke are for sure on mine.

Heavy like for Henley, Brents, Sydney and Stromberg.

Leaning more recently on Steen...dislike if just a T but at G with ability to play T, now that's not how I initially was viewing him!

Huge fan of Johnson but question if he is fits what the team is looking for.

[Jumbo]

Thursday can't get here fast enough for me, and for more than one reason. 🙂

 

Looking forward to Thundercat, too. 😎

[Skinsinparadise]

26 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Branch at 16 would be a sneaky awesome pick for us.

 

AR is the only QB I'd draft this year TBH. And only if I didn't have to start him.

 

Branch would be great.  Not sure it would be sneaky awesome from a value stand point though.  But if they can't trade down, he'd be a good one.

 

You remember me over time more for Derwin James but I wanted Minkah Fitzpatrick even more than Derwin but I carped over the years about James because they passed over him in the draft.   Not the case with Fitzpatrick who was already gone. 

 

The year they took, Jamin Davis my top guy was Koramoah.

 

So I've been clamoring for a hybrid for years so I'd be jazzed about Branch.

 

But I disagree with some of the draft media who see Branch as head and shoulders over the next safety.  There are some who disagree with that.  I disagree, too,

 

Jartavius Martin who this team did a top 30 visit with is IMO really intriguing. 

 

Same type of player as Branch.    Better athlete than Branch.  Plays everywhere even outside corner.  Had 7 picks in his career.  Branch IMO is better by about half a peg because he is a better tackler and better at play recogntion.  But Martin is decent on those fronts, too.

 

I think he can be a sneaky pick at 47.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jumbo]

SIP is like the Bruce Lee of pasting multiple source Twitter, and other media, reports in a single post.

 

He's like the line in the song "Kung Fu Fighting", "their hands were fast as lightning."

 

[Chump Bailey]

33 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Steen, Stromberg, Laporta likely will make my guys list among his list.  Roschon Johnson maybe. 

 

i like some other players on that list but they aren't pound the table for me.

 

Agree, but I'm still meh about Roschon Johnson.

 

Charlie Jones (Firm knock)

Anthony Bradford (Pound, he's going a lot higher than most think IMO)

Ricky Stromberg (Firm knock)

KJ Henry (Firm knock)

Keanu Benton (Firm knock - the Ohio State LG I've talked about a lot but cannot remember his name funny enough right now handed Benton his @ss when they matched up) 

Dylan Hornton (Pound insane value)

Henley (Pound)

Brents (Firm knock)

Brown (Pound)

[Koolblue13]

Martin, Skinner and Branch would all be great gets if Curl prices himself out

 

40 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Defense fell off when Curl wasn't there. He's too versatile and helps us in too many different coverages for us to let him walk. He's the #1 FA priority in 2024, above Sweat. I don't know what his contract would look like, but I'd guess $14 million a year is reasonable for him.

That is a ton of money for a guy who isn't top 5.

[The Consigliere]

On 4/22/2023 at 12:18 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

Nice as dynasty and those underdog, draftkings, and other betting/playing platforms generate more money a ton of research has gone into this. 

 

From what I've seen, some key things:

RB: 40 under 4.65 or else. 3 cone is nice, but the better the 40, mixed with bmi/weight thresholds are fare more imporant.

 

WR: None of the metrics matter much beyond the speed being within that 4.65ish window, there are counter examples, but they're rare (Anquan Boldin and Keenan Allen who was hurt when he tested). Breakout age, market share type stuff is the biggest for them. I forget who did it, maybe Scott Barrett, but he found that you could run screenings and find that a bad bench press was better statistically than a good one for instance. Basically, the testing for WR's appears to be almost entirely noise, beyond some threshhold #'s. 

 

TE: 40 time and general athleticism are the only things that move the needle w/40 time being the biggest, it's kind of a lazy stat, but it is correlated. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Laporta and Luepke are for sure on mine.

Heavy like for Henley, Brents, Sydney and Stromberg.

Leaning more recently on Steen...dislike if just a T but at G with ability to play T, now that's not how I initially was viewing him!

Huge fan of Johnson but question if he is fits what the team is looking for.

 

I like Luepke.  He's a dude I brought up as soon as Bieineimy came on board.  But since I can't have 50 players on a my guys list.  I am working on that list today.  Tough for me to pare it down to 20.  It really should be though just 15, that's what I typically do, working on it.  

[skinny21]

5 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I’m not convinced Rivera  thinks we have a list of holes. Branch really would be a good pick, but #16 is a bit rich IMO. Maybe 10-15 slots back from that. 

I’m curious how they felt about St. Juste when he played in the slot.  I say that because if they far prefer him outside, that might be the one glaring hole on the roster*.  If they felt good about him there, he could move inside (whether full-time, or shifting inside situationally) with DJ, Holmes and a rookie competing on the outside.

 

*to be clear, we have other areas of concern/uncertainty - RT, TE, LB, etc. - but there’s at least potential and/or some capable players at those spots.

 

 

On a separate note, if we’re able to move back, I think Branch and Campbell are my two biggest targets, though Harrison, Dawand Jones (I’m a little sketched out on his character though), Forbes and Brents look like quality options.  I’m doubtful we land a big trade back… seems like a handful of spots with pick exchange seems more likely, but I don’t pretend to have a clue, lol.

 

Not a fan of going edge in the 1st, but worth noting that we could probably get that guy in for 50-70% of snaps as part of a rotation (and that’s if Sweat/Chase stay healthy), so it’s not just an insurance type of pick for next year…

[DWinzit]

8 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Martin, Skinner and Branch would all be great gets if Curl prices himself out

 

Skinner is my favorite "fun pick". I would love to let that guy roam, so much you could do with that freak

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like Luepke.  He's a dude I brought up as soon as Bieineimy came on board.  But since I can't have 50 players on a my guys list.  I am working on that list today.  Tough for me to pare it down to 20.  It really should be though just 15, that's what I typically do, working on it.  

There isn't a rule of 15 is there...

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Quan is my recent draft crush. Him and Mekhi Garner are two guys I'm really intrigued by in the 3rd-4th round range. In most simulations, Martin is going in the 70s-80s ... sometimes he falls to #97, but not a sure-thing (at least in the simulators).

 

Another reason I would love to trade back, add a 2 or a 3+4 ... having an earlier R3 pick is the sweet spot for him. Here's a mock I ran the other day:

 

*Traded 16 to JAX for 24 and 56

*Traded 24 and 189 to NO for 29 and 71

 

29: Anton Harrison, OT Oklahoma

47: John Michael Schmitz, C Minnesota

56: Jack Campbell, LB Iowa

71: Jartavius Martin, S/CB Illinois

97: Sam LaPorta, TE Iowa

118: Mekhi Garner, CB LSU

150: Ali Gaye, DE LSU

215: Noah Ruggles, K Ohio State

 

Would love to get Joey Slye's $3.5m off the books, hence the Ruggles pick.

 

Miss out on a RB but nothing an UDFA or post-draft signing can't take care of.

 

Anyway, loved the draft, and trading back and targeting Martin + Garner for the secondary allowed me to be aggressive on the OL early.

[Chump Bailey]

4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Quan is my recent draft crush. Him and Mekhi Garner are two guys I'm really intrigued by in the 3rd-4th round range.

 

Agree. Garner is being slept on IMO.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, Chump Bailey said:

 

Agree. Garner is being slept on IMO.

 

At least in the mock drafts. These are the type of players that you pencil in at a certain round in the simulators/mocks and then come draft weekend they go 1-2 rounds earlier, because teams are seeing things that some of us see/like/covet that maybe the "draft media" overlooks sometimes. It happens every year. Can go the opposite way too, of course. 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Quan is my recent draft crush. Him and Mekhi Garner are two guys I'm really intrigued by in the 3rd-4th round range. In most simulations, Martin is going in the 70s-80s ... sometimes he falls to #97, but not a sure-thing (at least in the simulators).

 

 

Quan seems all over the place in mocks.  Hard to call that one.   But IMO he's value is tremendous.  You can stick him anywhere in the secondary -- outside corner, slot.  High floor player.  Good ball skills.  I discovered him later in the process, watched him after hearing about his top 30 visit here.

 

He was litetally the hardest player for me to watch during the draft season.  It was the combination of them moving him around and illinois' jersey numbers are so hard to read -- I had to keep pausing the video to spot him. 

 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

 

There you go. Could be a player off the board in R2 and most people will go "WHO?" and then we'll be bummed he isn't there for us at pick #97 haha

[Skinsinparadise]

32 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

 

Nice as dynasty and those underdog, draftkings, and other betting/playing platforms generate more money a ton of research has gone into this. 

 

From what I've seen, some key things:

RB: 40 under 4.65 or else. 3 cone is nice, but the better the 40, mixed with bmi/weight thresholds are fare more imporant.

 

WR: None of the metrics matter much beyond the speed being within that 4.65ish window, there are counter examples, but they're rare (Anquan Boldin and Keenan Allen who was hurt when he tested). Breakout age, market share type stuff is the biggest for them. I forget who did it, maybe Scott Barrett, but he found that you could run screenings and find that a bad bench press was better statistically than a good one for instance. Basically, the testing for WR's appears to be almost entirely noise, beyond some threshhold #'s. 

 

TE: 40 time and general athleticism are the only things that move the needle w/40 time being the biggest, it's kind of a lazy stat, but it is correlated. 

 

When I post the stats for all these position, what I have in bold as to the categories at the top are the top 2 relevant metrics according to PFF as for NFL performance.  So for TE they had it as their 10 time and 3 cone.

 

I read a long article from PFF about the measurables that their stats indicate matter the most per position.  And they had a seperate article about which metrics determine draft status more -- but I ignored the draft status metrics.  I was much more interested in their takes as to correlation of what athletic traits translate to performance.

 

Obviously, there is much more to it than that.  But they seem to use a big data pool that indicated that those two metrics correlated the most to the better players at that position.

 

RB which you mention ironically had the same two metrics but in the reverse order of importance compared to TE. 

 

 

[DWinzit]

7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Quan is my recent draft crush. Him and Mekhi Garner are two guys I'm really intrigued by in the 3rd-4th round range. In most simulations, Martin is going in the 70s-80s ... sometimes he falls to #97, but not a sure-thing (at least in the simulators).

 

Another reason I would love to trade back, add a 2 or a 3+4 ... having an earlier R3 pick is the sweet spot for him. Here's a mock I ran the other day:

 

*Traded 16 to JAX for 24 and 56

*Traded 24 and 189 to NO for 29 and 71

 

29: Anton Harrison, OT Oklahoma

47: John Michael Schmitz, C Minnesota

56: Jack Campbell, LB Iowa

71: Jartavius Martin, S/CB Illinois

97: Sam LaPorta, TE Iowa

118: Mekhi Garner, CB LSU

150: Ali Gaye, DE LSU

215: Noah Ruggles, K Ohio State

 

Would love to get Joey Slye's $3.5m off the books, hence the Ruggles pick.

 

Miss out on a RB but nothing an UDFA or post-draft signing can't take care of.

 

Anyway, loved the draft, and trading back and targeting Martin + Garner for the secondary allowed me to be aggressive on the OL early.

Quans got game. unfortunately his name is all over the place now, no he makes day 3 and a good shot at not making out of round 2.

I think a lot of the picks you have are not realistic. the players will be off the board long beforehand but sure would love what you have there! 

 

Harrison isn't a talk about a ton here because he is really a one trick pony, a little raw LT. However, if you are drafting with the long term interests of this team in mind, he should heavily be considered at 16. My gut is they want PJJ, Darnell Wright or B Jones as they have the potential at multiple positions

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

42 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Martin, Skinner and Branch would all be great gets if Curl prices himself out

 

That is a ton of money for a guy who isn't top 5.

 

No it's not, safety prices are higher than you think. $14 million a year would tie him for 10th. Top 5 Safety money is $16-19 million.

 

For reference, Sweat would probably get $24 million a year.

[Darrell Green Fan]

My preference is OT, probably looking at Wright.  Sure they have made additions but they don't have one player on that OL that is considered really good.  They seem set on Wylie at RT but his strength is at guard.  If they can get a legit OT and move Wylie to guard they would actually have a pretty good OL, now it's merely serviceable.  

 

My 2nd choice would be Joey Porter Jr. which is also a real possibility.